Del Mar Spot Plays Monday (9/9)

[rrbauer]

Del Mar Monday September 9, 2002
Fast and Firm
Rails down (0 feet)

A couple spot plays and a story!

R1
Bush Triumph. What do you do when you have a horse that needs strong handling? Right! You get Mr. Pincay. Lafitt takes over for P Val (on a stewards’ holiday!) and you know right where he is going with this one: To the front and play some come-and-catch-me. I’m wanting 3-1 on this one.

R8
The story: Jose Silva recently “retired” as a trainer. The reason given from Mr. Silva: High cost of workmen’s comp insurance. The reason given from one of my backstretch “consultants”: HBPA and CHRB dogging him because of medication issues. Choose whichever story you like! Anyway, a longtime Silva client was Tricar Stables from NoCal. I guess that Sal Gonzalez was training Tricar’s horses over in Arizona (Yavapa which took the place of Prescott Downs) because Sal shows up yesterday with a firster sporting a couple works and it ran 3rd (Pixie Place Jig 33-1 and wants more ground). Today he shows up with Our Emerald (#12) with more than a couple good works; a great post, drawn outside the known speed; and, 10-1. Now I figure that Sal isn’t going to show up over here with a bunch of empty stalls. Here’s his chance to show the old homies that he’s become a good trainer over in Ariz and he has a couple horses to prove it! Get down folks!

I’m playing a P3 starting in R6 as follows:

$1 2/4/5/9 w 2/3/4/6/9 w 12 $20
$1 2/4 w 2/3/4/6/9 w 12 $10
$1 2/4/5/9 w 2/9 w 12 $8
$3 2/4 w 2/9 w 12 $12

Total $50 (keeping back a few bucks in case one of the P3 legs fails so I can go straight on ‘Emerald)….and play it underneath in a few ex’s.

BTW add on what you like in the 5th to the front of the first P3 bet to get your P4.

Psssst. We don’t need to tell everybody about this! :)

Go Baby Go!

[Derek2U]

Did anyone handicap Belmont's 9th race today, 9/9? What a
longshot win paying over $50 to win. Ummm ... but what I
find fascinating about this horse is its obvious profile. I boxed
this horse, Blond Dancer, Over the 3 favorites, and did not win
the exacta. Another LS emerged, paying over $20 to place.
EX: $1400 & a Super over $65k. sob sob ... I'd be interested
if anyone did handicap this race, particularly w/ a puter.

[cj]

D2U,

I didn't handicap that particular race, but I learned a lesson a long time ago the hard way. If I like a real longshot in the race, its because I DON'T like the favorites. If I am right about the horse, it almost always comes in with another longshot. This may or may not be true in your case, but it has helped me big time.

CJ

[GR1@HTR]

Derek,

This is my red board for the day. Using manual PL selection and looking at the end result this is what I had as my top 4 contenders:

Horse#....My Line....Off odds
3...3-1...43-1
12...7-2...7-1
7...6-1...24-1
8 6-1...1.6-1


I ended up betting 12, 7, and 3 to win. BTW, on the 7 I just took both of his last PL's to make the decision since I though it might run somewhere in between the good and bad figure.

[rrbauer]

This thread was about Del Mar....are you guys trying to tell me something?

Del Mar Monday September 9, 2002
Damage

R1
Bush Triumph. What do you do when you have a horse that needs strong handling? Right! You get Mr. Pincay. Lafitt takes over for P Val (on a stewards’ holiday!) and you know right where he is going with this one: To the front and play some come-and-catch-me. I’m wanting 3-1 on this one. Result When Stefandrew was a late scratch I knew that 3-1 wasn’t going to happen on GW (5/2 when I bet). If you saw the race then you know how much the best GW was. If you didn’t see the race just know that GW checked into the CH turn; checked out of the CH turn; ran the entire race in the 3, 4 and 5 paths; ran by the field at the top of the stretch when Lafitt pressed “Go”; and, was never touched by the whip. $6.60 on the win.

R8
The story: Jose Silva recently “retired” as a trainer. The reason given from Mr. Silva: High cost of workmen’s comp insurance. The reason given from one of my backstretch “consultants”: HBPA and CHRB dogging him because of medication issues. Choose whichever story you like! Anyway, a longtime Silva client was Tricar Stables from NoCal. I guess that Sal Gonzalez was training Tricar’s horses over in Arizona (Yavapa which took the place of Prescott Downs) because Sal shows up yesterday with a firster sporting a couple works and it ran 3rd (Pixie Place Jig 33-1 and wants more ground). Today he shows up with Our Emerald (#12) with more than a couple good works; a great post, drawn outside the known speed; and, 10-1. Now I figure that Sal isn’t going to show up over here with a bunch of empty stalls. Here’s his chance to show the old homies that he’s become a good trainer over in Ariz and he has a couple horses to prove it! Get down folks!

I’m playing a P3 starting in R6 as follows:

$1 2/4/5/9 w 2/3/4/6/9 w 12 $20 Live
$1 2/4 w 2/3/4/6/9 w 12 $10
$1 2/4/5/9 w 2/9 w 12 $8 Live
$3 2/4 w 2/9 w 12 $12

Total $50 (keeping back a few bucks in case one of the P3 legs fails so I can go straight on ‘Emerald)….and play it underneath in a few ex’s.

BTW add on what you like in the 5th to the front of the first P3 bet to get your P4.
Result
R6
Got the P3 started with Memori at $21.40.
R7
Kept the P3 going with Siberland at $4.60 (colt won this in huge fashion)
R8
Hot Topic popped and just blew this field away (the teletimer had the first ¼ in 19:4). ‘Emerald (9/2) was away OK and did move up and drop over into the turn and was 2nd into the stretch, but ‘Topic was about 6 lengths in front by then and ‘Emerald tired in the last 1/8th and ran 5th. Minus $50 on the P3 and minus $36 on the P4. The P3 was coming back $261 FWIW! Shoot!

[GR1@HTR]

Yeah I saw that quarter...Pretty fast for $25K maidens huh? Better put that horse in my cyber stable for next time...

[anotherdave]

Nice pick in the first. I've enjoyed your selections at Del Mar. You analyze the races well. One question on your pick on the eighth.

"Today he shows up with Our Emerald (#12) with more than a couple good works; a great post, drawn outside the known speed; and, 10-1"

I have never considered post 12 a great post for any race I can remember handicapping. You mention outside the known speed, but wouldn't you prefer him in post 2?

AD

[pic6vic]

RR

Don't give up on this horse. I thought the same way you did, however my workouts say he wanted to run longer. Maybe 6 1/2F
or 7F at Fairplrex or maybe a mile.

This trainer may be live at the fair.

[rrbauer]

GR-
They showed the qtr as 22.12 in the chart. I'm going to time it off a replay just for some sanity!


dave-
Re post position. I like the outside draw for firsters. There was other speed in the race with #7 Mr. J's Girl (Nakatani) and after the scratches 'Emerald was in the 10-hole....didn't matter with the way the winner freaked nothing at the bottom level could've run with that horse. One of those "good bet--bad result" situations. (As an aside-I prefer no blinkers when drawn outside but apparently they had worked it in blinks and liked the result.)

vic-
Carava claimed Our Emerald! It will win off the claim and probably be the favorite!!

Anyone that's interested:

You have to very careful with horses coming in from Utah and Arizona that appear to be firsters; especially this time of the year. They have a lot of 1- and 2-weekend fair meets in those states that are [b]not sanctioned[/] ergo they don't count as far as the rest of the world (outside their respective states) is concerned and their pp's never show up via Equibase/DRF. So you can have a "winner" showing up as a firster in another state. There will be some of those at the upcoming Fairplex meet!