QUANTUM LINES FOR 08-14-2006

[formula_2002]

TWO play groups are presented. In the first group, play is to win.
Odds must be:
a. greater than 3-1 and greater than the min. odds
b. less than 3-1 but greater than the min odds. (“b” plays are for 7% rebate players only)

In the second group, if the listed horse’s tote board odd are less than 2-1,
dutch all remaining horses who’s tote board odds are >=5/2.
It’s not really necessary to play all the horses >=5/2, you can play anyone, especially the one you handicapped to win.
The point is, I’m picking the listed horse to lose, but his odds must be sufficiently low (<2-1) in order to make a profit on the remainder.
Good Luck

date track race pgno min-odds post
8/14/2006 FL R1 5 1.27 1:10
8/14/2006 SUF R2 5 1.33 1:12
8/14/2006 DEL R3 6 2.13 1:39
8/14/2006 FL R3 1 1.64 2:04
8/14/2006 SUF R4 10 3 2:06
8/14/2006 SAR R4 8 2.4 2:36
8/14/2006 SAR R4 11 5.37 2:36
8/14/2006 DEL R8 8 5.45 3:54
8/14/2006 SAR R7 6 3.76 4:14
8/14/2006 FL R8 4 2.42 4:19
8/14/2006 SUF R9 2 1.38 4:21
8/14/2006 DMR R1 8 2.07 5:00
8/14/2006 DMR R2 2 3.27 5:32
8/14/2006 DMR R4 7 2.08 6:35
8/14/2006 MNR R2 9 2.52 7:25
8/14/2006 MNR R3 2 3.15 7:50
8/14/2006 DMR R7 3 1.65 8:05
8/14/2006 DMR R7 5 3.5 8:05
8/14/2006 MNR R4 3 1.6 8:15
8/14/2006 MNR R5 7 1.48 8:40
8/14/2006 MNR R7 3 2.8 9:30
8/14/2006 MNR R8 1 4.49 9:55
8/14/2006 MNR R9 2 4.68 10:02


date track race pgno post
8/14/2006 SUF R1 3 12:04
8/14/2006 SAR R1 1 1:00
8/14/2006 DEL R3 7 1:39
8/14/2006 FL R4 1A 2:31
8/14/2006 FL R4 4 2:31
8/14/2006 FL R5 6 2:58
8/14/2006 SUF R6 3 3:00
8/14/2006 FL R6 1 3:25
8/14/2006 FL R7 1 3:52
8/14/2006 DEL R8 3 3:54
8/14/2006 FL R8 1 4:19
8/14/2006 MNR R5 5 8:40
8/14/2006 MNR R8 6 9:55

[formula_2002]

I'll add the pinnacle matchups here

Sar 4th 8/2 for -173
Dmr 6th 7/5 for -161

[formula_2002]

sar 1st, the listed horse went off at 9/5, the win 2-1

[formula_2002]

flx 6th, the listed horse went off at 3/5, and lost to a 5/2 shot.

the match play in sar 4th lost..
fl 3rd win play lost..

so far the "beat the beast" plays are 2 for 2

[formula_2002]

dmr 4th, caught a winner for the rebate players. (odds>min odds and <3-1) paid $6.80.
First such playable race of the day and it won.

[formula_2002]

won the dmr 6th match up

[formula_2002]

with two races remaining, the score looks like this;

>=3-1 plays 0 for 4, expected wins=.63
<3-1 plays 1 for 3 , expected wins=.89 (rebate plays) +rebate.
against the fav plays, 2 for 2, expected wins=1.42

actual wins=3 , total expected wins =2.94

In addition there were 2 match up plays
1 win in 2 plays
actual wins=1, expected wins =1.34

[formula_2002]

finals
>=3-1 plays 0 for 5, expected wins=.77
<3-1 plays 1 for 3 , expected wins=.89 (rebate plays) +rebate.
against the fav plays, 2 for 2, expected wins=1.42

actual wins=3 , total expected wins =3.08 (lees .02 rebate)= 3.06

what does all of that mean?
A book % size bet on each of the above 10 plays would have returned a .98 ROI (1-(3/3.06))

In addition there were 2 match up plays
1 win in 2 plays
actual wins=1, expected wins =1.34[/QUOTE]