Can a Computer-Generated Fair Odds Line Accurately Adjust for Following:

[Turfday]

(1) A key negative or positive trainer change since last start.

(2) Very favorable or very negative trainer angles. Examples: great dirt trainer who does poorly with his turf stock. Great trainer who is lousy shortening horses up from route to sprinter.

(3) Track-to-track differences both on dirt and turf. What works at one track, may not work at another.

[sjk]

A computer generated odds line can adjust for any factor you care to incorporate. How accurate that adjustment will be depends on the quality of the analysis of the data used to measure the amount of adjustment.

For the first your could for example adjust the speed ratings of the horse by 20 times the difference in the new vs old trainer win percentage.

[Jeff P]

A computer generated odds line can adjust for any factor you care to incorporate. How accurate that adjustment will be depends on the quality of the analysis of the data used to measure the amount of adjustment. Bingo. Couldn't have said it better myself.



-jp

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[robert99]

It certainly does depend on the quality of the data but also on its relativity to all the other past and future performance factors that a horse possesses. The latter is the hard bit to program in. A trainer may be great, on average, at improving horses from other trainers but some will improve a lot but others even go backwards. Using averages for data input is a tricky issue when winning is about being above average.

[The Judge]

A computer can update after each race most don't but they can.

[kitts]

I have fun with my software (All-In-One V6) as it has a nudge button where you can enhance the horse's power rating a bit per click.

[rrbauer]

(1) A key negative or positive trainer change since last start.

(2) Very favorable or very negative trainer angles. Examples: great dirt trainer who does poorly with his turf stock. Great trainer who is lousy shortening horses up from route to sprinter.

(3) Track-to-track differences both on dirt and turf. What works at one track, may not work at another.

Can a non-Computer-Generated Fair Odds line be adjusted accurately for those factors? If the answer is "Yes", then the same algorithm can be used via the computer; so in essence, the "computer" has little to do with it other than to do some math.

[PlanB]

A Computer? Isn't the thinking still that "a computer ONLY does what it's
programmed to do? Or "whatever happened to AI?" Left to its own power
I think a computer doesn't know what to do except some banal calculations,
which it does very well. Now before you get ready to shout, think (recall?)
that the arithmetic functions are """""""built into"""""""""" every computer at
its micro level, so "its" born with those basic functions.