View Full Version : Lava Man and Bernardini
PaceAdvantage
08-21-2006, 10:27 AM
Watching Lava Man toy with the Pacific Classic field left me thinking that Murray Johnson may have been right when he said Lava Man had been beating up on pretty much nothing, which is why he entered Perfect Drift yesterday.
Murray is probably a bit miffed to realize his horse might have entered the world of "nothing" as well (which isn't quite fair, as Perfect Drift doesn't get enough credit in my book....yes, he doesn't win all that often, but damn, he's earned a hell of a lot of money by being consistently in the money ALL THESE YEARS).
So, after watching Lava Man (and not knowing what kind of fig he got in the PC), it occured to me that Bernardini only has himself standing in the way of Horse of the Year. Although I am no huge fan of Bernardini, I can't see him losing again this year if he maintains his current form, and that includes any matchup with Lava Man.
What say you?
rgustafson
08-21-2006, 10:37 AM
A BC Classic loss to Invasor or possibly David Junior could derail Bernardini's march to HOY.
Stevie Belmont
08-21-2006, 10:38 AM
The Classic will probably be the tell all. Invasor is the leader of the pack right now in my book. This Classic truly has the making of a great race, Throw in Bernardini and it's great. People have bashed this older group. I think it's a damn good group. Sun King is getting better and better. Will have to wait and see before anyone is crowned. Hopefully all stay in order for the big day.
Lava Man is as good a story as Seabiscuit right now. He has even won on turf. He also swept the Big 3 SoCal races, which I am guessing has never happened, though I don't know that for fact.
Invasor is a seriously racehorse as well. Being from South America, is he even nominated to the BC?
OTM Al
08-21-2006, 10:53 AM
Neither Lava Man or Invasor were I believe, but now with the better entry rules I'm sure they both will be soon. I know there will be people knocking him as we move toward November and I will certainly try to beat heim in the Classic, but 6 straight wins including 3 million dollar purses and 4 grade 1's and winning on both surfaces is a pretty darn good season. He is deserving of HOTY with a strong BC performance.
PaceAdvantage
08-21-2006, 11:05 AM
Not trying to knock what Lava Man has done, just thinking out loud that Bernardini should be able to handle him based upon what I saw in the PC....that move by Nakatani wouldn't have worked against Bernardini, IMO....
Invasor vs. Bernardini will be interesting if and when it happens. I sort of forgot about Invasor while I was composing this thread....silly me.....
OK, so maybe Bernardini's march to HOY isn't going to be as easy as I first thought, but Lava Man's 24.3 "move" followed by his 26+ final quarter didn't inspire a lot of confidence in me yesterday....
I don't think Lava Man is quite in the same league as the other two mentioned. But, if he retired tomorrow, he would be tough to beat for HOY no matter what the others do.
Bernardini is in his own class. Injuries, sickness, and bad racing luck are part of the game and one of those could possibly derail Bernardini but that's about it. In my view, he's better than any of the older horses right now and an extra month or two to mature will only widen the gap.
I like the trainer's strategyuu for Lave Man yesterday - take it to them. And he did.
I think too many horses race defensively - I like the come get me attitude, and the fall races suddenly look interesting again.
banacek
08-21-2006, 11:37 AM
OK, so maybe Bernardini's march to HOY isn't going to be as easy as I first thought, but Lava Man's 24.3 "move" followed by his 26+ final quarter didn't inspire a lot of confidence in me yesterday....
But the 1st quarters 23 1/5, 23 2/5, 24 3/5, followed by 24 1/5 and then coming home in 26 1/5 were pretty impressive to me. When you are setting a pretty fast pace for a mile and a quarter and can go 24 1/5 for the 4th quarter (actually accelerating on the lead), I was pretty impressed.
DJofSD
08-21-2006, 11:38 AM
Lava Man v. Invasor -- classic east v. west contest.
And I guess Lava Man will be the Rodney Dangerfield horse.
All this talk....Bernardini has to make it past Saturday...
ghostyapper
08-21-2006, 11:59 AM
To me right now the only one I am certain about is invasor. He's proven he can win easy and win tough at multiple tracks.
I need to see lava man win outside of california. Bernardini has not had a tough test yet.
Speaking of lava man, I know the tracks are owned by different people, but you would think they'd have some kind of bonus for sweeping the 3 biggest cali races.
And lets not forget flower alley just yet. I made that same mistake after last year's JCGC and look what he did in the classic. I'm sure bluegrass cat will have something to say about things as well.
JPinMaryland
08-21-2006, 12:01 PM
It's true, CJ, no horse has won all 3 major west coast races in one year. Lava Man is the first. One other horse had won all three but did it over a period of years, cant recall who that was.
Lava Man is not nominated for the BC as suggested. The suggestion on ESPN II was that he soon would be. Not sure how they know, he is pointed toward another race before that..
C.J. Lava man as good a story as seabiscuit?There must be a back story I missed care to enlighten.
Claimed for $50,000 in August 2004, he has won 13 of 33 starts and $3,504,706.
bigmack
08-21-2006, 12:54 PM
“I'd love to know his (Lava Man's) bicarb level,” Johnson said. “I'm sure it's in the 30s.”
Who is this guy?
http://dailynews.com/sports/ci_4212629
Buddha
08-21-2006, 12:56 PM
It's true, CJ, no horse has won all 3 major west coast races in one year. Lava Man is the first. One other horse had won all three but did it over a period of years, cant recall who that was.
Best Pal
“I'd love to know his (Lava Man's) bicarb level,” Johnson said. “I'm sure it's in the 30s.”
Who is this guy?
http://dailynews.com/sports/ci_4212629
He is a brutal trainer that happened to somehow have someone give him a good horse. He had a very long 0fer at one point, and couldn't even get Perfect Drift to win in his prime a few years ago.
Shouldn't you at least finish second before you bitch? Otherwise, his quote should have been "I'd love to know their (insert three names here) bicarb levels."
bigmack
08-21-2006, 01:30 PM
What a low rent thing on his part to be saying
Stevie Belmont
08-21-2006, 01:53 PM
Maybe it had something to do with the Milkshakes.
I might give him some credit for speaking his mind, except that he trains in the most drug liberal state in the country for racing. I don't recall him complaining one iota in Kentucky.
bigmack
08-21-2006, 02:16 PM
Maybe it had something to do with the Milkshakes.
Or the collusion with DelMar to shallow down the track for LM -
Gosh there's a bunch of reasons why his horse didn't win
BIG49010
08-21-2006, 02:18 PM
Without Drift, the Aussie boy is on a boat back to the old country!
Stevie Belmont
08-21-2006, 02:28 PM
Im not saying he should, or shouldn't have said what he did. He did take a few shots. The one at O'neil, who was busted in the past. So any horse that he runs, you will wonder how much of an advantage they may have. Then again, there are several trainers that have had positives in the past. It's part of the game. And i'm not saying Lava Man has any type of substance in his body. He won yesterday, because he was the better horse. Will give him the benefit of the doubt, but that cloud that hovers will always be there.
As for the track stuff...thats another issue in itself. Not saying he was right or wrong. His horse has a grinding late running style. His horse would be at a disadvantage anywhere with out a good set up. Especially Del Mar. I don't think it's that much of a secret that tracks do tend to favor speed on big stakes days. Murray should understand this anyway. Bottom line....best horse won yesterday. Sour Grapes.
kenwoodallpromos
08-21-2006, 02:46 PM
I say there should be seperate HOY honors for 3 male and older male. Unless you want older running in the classics!
Big3races-DARN! I was just starting to get the "California sucks" attitude!LOL!!
Indulto
08-21-2006, 03:39 PM
Neither Lava Man or Invasor were I believe, but now with the better entry rules I'm sure they both will be soon. I know there will be people knocking him as we move toward November and I will certainly try to beat heim in the Classic, but 6 straight wins including 3 million dollar purses and 4 grade 1's and winning on both surfaces is a pretty darn good season. He is deserving of HOTY with a strong BC performance.OA,
I agree with you except that I don't think Lava Man should run in the BC Classic, but rather in the BC Turf. He has nothing more to prove at 1-1/4 m on dirt. If that's the criteria for HOTY, he's already won it with 3 straight G1 wins at that distance/surface at 3 different tracks. He didn't duck anybody.
If he were a 3YO, he might have been asked to go the 1-1/2 m on dirt which the connections of Bernardini declined. Even though Lava man cannot be a sire, his connections should give him a shot at maximum accomplishment by pitting him against world-class turf specialists at 1-1/2 m. He would still likely be HOTY even if he doesn't win.
Bernardini has to beat his elders to be HOTY and to be tested beyond 1-3/16 m. He would have to win the BC Classic to take HOTY away from Lava Man, and then only if he BEAT Lava Man in that race.
Invasor still has to prove he's a lot better than West Virginia and Sun King isn't the best reference above 1-1/8 m. Flower Alley may no longer be what he was in 2005. No contest between Lava Man and either Bernardini or Invasor, SO FAR.
Bluegrass Cat and Jazil still have time to become 3YO champs.
Two Horse of the Years?
What are you talking about? They already have their own awards, 3yos and older horses, of both sexes.
Valuist
08-21-2006, 03:44 PM
Bernardini may be the better horse, but Lava Man has accomplished more and if HOY voting were right now, I'd vote for Lava Man.
Stevie Belmont
08-21-2006, 03:52 PM
Invasor has won 3 Grade I's at three different tracks. His win over the ever improving Sun King was as a gutsy a win as you are going to see. Of the top 3, that was the best win. Sun King is not chopped liver by any means and could very well run huge in the Classic. Lava Man and Invasor are ranked 1-2 either way. I'd give the edge to Invasor. LM sports wins on the turf. Both tower over Bernardini in the the class of fields beat. Bernardini with a big effort Saturday will mean a lot.
I would not sell Flower Alley short after one loss. And Invasor beat him as well, but FA was not at his best, nonetheless, he has beaten the best offered so far.
Valuist
08-21-2006, 04:16 PM
I think Flower Alley is a bit of a fraud. He beat a less than 100% fit Bellamy Road at a distance that clearly wasn't Bellamy Road's best. His BCC finish was more of a product of being near a soft pace and hanging around. At no point was Saint Liam in danger of losing to him. Then he beats something like a 3 horse field in the slop at Monmouth.
If all THREE were running, I'd expect Bernardini to be favored with Lava Man the second choice.
the_fat_man
08-21-2006, 04:17 PM
OA,
Bluegrass Cat and Jazil still have time to become 3YO champs.
:lol::lol::lol:
who books your action, bro?
“I'd love to know his (Lava Man's) bicarb level,” Johnson said. “I'm sure it's in the 30s.”
Who is this guy?
http://dailynews.com/sports/ci_4212629
Murray Johnson?
Isn't he the maitre'd at Saratoga?
bigmack
08-21-2006, 04:45 PM
An emotional and contrite Murray Johnson, trainer of fourth-place finisher Perfect Drift, apologized profusely this morning for comments he made following Sunday’s running of the Pacific Classic.
“With the emotions of the time,” Johnson said, “I was looking to blame things and people that weren’t to blame. I want people to know that’s not what we think and feel. We got beat fair and square; we’ve been beaten many times and I was looking to blame anybody but myself.
“I spoke with Doug [winning trainer Doug O’Neill] this morning. I feel terrible about that. The owners are very hurt by it, and rightly so, because it’s associated with the horse. It was totally wrong to make those comments.”
In response to the call, O’Neill said, “That was very classy of Murray. He had a hard week and he’s done a great job with that horse, and he was very classy to call me.”
ghostyapper
08-21-2006, 04:52 PM
I think Flower Alley is a bit of a fraud. He beat a less than 100% fit Bellamy Road at a distance that clearly wasn't Bellamy Road's best. His BCC finish was more of a product of being near a soft pace and hanging around. At no point was Saint Liam in danger of losing to him. Then he beats something like a 3 horse field in the slop at Monmouth.
If all THREE were running, I'd expect Bernardini to be favored with Lava Man the second choice.
He did beat park avenue ball in that monmouth race. Also his bc race last year was very impressive for a 3yo. And I did think at one point st. liam was in danger of losing when st. liam started drifting out.
Even if you don't think he was in danger of losing to him, he still only lost by a length to the HOY as a 3yo. The woodward will tell us whether he's done or not.
ghostyapper
08-21-2006, 04:55 PM
OA,
I agree with you except that I don't think Lava Man should run in the BC Classic, but rather in the BC Turf. He has nothing more to prove at 1-1/4 m on dirt. If that's the criteria for HOTY, he's already won it with 3 straight G1 wins at that distance/surface at 3 different tracks. He didn't duck anybody.
If he were a 3YO, he might have been asked to go the 1-1/2 m on dirt which the connections of Bernardini declined. Even though Lava man cannot be a sire, his connections should give him a shot at maximum accomplishment by pitting him against world-class turf specialists at 1-1/2 m. He would still likely be HOTY even if he doesn't win.
Bernardini has to beat his elders to be HOTY and to be tested beyond 1-3/16 m. He would have to win the BC Classic to take HOTY away from Lava Man, and then only if he BEAT Lava Man in that race.
Invasor still has to prove he's a lot better than West Virginia and Sun King isn't the best reference above 1-1/8 m. Flower Alley may no longer be what he was in 2005. No contest between Lava Man and either Bernardini or Invasor, SO FAR.
Bluegrass Cat and Jazil still have time to become 3YO champs.
To me lava man still has something to prove at 10 furlongs. He has never won outside california. He also has never run a sub 2.00 race, which isn't too impressive considering all his wins were on fast cali tracks.
Valuist
08-21-2006, 04:56 PM
Flower Alley will not be on any of my P4/P3 tickets. Looking forward to taking a stand against him.
I agree Lava Man has to prove he can win away from SoCal (i.e. w/out Bute) but he has nothing to prove at 10 furlongs. Was he supposed to win by a bigger margin? He doesn't care what the time or fig is. And its not like anyone was getting to him. That's the same stuff people said about Cigar.
Indulto
08-21-2006, 05:04 PM
:lol::lol::lol:
who books your action, bro?tgm,
Haven't you heard -- bookmaking is for sick birds (ill eagle).;)
I'd personally prefer Barbaro, but his campaign was too short. In his absence, Bluegrass Cat and Jazil remain contenders for 3YO honors along with Bernardini. If either beats the latter (or if he ducks them again), they're at least as deserving as he is.
Indulto
08-21-2006, 05:11 PM
To me lava man still has something to prove at 10 furlongs. He has never won outside california. He also has never run a sub 2.00 race, which isn't too impressive considering all his wins were on fast cali tracks.GY,
What about his 1:59-3 with a 120 Beyer in last year's Hollywood Gold Cup?
To be fair to Murray Johnson regarding his comments earlier, the man's father did have a heart attack at Delmar on Friday evening. It seems the reporter should have known this, and at the very least mentioned it in his story.
joeyreb
08-21-2006, 09:55 PM
Bernardini trainers ducked both the Derby and Belmont fields. Unlike Doug O'Neil who ran Lava Man in ALL the races he should have ran in.
My vote is for Lava Man, but don't forget Barbaro, if he should live from this injury. Barbaro is still the story of the Year. Your avg. person on street knows who Barbaro is, Bernardini or Lava Man most likely not. Which is sad.
By the way, Lava Man ran 110 Beyer in yesterday's Pacific Classic.
PaceAdvantage
08-21-2006, 10:03 PM
joeyreb, the year is far from over. What is accomplished now is often forgotten about come December.
I wouldn't call Bernardini's skipping of the Belmont "ducking." Bernardini didn't duck anyone in the Belmont...in fact, the reason the field was so large in the Belmont was precisely because Barbaro and Bernardini didn't run. What's the opposite of "ducking?"
Albertrani thinks he's sitting on HOY, easily.....and I assume they are going to campaign Bernardini in such a way as to secure HOY if he is fortunate to stay healthy.
ghostyapper
08-21-2006, 10:06 PM
You're right I didn't realize he ran that fast in last years gold cup. Still I need to see him win at least 1 or 2 10 furlong races outside of cali before I say he has nothing left to prove at the distance. His times this year have not been off the charts, especially for cali tracks.
Bernardini did not duck the derby field, he didn't have enough graded stakes earnings to get in.
Here's a fact - he ran the fastest time in every race he has won so far.
Bernardini trainers ducked both the Derby and Belmont fields. Unlike Doug O'Neil who ran Lava Man in ALL the races he should have ran in.
1. Bernardini's third lifetime start was in the Withers, a week before the KD. You think he should make start #3 in the Derby? Or should've come back a week later and raced again?
2. If Albertrani and the Sheikh were chickens they'd have ducked Barbaro big time after his powerful Derby win. Yet there they were, taking him on with a horse who had only three lifetime starts under his belt.
3. The suggestion that they were ducking horses like Bluegrass Cat and Jazil in the Belmont is laughable. Bernardini is open lengths better than either of those horses, and Albertrani and everybody else knew it after the Preakness.
Bernardini will probably have to run the table to be HoY. Fair enough. But the suggestion that the connections are ducking anybody... come on.
I think what he was ducking was poor career managemnt that seems to be very prevalent amoung 3YOS. Refreshing to see someone plot a realistic course for his horse. The results show.
joeyreb
08-21-2006, 10:44 PM
joeyreb, the year is far from over. What is accomplished now is often forgotten about come December.
I wouldn't call Bernardini's skipping of the Belmont "ducking." Bernardini didn't duck anyone in the Belmont...in fact, the reason the field was so large in the Belmont was precisely because Barbaro and Bernardini didn't run. What's the opposite of "ducking?"
Albertrani thinks he's sitting on HOY, easily.....and I assume they are going to campaign Bernardini in such a way as to secure HOY if he is fortunate to stay healthy.
I think Barbaro didn't run in the Belmont because he broke down in The Preakness and has been fighting for his life ever since. If he hadn't (broke down) no one even care about Bernardini or Jazil. They would be in other 3 yr olds also rans like Bluegrass Cat, Brother Derek, Bob & John all fighting for lesser Stakes Races.
I think Showing Up might be best 3 yr old now, but he still has plenty to prove as do Bernardini and Jazil.
PaceAdvantage
08-21-2006, 10:45 PM
I think Barbaro didn't run in the Belmont because he broke down in The Preakness and has been fighting for his life ever since.
Are you typing this because you seriously think I don't know this?
The fact is, he didn't run in the Belmont, the reason not withstanding, and neither did Bernardini, and that's why the field was as large as it was....
Jeez....take a gander around this website, specifically do a search on the Barbaro posts, and let me know if I was unaware that he broke down....
DJofSD
08-21-2006, 11:03 PM
Neither Lava Man or Invasor were [nominated] I believe, but now with the better entry rules I'm sure they both will be soon.
If I read the NTRA site correctly, they need to pony up $250,000 to be able to run. Sounds like good pot-odds to me!
Indulto
08-21-2006, 11:09 PM
Looks Like Lava Man headed for BC Classic showdown:
Lava Man has turf option for BC prep By JAY PRIVMAN
http://www.drf.com/news/article/77785.html (http://www.drf.com/news/article/77785.html)
DEL MAR, Calif. - The versatility Lava Man has displayed in winning Grade 1 races on both turf and dirt this year could come into play again for trainer Doug O'Neill in deciding how best to prepare Lava Man for the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, his year-end goal.
O'Neill wants to give Lava Man one more race before the Nov. 4 Breeders' Cup Classic, which is at 1 1/4 miles, the same distance as the Pacific Classic. Lava Man's options at the upcoming Oak Tree meeting at Santa Anita are to run in the Goodwood Breeders' Cup Handicap at 1 1/8 miles on dirt on Oct. 7, or move back to turf for the Clement Hirsch Invitational on Sept. 30 in order to remain at 1 1/4 miles, O'Neill said.Why wouldn't a prep race at CD be preferable?
samyn on the green
08-21-2006, 11:11 PM
Keeneland is open for much of October and Turfway is open in September, there is no prep for the BC at CD.
Why wouldn't a prep race at CD be preferable?
PaceAdvantage
08-22-2006, 01:44 AM
I thought I heard on ESPN that it was only $150,000 to nominate for Lava Man....(only!)
joeyreb
08-22-2006, 02:14 AM
I thought I heard on ESPN that it was only $150,000 to nominate for Lava Man....(only!)
I think his connections will have some change spare to from $2,470,000 from his 2006 earnings
Indulto
08-22-2006, 04:16 AM
Keeneland is open for much of October and Turfway is open in September, there is no prep for the BC at CD.sotg,
You're right. As far as I can tell, these are his options for a big money prep on his way to either BC event:
Date. Trk Purse. Event .................Grade Dist.. Srf
09/02 SAR 500000 Woodward .................G1 1 1/8 m
09/09 BEL 500000 Man O'War ................G1 1 3/8 m T
09/30 HAW 500000 Hawthorne Gold Cup .......G2 1 1/4 m
09/30 OSA 250000 C.L.Hirsch Turf Champ ....G1 1 1/4 m T
10/07 BEL 750000 Jockey Club Gold Cup .....G1 1 1/4 m
10/07 BEL 600000 J.Hirsch Turf Classic Inv G1 1 1/2 m T
10/07 OSA 500000 Goodwood BC H. ...........G2 1 1/8 m
11/04 CD 4000000 BC Classic ...............G1 1 1/4 m
11/04 CD 3000000 BC Turf ..................G1 1 1/2 m T
ghostyapper
08-22-2006, 11:39 AM
The suggestion that they were ducking horses like Bluegrass Cat and Jazil in the Belmont is laughable. Bernardini is open lengths better than either of those horses, and Albertrani and everybody else knew it after the Preakness.
He might be but bernardini has not yet proven that he is open lengths better than bluegrass cat. Bluegrass Cat did the same thing in the derby to sweetnorthern as bernardini did to him in the preakness. Also bluegrass cats haskell was every bit as impressive against a tougher field as bernardini's jim dandy was.
Bluegrass Cat rode a huge outside bias on Haskell day, and I am not one to call a track biased rashly.
OTM Al
08-22-2006, 12:27 PM
I think it is interesting that the 3yo division talk is all about Bernardini and Barbaro. If (and this is a huge if admittedly given he hasn't lived up to what he looked like coming into this year) Bluegrass Cat were to win the Travers and perform well against older his credentials would be as good as anyones. 2 2nds in TC races (which seems all but forgotten) plus the Haskell win is pretty good. Honestly I don't think he will, but things can change pretty quickly in this game and I think he should at least be considered as a legitimate contender.
OTM Al
08-22-2006, 12:29 PM
To get back a bit closer to topic, I believe the owners said they are keeping Lava Man home to run in the C. L. Hirsch because A) its in CA, and B) its 1 1/4 miles.
Valuist
08-22-2006, 01:05 PM
Bluegrass Cat rode a huge outside bias on Haskell day, and I am not one to call a track biased rashly.
That is definitely true. Either Bravo picked up on it that day or he really has a penchant for going wide. Either way, it looked like 4-5 paths out from the rail was the spot to be.
ghostyapper
08-22-2006, 01:42 PM
Bluegrass Cat rode a huge outside bias on Haskell day, and I am not one to call a track biased rashly.
Track bias or not he won the race by 7. His credentials at the very least are equal to bernardini's.
ryesteve
08-22-2006, 01:47 PM
Track bias or not he won the race by 7. His credentials at the very least are equal to bernardini's.
Does that mean you'd be willing to take Bluegrass Cat and give me even money on a head-to-head matchup?
ghostyapper
08-22-2006, 01:51 PM
Sorry I don't take bets on message boards. I use the track and my online wagering account for that.
But if I was a morning line maker I'd have the two at even odds. If I were a handicapper, I'd assign the 2 even weights
ryesteve
08-22-2006, 02:25 PM
Too bad... I figure the best I'd be able to get at Pinnacle on this matchup is -150 or -160.
By the way, when you say you'd make the ML even, does that mean you really think that they're going to go off at similar odds, or is this just a reflection of how you are assessing their chances of winning? I'm not sure which would surprise me more... Bluegrass Cat winning, or Bernardini not being the overwhelming favorite.
the_fat_man
08-22-2006, 02:29 PM
He might be but bernardini has not yet proven that he is open lengths better than bluegrass cat. Bluegrass Cat did the same thing in the derby to sweetnorthern as bernardini did to him in the preakness. Also bluegrass cats haskell was every bit as impressive against a tougher field as bernardini's jim dandy was.
:lol::lol::lol::lol:
Bluegrass Cat is gonna take a beating in the Travers (assuming he's running).
If you actually follow the game --however seriously ----
and you actually think that BGC is in Bernardini's league
you really need to RE-EVALUATE.
sorry to say it but you're clueless
ghostyapper
08-22-2006, 02:40 PM
Too bad... I figure the best I'd be able to get at Pinnacle on this matchup is -150 or -160.
By the way, when you say you'd make the ML even, does that mean you really think that they're going to go off at similar odds, or is this just a reflection of how you are assessing their chances of winning? I'm not sure which would surprise me more... Bluegrass Cat winning, or Bernardini not being the overwhelming favorite.
No that is just my ML. I think bernardini will be the favorite, maybe 9-5 compared to bluegrass at maybe 5-2.
I apologize fat_man. I am obviously not as smart as you and cannot have a definitive opinion of a horse off 2 performances. You can elevate him to his own level but I need to see him more.
46zilzal
08-22-2006, 02:44 PM
hard to say until the pp's come out. Bernardini has looked impressive, but so far, he has simply run away from all competition on relative speed favoring ovals. If another one hooked him and he moved out, it would give more to his credentials. Often the Travers is about stamina over speed.
Stevie Belmont
08-22-2006, 02:44 PM
Probable Race time Odds
Bernardini 3/5
Blugerass Cat 2-1
the_fat_man
08-22-2006, 02:48 PM
No that is just my ML. I think bernardini will be the favorite, maybe 9-5 compared to bluegrass at maybe 5-2.
I apologize fat_man. I am obviously not as smart as you and cannot have a definitive opinion of a horse off 2 performances. You can elevate him to his own level but I need to see him more.
Ghosty ---nothing personal
BGC got hammered in the Bluegrass
then couldn't get past a too-early-moving Jazil, who was looking to lay down the length of the stretch, in the Belmont
then he goes to Jersey and beats nothing --unless you feel that Weak COntender and the Glitters horse (ALbertrani) are actually good stock--- in a strong drive.
I haven't seen the field for the Travers yet (is it out?)
but surely there's something out there better than BGC for second.
Maybe Dan Putz will bring back Steppenwolfer, assuming he didn't burn the horse out for life with his training tactics leading up to the Belmont. Learned a lesson, Dan?
JustRalph
08-22-2006, 02:51 PM
Track bias or not he won the race by 7. His credentials at the very least are equal to bernardini's.
???? I don't think so. He is too slow.............I think things have to go well for him to run well. As opposed to Bernardini who can "take it to them" from anywhere mid pack and up. Bluegrass cat needs some help up front.
Stevie Belmont
08-22-2006, 03:02 PM
Bright One is out. Came down with a severe case of Bernardinitis. Bernardini is pretty much facing the same bunch form the Jim Dandy with the addition of Bluegrass Cat. Couple of new Shooters...High Cotton and Hesandoldsalt. Grade 2 or 3 types at best. Strong Contender is going to pass altogether.
Dini and Cat tower over this group. Looks like one big chalk fest.
delayjf
08-22-2006, 04:20 PM
After much deliberation, I've concluded that I'm not that impressed with Lava Man in the Pacific Classic. For any horse to be able to accelerate in the third fraction tells me the pace of the race - no matter how impressive the raw fractional times appeared to be - took nothing out of the horse. Unless one feels that Lava Man is the next Big Red. Perplexing to me is that no one was able to make up any ground into a 26 second final fraction. This race fell apart late and nobody was able to take advantage of that. What happened to Giacamo, did he bleed or something. :confused:
Murrey's comments about Lava Man were ill-advised, BUT, I have seen the track change course prior to the Pacific Classic before. The day before Skimmings PC victory, as I recall, every race was won from off the pace. On PC day, just the opposite. I'm not saying Steve Woods did anything intentional, just that there was a dramatic change from one day to the next.
Valuist
08-22-2006, 05:46 PM
After much deliberation, I've concluded that I'm not that impressed with Lava Man in the Pacific Classic. For any horse to be able to accelerate in the third fraction tells me the pace of the race - no matter how impressive the raw fractional times appeared to be - took nothing out of the horse. Unless one feels that Lava Man is the next Big Red. Perplexing to me is that no one was able to make up any ground into a 26 second final fraction. This race fell apart late and nobody was able to take advantage of that. What happened to Giacamo, did he bleed or something. :confused:
Murrey's comments about Lava Man were ill-advised, BUT, I have seen the track change course prior to the Pacific Classic before. The day before Skimmings PC victory, as I recall, every race was won from off the pace. On PC day, just the opposite. I'm not saying Steve Woods did anything intentional, just that there was a dramatic change from one day to the next.
I thought Super Frolic ran a big race. 3 wide on the first turn then hung out 4 wide on the far turn and Perfect Drift and the others besides Good Reward couldn't get to him.
o_crunk
08-22-2006, 06:43 PM
Track bias or not he won the race by 7. His credentials at the very least are equal to bernardini's.
I don't trust anything that happened on dirt that day at Monmouth. That being said he did win the race. He was supposed to win. Not to take anything away from Praying for Cash, but with Bravo (who figured out the bias pretty early....hmmmmm!?) up and that horse finishes second by that wide a margin like that after fighting tooth and nail to beat a horse like Latent Heat earlier in the meet....I just have got to throw the race out. These guys aren't even on the chart for 3yo's of the year.
However, I'm looking at Bluegrass Cat's PP's right now. That second to Deputy Glitters in the TBDby is still completely unacceptable to be even considered HOY. Further, after getting trounced in the freakiest race of the year in the Bluegrass that should pretty much end the argument right there.
I was surprised that Bluegrass cat only got a 101 beyer for the Kentucky Derby. After watching the race again recently it clearly is the best race of his this year.
Anything can happen in horse racing. But I'd put Showing Up ahead of Bluegrass Cat in the 3yo category.
Invasor is my pick so far. I doubted him after that Pimlico win, but he's showed up in a BIG way in the last two at BEL and SAR. I can't really trust Lava Man outside of CA, but he keeps on winning races, so who knows, but I doubt we'll even see him in the classic.
Stevie Belmont
08-22-2006, 06:53 PM
Toss the Tampa Bay Derby. Flipped a shoe early on.
Should I bet the field in the Travers to show? :lol:
ghostyapper
08-22-2006, 08:37 PM
However, I'm looking at Bluegrass Cat's PP's right now. That second to Deputy Glitters in the TBDby is still completely unacceptable to be even considered HOY. Further, after getting trounced in the freakiest race of the year in the Bluegrass that should pretty much end the argument right there.
.
I never mentioned Bluegrass cat for HOY but if you say he can't win it because of his loss in the tb derby, how can you give it to bernardini who lost a maiden race?
As steve said toss the tb derby because of the shoe. And if you want to toss the monmouth race you better toss the bluegrass. Results from keenlend rarely mean much. I especially don't hold a derby prep results with too much weight when he comes back to finish ahead of sinister minister in the derby
Right now HOY is between invasor and lava man. Either bluegrass cat or bernardini will have to win the travers and classic to enter the mix.
ryesteve
08-22-2006, 09:03 PM
how can you give it to bernardini who lost a maiden race?
Geez, if that means anything, let's light some torches and go rip Secretariat's plaque out of the Hall of Fame... :rolleyes:
ghostyapper
08-22-2006, 10:13 PM
Whether deliberately or not, you completely ignored the first half of the sentence. :confused:
If I were a handicapper, I'd assign the 2 even weights
Bernardini is, at a minimum, five lengths superior to Bluegrass Cat.
ryesteve
08-22-2006, 11:10 PM
Whether deliberately or not, you completely ignored the first half of the sentence. :confused:
Trust me, it wouldn't have helped
ghostyapper
08-22-2006, 11:16 PM
Trust me, it wouldn't have helped
Would not have helped? The whole purpose of the statement was to show o_crunk how ludicrious his statement was about Bluegrass cat being out of the HOY running off 1 2nd place finish to Deputy Glitters. Sorry you could not see that and took half of the sentence to dissect. :bang:
ryesteve
08-22-2006, 11:38 PM
Would not have helped? The whole purpose of the statement was to show o_crunk how ludicrious his statement was about Bluegrass cat being out of the HOY running off 1 2nd place finish to Deputy Glitters. Sorry you could not see that and took half of the sentence to dissect. :bang:
You call that a "dissection"?? Anyway, I'm not saying that pinning a horse's HOY prospects to a performance in one race makes any sense, but equating a horse's debut performance to another horse's Derby prep fizzle at 2/5 probably makes even less sense.
DJofSD
08-23-2006, 12:26 AM
Poll at BRISNET has 55% saying Lava Man can do it. (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/HTML/racingnews.html)
46zilzal
08-23-2006, 12:49 AM
many a very good one has lost as a baby.....many good ones.
ryesteve
08-23-2006, 08:58 AM
Poll at BRISNET has 55% saying Lava Man can do it. (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/HTML/racingnews.html)
Stupid phrasing on the poll question... of course he "can" win it... why not ask if he "will" win it??
ghostyapper
08-23-2006, 09:01 AM
another horse's Derby prep fizzle at 2/5 probably makes even less sense.
You're right. Secretariats "fizzle" in his dreby prep at 2/5 should ban him from the hall of fame.
ryesteve
08-23-2006, 09:26 AM
You're obviously confusing me with Mr. Crunk, since I never criticized BG's performance in the TB Derby at all.
ghostyapper
08-23-2006, 09:52 AM
You're obviously confusing me with Mr. Crunk, since I never criticized BG's performance in the TB Derby at all.
Wow see what taking a message out of context and commenting on it does? Sucks
ryesteve
08-23-2006, 10:01 AM
Not at all... it just continues to makes you look confused.
Let me explain. I didn't take your remark out of context. You were making a lousy analogy to refute a faulty premise. If you had said instead, "Not that BG is Secretariat, but he got trashed even worse in a Derby prep, and it didn't stop him from becoming HOY", this thread would've been a whole lot smaller.
ghostyapper
08-23-2006, 01:07 PM
No this thread would have been a whole lot smaller if you didn't take 7 words out of a paragraph and try to prove those words wrong. Take this for example.
"If will smith is a good singer, then I am president of the united states."
Your response would probably be:
You are not president of the united states, George Bush is president.
See? My guess is not :bang:
46zilzal
08-23-2006, 01:10 PM
many a very good one has lost as a baby.....many good ones.
Secretariat and Count Fleet are two
ryesteve
08-23-2006, 01:52 PM
Take this for example.
"If will smith is a good singer, then I am president of the united states."
Your response would probably be:
You are not president of the united states, George Bush is president.
No, my response would be, "That has absolutely nothing to do with what you said earlier about Bluegrass Cat and Bernardini". Referring to yourself as president is an obvious absurdity (thank god). Criticizing a horse for losing a race you think he should have won, is not an absurdity.
classhandicapper
08-23-2006, 02:59 PM
He also swept the Big 3 SoCal races, which I am guessing has never happened, though I don't know that for fact.
First time ever.
classhandicapper
08-23-2006, 03:13 PM
I like the Lava Man and Invasor match up because I think they are of similar ability. I think I would give Invasor the edge right now. Lava Man hasn't been particularly effective away from his home base and Invasor is still young and lightly raced enough to develop further between now and the BC. I think the current campaign plan of giving him a break now will set him up perfectly for the BC. I'm not sure what the plans are for Lava Man, but he's already had a tough campaign (one of the best ever though based on just accomplishments alone, sweeping the CA triple crown and squeezing in a Grade 1 on turf in between, not to mention the other turf win)
To me, Bernardini is obviously the horse with the most room for improvement. He's lightly raced, well bred, already improving rapidly etc.... I am a tad skeptical about the quality of his last race relative to the visual impression it left because the track was speed favoring and he got loose on a muddy track against mediocre horses, but he's still the best 3YO by a decent margin and likely to move past the older horses even if he's not already there.
ghostyapper
08-23-2006, 03:31 PM
Morning line has bernardini at even money and bluegrass cat 2-1
classhandicapper
08-23-2006, 03:33 PM
I should also add that I thought Flower Alley was a mortal lock to be a very good 4YO this year because Pletcher specifically designed a short and late year campaign to have him at his peak for the BC.
Given that he was an improving 3YO that finished off the season with a 2nd in the BC Classic last year, it seemed very likely he would be a major force this year for Pletcher.
IMO, his first race back was mediocre at best, but I expected a lot of improvement 2nd out off the layoff. That was the plan to begin with and Pletcher is too darn competent to think he was just blowing smoke. Had he run a decent 2nd or 3rd I would still think he was being set up for a peak in the BC Classic, but I was disappointed with his last effort. In fact, I was totally shocked that Pletcher could be so wrong about where he was at that time despite the fact that he admitted he wasn't 100% going in. I fully expected an annoucement that he bled or got hurt or something. All that said, I don't think it's 100% certain that this horse is a non-contender for the Classic. It looks like he's getting a softer spot for his next effort and he should move forward some more and run a lot better. If he doesn't run better, then something is wrong, and shockingly, Pletcher hasn't found it yet.
Indulto
09-05-2006, 12:36 AM
http://www.drf.com/news/article/78316.html (http://www.drf.com/news/article/78316.html)
Hendricks: Derek wasn't quite fit By JAY PRIVMAN
...
Lava Man will shun synthetic surface
Lava Man … will be trained at Santa Anita when O'Neill's stable leaves Del Mar this week …
O'Neill said Sunday that he wants to train Lava Man on a conventional surface this fall, and not on the synthetic surface being installed at Hollywood. Lava Man is being pointed for the BC Classic, and will have a prep race at the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting.
… "I don't know how he would like that surface, and the Breeders' Cup is coming up," O'Neill said of Hollywood Park synthetic surface. "It's nothing against that track."
… Following Lava Man's win in the Pacific Classic …, O'Neill said Lava Man would run in the Hirsch. Sunday, O'Neill said that the Goodwood has been more strongly considered.
"The older male division is so mediocre," he said. "That's a lot of prize money."Not exactly what I'd want the trainer of my HOTY candidate to suggest publicly.
Indulto
09-16-2006, 03:38 AM
Early returns positive for new track By JAY PRIVMAN
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=78630&subs=0&arc=1
O'Neill said he is so impressed with the new surface that he has moved Horse of the Year candidate Lava Man back to Hollywood Park to train for his next start, which now most likely will be the Grade 2, $500,000 Goodwood Breeders' Cup Handicap at 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meeting on Oct. 7. O'Neill originally had planned on training Lava Man at Santa Anita in order to keep him on that track's conventional dirt surface. He also had considered the Grade 1, $250,000 Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at 1 1/4 miles on Sept. 30 as a possible next race. His ultimate goal is the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 4 at Churchill Downs.
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