Extreme Favorites

[sligg]

I'm always looking for the ultimate method that requires no handicapping and yet shows a profit no matter how small.

I took a subscription to TSN unlimited for $59.95 starting July 26, 2006 and explored the possibilities.

Here is what I have thus far:

Scanning all tracks I came up with a spot play

Bets: 34

Won: 21, 61.8%
Place: 34, 100%
Show: 34, 100%

Won ROI: 23.4
Place ROI: 36.5
Show ROI: 17.6

There were 2 bets today: one won and one placed.

Everyday I scan most of the tracks listed in TSN to determine the possible plays. The only drawback is having to wait until post time for each bet to determine the favorite status. Another drawback is spending a lot of time at the computer because the bets are spread all over the country and the different time zones. Most of the bets are at the smaller tracks so betting large sums would seriously impact the payoffs.

But still, 34 place bets and not a loser. I wonder if this a record of some kind.

A place or show parlay might be the way to bet. I'm a small bettor ($2.00)
and that's all I bet because I just know if I got serious with these results and bet larger sums, the spot play would probably tank.

My subscription expires at the end of the month and I will keep tracking and then post the final results. I'm waiting for the bottom to fall out.

100% indeed!

[ryesteve]

My subscription expires at the end of the month and I will keep tracking and then post the final results. I'm waiting for the bottom to fall out.

Why not just post what the method is, and someone with a few thousand TSN files can give you the results?

[Overlay]

Didn't Ainslie say something in his Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing about odds-on favorites yielding a profit of 5% when bet to place? (Of course, that was a while back.)

[Tom]

He offered up a system in the Woodside Associates newsletter. If the fav was odds on and second choice was at lest 5-2, bet to place.
His workouts of $20 place bets showed a profit at all NYRA tracks for I believe a three or six month period. This was in the 1980's.

[pjbc77]

Not sure about the 5% part, but Ainslie did say that you would make a profit by betting odds-on favorites to play in stakes races, at least as late as the third edition, which was in '86.

[betovernetcapper]

Sligg-youv'e done the work-got some promising results-Time to start doing some betting-given the small number of plays and unlikely long run outs-how bad could you get hurt best wishes

[kenwoodallpromos]

If my math is close, you had average payoffs of:
Win-$5.60
Place- $3.00
Show-$2.40

Sounds like early speed favorites on fast tracks1 Onlt 34 bets after scanning "all tracks" that must be about 1/2 the dirt races at several tracks. maybe my spot play of post 1-4 in sprints!

[dav4463]

Scan the consensus picks in the DRF. In races with fewer than 10 horses, bet to win/place on horses that are picked on top by all the selectors and a best bet by at least one selector. I read this somewhere, but haven't tracked it myself.

[formula_2002]

I seem to do better identifying the "BAD" favorites.
Current out of sample data base: program has favorites winning 40 of 170 races for flat bet .54 roi.
In that same set of races the non favorites 1010 horses, returned a flat bet loss of about 2%, while posting 127 wins (75% win rate). When the min odds are kept to >=4-1 there is a 2% profit (a dutch profit of 5 1/2%)
Hopefully, the data (and programer) are not too screwed up.
I'll post what I can in the selections forum for the next few days and see where it goes.

One other important piece of information.
Those bad favorites were selected from about 3056 races where the favorite won 37% of the time!!!

[formula_2002]

I seem to do better identifying the "BAD" favorites.
I'll post what I can in the selections forum for the next few days and see where it goes.


08/17/2006 selections post resulted in 3 playable races. The favorite lost but one race.

A dutch on the system plays, >=4-1, cost 1.6 units (16 plays),
that returned an roi of .62. But that one winner paid $96.00+ returning a 200% profit . That was an "out of the ordinary event" ;)

[Overlay]

Didn't Ainslie say something in his Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing about odds-on favorites yielding a profit of 5% when bet to place? (Of course, that was a while back.)

I finally looked up Ainslie's exact wording today. His statement about the 5% profit on place bets applied to odds-on favorites "in major handicaps, stakes, and featured allowance races at major tracks."