Box Shoes or Square Shoes?

[JustMissed]

Calder Race 8 today. I had the #8 horse in the third slot. Before post time they showed on the simulcast screen that he was wearing box shoes which I really wasn't sure if they were the same as square shoes. Anyway, I left him in and he finished first paying $12.80 to win.

Does anyone know if these two shoes are the same and are they usually considered a negative.

Thanks,

JustMissed

P.S. Karlskorner-If you read this I had the #4 horse in the 6th that paid $42.40 to win. If I had bet more than $2 on him I would have immediately gone home. Hope you had at least a hundred on him.

[karlskorner]

I think you mean "block heels". The #8 horse in the 8th at CRC was wearing "block heels". On the open ends of the shoe there are raised 1" square blocks as an assistance to grab. I hope you noticed "owner/trainer", which was one of the reasons I used him along with the breeding (Whitney Tower). I mentioned on another post, couple of days ago, about a horse I caught that was wearing "block heels"

I did not play the 6th race as there were 5 FTS including the #4 that won. Excellent choice on your part. I didn't pay to much attention to the race, but now I notice "reasons" you used to wager on him, good breeding, but most important and overlooked by all, BREEDER/OWNER/TRAINER (that's gold). I am delighted that you are watching the "shoe board" on simulcast and maybe we can get some others to do the same.

Karl

[JustMissed]

Great info. I can assume block heels are not a negative and I will look out for that in the future. O/T with same jock and block heels-great pick on your part. I had him 3rd in the trifecta.

As far as the 6th race-you read my mind. The Sire AWD was 7.3 and Dam Sire's was 6.6, B/O/T. I used to pass the FTS races but now I play them for testing with small bets. The breeding is working pretty good but I have also hit some by just simply adding the jockey & trainers win percentage together and going with highest with breeding as the wild card.

Anyway, thanks for your help. Hope you have a great day.

JustMissed
:)

[karlskorner]

Actually CRC show's 2 shoe boards, 1 with 27 different type of shoes and 2 Pads, more for the curious than anything else, lately though I have noticed horses shod with Pads.

The main board, which is changed prior to each race shows 5 type of shoes. Plain, Sticker, Block Heels, Bends and Bar Shoes. These are your basic shoe changes. A couple of Joe Takach's articles describe the reasons for using Bar Shoes, none of the reasons are positive. You have to remember one thing, the Blacksmith doesn't come cheap, there has to be a good reason for the Trainer to change from Plain. Just part of the puzzle.

Karl

[JustMissed]

Thanks for info. Yeah Joe talks quite a bit about bar shoes and covered frogs. I'm almost certain he mentioned square shoes but I'll have to go back and look.

I really like the way Calder shows the shoes, as well as the paddock, parade and warm-ups. I still do my intense pp handicapping but since I have added the physicality handicapping to the pencil pushing it had made a world of difference in my play.

My son and I can hardly wait til live racing starts back in Tampa in December. We're going to be at the paddock every race just like you and Joe.

Have a great weekend.

JustMissed
:)

[karlskorner]

That's Gold.

CRC 5th race, #8, "Breeder/Owner/Trainer", paid $41.20
Happy Alter was a Trainer of Boxers before he came to racing. He can train Man or Beast. He ususlly "pops" this time of the year.
Check his record for the past 10 days.

CRC 12th race. #3, "Breeder/Owner/Trainer", paid $74.60
Stanley Ersoff is a former Attorney, owns everything he trains, Dangerous when ignored.

Karl

[karlskorner]

I quickly went over the charts for CRC for the past 5 days, this is the result for just "individuals", I didn't bother looking up business or farm names. Either Breeder/owner/trainers or Owner/Trainers or Breeder/owner.

9/15 race 5 $41.20 (Happy Alter I spoke of above) 6th $10.60, 7th $11.00, 8th $19.40, 10th $27.80 (Happy Alter again) 12th $74.60 (above)

9/13 4th race $12.00, 6th $76.60, 9th $11.40

9/12 2nd race $22.60, 4th $6.40, 6th $42.40, 8th $12.80

9/9 3rd race $8.60, 4th $16.40, 5th $4.00 (Alter again) 8th $15.40

9.8 5th race $14.00, 7th $25.40, 8th $11.00, 9th $25.20, 12th $9.80.

Interesting, isn't it

Karl

[karlskorner]

Let's take a 10 race card and assume there are 2 B/O/T's in every race (never seen it happen, 3-4-5 races maybe, but never 10)

Let's make it hard, 10 race card, 2 Breeder/Owner/Trainer in every race and you "dutch" and play $4.00 a race or $40.00 for the day, for a 5 days straight, you invested $200.00, adding the above in my head you earned $498.00 or a profit of $298.00. In the "old math" of figuring, your ROI is about 150%.

That's playing every race at a single track, for 5 straight days. remember I just took the last 5 days, I didn't pick and choose. Anybody out there own a COMPUTER PROGRAM that can produce 150% ROI playing every race ?

Karl

[Handle]

Karl,

I don't have a computer program that will produce a 150% ROI playing every race. However, I do have one that will tell me how well Owner/Trainers fair in a given type of race.

I have to say, I've never been pleased with the results "en masse".

For example, in the last 3000 races across the lands:

There have been 2605 races with owner/trainer horses.
There have been 6871 owner/trainer starters in these races -- that makes it particulary difficult indeed.

Of these starters, 10.29% won, 22.02% placed, and 34.19% showed. The ROI is -29.34% for playing every owner/trainer horse to win.

Given these figures, the percentage of winning RACES is quite a bit higher. But that begs the question -- which owner/trainer horse do you play in a race that, on average, has 2.64 of them?

I'm not saying that owner/trainer, or owner/trainer/breeder, isn't worth considering -- but, and you know this better than most, one has to know quite a bit more about that owner/trainer than just the fact that its an owner/trainer alone.

BTW -- CRC owner/trainer stats:
996 races, 820 had owner/trainer horses, there were 1717 owner/trainer starts.
Win: 11.94%, Place 23.88%, Show: 35.06%, ROI: -25.25%

In September, up to the 14th, at CRC:
94 races, 74 with owner/trainers, 145 owner trainer starters.
win: 13.1%, place: 22.76%, show: 33.79%, ROI: + 18.21

Play my program's version of "Best Speed" and get:
94 races, 100 starts, win: 29%, Place: 47%, Show: 58%, ROI: +63.8%.


-Nathan

[GameTheory]

I would agree owner/trainer/breeder is something to look out for, but the problem is that it is a static piece of data. The horse has the same owner/trainer/breeder even time he runs, and he can't win every race just because of it.

So owner/trainer/breeder means what? It means he probably runs the horse when he feels it is right, and the horse is sound, and he doesn't have to put up with outside pressure. That's good.

On the other hand, Handle's ROI of nearly -30% is pretty dismal. I would like to see that broken down into groups by the overall win% of the trainers, or look at moves like switching to a jockey that's won on the horse before, etc...

[John]

Handle / Nathan

Where does one go to find your program on "best speed."

[karlskorner]

I didn't mean to imply that anyone's program was bad, in fact, I read nothing but "good" about yours.

It's your words "across the land" and the stats to back it up that I cannot agree with. 95% of the members of this board are using the "shotgun" method of handicapping. When it comes to "stats" they are all foreign to me. All I did was choose one track, reviewed the past 5 "live" days of racing and came up with approx. 150% ROI for B/O/T's, playing all the races (50)

Maybe I have the advantage by playing only 1 track, knowing who to play, when to play and how to play. Today is "another" day at CRC. 105 horses entered (before scratches) of which 20 are FTS (bad day, won't see too much of my moniey). There are 26 Breeder/Owner/Trainers, which means in theory I should be wagering $52.00. Personally I doubt if I would wager on all 26 BOT's because of personal knowledge. Let's see what happens.

Someday I will open a discussion again on "Key Race" horses and we will see where the real "hidden" money is in racing.

Karl

[JimG]

Originally posted by karlskorner


Someday I will open a discussion again on "Key Race" horses and we will see where the real "hidden" money is in racing.

Karl

I'm looking forward to that.

[karlskorner]

Several months back we had a discussion on "key race" horses, I have no idea to tell you how to find it (as a non-computer person it took me a year to find out I had private messages). Maybe somebody can help you.

Meanwhile think about this, I have read numerous times "The fastest horse doesn't always win the race" (or something to that effect). But it DID. According to stats and data (old news) about yesterdays races certain hores should not win the race. The fastest horse in todays race Won.

Karl

[Handle]

Rocajack,

EquiSim's Profiler determines the "abilities" each horse has in a race. That's what I meant by "my version" of best speed -- "best speed" is an ability. Profiler generates statistics for each ability on in any given type of race. One of the other abilities is "owner/trainer".

http:://www.thorotech.com (www.thorotech.com)

Karl,

Yes, we have to return to key races some time. I'm still where I was before on them when I got hit with 20 bazillion things to do.

Stats are stats, nothing more or less. From them its obvious that the O/T angle was performing exceptionally above par at CRC this month.

One thing though -- what constitutes an owner trainer? If the owner is "Maria Fede & Marblecreek Stable" and the trainer is "Pietro Fede", is that an Owner/Trainer? In my analysis it is, But perhaps even breaking this particular aspect down further would yield richer rewards(?)

-Nathan

[karlskorner]

For reasons known only to themselves certain Trainers will put the animal in wife's name or brother or mother etc. I consider this all "one family" It's his charge and he is going to do right for himself or member of his family. This is the easy part.

The hard part is Breeder/Owner. Today's 2nd at CRC is a good example, the owner is listed as J. Cajamarca, the Breeder as Newchance Farm, I happen to know they are one and the same. Paid $127.20. These are the ones you keep in your head or on paper.

Today was not the best of days at CRC. 22 scratches, 2 races off the grass, 5 B/O/T's not running. The 4th race O/T $6.00, the 6th race O/B $11.00 and the 10th O/T $10.40.

Karl

[Tom]

Geez, here I am making variants, doing pace figures, trying to make out who is in form and who is not, and here you guys are talking about owner/trainer/breeders. And we are both winning.
Isn't this a great game?
:eek: