Pick 3 payouts as a tool

[Stick]

Was wondering if anyone uses the P3 payouts as a handicapping tool. The theory is that P3 players are serious players that have looked at the program ahead of time and that the P3 board is sharper than the win odds. !st senario: you handicap a horse will go off at odds on and is a $100 P3. Another horse you feel will go off about 5-1 is a $110 P3.The latter is obviously bet into the chalk in the P3 pool. 2nd senario: you handicap a race with 3 contenders having about equal chances. Payouts are A)$50 B) $55 And C) $165 with the last horse dropping and has a little time off. This P3 board says horse C is not live today. I am not saying this is an end all be all, but it can be used as a tool especially at tracks like Big M, OJC, Cal , where there are a lot of Pick 3,s carded.

[The Judge]

Why not the daily double, there have been a lot of work done on this(D.D) but I don't think any serious work in awhile.

[sq764]

Was wondering if anyone uses the P3 payouts as a handicapping tool. The theory is that P3 players are serious players that have looked at the program ahead of time and that the P3 board is sharper than the win odds. !st senario: you handicap a horse will go off at odds on and is a $100 P3. Another horse you feel will go off about 5-1 is a $110 P3.The latter is obviously bet into the chalk in the P3 pool. 2nd senario: you handicap a race with 3 contenders having about equal chances. Payouts are A)$50 B) $55 And C) $165 with the last horse dropping and has a little time off. This P3 board says horse C is not live today. I am not saying this is an end all be all, but it can be used as a tool especially at tracks like Big M, OJC, Cal , where there are a lot of Pick 3,s carded.
There used to be a 'system' out there called something like 'Mr Trifecta'.. The theory was you look at the pick 3 probable payouts, divide by the ML odds and you find the overlaid horses..

ex: Pick 3 payouts #1 horse 600, #2 500, #3 700

ML Odds - #1 6/1, #2, 5/1, #3 15/1

#1 would be 100/1 for pick 3, #2 100/1, #3 46/1

In theory #3 is getting bet harder in the 'hidden pools'

[Stick]

I have a few problems with this system. Bad M/L and scratches can cause problems. If you have looked at the race and have formed an opinion , a glance can tell you if something if different from your capping . To use an actual race as an example: I wanted to play a Late P4 Friday at Cal. They rarely get the 20K and you usually play with no take. I was 2 by 3 by 1 in the last three legs but did not have a strong opinion on the 7th except that I wanted to spread a little to try to catch a number.5 horses would get me a $30 ticket. The low P3 was the 10(probable chalk) at $57. The 1 ( TO BE NOBLE), who I did not really see as a contender, was paying $83. I used him and he returned 20.40. I did get knocked out in the 9th, but this is how it can be a help.

[traynor]

A lot of money goes into the Pick 3 pools from small bettors hoping to win big. Much is a response to recommendations, especially free ones. We have tried for several years to find useful trends and tendencies in mutuel pools, especially the Pick 3 (and rolling variations). After spending more hours than I care to admit analyzing and parsing data files, I think the idea of chasing "smart money" is an error.

That is not to say that Pick 3s are not predictable; I just don't think that trying to calculate what the "smart money" is doing is especially productive. In most cases, the "smart money" is as far off as the $2 bettor from Poughkeepsie. We spent quite awhile hammering the Pick 6 pools in Southern California, which probably has more "smart money" players than anywhere outside of Hong Kong. When you see betting syndicates putting together very large plays, day after day, and losing (with some of the best race analysts on the planet), it is hard to get worked up about what the "smart money" is doing or not doing. Just an opinion.
Good Luck

[melman]

I agree with your opinion on this subject Traynor. One item I think is helpful is in the first leg of a pic3 avoid the favorite or the second favorite as many of the pic money is "looking to hit no matter the payoff" and just cannot stand to have a losing ticket. Do you have any data on that Traynor??

[Stick]

Thanks for your feedback guys. Just keep an open mind. Remember, at a track like Cal on weekends the win pools are around 10K and the P3 pools are around 4 to 5K.This is not to say there is anything corrupt, just a better pool to hide $ in if a horse is live. Traynor, I respect your analysis, but it is pretty hard to put a black and white on something that is a subjective opinion by the handicapper. Did you use ML or final win odds or something else as your basis for comparison.

[JimG]

I agree with your opinion on this subject Traynor. One item I think is helpful is in the first leg of a pic3 avoid the favorite or the second favorite as many of the pic money is "looking to hit no matter the payoff" and just cannot stand to have a losing ticket. Do you have any data on that Traynor??

And to take it one step further, in the second and third legs look for horses that are not the first or second morning line favorite. When I play pick 3's I love it when both scenarios (yours above and mine) present themselves. I insist that one of the two scenarios occur in order to play the pick 3.

Jim

[Valuist]

It seems like the so-called "insiders" rarely use the multi-race exotics. You'll often see a 10-1 morning line horse open at 2-1 but may only be 5th choice or so in the Pic 3 will pay.

[sq764]

A lot of money goes into the Pick 3 pools from small bettors hoping to win big. Much is a response to recommendations, especially free ones. We have tried for several years to find useful trends and tendencies in mutuel pools, especially the Pick 3 (and rolling variations). After spending more hours than I care to admit analyzing and parsing data files, I think the idea of chasing "smart money" is an error.

That is not to say that Pick 3s are not predictable; I just don't think that trying to calculate what the "smart money" is doing is especially productive. In most cases, the "smart money" is as far off as the $2 bettor from Poughkeepsie. We spent quite awhile hammering the Pick 6 pools in Southern California, which probably has more "smart money" players than anywhere outside of Hong Kong. When you see betting syndicates putting together very large plays, day after day, and losing (with some of the best race analysts on the planet), it is hard to get worked up about what the "smart money" is doing or not doing. Just an opinion.
Good Luck
Your statements are likely true in regards to small harness tracks.. But if you watch the Meadowlands harness, there is a lot of smart money in the pick 3 pools and you can tell who is being bet from the payout probables..

Most of the small tracks have such tiny pools, it's almost impossible to derive any information from them. But I don't think it's true to blanketly say all pick 3 probable payouts tell you nothing.

[sq764]

It seems like the so-called "insiders" rarely use the multi-race exotics. You'll often see a 10-1 morning line horse open at 2-1 but may only be 5th choice or so in the Pic 3 will pay.
You'll also see this bet by a barn at times.. The reason it's not in the pick 3 pool is because there is no money to be made.

If your horse was ready to race tonight and you wanted to make some money, would you bet it into a $12,000 WPS pool at Indiana Downs or a $600 pick 3 pool?

[santanajimi]

The only place where you can use this theory is at BIG TRACKS...such as NYRA, So CAL,and others that handle atleast 10k in the pik whatever pools...

[1st time lasix]

I agree with your opinion on this subject Traynor. One item I think is helpful is in the first leg of a pic3 avoid the favorite or the second favorite as many of the pic money is "looking to hit no matter the payoff" and just cannot stand to have a losing ticket. Do you have any data on that Traynor?? I find this post interesting to me.....I have always thought {perhaps incorrectly} that i won't play the pick three or pick four unless I can upset a favorite in the first leg. I have called it the "avoid one" to my buddies before. The reduced takeout of using three or four in a row versus using the win pool in each leg is attractive. Wonder if this is a sound idea.

[toetoe]

Big Stick,

Good theory you raise, and well shot down in your subsequent post :ThmbUp:

I urge all, for the hundredth time, to check out the pick-threes/fours at the Ca. fairs, with or without the emerging breeds in any leg(s). Maybe because of the awful morning lines, three six-buckers and a ten-bucker will pay $600-plus, about 300% juice (NOT a rare aberration, I swear). Anyone with a feel for the fairs, which are often visibly biased and short-fielded, can spread a bit and score nicely.

[traynor]

Big Stick,

Good theory you raise, and well shot down in your subsequent post :ThmbUp:

I urge all, for the hundredth time, to check out the pick-threes/fours at the Ca. fairs, with or without the emerging breeds in any leg(s). Maybe because of the awful morning lines, three six-buckers and a ten-bucker will pay $600-plus, about 300% juice (NOT a rare aberration, I swear). Anyone with a feel for the fairs, which are often visibly biased and short-fielded, can spread a bit and score nicely.

You might be interested in another thread on the same topic started by cj. He (along with a LOT of other people) agree with you completely.
Good Luck