Discreet Beyer

[cj]

Discreet Cat 112.

Bernardini 116.

Henny Hughes 108.

[cj]

Bump, edited in the new Beyers.

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks for the #s....Bernardini is a freakin' monster....period....

[delayjf]

What was the pace number. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Point
Givens Travers speed figure higher?

[cj]

I think PGs Travers figure was higher. I am positive Medaglia D'Oro's was as well.

I'll be doing the NYRA figures on Wednesday, and I'll post the pace/speed figures here.

[the_fat_man]

Thanks for the #s....Bernardini is a freakin' monster....period....

At the point where you think he's better than Barbaro yet, Boss?

[classhandicapper]

I think PGs Travers figure was higher. I am positive Medaglia D'Oro's was as well.

I'll be doing the NYRA figures on Wednesday, and I'll post the pace/speed figures here.

I can't remember which race it was, but MDO had one wire to wire win up there where he earned a monster figure that was extremely biased aided.

[cj]

Actually, upon further reflection, he may have run the giant figure in the Jim Dandy. He narrowly beat Repent in the Travers, so I doubt it was as big.

[Tee]

Actually, upon further reflection, he may have run the giant figure in the Jim Dandy. He narrowly beat Repent in the Travers, so I doubt it was as big.

The Jim Dandy was the big figure with a 120.

The Travers a mere 113 :)

[delayjf]

Medaglia D'Oro

This horse had a lot of bad luck seemly always meeting other horses on their absolute best days.

Volponi - 2002 Breeders Cup

Candy Ride - 2003 Pacific Classic

Pleasently Perfect - 2003 Breeders Cup.

He was this close.......

[cj]

Yep Tee, you are right. I was thinking of my figures:


Sar 08/24 10.0 Travers G1 113 122 113 122| 121*
Sar 08/04 9.0 JimDandy G2 117 119 117 119| 121*

[PaceAdvantage]

At the point where you think he's better than Barbaro yet, Boss?

I don't really see how you can compare the two....they both beat Bluegrass Cat by similar margins going 10 furlongs, so I'll call them tied in my book.

Barbaro got hurt and had to stop running....we have no clue how good he might be right now, had fate allowed him to develop throughout the year instead of stopping him cold on his ascent....

[bigmack]

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/28/sports/othersports/28racing.html?_r=1&ref=sports&oref=login

If you're not registered with the Times use: timespell timespell

[PaceAdvantage]

What the hell did Ward mean with this comment?

“Bernardini is definitely my choice to be a champion,” said John T. Ward Jr., the trainer for the third-place finisher in the Travers, Dr. Pleasure. “He didn’t have it his own way. He took on Bluegrass Cat and put him away and he said goodbye to the rest of them.”

Didn't have it his own way? I'd say going wire to wire in his last two races is basically having it his own way, wouldn't you? Is he trying to say that Barbaro had things his own way in the Derby? Give me a break....

[JustRalph]

What the hell did Ward mean with this comment?



Didn't have it his own way? I'd say going wire to wire in his last two races is basically having it his own way, wouldn't you? Is he trying to say that Barbaro had things his own way in the Derby? Give me a break....

I think he did have it his own way. But Ward may be speaking of the first quarter where Bernardini went to the lead on what appeared to be his own. I think there was a plan by some other horses to maybe go with him...the 4 horse? ...and he put them away on his own, without urging. which is really what impressed me.

[Tom]

Dittos, Ralph - the first quarter was the most impressive. When you draw away late, you are putting away beaten horses. When you do it that early, you are taking it to them.

[delayjf]

I would agree with you except I didn't really see anybody trying to really challenge him early. My impression was that once he got the lead, everybody seemed content with their position, possible thinking their best chance was to let him burn himself out, obviously that didn't happen. Yes, he asserted himself, but any horse in that field could run the opening quarter faster than 23 and change.

[Tom]

Hey Jeff,
I was looking at his "move" bnot long after the start - well befreo the first turn. when he was inside two horses - just bulled out and never looked back.

[DrugSalvastore]

I personally think Discreet Cat's Beyer is a few points lower than it should be. I'll blame that on the incompetence of a equibase employee and not the figure maker for that.

Barbaro was cut out to be one of the great turf horses in a long time. I still insist he was a better turf horse. If he has a stud career, don't be surprised if his offspring peform better on the lawn.

Bernardini is the better dirt horse of the two.

Discreet Cat probably has more pure talent than both of them. He's a horse who can compete with anything in the country from any distance ranging from 5 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. Though he's never tried it, he's also bred to handle turf.

Bright One is also a very dangerous 3-year-old. He has the kind of raw speed that would put him in front of Bernardini early on, and he really looks to have fantastic stamina. He reminds me a little of Tiznow before Tiznow broke out in the Super Derby. He still does need to improve his figures to put himself with the elites. But, he's very lightly raced, and there is no reason to think his numbers won't edge forward.

Sweetnorthernsaint is the horse from this crop people shouldn't forget about. He had a monumentally bad trip as the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby. In the Preakness, he grabbed a quarter coming out of the gate, got jumped on very early by Brother Derek (who was on a Kamikaze mission) as they headed out of the first turn in the Preakness. SNS was beaten just five lengths to Bernardini..and Bernardini had the MUCH better trip of the two. The figure for that race came back 118, but was cut loose and shaved to a 113.

SNS hasn't had a workout since that race, but I guess they say his foot has healed from the starting gate incident. He will be tough when he comes back.

[rastajenk]

I personally think Discreet Cat's Beyer is a few points lower than it should be. I'll blame that on the incompetence of a equibase employee and not the figure maker for that
What is this supposed to refer to?

[cj]

What is this supposed to refer to?

One of the maiden races had the final time reported incorrectly. If you watch the replay, then check the charts, you will see the discrepancy in the times.

I'm not so sure this would have such a big influence in making the variant for the day. I wouldn't think races for lightly raced 2yos would be much of a factor in making the variant, but it is possible.

[DrugSalvastore]

The offical time for the 2nd race (one of the days three sprint races) is flat out WRONG!

It was timed on the TV in 58.99. Well, whoever did the work on the offical chart typed in 58.19 as the final time.

The fractions posted in the offical chart suggest that the final 1/8th was run in 12.07 seconds. That is with two horses closing sharply into in. No one with any ****** common sense could believe that a pair of debuting NY Bred 2-year-old's could both run 11 and change final 1/8ths, in losing efforts.

I have a stopwatch with me in my apartment here---I mainly use it for timing how long horses are hooked in mid-race battles...anyway, I've hand-timed races before, and being so skeptical of the offical final time posted in the chart, I decide to hand time it. Now, five furlong races are among the easiest to hand-time. It's not like trying to get a seven furlong race out of a chute with a tricky angle.

Anyway, the first time I get 59.03 seconds. So, I time it again....59.00 seconds. Now, the race tracks timer has the race in 58.99. I hand time the race twice, and I'm 0.01 seconds and 0.04 seconds off the clockers time.

So, now I try to get the fastest possible time I can get. I wait until I see the leader actually pass the 5/8ths pole with my eye to start my stopwatch. And I stop my watch when I see the eventual winner draw even with the 2nd place finisher in the final few yards before the wire. In other words, I started the watch too late, and stopped the watch too soon, in order to get the fastest possible clocking I could get. Even than, I'm like 0.32 seconds slower than the time posted.

In other words, I know with 1000% certainty that the offical final time of 58.19 is wrong. The correct final time is the 58.99 that was clocked at the track. Someone at Equibase typed in the wrong time.

Now, figure makers use final time from the offical charts to do there figures.

Mark Hopkins does the NYRA Beyer figures. He cut this race loose from the rest of the card because the time of 58.19 looked to fast to believe to him. The whole field would have run suspicously fast. He ended up giving the winner a figure of 75. If the winner ran a 75, and the correct final time is posted in the chart, Discreet Cat runs a 117 Beyer. DC's figure also matches up well with the first race, won emphatically by a Dutrow dropper adding blinkers, and making it's first NY start over the dirt for this trainer.

I personally think that Discreet Cat's 112 is a few points low, and that an error by an Equibase employee hurt his chances of getting a serious Beyer that justified his performance. That's only my opinion....what is FACT is that the final time in the offical chart for Friday's 2nd race is flat out WRONG.

[DrugSalvastore]

As often the case...

CJ was clear and to the point.

While I was confusing and rambling.

[Tom]

Great posts, CJ, being concise, and Drugs, entertaining as all hell!:jump:
don't you just love people who have the balls to charge $100 a month for charts, then put 3 cents worth of quality in to making them?
As you guys are uncovering bogus time in this thread, we are finding major flaws in turf rail placement in another.
Boy, I love buying GOOD ACCURATE data.

Poker, what .com, .net???? :mad::mad:

[classhandicapper]

Drug,

If Hopkins cut the race loose, he could very well know the time was wrong also. I'd bet almost anything someone at the track (or watching at home) scribbles down the final times/fractions somewhere else also. Had he not cut it loose, I think we would have some more valuable information about those maidens and Discreet Cat.

[Tom]

When I used to go to the track regularly ( in the dark ages!) I always wrote doen the times as the race was being run. I'd find differences three minutes later - when the final results were posted. And I found a lot of errors later in the PPs. And I only went on weekends.

[the_fat_man]

The offical time for the 2nd race (one of the days three sprint races) is flat out WRONG!

It was timed on the TV in 58.99. Well, whoever did the work on the offical chart typed in 58.19 as the final time.

The fractions posted in the offical chart suggest that the final 1/8th was run in 12.07 seconds. That is with two horses closing sharply into in. No one with any ****** common sense could believe that a pair of debuting NY Bred 2-year-old's could both run 11 and change final 1/8ths, in losing efforts.

I have a stopwatch with me in my apartment here---I mainly use it for timing how long horses are hooked in mid-race battles...anyway, I've hand-timed races before, and being so skeptical of the offical final time posted in the chart, I decide to hand time it. Now, five furlong races are among the easiest to hand-time. It's not like trying to get a seven furlong race out of a chute with a tricky angle.

Anyway, the first time I get 59.03 seconds. So, I time it again....59.00 seconds. Now, the race tracks timer has the race in 58.99. I hand time the race twice, and I'm 0.01 seconds and 0.04 seconds off the clockers time.

So, now I try to get the fastest possible time I can get. I wait until I see the leader actually pass the 5/8ths pole with my eye to start my stopwatch. And I stop my watch when I see the eventual winner draw even with the 2nd place finisher in the final few yards before the wire. In other words, I started the watch too late, and stopped the watch too soon, in order to get the fastest possible clocking I could get. Even than, I'm like 0.32 seconds slower than the time posted.

In other words, I know with 1000% certainty that the offical final time of 58.19 is wrong. The correct final time is the 58.99 that was clocked at the track. Someone at Equibase typed in the wrong time.

Now, figure makers use final time from the offical charts to do there figures.

Mark Hopkins does the NYRA Beyer figures. He cut this race loose from the rest of the card because the time of 58.19 looked to fast to believe to him. The whole field would have run suspicously fast. He ended up giving the winner a figure of 75. If the winner ran a 75, and the correct final time is posted in the chart, Discreet Cat runs a 117 Beyer. DC's figure also matches up well with the first race, won emphatically by a Dutrow dropper adding blinkers, and making it's first NY start over the dirt for this trainer.

I personally think that Discreet Cat's 112 is a few points low, and that an error by an Equibase employee hurt his chances of getting a serious Beyer that justified his performance. That's only my opinion....what is FACT is that the final time in the offical chart for Friday's 2nd race is flat out WRONG.

The angst of the figure maker/follower.

DrugS, I applaud your efforts (I'd impressed that you're at home timing races, rather than accepting the splits posted on the screen --which are the same splits posted at the track)

I wonder, however, why DC "getting a serious Beyer that justified his performance" is so important to you.

I've replayed the race a few times (not the headons, unfortunately) and
with each viewing I remain as impressed as the initial viewing by DC's performance. It was a monster effort and he clearly would've layed over the KBishop field. (I haven't decided yet what's more annoying: the connections not running DC in the KB or the connections putting out the BS that the horse needed a race.)

Isn't that enough for you?

I ride track bikes and the NJS stamp signifies the top of the line in equipment. So anyone riding track bikes, seriously or otherwise, covets NJS components. Thus, I can identify with the prestige of earning a HIGH BEYER NUMBER. I really can. (See my $300 NJS hubs; or the $1300 custom built Japanese frame I'm in the process of having built)

I can't begin to imagine how many hours a week you put into the game. Clearly, you put more time into the history of the game (and timing races) than most devote to the entire process of handicapping.

Man, once you actually FOCUS, you'll be unstoppable (and Beyer numbers, 'serious' or otherwise, might not mean as much).

:ThmbUp:

[skate]

I don't really see how you can compare the two....they both beat Bluegrass Cat by similar margins going 10 furlongs, so I'll call them tied in my book.

Barbaro got hurt and had to stop running....we have no clue how good he might be right now, had fate allowed him to develop throughout the year instead of stopping him cold on his ascent....


so the fact that BG shows being injured against Berni..., no problem?

[PaceAdvantage]

so the fact that BG shows being injured against Berni..., no problem?

The problem with this statement is that nobody is sure when BG suffered his injury. The connections themselves have no idea when he might have hurt himself, and watching the race, it does not appear at any point that BG is running on three legs. As some have alluded to on this very board, this could be a phantom injury for all we know, allowing him to bow out gracefully at a point where his connections know full well he's probably not going to win another major race this year, 100% sound or not.

Bottom line - I don't know how to answer your question.

[twindouble]

[QUOTE=the_fat_man]

I ride track bikes and the NJS stamp signifies the top of the line in equipment. So anyone riding track bikes, seriously or otherwise, covets NJS components. Thus, I can identify with the prestige of earning a HIGH BEYER NUMBER. I really can. (See my $300 NJS hubs; or the $1300 custom built Japanese frame I'm in the process of having built)

Now I'm suposed to believe you ride track bikes. :bang: Is that why you jerk everone's chain?


T.D.

[rastajenk]

Thanks, cj and salve, for the explanation. It does prompt a next question, though, which is along the lines of fatman's observation. Does this error dramatically alter Discreet Cat's Beyer, either the one posted in the Form or the one you've created, and how does it change your opinion of him?

It looks to me that the four fifths difference between the real and the published time, averaged over the three 7f races used to determine a variant, is going to skew the variant only one position on the Beyer chart, so unless you're awarding 5 points for every fifth-second, I don't see how you could get to 117 from 112.

But more importantly, how does this affect comparisons in the future? Would you (the generic, anybody you, not just DrugS) play Discreet Cat over, say, Bernardini, because DC's 117 tops B's 116, but use Bernardini if DC's last-race number were 112? Is the use of numbers that disciplined for some of you that it could make a difference? I'm a numbers loyalist, but I'm not that picky. I'd see that both Bernardini and Discreet Cat are clearly superior, and use other factors to split them, or use them both, or flip a coin.

(As an aside, personally, I've never seen the advantage of timing races in hundredths over fifths; by the time you average for pars, and average for variants, and interpolate to fill the gaps, you've lost the precision of hundredths anyway, but that's my comfort zone. To each his own.)

[cj]

The reason I like 100ths is this. If a horse races in 44.99, it is reported as 44 4/5. If another horse in the same race had run in 45.21, it is reported as 45 1/5. The difference was 22/100 second, but the fifths makes it into a 40/100 difference, or nearly double. That is huge at the pace call.

As for the day in question, I will break down how I did the whole card figure and variant wise tonight for those interested. Those that don't like figures need not pay attention.

[the_fat_man]

The problem with this statement is that nobody is sure when BG suffered his injury. The connections themselves have no idea when he might have hurt himself, and watching the race, it does not appear at any point that BG is running on three legs. As some have alluded to on this very board, this could be a phantom injury for all we know, allowing him to bow out gracefully at a point where his connections know full well he's probably not going to win another major race this year, 100% sound or not.

Bottom line - I don't know how to answer your question.

Assuming BGC actually was injured DURING the race (any claim he was injured before the race is riduculous given how well he ran), here are my $.02 as to where it happened:

J Velaz had him (unnecessarily) under pressure the length of the stetch

whipped at least 5 times (I realize that's not alot but, then again, he wasn't catching the winner and he was never threatened for 2nd)

just before the wire, if you watch the headon, you'll notice that BGC is spent and starting to 'stagger' a bit, the result of which is that he starts to drift out

at that point, J Velaz switches the whip and busts him hard lefthanded

causing BGC to bear out significantly

the horse was spent, he was staggering, he was drifting

if he broke down during the race, I vote for it happening at the point described above

that's my story, and I'm sticking to it :cool:

[the_fat_man]

[QUOTE=the_fat_man]

I ride track bikes and the NJS stamp signifies the top of the line in equipment. So anyone riding track bikes, seriously or otherwise, covets NJS components. Thus, I can identify with the prestige of earning a HIGH BEYER NUMBER. I really can. (See my $300 NJS hubs; or the $1300 custom built Japanese frame I'm in the process of having built)

Now I'm suposed to believe you ride track bikes. :bang: Is that why you jerk everone's chain?


T.D.

Exactly: picture a 300 pound fat man, in aerodynamic position on a track bike, hitting 35 mph at the velodrome. Of course, everyone else is doing 40 mph so I need to do alot of drafting.

Then again, being that I'm so fat, the others want to draft on me.

That's why I'm so interested in TRIP(s handicapping).

[skate]

The problem with this statement is that nobody is sure when BG suffered his injury. The connections themselves have no idea when he might have hurt himself, and watching the race, it does not appear at any point that BG is running on three legs. As some have alluded to on this very board, this could be a phantom injury for all we know, allowing him to bow out gracefully at a point where his connections know full well he's probably not going to win another major race this year, 100% sound or not.

Bottom line - I don't know how to answer your question.



pa;

ok, good points

i'll settle for the "nobody is sure".

[cj]

These are the figures I came up with for Travers weekend. I use the Beyer scale for both pace and final time. For races at less than one mile, the pace call is at 4f. For races 1m through 1m 1/4, I use the 6f call for the pace.

Discreet Cat Allowance Race: Pace 104, Speed 111
Fleet Indian Personal Ensign: Pace 66, Speed 95 (Beyer "projected" this race to a 103. The pace was the obvious reason for the slow final time)
High Finanace Allowance Race: Pace 87, Speed 109
Henny Hughes King's Bishop: Pace 116, Speed 109
Bernardini Travers: Pace 103, Speed 116

I couldn't have asked for a better weekend to show the benefit of having a pace figure to see alongside a speed figure.

[Tom]

Interesting all those slow paced races for high class horses.
Does this take away from the Bernie mystique? a 103 is not exactly blazing saddle times.

[cj]

That usually indicates a lack of competition. Top class horses rarely show what they have in the tank when the pace is slow. Sometimes it is so slow, like the Personal Ensign, the race is pretty much a throwout as far as horse evaluation in the future.

[delayjf]

CJ,

Just out of curiousity, could you post the Preakness and Derby pace / speed figures?

[cj]

Kentucky Derby: Pace 119, Speed 110
Preakness Stakes: Pace 122, Speed 113
Belmont Stakes: Pace 102, Speed 102

[JustRalph]

how does that Belmont pace and speed figure compare to other years? It seems slow to me..........

[NYPlayer]

Barbaro got hurt and had to stop running....we have no clue how good he might be right now, had fate allowed him to develop throughout the year instead of stopping him cold on his ascent....

I don't think that fate had anything to do with it. Barbararo had already ascended to his peak and got hurt in the process. His injury was evidence of his physical condition casued bythe peak effort. I doubt he could have been any better than he was in the Derby. The number he earned there was a lifetime top.

[NYPlayer]

Didn't have it his own way? I'd say going wire to wire in his last two races is basically having it his own way, wouldn't you? Is he trying to say that Barbaro had things his own way in the Derby? Give me a break....

I don't understand statements like these. A horse hustles out of the gate, sets lightning fractions and draws off to win, and someone says essentially that it was nothing. What does "having his own way" mean? The horse earned the number because he ran damned fast.

It's time to start recognizing champion horses for what they are.

[Tom]

Lightning fast fractions?
The Travers was slow early.
He had one horse to beat, the rest being bascially fillers.
I'd say if I were to script an easier race I couldn't do it.
To his credit, he bulled to the front and stayed there.

[PaceAdvantage]

Barbararo had already ascended to his peak and got hurt in the process. His injury was evidence of his physical condition casued bythe peak effort. I doubt he could have been any better than he was in the Derby. The number he earned there was a lifetime top.

Impossible to know with any kind of certainty one way or the other. I'd be interested in hearing details on how you are able to form such a conclusive opinion. A quick look at the facts doesn't support your opinion.

Examined objectively, with his limited race record, I seriously DOUBT he topped out on Derby day.

Examined objectively, the moment in time of his injury (very, very early in the race, before any type of exertion OR exhaustion impact had time to develop), and the location (hind leg), all point to freak injury, and not injury caused by over extension. A breakdown in the front end in the latter part of the race or around the turn would have given your theory much more credence.

[the_fat_man]

I don't understand statements like these. A horse hustles out of the gate, sets lightning fractions and draws off to win, and someone says essentially that it was nothing. What does "having his own way" mean? The horse earned the number because he ran damned fast.

It's time to start recognizing champion horses for what they are.

I think there are 2 ways a horse can 'have his own way' in a race:

1) a bias of some sort: either track or race setup gets a horse an easy lead and carries it to the wire

2) like the track bike racer who is able to push a higher gear faster than his competitors and thus always has a favorable trip, the horse is able to control the pace, running just enough to stay ahead of the pack and drawing off at will in the later stages


The difference, IMO, between Barbaro and Bernardini is that while both are very nice horses and can sit just behind the pace and move with authority, in effect always getting a good trip, Bernardini also has the ability to control the pace if need be.

[twindouble]

I think there are 2 ways a horse can 'have his own way' in a race:

1) a bias of some sort: either track or race setup gets a horse an easy lead and carries it to the wire

2) like the track bike racer who is able to push a higher gear faster than his competitors and thus always has a favorable trip, the horse is able to control the pace, running just enough to stay ahead of the pack and drawing off at will in the later stages


The difference, IMO, between Barbaro and Bernardini is that while both are very nice horses and can sit just behind the pace and move with authority, in effect always getting a good trip, Bernardini also has the ability to control the pace if need be.

Hey skinny bike rider, that's basic 101 in handicapping, it also applies to claimers right on down to the bottom. I expect better in depth handicapping thought from someone who's in top shape riding bikes sucking in all that oxygen to the brain.

The problem I have is everyone having the need to measure it to the 10th degree when in most cases it's right there on the form.

T.D.

[the_fat_man]

Hey skinny bike rider, that's basic 101 in handicapping, it also applies to claimers right on down to the bottom. I expect better in depth handicapping thought from someone who's in top shape riding bikes sucking in all that oxygen to the brain.

The problem I have is everyone having the need to measure it to the 10th degree when in most cases it's right there on the form.

T.D.

Well, you have a problem with the quantification of data

I have a problem with the 'abstract' representation of events in general

so, while for you, "it's right there in the form"

for me, more precisely, "it's right there in the replay (or live feed)"

P.S.

might be basic to me and you but

not when it comes to the ALL IN!! group.