Odds

[keenang]

I had a very good friend (now deceased) who was a very good capper and the first thing he would do was eliminate any horse who was over 10 to 1 on the m/l. I was wondering if any of the data base boys had any idea what % of horses win that are over the 10 to 1 m/ll, I just did a very small run and came up with about 2%.

Thanks and Good Racing Luck
Geno ;)

[Stevie Belmont]

Sounds inane to me. What if horse is 15-1 morning line and fits?

[Valuist]

There's enough bad morning line makers to make this angle one you'd be best off avoiding.

[ratpack]

You may want to look into some Database programs that can keep track of the ML for you.

One of the programs I use is Maxcapper and it has a function where you can write your own SQL program. I wrote one to see how the ML do at all the tracks for Sprints, Routes, Dirt and turf. I did not use odds as a paramiter but I guess you could add that.


Select * from MT where RankMLO = 1 and MLO <> 0 and rdisttype = 'S' and rsurface in ('D') keyon = rtrack


I can't figure out how to copy the grid to here but a couple of examples are for dirt sprints ML:

SUF 44% win
CBY 17% win

Dirt Route

Fmt 11% win
Elp 41% win

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sounds like a blanket one-size-fits-all angle to me, without regard to other factors. If you want short-cut handicapping you can do that, but if you peruse payoff amounts at various tracks, you will see many tracks the vast majority of payoffs are on tote odds below 5-1. If I had to chose I say do not bet any 5-1+ and cut your 'capping time even more.
In my public handicapping I will often use 3 of the top 5 odds for my 3 picks, sometimes throw in a longshot, and I have +ROI. I find some tracks for a few days to 1 week goof me up though.
Ainsle has a table showing the loss is greater as odds go up as a blanket angle.

[Thunder Gulch]

I had a very good friend (now deceased) who was a very good capper and the first thing he would do was eliminate any horse who was over 10 to 1 on the m/l. I was wondering if any of the data base boys had any idea what % of horses win that are over the 10 to 1 m/ll, I just did a very small run and came up with about 2%.

Thanks and Good Racing Luck
Geno ;)

Horses over 20-1 have the worst ROI of any odds category at the track. I've seen studies where they lose $.40 on the dollar wagered. There was a time a few years ago where I automatically crossed these out figuring if there was anything to like, I probably wasn't going to find it or be able to convince myself to pull the trigger. Doing this probably didn't cost me any winners, but it did mess up my overall picture of how the race was run.

[keenang]

Stevie B.

With due respect to you, I have had a lot of 15 to 1 horses and higher That Fit but do they win?

Good racing luck
Geno

[skate]

yes, theydo win

[skate]

every day, and all the time. 15/1, 20/1, 40/1, hey they come in very regular.

seems like a lot of response to capping question, respond as if "one" were playing "all" or most of the races on a card.

which is fine with me.

as a rule, i think the general public tends to think this way also. people go the the track thinking, we are here to play.
where as the guy looking for a price, tends to wait for a play that "says throw out the chalk"

as the people that write "the books" tell us, heres an zample.
the 10th at DM 8/20 sun.
take a look at the chalk #3 (he'scrafty) (8/5?) hes at the top of his game, has good figures, BUT but but , he is not ready. at least that what i see.
this is where i would look for a price

[dav4463]

If you develop the knack of spotting 15-1 types that fit and you find a race where the top m/l horses are vulnerable, it's time to bet and you don't have to hit many to make it worthwhile. One $38.80 winner can make up for a lot of losses.

[Tom]

Keenang, I've seen that same thing but at 8-1 tops.
Depends on your startegy for playing.
Some people throw out the favorites.