Luck

[cosmo96]

I appreciate everyone’s advice. I am not a professional, but I think my handicapping skills are good. At all handicapping levels, how much is just plain luck? I would like to hear about the luck factor. I would also like to hear opinions on what percentage of winning is based on solid handicapping or luck.

[pressman]

I have none someone once said id rather be lucky then good the 4th at del sat had a 4-2 it ran 2-4 25.80 to win $117 exacta i had zip if i could lucky 10% time ive made lots of $

[Overlay]

My opinion is that if you bet in agreement with established probabilities and performance patterns (rather than against them), the good breaks and bad breaks attributable to luck will even out over time.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I consider 5% bad luck and 5% good luck is involved when I handicap- the rest is up to me to handicap correctly to profit.
I am talking about factors that cannot be know based on information available- that is, hidden factors influencing the horse's race, the trip, luck of other horses competing.
The less information you utilize, the more luck is involved. Ca fairgoers depend a great deal on luck and many do not handicap all year.

[ryesteve]

what percentage of winning is based on solid handicapping or luck.
Solid handicapping = 100%
Luck = 0%

Yes, you will win and lose races via no fault of your own, but if these instances aren't happening randomly, then it's not really luck. For example, if you seem to bet on a lot of horses that get into trouble during a race, it might be because you're betting a proponderance of closers who are more likely to encounter traffic, or perhaps because you tend to like horses who encountered trouble in previous races... and often the horses who end up in trouble today are the same ones who ended up in trouble in their previous races.

[John]

I Read this every morning......

According to Richard Wiseman, these four principles can create good fortune in your life and career.


1. Maximize Chance Opportunities

Lucky people are skilled at creating, noticing, and acting upon chance opportunities. They do this in various ways, which include building and maintaining a strong network, adopting a relaxed attitude to life, and being open to new experiences.

2. Listen to Your Lucky Hunches

Lucky people make effective decisions by listening to their intuition and gut feelings. They also take steps to actively boost their intuitive abilities -- for example, by meditating and clearing their mind of other thoughts.

3. Expect Good Fortune

Lucky people are certain that the future will be bright. Over time, that expectation becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because it helps lucky people persist in the face of failure and positively shapes their interactions with other people.

4. Turn Bad Luck Into Good

Lucky people employ various psychological techniques to cope with, and even thrive upon, the ill fortune that comes their way. For example, they spontaneously imagine how things could have been worse, they don't dwell on the ill fortune, and they take control of the situation.
 :) :) :)

[Dave Schwartz]

Solid handicapping = 100%
Luck = 0%

There you have it.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[sq764]

I appreciate everyone’s advice. I am not a professional, but I think my handicapping skills are good. At all handicapping levels, how much is just plain luck? I would like to hear about the luck factor. I would also like to hear opinions on what percentage of winning is based on solid handicapping or luck.
I don't think luck is what people think it is..

Handicapping the race properly, wagering properly, then having your horse stumble is unfortunate, but not unlucky.

To me, luck is when someone plays a trifecta and accidentally plays it at the wrong track and it hits.

[wes]

THE MORE YOU LEARN THE MORE YOU EARN!

WES

[Boats]

When I win it's skill. When I lose it's bad luck.

[njcurveball]

With anything in life, there is something involved which we call luck. Even the 100% solid handicapping people have had their share of luck, both good and bad.

If there is money involved on the outcome of anything, luck will be involved.

A classic example is Jered Weaver's win the other night against the Yanks. He pitched great, yet Abreu hit a ball to right with two runners on and it was just close enough to the glove to be caught. Another few inches and the Yankees have the lead and a rally that may have ended Weaver's undefeated start.

Often horses are blocked at crucial points of the race. Some are left at the gate and who could have really predicted Barbaro's preakness mishap?

You really cannot put a percentage on luck and I agree with earlier posts that it certainly doesn't even out.

That is just one the risk factors we manage. It is much less likely to ruin good handicapping than some of the "medical" factors that go into the running of a race.

You have to just play the hand you are dealt. We have a great weapon in this game, we dont have to play every race. And with simulcasting, we can choose to play 10 races in 10 different states.

My greatest advice toyou is to check your attitude before putting up your hard earned money. If you are expecting something bad to happen, chances are it will. If you expect something good, the same.

I dont mean pollyanna smile and just say it will turn out good. I mean know in your heart and have that gut feeling you did the right thing. That is all you can do to feel right after the race, win or lose.

Jim

[skate]

"luck" must be realised, and the more you are able to recognize "luck", the more you take advantage, the swing goes both ways.

most players don't recognize "luck" . awareness is essential.
most, would rather think they are skilled to all angles, but when "chance" comes to play, walla, "Luck".

at all times, luck is involved, and i would say (to a degree) the higher your odds, the more luck will come to play.

so, 50%.

now that means i'm a bad capper, huh...

i hit bout 12%...

[ghostyapper]

After intently studying this game my whole life using the latest mathematical equations, I have come to the conclusion that it is exactly 51.3 percent skill, 37.2 percent luck and 11.5 percent "other"

[ryesteve]

You really cannot put a percentage on luck and I agree with earlier posts that it certainly doesn't even out.
Why wouldn't it?

[skate]

well, consider that we have "wisdom and insight a plenty" on this site.

and (if) capping is 100% skill, would this mean you always win, not bad.

and lets say you lost bout 50% of your play (the other guy of coarse), to what would the great "wisdomist" attribute the othe r50%?


the weather? that could be luck
the jock? ditto.

if you are that good (100% skill) we know you are not saying that you win 100%. but ifin you are that good with aalll that insight and wisdoms, to what dust tho attribute to the chance that you lost?
not that you'll ever do... but...

[pressman]

watch a movie 29th street or google the name frank pesce
hes the first guy to win th ny state lottery his whole life was due to LUCK

[John]

I think I said this before.

Bad Luck...at the wrong place,at the wrong time.

Good Luck...at the right place,at the right time

I can think of many times," Thank God " that I was in the right place.at the right time...[ Hey, That's how I got to meet my wife.]

:) :) :)

[skate]

hey man , i was there first, what up?:cool:

[Ron]

hey man , i was there first, what up?:cool:

Not all luck is good..:D

[ryesteve]

(if) capping is 100% skill, would this mean you always win
That doesn't follow at all. Just because something is 100% skill doesn't mean you'll always be successful. Take golfing... there's no luck involved when it comes to sinking a putt, but that doesn't mean it should always go in.

[098poi]

I don't know if luck is the proper term with horseracing. Some days your horse wins by a nose and some days he loses by a nose. That all balances out in the end. I think the unknown is what makes horseracing so difficult and so exciting. Not just the unknown of the trip but the unknowable of how your horse or any horse feels today. Will he fire, misfire or make a half hearted attempt? The horse that fired three races ago then fell flat then suddenly fires today in a way that makes even the trainer shrug his shoulders is what I'm talking about. If we were all physicists then we could bet on the movements of sub atomic particles and be right all the time. (Except when we were wrong! :D ) But we are betting on living creatures so there will always be unknown elements to any race.

[John]

Not all luck is good..:D



Who was it that said, "If it wasn't for bad luck I would have no luck at all."

:) :) :)

[Red Knave]

Who was it that said, "If it wasn't for bad luck I would have no luck at all."

:) :) :)
I know you already know the answer but it was Booker T Jones and William Bell in the song Born Under a Bad Sign.

If it wasnt for bad luck,
I wouldnt have no luck.
If it wasnt for real bad luck,
I wouldnt have no luck at all.

[John]

Thanks Red for the heads-up.

See you tomorrow









:) :) :)

[twindouble]

Luck is just unforeseen circumstances, changing conditions or critical events that change the out come. When a gambler is constantly unlucky as we say, he's doing something wrong, maybe many things. Same goes for the handicapper gambler.

A good handicapper can hold his own making money, when the above occurs has to be able to recognize the difference. When he can't recongnize the difference he has no way of knowing if it's good luck or bad luck and that's not good handicapping.

Handicapping doesn't end after the race win or lose.


T.D.

[njcurveball]

I love people who look at racing like a Math Test where there is only ONE RIGHT ANSWER AND IF YOU HANDICAP WELL, you have the right answer.

Luck is just that. You cannot measure it, you can only observe when it happens.

Let's say three of you smart handicappers bet the 5th race at Saratoga on Sunday. We will say you all bet to win.

Here are your selections and results.

Giant Chieftain, million dollar horse, iimpressive breeding, good first time starter trainer in Stanley Hough. Nice 4-1 odds and you watch as Castellano gets position and then swings wide around all the horses, five or more wide after being fractious at the gate. You are wondering when this horse will tire when he goes by everyone like Barbaro and now looks like a sure winner. With a strong rider, Javier Castellano pushing, the horse bolts and proceeds to run 7th! MUCH THE BEST horse, if you had to handicap the race in the stretch.

Inquisitive Pro, juicy 7-1 odds with Prado up. Shug stable and royally bred horse. Well placed the whole race, ground saving ride by Prado and at the wire, loses a head bob! Definitely the 2nd best horse in the race!

Kon Krete Kid, Bejarano takes this horse to the lead. Then the horse looks beat as Giant Cheiftain flys around him. Bejarno who may people on this board criticize, doesn't give up and not only keep sthe horse going, but wins a head bob at the wire. AND the win price is $95!

AND the favorite, Fernando Po was steadied sharply in traffic and then had to swing wide in the stretch to lose by a half length at 5-2. Would you say this horse was a WRONG choice?

One right answer? WHo would you say was lucky OR unlucky? ANd if you want to some "spin" try to tell me there is no luck involved in racing. :bang:

[twindouble]

I love people who look at racing like a Math Test where there is only ONE RIGHT ANSWER AND IF YOU HANDICAP WELL, you have the right answer.

Luck is just that. You cannot measure it, you can only observe when it happens.

Let's say three of you smart handicappers bet the 5th race at Saratoga on Sunday. We will say you all bet to win.

Here are your selections and results.

Giant Chieftain, million dollar horse, iimpressive breeding, good first time starter trainer in Stanley Hough. Nice 4-1 odds and you watch as Castellano gets position and then swings wide around all the horses, five or more wide after being fractious at the gate. You are wondering when this horse will tire when he goes by everyone like Barbaro and now looks like a sure winner. With a strong rider, Javier Castellano pushing, the horse bolts and proceeds to run 7th! MUCH THE BEST horse, if you had to handicap the race in the stretch. Unlucky ( first time out of the gate ) expect better next time out.

Inquisitive Pro, juicy 7-1 odds with Prado up. Shug stable and royally bred horse. Well placed the whole race, ground saving ride by Prado and at the wire, loses a head bob! Definitely the 2nd best horse in the race!

Kon Krete Kid, Bejarano takes this horse to the lead. Then the horse looks beat as Giant Cheiftain flys around him. Bejarno who may people on this board criticize, doesn't give up and not only keep sthe horse going, but wins a head bob at the wire. AND the win price is $95! Lucky

AND the favorite, Fernando Po was steadied sharply in traffic and then had to swing wide in the stretch to lose by a half length at 5-2. Would you say this horse was a WRONG choice? unlucky

One right answer? WHo would you say was lucky OR unlucky? ANd if you want to some "spin" try to tell me there is no luck involved in racing. :bang:

You did exactly what I said, your handicapping doesn't end after the race.

Fernando Po, Inquisitive Pro and Giant Chieftain would be added to my watch list. That don't mean they are sure bets next time out, if they are well placed or in lesser fields then you can step out. The could be the key to a good score and that's not luck.

Your more apt to be unlucky betting FTS.

Tough call on Inquisitive Pro, he ran his race but showed good form.

T.D.

[ryesteve]

f you want to some "spin" try to tell me there is no luck involved in racing. :bang:
I think you're missing the argument. No one is saying that there's not a random component (luck, if you will) involved in the outcome of >a race<. The argument is that >over time<, one should not be able to blame their lack of success on a lack of luck.

[njcurveball]

Ahhhhhhhhhh,


We both agree on WHAT HAPPENS, we just have different names for it. :jump:

I cant even tell you how many flavors of ice cream there are these days. I still get a vanilla/chocolate twist. You could get any other flavor, to me it is still ice cream. :-)

There is never going to be ONE and only ONE right answer in a horse race. But there will always be a black and white decision on whether you can cash your ticket.

I wish you nothing but tickets you can cash with very few you have to rip up!

best to you,
Jim

[slotterhaus]

Luck, "unforeseen circumstance" or the introduction of a "random component" mean vastly different things to different players. The win bettor feels the effect of a nasty turn of fortune far less than the extreme exotic player. My yearly profits are powerfully affected by all the 67-1 bottom keys who get nipped by plodding 9-2 second choices for 4th in 12 horse chaos-infested races. Opportunities for these types of scores can't be automatically summoned by handicapping after the race or watch lists.

I accept these results as an inevitable consequence of my chosen approach but, make no mistake, handicapping has little to do with it.

[twindouble]

Ahhhhhhhhhh,


We both agree on WHAT HAPPENS, we just have different names for it. :jump:

I cant even tell you how many flavors of ice cream there are these days. I still get a vanilla/chocolate twist. You could get any other flavor, to me it is still ice cream. :-)

There is never going to be ONE and only ONE right answer in a horse race. But there will always be a black and white decision on whether you can cash your ticket.

I wish you nothing but tickets you can cash with very few you have to rip up!

best to you, Jim


You threw me a curve, is the above responce to me or ryesteve?


T.D.