exactor question

[turfbar]

In a 10 horse field, the first horse wins at 47-1
2nd horse places at 29-1, what does the exactor pay?

Guess it ,calculate it, give me a figure you think it PAYS

Turfbar

[Zman179]

Let's see. A ten horse field with a 47/1 winner and a 29/1 second choice.
After performing my exponentially-ratioed mathematical equations, which were then dividiplicated by §², I've come to the conclusion that the exactor should pay roughly $1,157.60, give or take a few thousand dollars.

[Overlay]

One rule of thumb I've seen (with no authentication of its accuracy) for use in cases where the information you gave is all you know, is to multiply the probable win payoff on the first-place horse by half the probable win payoff on the second-place horse. By that rule, the fair payoff (regardless of which horse was on top) would be $2,880.

[Overlay]

A slightly more refined estimate (specifically with the 47-1 on top): $2,800.

[sq764]

In a 10 horse field, the first horse wins at 47-1
2nd horse places at 29-1, what does the exactor pay?

Guess it ,calculate it, give me a figure you think it PAYS

Turfbar
I'll have to agree with Zman, around $1157.60

[GPneighbor]

A check of races run in 2004 revealed three close matches.

On October 16, 2004 at Keeneland, Race 9, (10 horse field), Revolutionary Act won at 49.2-1 and La Tache finished second at 29-1. The exacta paid $1,845.40.

On April 17, 2004 at Bay Meadows, Race 8, (12 horse field), the winner went off at 42.6-1 and the place horse at 29.2-1. The exacta paid $2,293.80.

On February 20, 2004 at Turfway Park, Race 12, (12 horse field), the winner was 48.6-1 and the place horse 28.9-1. The exacta paid $1,365.60.

[Pace Cap'n]

For most run-of-the-mill exactas, you can multiply the win payoff by the place payoff and be within 10% of the exacta payoff.

This is not so reliable with the boxcar payoffs, but can still be assumed to be a reasonable expectation. Therefore, I would peg the fair payout to be around $2250.

[twindouble]

One rule of thumb I've seen (with no authentication of its accuracy) for use in cases where the information you gave is all you know, is to multiply the probable win payoff on the first-place horse by half the probable win payoff on the second-place horse. By that rule, the fair payoff (regardless of which horse was on top) would be $2,880.

Well if they finsh in the order he posted. I think a fair guess would be around $1,500. Your right on the parlay.

[Ron]

In a 10 horse field, the first horse wins at 47-1
2nd horse places at 29-1, what does the exactor pay?

Guess it ,calculate it, give me a figure you think it PAYS

Turfbar

I assume that by asking the question you saw an exactor will-pay that was an extreme?

[Overlay]

Well if they finsh in the order he posted. I think a fair guess would be around $1,500. Your right on the parlay.

Thanks, twindouble. My error was in treating the listed odds as being based on a 100% line which, of course, they are not. Figuring in the higher take on exotics would reduce my projection to somewhere between $1,900 and $2,000.

[betchatoo]

It also greatly depends on the size of the pool.

[cj]

Fair payoff would be over $4,200 doing some quick math.

A 47-1 is 1/48 to win, which is 2.08%. However, accounting for takeout of approx 17% leave a real win% of 1.729%.

The odds of the 29 to 1 running second when the 47-1 wins are then calculated. This comes out to about 2.7% after accounting the takout and the fact the 47-1 has already won, so he no longer has to beat 100% of the field.

So, you take .01729 * .027 to get odds of 0.00046683, or .046683%. To get odds, you divide this into one, and subtract 1, which is about 2141 to 1. Multiply by 2, then add 2, to get the payoff. I get around 4,286 as a fair payoff.

Good luck seeing that in real life though.

[turfbar]

hey cj occurred yesterday at Arlingtons' 6th race
the 2 bombs beat the 3-5 entry and as the astute
Zman and Sq764 replied it paid $1157.60.

winner paid $96.80
place horse paid $21.40

in my world thats a shitty payoff

its so hard to beat this game

Turfbar

[cj]

I was just pointing out it doesn't really pay to play the huge bombs in exactas.

[traynor]

One rule of thumb I've seen (with no authentication of its accuracy) for use in cases where the information you gave is all you know, is to multiply the probable win payoff on the first-place horse by half the probable win payoff on the second-place horse. By that rule, the fair payoff (regardless of which horse was on top) would be $2,880.

Isn't that the formula used in Vegas for quiniela payoffs (with a cap of 30 to 1, or $30, or something equally absurd)?
Good Luck

[sq764]

hey cj occurred yesterday at Arlingtons' 6th race
the 2 bombs beat the 3-5 entry and as the astute
Zman and Sq764 replied it paid $1157.60.

winner paid $96.80
place horse paid $21.40

in my world thats a shitty payoff

its so hard to beat this game

Turfbar
Just be happy you don't play harness races at Pompano Park..
Try a 9/2 over 130/1 paying $25.80 exacta...

In the big picture your exacta was ok, all things considered :-)

[sq764]

I was just pointing out it doesn't really pay to play the huge bombs in exactas.
I would say no unless you are playing Evangeline Downs.. I have seen some insane payouts in the exacta... Of course the 14 horse fields don't hurt

[cj]

Dmr 3rd today, a 28-1 beats a 50-1. The 28-1, adjusting for takeout, has a 2.9% chance of winning the race. The 50-1, adjusting for takeout and the fact the 28-1 has already won, has approximately a 1.6% chance of running second.

The chance of the exacta coming in was .029 * .016, which is .000464, or .0464%. 1 / .00464 - 1 is the fair odds, or 2,154 to 1. The actual exacta paid $865.20, about 40% fair value.

This is of course assuming the odds were fair. One could certainly handicap and decide the public was wrong, and maybe even come up with that exacta being an overlay. However, most times, the bomb to bomb exactas are vastly overbet.

[sq764]

Dmr 3rd today, a 28-1 beats a 50-1. The 28-1, adjusting for takeout, has a 2.9% chance of winning the race. The 50-1, adjusting for takeout and the fact the 28-1 has already won, has approximately a 1.6% chance of running second.

The chance of the exacta coming in was .029 * .016, which is .000464, or .0464%. 1 / .00464 - 1 is the fair odds, or 2,154 to 1. The actual exacta paid $865.20, about 40% fair value.

This is of course assuming the odds were fair. One could certainly handicap and decide the public was wrong, and maybe even come up with that exacta being an overlay. However, most times, the bomb to bomb exactas are vastly overbet.
cj, that payout was for a buck

[cj]

Yes, I know that. Fair payoff for a buck was $2,155. I didn't convert to $2 since it was SoCal.