LOWER THE EFFECT OF THE TRACK TAKE-OUT BY FINDING THE OVER-BET FAVORITE

[formula_2002]

LOWER THE EFFECT OF THE TRACK TAKE-OUT BY FINDING THE OVER-BET FAVORITE.

I have attached an excel table I use to determine the dutch bet results on all horses other than the favorite.
Based on the results of testing hundreds of out of sample horse racing data, I feel I can determine when the favorite is over bet.
If it’s sufficiently over bet, you could make a profit by dutching all the others horses in the race. Due to late changing odds, it’s almost impossible to properly dutch bet the remaining horses, but it turns out that the potential profit or loss of such a dutch play has the effect of lowering the track-take. The potential profit or loss becomes the take-out you are playing against
In one out of sample data set, the favorite returned an roi of .542 at average odds of 1.36-1. At that rate, playing at a 15% take track, a dutch play would have returned a profit of 1.7% At a 20% track, there is a loss of 5.6%.
In the attached “interactive table” just enter the win% and the average odd for the “15% take out” and the table will calculate the favorites roi and the profit or loss % for dutching all the remaining horses.
I will also automatically calculate the same for 16,17,18,19 and 20% tracks.

If I play at a 20% take-out track and find a race where the favorite conforms to all that tested data (this is, it’s over bet), I’m now playing into a pool with a 5.6% take-out…
Well, its not a bad place to start!!
Right?
Comments and or corrections are always welcomed.

[OverlayHunter]

The biggest underlay I've personally ever seen was Patchy Groundfog under Shoemaker for his last ride. I don't remember the field size but I'm guessing 10 or 11. As long as Patchy didn't win you could play all the others and profit. As I recall, he should have been maybe the 3rd or 4th choice but with all the sentimental money on The Shoe, he was a monstrous underlay. Shoemaker came in 3rd or 4th as I recall.

[Whirlaway]

Sounds like you should be grabbing that rebate at Pinnacle. I'd think that in theses cases just dutching the second and third favorites would provide a better return than dutching the whole field.

[CBedo]

Gotta figure that everyone wanted to keep their ticket, so if Patchy wins, noone cashes in their ticket. Not sure how "unclaimed money" works, but I'll bet after a certain time period, the state and the track get it.

[classhandicapper]

I think looking for general inefficiencies in the pools is a great place to start in a world of rebates.

[twindouble]

I think looking for general inefficiencies in the pools is a great place to start in a world of rebates.

Class, how about dragging me into the 21st century and explain what you mean by "inefficiencies in the pools". What does that have to do with handicapping a race, coming up with the horse or horses you like and just betting the suckers thinking you can make money? I said think because we don't win them all.

What do I do if an inefficiency crops up, toss my horses and bet something else or change my wagering strategy?



T.D.

[ryesteve]

What do I do if an inefficiency crops up, toss my horses
You talk as if this is an absurd idea. Let's say you like a horse that's 5-1 on the ML... you''re hoping to get that price, but would be happy to get 3-1. Instead, he's 3-5 (if you think this is a far-fetched example, just watch Retama any evening). So, according to your assessment of this race, the pool is grossly inefficient... are you telling me you'd still bet your horse at this price? Hopefully your answer is going to be that you'd toss him

[classhandicapper]

Class, how about dragging me into the 21st century and explain what you mean by "inefficiencies in the pools". What does that have to do with handicapping a race, coming up with the horse or horses you like and just betting the suckers thinking you can make money? I said think because we don't win them all.

What do I do if an inefficiency crops up, toss my horses and bet something else or change my wagering strategy? T.D.

Twin,

I'm going to answer this question without giving you specifics.

One way to win is to handicap a race, estimate a horses chances, and then bet him if his odds are are higher than they should be. That's the way many players approach the game.

Another way is to learn some of the general inefficiences in the pools.

One well known tendency is for the public to overbet very big longshots and underbet very big favorites.

Suppose you find a sub category among heavy favorites and that do even better than the broader group. If you do, you have already gone a long way towards breaking even and you haven't done a thing yet. Now let's say, instead of betting the horses to win you find that the public tends to bet daily doubles/exactas/PK 3s poorly when there's a favorite like that. Perhaps some combinations are overbet/underbet. You can make a further dent in the take betting in those other pools. Throw a rebate on top of that and you'll find yourself marginally profitable (or at least very close) with no handicapping at all. Now, if you bring any value to the table as a handicapper at all, you should be able to further isolate those favorites and add still more value via the exotics and be comfortably in the black.

If you find multiple things in a single race, it always gets more complex.

Right now, some of my betting is from pure handicapping and some is from sub categories of horses that tend to outperform the take upon which I try to add value via handicapping.

[Dave Schwartz]

OverlayHunter,

The biggest underlay I've personally ever seen was Patchy Groundfog under Shoemaker for his last ride. I don't remember the field size but I'm guessing 10 or 11. As long as Patchy didn't win you could play all the others and profit. As I recall, he should have been maybe the 3rd or 4th choice but with all the sentimental money on The Shoe, he was a monstrous underlay. Shoemaker came in 3rd or 4th as I recall.

LOL - He ran exactly 4th after standing up on his mount in the final strides when he saw he was beaten for the win.

I have a long story that goes with this but suffice it to say that I had a wager on him to show in that race. <G>


Dave

[twindouble]

You talk as if this is an absurd idea. Let's say you like a horse that's 5-1 on the ML... you''re hoping to get that price, but would be happy to get 3-1. Instead, he's 3-5 (if you think this is a far-fetched example, just watch Retama any evening). So, according to your assessment of this race, the pool is grossly inefficient... are you telling me you'd still bet your horse at this price? Hopefully your answer is going to be that you'd toss him

ryesteve; I'm more perplexed than attempting to be "absurd". It's my nature to cut through the chase so I understand why you took it that way. No problem.

In racing there's a lot different arguments anyone can make to prove a point, I don't like doing that. The very nature of the public, and the tote cause swings in different directions, my thinking is more decisive. I don't like being a yo-yo in this game.

To answer your question, if I think that 3-5 can win the race, I'll use him somewhere in the pools in an attempt to make money. I see nothing wrong in taking down a $20 to $40 exacta many times providing the others I like have some value. Yes, if I think I can't make money by risking to much, I'll just pass.


T.D.

[DJofSD]

I have a long story that goes with this but ...

Go for it! Do tell!

[ryesteve]

Yes, if I think I can't make money by risking to much, I'll just pass.
Cool, then I think we're on the same page...