jeebus1083
08-12-2006, 02:06 PM
Race 1: A.G. Vanderbilt SAR #7
The 6F distance at Saratoga has favored horses near or on the lead, within 2 1/4 lengths at the first call, and roughly 1 1/4 lengths at the 2nd call. The pacesetters in this race are AFRASHAD and BISHOP COURT HILL, who figure to light up the Spa dirt with torrid early fractions. According to my numbers, both of these horses possess a solid early pace advantage over the rest of the field. However, MASS MEDIA and WAR FRONT have the best turn times of the bunch, which will weigh in heavily should the front two horses kill each other up front. All things aside, these four are your main contenders. Since speed seems to be the trump card at Saratoga in sprints, I'm going to go out on a limb and use the pacemakers as my "A" horses, with the latter protecting me in backup combinations. I am hoping that one of the pacesetters separates themselves and puts on a speed show late.
Race 2: Beverly D. ARL #8
A turf race going 1 3/16 miles will surely favor sustained pace over early pace, so a standout like GORELLA shouldn't be ignored right? Positive: she does her best running when from off the pace, which is a style that should favor her here. Negative: her best races have come at the mile distance, so Leparoux will be forced to start a closing kick later, which with the added distance and weight, could work against her. At a short price, I don't find it wise to include on my main ticket, but I'd hate to risk my tickets being killed too, so she will be inserted as a backup. There are three other contenders that are worthy of being played as main inclusions, and all three offer tremendous value. The lightly raced WEND had a seemingly tough trip as favorite in her last start, and has seen limited action in the AM, but that 7F turn earlier this week looks encouraging and she should be ready for Mott and Gomez at decent odds. I see LIVE LIFE as live here, as her record at the longer distances is solid. She will stay close to the pace and will try and Espinoza will try and keep her to task late. Finally, FILM MAKER brings in solid form to the table, another mare who likes it long. Motion has prepped her dilligently for this contest, and she will certainly place her best run late. Dominguez, one of the top turf jockeys in the nation ensures a solid trip.
Race 3: Sword Dancer SAR #9
There is nobody better to single than RELAXED GESTURE, the class horse of the field, bar none. With the cream of the Turf Classic crop in Illinois, Clement stays smart and finds an easier placement for his horse, and at a distance that he can handle. For a Grade I, this is a lower G2/upper G3 at best, and if past performance tells me anything, class will prevail. I will live or die with RELAXED GESTURE.
Race 4: Arlington Million AP #9
CACIQUE and ENGLISH CHANNEL are perhaps the best Turf Classic horses in training right now. Both figure on getting decent ground saving trips for that sustained run down the lane. Very hard to separate these two, and with the Million always competitive, I don't find it hard to see these two as value and as logical main horses. I was hesitant to use BETTER TALK NOW and then decided to exclude, as I think he needs SHAKE THE BANK to rabbit his way around the track. THE TIN MAN from SoCal could set the fractions, but there are too many good horses in this race to set this up for him. I did include him on a very small P4, singling who I felt were the strongest mains, then spreading 4-deep in the Million. A horse I am keen on, and used as a backup is Ireland's ACE, who impressed in his two American starts at Belmont last fall. The race should unfold for him perfectly, and he looms as the most likely of the Europeans to steal the Million. SOLDIER HOLLOW and PHOENIX REACH will backup my short ticket, along with ACE and BETTER TALK NOW.
This is how my tickets are structured:
$2 P4 3-6/5-7-11/2/10-11 for $24
$1 P4 2-5/5-7-11/2/10-11 for $12
$1 P4 3-6/1/2/10-11 for $4
$1 P4 3-6/5-7-11/2/3 for $6
$1 P4 6/11/2/3-5-6-8 for $4
Each ticket is weighed on true odds and chances of victory. A very unorthodox way to spend $50, yet at the very same time, a smart and efficient way as well.
To those playing the National Pick Four today, best of luck!
The 6F distance at Saratoga has favored horses near or on the lead, within 2 1/4 lengths at the first call, and roughly 1 1/4 lengths at the 2nd call. The pacesetters in this race are AFRASHAD and BISHOP COURT HILL, who figure to light up the Spa dirt with torrid early fractions. According to my numbers, both of these horses possess a solid early pace advantage over the rest of the field. However, MASS MEDIA and WAR FRONT have the best turn times of the bunch, which will weigh in heavily should the front two horses kill each other up front. All things aside, these four are your main contenders. Since speed seems to be the trump card at Saratoga in sprints, I'm going to go out on a limb and use the pacemakers as my "A" horses, with the latter protecting me in backup combinations. I am hoping that one of the pacesetters separates themselves and puts on a speed show late.
Race 2: Beverly D. ARL #8
A turf race going 1 3/16 miles will surely favor sustained pace over early pace, so a standout like GORELLA shouldn't be ignored right? Positive: she does her best running when from off the pace, which is a style that should favor her here. Negative: her best races have come at the mile distance, so Leparoux will be forced to start a closing kick later, which with the added distance and weight, could work against her. At a short price, I don't find it wise to include on my main ticket, but I'd hate to risk my tickets being killed too, so she will be inserted as a backup. There are three other contenders that are worthy of being played as main inclusions, and all three offer tremendous value. The lightly raced WEND had a seemingly tough trip as favorite in her last start, and has seen limited action in the AM, but that 7F turn earlier this week looks encouraging and she should be ready for Mott and Gomez at decent odds. I see LIVE LIFE as live here, as her record at the longer distances is solid. She will stay close to the pace and will try and Espinoza will try and keep her to task late. Finally, FILM MAKER brings in solid form to the table, another mare who likes it long. Motion has prepped her dilligently for this contest, and she will certainly place her best run late. Dominguez, one of the top turf jockeys in the nation ensures a solid trip.
Race 3: Sword Dancer SAR #9
There is nobody better to single than RELAXED GESTURE, the class horse of the field, bar none. With the cream of the Turf Classic crop in Illinois, Clement stays smart and finds an easier placement for his horse, and at a distance that he can handle. For a Grade I, this is a lower G2/upper G3 at best, and if past performance tells me anything, class will prevail. I will live or die with RELAXED GESTURE.
Race 4: Arlington Million AP #9
CACIQUE and ENGLISH CHANNEL are perhaps the best Turf Classic horses in training right now. Both figure on getting decent ground saving trips for that sustained run down the lane. Very hard to separate these two, and with the Million always competitive, I don't find it hard to see these two as value and as logical main horses. I was hesitant to use BETTER TALK NOW and then decided to exclude, as I think he needs SHAKE THE BANK to rabbit his way around the track. THE TIN MAN from SoCal could set the fractions, but there are too many good horses in this race to set this up for him. I did include him on a very small P4, singling who I felt were the strongest mains, then spreading 4-deep in the Million. A horse I am keen on, and used as a backup is Ireland's ACE, who impressed in his two American starts at Belmont last fall. The race should unfold for him perfectly, and he looms as the most likely of the Europeans to steal the Million. SOLDIER HOLLOW and PHOENIX REACH will backup my short ticket, along with ACE and BETTER TALK NOW.
This is how my tickets are structured:
$2 P4 3-6/5-7-11/2/10-11 for $24
$1 P4 2-5/5-7-11/2/10-11 for $12
$1 P4 3-6/1/2/10-11 for $4
$1 P4 3-6/5-7-11/2/3 for $6
$1 P4 6/11/2/3-5-6-8 for $4
Each ticket is weighed on true odds and chances of victory. A very unorthodox way to spend $50, yet at the very same time, a smart and efficient way as well.
To those playing the National Pick Four today, best of luck!