DEL_MAR 5th race.. never seen anything like this.... CRIMINAL

[Suff]

Please.. someone explain to me what happened at the gate in Del-Mars 5th race.... LATE JOCKEY CHANGE AT THE GATE???? on NUMBER 5 HALF WILD?????
They get the horse to the gate... something happened.. I could'nt see because I have xpressbet.com video and its limited. THEY GALLOPED THE HORSE BACK TO THE PADDOCK EXIT TO PICK UP THE REPLACEMENT JOCKEY>. THEN!!! They GALLLOPED THE HORSE BACK TO THE GATE... its at LEAST a FURLONG!!! MAYBE MORE... The GALLOP WAS STRONG,,, what happened? You run a Jockey out of
the Jock's room on a 15 second notice.. You OVER GALLOP the horse by TWO FURLONGS and you run him? he was 3rd at top of stretch,, Guess what he did? YUP! He backed up.... WHAT THE HELL IS DEL-MAR DOING... and on that POINT..
how does a 12,500 beat a 62,500 claimer by ten lenghths? CALIFORNIA RACING ShUCKS,,, and yes this is sour grapes Because I bet him.. BUT STILL

what happened? anybody know?

I Swear to GOD,, if you HAVE the DRF.. look at it.. if thats a NYRA race the 5 is
7-5... DOES CLASS MEAN ANYTHING IN CALIFORNIA?

[so.cal.fan]

Didn't see the race, but I know these horses and trainers.
I assume that F. Martinez got injured or ill at gate. They put up Vergara.
Doug O'Neil doesn't drop horses worth 50K down to 16K, unless they have gone bad.
Class does mean something in So. Cal. and I think the above example explains it.

[cj]

The rider was injured just prior to the race.

As for the 5, he won his last dirt race for 50k, ran on turf for 65k, then layed off and plunged to 16k...no thanks IMO!

CJ

[Tom]

Half Wild won two back for $50,000. Next out, he runs dull on the turf, a surface he showed a liking for three back. Then a layoff.
Today, he is dropping all the way to $16,000 - this is a negative class drop and an automatic throw out for me, especially with a three year old. If he was anything, why would they drop him, and off a layoff? I am sometimes wrogn on this type of horse, but usually, they are short prices and I don't mind missing them.
I think you said he was not the favorite? All the more reason to be suspicious.

JMHo, but I bet the jock refused to ride the horse-aybe he saw it was unsound and didn't want to take a chance? Probably be something in the news about this later on-will be interesting to see why they made the change.

And yes, I totally agree with you-it was completely bush league that way they handled it. The horse should have been scratched. No offense, SoCalFan, but I see far too many minor-league goings on out there to take California racing very seriously. I would much rather bet Mountaineer than Santa Anita, Delmar or Hollywood any day.

[Dave Schwartz]

Here is an interesting statistic from our database:

This factor represents the numerical class level difference from each horse's last race to today's race.

The sample was taken from:

Claiming races, $10k-20k, 6-9f, fast tracks, dirt, older horses, southern California, Jan 27, 1999 to the present.



CLst (Class of Last Race)
-------------------------
WIN BETS
Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
-3 234 13 5.6 $0.52 0.43 0.65
-2 332 35 10.5 $1.83 0.82 0.93
-1 1,125 119 10.6 $1.55 0.84 0.95
0 1,883 204 10.8 $1.34 0.88 0.97
1 1,680 240 14.3 $1.74 1.14 1.10
2 1,165 172 14.8 $1.69 1.17 1.03
above 1,557 210 13.5 $1.59 1.10 0.93




A -3 (minus three) means the last race was 3 levels or more lower than today. Note that these big risers could have been shippers from a lower-class track.

"Above" means the horse is dropping 3 levels or more. Note that this drop could have been from an allowance race.

The 3-level droppers are just not that bad.

Dave

[Dave Schwartz]

Same thing, but New York...




CLst
----
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
-3 49 5 10.2 $0.94 0.83 0.97
-2 104 12 11.5 $1.06 0.87 1.19
-1 369 46 12.5 $1.64 0.98 1.11
0 891 95 10.7 $1.61 0.83 0.88
1 689 86 12.5 $1.76 0.97 0.94
2 497 72 14.5 $1.79 1.14 1.03
above 461 75 16.3 $1.77 1.28 1.09





There are probably less races in New York because their class levels do not dip as far as $10k.

Dave Schwartz

[cj]

Dave ,

I would say, of course horses dropping 3 levels wouldn't be "that bad", big droppers should win more than their fair share.

This horse had WON for $50k two starts back, then was laid off one start later, and also is only 3 years old. IMO, the stats you provide show why samples from large databases are not always reliable in specific situations. This horse was obviously "for sale" and an obvious elimination in this spot.

CJ

[Dave Schwartz]

Sane stats, nationally (higher class tracks).



CLst
----
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
-3 804 66 8.2 $1.58 0.67 0.99
-2 1,212 129 10.6 $1.33 0.85 0.95
-1 2,605 328 12.6 $1.70 1.00 1.05
0 4,115 490 11.9 $1.62 0.96 0.99
1 4,124 520 12.6 $1.66 1.00 0.96
2 2,723 367 13.5 $1.71 1.07 0.95
above 3,086 440 14.3 $1.66 1.15 0.97

[Dave Schwartz]

CJ,

I think my real point here is that the prevailing wisdom is, "Any horse dropping 3+ classes is a bad bet." That is simply not true.

In fact, it is a case of another broad handicapping axiom being just plan wrong.

As you pointed out, it must be taken in context. But what is that context?

Dave

[freeneasy]

the horse was not a legitimate $62,000 claimer. he has never won for $62,000. His works were scarey slow. If the turf to dirt angle is going to have any validity there needs to be some recent racing taking place as in his 2nd and 3rd races back. Has had 3 layoffs, first two at 2 month intervals, but each time hes come off those two month layoffs hes run well and won the next times out. 3rd layoff at 160 days was followed by a 14 day layoff after his first comeback workout where the following rest of his workouts were all within 1 to 3 places of the slowest workouts for the day. When did they decide to put him in this race for $16,000? probably after the 2nd and 3rd works back at 6f, both being done in 1:19 and 1:17. they probably wanted to put him in for $10,000 but had they of completely dropped him to the cellar in one fell swoop, with no showing, would have probably of eliminated any possibility they might have had to get the animal claimed. You just cant hide a sore animal by dropping him 7 levels to the bottom of the barrel in a $10,000 claiming race. $16,000 may have given him a little bit better cover, but not much. He may have won if not for all the hoopla that went on, but Iam sure they wanted to get rid of this animal today as best they could. and I doubt that a drop from $62,000 to $10,000 would have put any claims in, $16,0000 mmmaybe. But with the 4 month layoff, the 14 day layoff after the first comeback work, the very poor looking workouts and the major drop in class as well as facing no less then 5 horses in good to very good current form and each racing at a very compatable distance makes it tough to see this horse all the way thru

[GameTheory]

I think people sometimes forget that the horse is DROPPING.

Yes, the horse has probably "gone bad" -- meaning he can't run to his previous competitive level. BUT, that doesn't mean he can't run at all. He doesn't have to run to his previous level to win -- the competition is much much easier now.

One of my favorite and most profitable spot plays, which I perfected at Santa Anita -- is a class drop (2 levels or more) with a layoff (with the right trainers). I've hit many 15-1 or better horses this way.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Dave ,

This horse was obviously "for sale" and an obvious elimination in this spot.

CJ

I agree with above........ they did everything but paste a damn sign on his ass...... and I agree that sometimes this drop isn't so bad, but only if I see decent works etc. I can stand getting beat by this guy, it won't happen that often. I spent some time at Del Mar last weekend and its an awful nice track. But I sure didn't like the way they treated some people (i.e. those who didn't have season tickets, lots of places off limits to joe average). I also was not impressed with the racing. But the place is very nice.

[Dave Schwartz]

And I cannot disagree either.

But some trainer's have such a reputation for stuff like this that their drops are ignored because the trainers just don't know what they are getting.

(This horse was claimed, I noticed.)

Dave

[smf]

Dave,

I checked equibase and bris... That horse was not claimed.

If I'm mistaken, I'd be interested in your data source.

Thanks.

[Suff]

drops are moves trainers make... Its a capping angle,, The ran and did'nt win... now someone repeatedly is saying He was AN OBVIOUS throw out... But THAT IS NOT WHAT THE THREAD WAS PRIMARILY ABOUT... Late jockey at gate... The Asst. starter.. with a PONY.. takes the the 5's reigns... GALLOPS HIM STRONGLY to the PAddock exit... PICKS UP THE REPLACEMENT JOCKEY... MEANWHILE THE OTHERT HORSES ARE LOADE ALREADY!!!!!!!!!! SO The asst. starter is husstling the 5,, I mean strongly Galloping the horse to an fro to get him lmounted and loaded quickly.. FORGET THE CLASS DROP... THIS BS!!!

[Suff]

There are probably less races in New York because their class levels do not dip as far as $10k.

Dave Schwartz [/

I don;t neccasarily agree with that theory. Class Drops.. wether they be two levels are three levels are not conditioned on the amount. NY has as many Class Levels as CALIFORNIA... I think the Intergrity of the Class's are better. Matter of fact I know they are... and if a 62,500 OPEN CLAIMER at NY ran reasonabley well at belmont... he would DESTROY a 12,500 claimer

question... if (-3) is three class drops.. I assume the (+1) is a class hike... and the location of the "Above" would indicate to me class hikes ABOVE (+2)

[so.cal.fan]

Sufferin'
Your point is well taken. They probably really had to hurry this post time up, because they had the "BLACK RUBY-TAZ" event coming up, and it was to be televised nationwide.
It is possible your selection may have run better.
They sometimes ask trainers if they want to scratch....most do not, especially if there was a claim involved.

[so.cal.fan]

Dave S.
Your data is accurate and makes sense. This has been the case for many years.
Class drops always win more than their fair share.
Class drops make sense, IF the horses look like they need easier company. We know that horses dropping from straight maiden to maiden claiming win more than their fair share.
It is always true.
Look, all I meant was that you have to use some business sense with these. Think of a horse as if you owned it.
You wouldn't give away a horse worth 20 for 10.
Unless.........your 20 horse was bad or about to go bad or cheaper than it appeared on paper in the first place.
You have to know the competition levels at your track.
If I have a three year old who wins at Del Mar for 20K, I jump him up to NW1X. He is not real competitive there........I try him at Oak Tree for 20K, he runs a weak 3rd. I lay up until the main SA meet....I look back at the horses HE BEAT at Del Mar and notice they haven't done much. Where do I run?
4year olds only- 16K. He may be competitive, if he is in sharp condition.
Now if my 3 year old won for 20K at Del Mar, ran back higher and was competitive, ran at the Hollywood fall meet....for better and did well.........against better horses......I would hesitate to drop right off the bat at Santa Anita.
Again......think good business.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
CJ,

I think my real point here is that the prevailing wisdom is, "Any horse dropping 3+ classes is a bad bet." That is simply not true.

In fact, it is a case of another broad handicapping axiom being just plan wrong.

As you pointed out, it must be taken in context. But what is that context?

Dave

I guess the applicable context here would be
1. 3YO Claiming horses dropping
2. this particular trainer dropping
3. 3YO claimiong horses dropping 3 levels after a layoff
4. this trainer droppinng a 3yo claimer 3 levels after a layoff.
5. 3YO claimers dropping 3 levels after a layoff, with a gate switch of riders and a hustling run to the paddock just as the gate loads? <G>

Gets complex quickly, dosen't it.
This is why I tend to stay away from trainer stats.

Here is a good example of how data analysis can be mis-leading:
Monday I drank scotch and tonic and got drunk
Tuesday I drank gin and tonic and got drunk
Wednesday I drank whiskey and tonic and got drunk
Thursday I drank Rye and tonic and got drunk.
Conclusion: The damn tonic is making me drunk!
<G>

What do you do if this guy wins 35% with droppers, but wins 8% with layoff horses? Which stat do you apply?

[Lefty]

The negative class drop is one I love to bet against. They are usually 7/5 or so when they look like this. SCal fans must be getting smarter cause horse went off 4-1. My horse ran 2nd in race.
BTW, I have seen this at other trks, jockey switch; take horse all the way back to barn and then back to gate. Cal not alone.
didn't pincay once refuse to ride a horse in Breeder's cup after warmup cause he said horse was not right and they put the english jock up and horse broke dn during race? Seems like I remember this; don't think it was a "geezer" dream.

[JustMissed]

I looked at the chart for the 5th race-looks to me like you had a good bet. Your horse was up close all the way and came in 5th, 1/2 length behind a good horse that won by 1 1/2. Your horses's odds were 4.4, pretty good bet.

You said that you bet on line. I don't but have heard you cannot change your bet when you bet on line. Is that true?

Also, I believe that the players at the track who had the horse in their field glasses might have had a chance to cancel their bet. If you were at the track, according to your disappointment with the jockey change, you might have cancelled your bet also. Let me know.

Thanks,

JustMissed
:)

[Dave Schwartz]

Sufferin,

The reason I said that the class level was the difference is because the SoCal data included 4 class levels, while the New York data only 2.

It is logical that 4 classes should produce more races than 2.



Dave

[freeneasy]

you have a number of catagories that are a working part of the class drop and layoff angle

1 level drop
2 lavel drop
3 level drop ect

1 level class drop, last race good, last race within 30 days
1 level class drop, last race bad, last race within 30 days
2 level class drop, l r g, l r w 30 d
2 level class drop, l r b, l r w 30 d

1 level class drop, last race good, last race within 45 days
1 level class drop, last race bad, last race with in 45 days
2 level class drop, ect
2 lavel class drop, ect

class drop, last race good/bad, last race within ?/? days, return distance, return level, clm, alw, ect

theres a number of ways in which a trainer can bring and is bringing a horse back to the races and a number of reasons why a trainer is bringing a horse back in a particular fashion, but like Tom said, you need a more informed catagory of trainer stats in order to have a better insight as to which particular type of situation a trainer may temporarily be excelling at.

maybe the trainer wins 0% with layoff horses of between 30 to 45 days but wins at 16% with layoff horses of between 45 to 60 days giving an avg. of 8%

and wins at 0% with horses dropping 1 level but wins at 70% ( yeah right) with horses dropping 2 levels giving an avg. of 35%

both of these catagories include all levels of class and the question here is, is at what % of winners does he have when he puts a horse in with a 45 to 60 day layoff ( 16% ), dropping two levels ( 35% ). The answer could be zero, even with the stats appearing as good as they are because of the other criterias involved with bringing this horse into this race. Generally speaking the horse might look like a standout according to the stats given but still may not fit the winning profile that a particular trainer does particularly well in. Now your getting into those peskey little things called Ants. Print out an Ant profile on trainer statistics and I'll bet trainer stats will appear in a different light

[freeneasy]

oh and Tom, get help paly ol' pal, get help, you cant even pretend to drink like that and exspect to stay healthy.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Sufferindowns
PICKS UP THE REPLACEMENT JOCKEY... MEANWHILE THE OTHERT HORSES ARE LOADE ALREADY!!!!!!!!!! SO The asst. starter is husstling the 5,, I mean strongly Galloping the horse to an fro to get him lmounted and loaded quickly.. FORGET THE CLASS DROP... THIS BS!!!

I had one at Penn National that escaped the gate without a jock. They chased him around the track back to the gate and then half way back around. Nabbed him, loaded jock on his back with about a two minute break. Off they go.......you can guess what happen to him. You can guess what happen to my $20 across too.....

[rrbauer]

The horse was one of the fastest horse in the race on the dirt at the distance....IF....it runs to its back numbers and with O'Neill doing very well off layoffs you have to like its chances; especially when it came out with no front wraps.

I was at the track and didn't understand why they had to bring the horse all the way back to the paddock area to pick up the rider.....they have lots of golf carts and small utility vehicles running around there that could be used to ferry the jock out to the gate area. So I think Sufferin's point about having to travel a couple furlongs each way to get the jock is valid. (I'm still trying to figure out how a jock can get a "minor" injury when he's being slowly ponied on the backstretch.)

As it turned out I had bet the 9 to win and used it underneath in ex's and tri's from the 5 and 7, so catching the exacta made the replacement-jock issue easy to forget! Besides, I was still licking my P6 wounds from race 4!

[Tom]

Originally posted by rrbauer
[B]
(I'm still trying to figure out how a jock can get a "minor" injury when he's being slowly ponied on the backstretch.)
/B]

Maybe he electrocuted himself checking his equipment???

[superfecta]

Originally posted by JustRalph


I had one at Penn National that escaped the gate without a jock. They chased him around the track back to the gate and then half way back around. Nabbed him, loaded jock on his back with about a two minute break. Off they go.......you can guess what happen to him. You can guess what happen to my $20 across too.....
I had a similar early experience,but with on exception,the horse won.I don't do that anymore,it had to be dumb luck cause thats the only horse I can remember to ever do that.
I also had a horse I bet on come down to the track from the paddock walking backwards,when he won I figured he had to be wound up before the race!:eek:

[rrbauer]

Tom wrote:
Maybe he electrocuted himself checking his equipment???

Comment:
Now there's a shocking thought!

:)