Scott Lake has been studying Godolphin

[DrugSalvastore]

I've yet to actually look at the past performances for this race, but, in what might possibly be one of the years most lopsided mismatches on paper, Outcashem has been entered in a starter allowance race with a $14,000 purse going four furlongs at Timonium on Wednesday.

He's only 2/5 on the morning line.

This horse has won 15 of 16 starts since being claimed by Scott Lake, including eight stake races. He even posted a 114 Beyer earlier in the year, just one point off the years best sprint Beyer.

I've watched all of his wins...and if not for the tragic demise of out-of-state replays at www.calracing.com (http://www.calracing.com) ---I would suggest you guys do the same. He's won about 12 of those 15 races with almost no urging at all. Which is much harder to do in short sprint races.

In his last start, he quickly disposed of an early challenge from Caller One (who came back to run 2nd at dougle digit odds at Saratoga) and stylishly captured a 4.5 furlong stake at Mountaineer on MNR Derby day.

Except for Discreet Cat VS Bernardini, the race I'd most look forward to seeing is a 4.5 furlong sprint race between Outcashem and Afrashad.

One of them has won 15 of 16 in these short sprints and the other has possibly the most explosive 2-year-old in training workout in sales history. Assuming Afrashad doesn't come walking out of the gate, it would be an all-out war.

I'm sure Godolphin wants no part of the match race. However, they must surely be appluading Scott Lake's placement of Outcashem. Why run for MUCH more money and win convincingly...when you can run for peanuts and win even easier!

[cj]

Set your goals low to avoid disappointment? I don't get it either.

[Show Me the Wire]

Guys own a horse and you will. Horses are investments and they are perishable commodities. Every taxing race takes freshness away from these commodities and there is nothing wrong with making easy money without depleting too much from the perishable commoditiy's limited lifetime usefullness.

Unless the connections are in it for the ego there is no reason to make the task of earning money from your investment more difficult than it has to be. Winning two easy starter allowance races is easier than winning one race with a purse equal to the combined value of the two races. It is easier on the horse so right there that can't be bad.

[kenwoodallpromos]

1 month break after bigger races, 2 weeks after smaller; only 1 "NW" race;
in the last 10 races, average field size 5.3.

[DrugSalvastore]

Unless the connections are in it for the ego there is no reason to make the task of earning money from your investment more difficult than it has to be.

Yes, Lava Man should have passed up the three $1,000,000 Southern Cal handicap races he swept this season....and should have instead been pointed to a series of starter allowance races he's still elidigble for. Because, as you know, it's easier to win a starter allowance than a $1,000,000 stake!

It's not like Outcashem cant stay, he actually won a two-turn race during his streak of 15 wins in his last 16.

It's not like he can't handle stakes caliber horses...he's won 8 stakes over that span.

The idea of putting this horse on a van and shipping him for a race with a $14,000 purse just seems silly. I know someone will say "I'd like to own a horse that earns $8,000 for a four furlong workout."

Imagine if this horse had won 16 in a row, instead of just 15 out of his last 16. He would be trying to surpass the record held jointly by Citation, Cigar, Mister Frisky, and Hallowed Dreams (who all won 16 in a row and lost while going for #17) in a starter allowance at the Timonium Fair!

This is a serious sprinter.

By the way, if Discreet Cat wins the King's Bishop (he need only have entered to do so) his stud value would have soared! He's worth a very conservative $30,000,000 with a North American Grade 1 win.

You have to remember, Coolmore paid $16,000,000 for a 2-year-old son of Forestry named The Green Monkey. Discreet Cat is by the same sire as The Green Monkey. He has a MUCH classier female family than The Green Monkey. DC's dam is a Grade 1 winner, he's a half sibling to a multiple Grade 1 placed horse, and he's closely related to Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval and Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold through his tail-female family. The Green Monkey's female family is dog-food compared to his.

[the_fat_man]

I've watched all of his wins...and if not for the tragic demise of out-of-state replays at www.calracing.com (http://www.calracing.com) ---I would suggest you guys do the same.

We can't get the replay (with headons) of the (local) 9th race (or last race) on the NYC OTB channel --we absolutely must rush off to the simulcasting-- and you want full replays, free online?

What do think, this is Hong Kong?

[Show Me the Wire]

DrugSalvastore:

Lava Man was a $50,000 purchase for his current connections? They bought him (invested in him) with the idea he could win in stakes company and their investment worked.

With the commodity's limited life span we do not know how much is left, but I venture to guess Lake has a pretty good idea. I reiterate these animals are investments in perishable commodities and they have a limited useful life. The more difficult the races the shorter the limited life span.

Your alluding to the record of Citation, etc. is about ego and not investment and return. I addressed that issue already.

Nothing wrong in picking up easy money while protecting the limited usefull life of a perishable commodity.

[Show Me the Wire]

DrugSalvastore

By the way, if Discreet Cat wins the King's Bishop (he need only have entered to do so) his stud value would have soared! He's worth a very conservative $30,000,000 with a North American Grade 1 win.

You have to remember, Coolmore paid $16,000,000 for a 2-year-old son of Forestry named The Green Monkey. Discreet Cat is by the same sire as The Green Monkey. He has a MUCH classier female family than The Green Monkey. DC's dam is a Grade 1 winner, he's a half sibling to a multiple Grade 1 placed horse, and he's closely related to Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval and Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold through his tail-female family. The Green Monkey's female family is dog-food compared to his.

I have suspicion that Discreet Cat is not very sound.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Outchasem= GELDING! Race him like hell, ship him to hell and back, run him hell bent for leather, when his career is over, to hell with him.

[JWBurnie]

Outchasem= GELDING! Race him like hell, ship him to hell and back, run him hell bent for leather, when his career is over, to hell with him.

You shouldn't be allowed to play this game.

[saratoga guy]

Where exactly would this guy go to test "deeper water"? His specialty seems to be 4.5 furlongs -- where else are they offering those kinds of races? Particularly with a $100k purse like he won two back.

They tried a $75K stake at Laurel last year and the horse faded behind Abbondanza -- a nice second-string stakes level runner.

[betovernetcapper]

Looked over the race and Outcashems major (only) threat in this race is his entry mate Wry Humor. Considering the $14000 purse, I wonder why they nominated both.

[cj]

The horse finished first today, but was DQed to 3rd. Someone obviously jumped the bridge again. Even without show betting, the winner paid 14.80 to win, 38.40 to place. The second place finisher paid 36.40 to place.

I have got to find this replay. Shades of Mnr last week?

[Show Me the Wire]

Would the place pool have been negative outcashems runs first or second? If so another lesson in bridge jumping into negative pools. Not a good idea.

[cj]

If Outcashem runs 1 or 2, the place price is 2.10. You would be foolish not to bet against the big horse every time presented with this situation.

[ponyplayerdotca]

http://newdata.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?filename=TIM0830020 .pdf

There's the pdf chart of the race.

OUTCASHEM was DQ'd from 1st to 3rd for "causing interference leaving the gate".

Is Acosta his regular rider? 1-9 odds. Yikes!

There were 3 scratches, including his stablemate, Wry Humor.

Easy way to discourage (or prevent) owners/trainers from being able to enter (and ultimately ruin) low purse races like this is easy.

Have the secretary write an additional race condition like "for horses that have run a minimum of 3 times over this track in 2006" or "have won so much $ at this track in 2006".

That way it would give the locals a chance to run for some decent money once in a while, and prevent the outsiders from swooping in to steal the purse.

[Show Me the Wire]

I think the proposed restrictive condition is implied at MNR , especially when faced with negative pools and most certainly at fairs. So why not make it an offical condition? Good idea.

[kenwoodallpromos]

5lbs added weight for each starter race won in the past calendar year.