Layoff's

[aaron]

How much do layoff's mean? At certain meets I've noticed that layoff's seem insignificant.In some instances I've noticed horses pay big prices when they have competitive numbers and have been off for 60 day's or more.At what point does a layoff become significant?
Anybody have any thoughts on this subject?

[Tim]

Aaron,

Here are the results of a quick and dirty query. Bris Import Charts are the data source. Days away are calculated by subracting the "Last Race Date" field from the "Date" field.

Days Away Horses Wins Win %

Over 360 4,124 387 9.4%
181 to 360 22,876 2,243 10.7
91 to 180 27,725 3,086 11.1
61 to 90 24,220 2.890 11.9
46 to 60 31,806 4,044 12.7
31 to 45 89,133 11,808 13.2
15 to 30 317,006 40,603 12.8
8 to 14 174,915 21,055 12.0
Under 8 22,562 2,576 11.4
All Horses 714,367 88,892 12.4

It's my opinion that "Days Away" as a stand alone statistic doesn't help much. "Days Away" have to looked at in conjunction with things like condition books, vet lists, steward rulings, scratches and trainer intent to give them context.

Tim

[aaron]

Tim, Interesting statistic.
Only varies a few % from 181-360 to under 8.
Looking at these statistics any horse over 8-1 with some other handicapping positive must be considered.

[Dave Schwartz]

Aaron,

>>Looking at these statistics any horse over 8-1 with some other handicapping positive must be considered.<<

And why would you think that?

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[aaron]

Dave, If you scan the % of each layoff category you could conclude from looking at the percentages that they show horses win at approximately 9-10 % rate just based on the day's between races.If other handicapping factors can be added to the day's away factor why can't the win% be increased?I don't know what other factors you would have to apply,but it might be interesting to apply some other handicapping factors,such as trainer,trainer/wjockey,or speed #'s

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by aaron
Dave, If you scan the % of each layoff category you could conclude from looking at the percentages that they show horses win at approximately 9-10 % rate just based on the day's between races.If other handicapping factors can be added to the day's away factor why can't the win% be increased?I don't know what other factors you would have to apply,but it might be interesting to apply some other handicapping factors,such as trainer,trainer/wjockey,or speed #'s

When I've tried to apply standard, traditional strong handicapping factors to layoff horses, I've come away with overbet, underachieving horses. Better look for some odd factors.

[GameTheory]

For layoff horses (older horses only, not 3 year old), I look for class drops, jockey switches, recent works (especially on claimers, if he is running in the morning he probably isn't injured), and decent odds (5-1 to 20-1 or so).

Basically, I want to see a horse that you'd normally think is "for sale" but has one or two subtle positives in its favor that contradict that (like recent works or a positive jockey switch). Horses that come back at the same class at low odds I'm not interested in (maybe 2nd back, but not 1st). You have no way of knowing whether they are up to the task today. Much prefer a class dropper that will either "surprise" at good odds or run up the track. Quite a few surprise. (I want a decent trainer, as well.)

[Dave Schwartz]

Aaron,

If you break the search down by odds ranges as well, you will probably find that the win percentages will increase or decrease in near-direct proportion to the increase or decrease in odds.

In other words, it ain't that easy.


Dave

[Dave Schwartz]

Aaron,

For example, here is a quick sample I grabbed from a filter I had just run... All 8-horse fields run this year... From that sample I grabbed horses layed-off for 181 days or more...



Days+Odds
----------
WIN BETS
Days Odds Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
181+ 1 73 24 32.9 $1.34 2.63 0.74
181+ 8/5 100 32 32.0 $1.58 2.56 0.94
181+ 5/2 259 58 22.4 $1.51 1.79 0.90
181+ 9/2 454 78 17.2 $1.72 1.37 0.99
181+ 6 296 38 12.8 $1.78 1.03 1.04
181+ 9 429 38 8.9 $1.63 0.71 0.98
181+ 15 608 32 5.3 $1.42 0.42 0.84
181+ 24 453 16 3.5 $1.54 0.28 0.86
181+ 39 424 1 0.2 $0.13 0.02 0.09
181+ above 298 1 0.3 $0.30 0.03 0.21




The odds are indicative of the highest odds in the class. Thus, "8/5" includes horses from 1.20:1 to 1.79:1.


Hope this illustrates the point.

regards,
Dave Schwartz

[aaron]

Hi Dave, I realize that its not that easy.I was just wondering if there were any filters that would tilt the odds in a positive direction.For instance certain jockey/trainer stats off the layoff may show a profit in sprints off the layoff.

[Dave Schwartz]

Aaron,

There may well be somethings that enhance this factor. Certainly trainer stats would, providing you got enough sample size (which is the rub).

When I used to build spot play systems, as a general rule, I would start with a strong win percentage factor and add some "well-known" negatives to improve the price. Layoffs were one of those because they are typically not as bad as people think they are.

Good luck.

Dave

[andicap]

Dave, refresh my memory. What exactly is the PIV??

[Dave Schwartz]

PIV="Pool Impact Value"

Wins / PoolPct

[freeneasy]

hmmmm well known negatives, sounds entirely interesting

[Foolish Pleasure]

Clearly FTS and OFF 360+ underperform in virtually every catagory. The other intervals are close <15 is slightly better then 15-75, which is slightly better then 75-150 etc.....all the way to 365+ which is aweful.

[mudnturf]

Ed Bain (www.edbain.com) has done some good work on Layoffs and Claims.

[Dave Mark]

Aaron:

Just a couple things to remember when a horse is layed off.

Considering over 90% of all horse racing injuries that prohibit the horse from running, are based in his front legs.
They usually revolve around ligaments or the tendons, also horses can have degenerated joints, which will deteriorate over a longer time than most other injuries

I do not want to get too technical here describing what takes place with the front legs (if in fact it is the front legs), however, what you have to be aware of is, if the trainer brings the horse back within 5 weeks, there is a good chance the horse MAY NOT be injured involving his front legs.
Generally speaking, front leg injuries that impede forward movement, take more time to heal.

The point is simply:
Be aware of whether the trainer is one of the best or one who is incompetent, for the better trainer will give the horse more time to heal, provided, the injury is real (front legs) as opposed to an incompetent trainer, who could bring the horse back too soon.

Also, a layoff gives the horse more time for conditioning, and rehabilation, and many times will return to run a different distance than when layed off.

Hope this helps.

[kenwoodall]

In my opinion, if PP says alternating wraps on and off then the longer the layoffs the worse.