Valuist
08-11-2006, 12:03 AM
Firm turf today and looks like little chance of any significant rainfall in the next two days so we should see firm going. Also, I checked William Hill and Ladbrokes books for their Antepost prices for the races. No prices posted; which leads me to believe the Euros don't like their chances much, or they just aren't that interested. Comparing the U.K. book prices to track odds re: Euro horses has been a very good angle in the past; too bad it can't be used here.
Beverly D-Contenders: Gorella- too bad she drew the rail because I'd love to try to beat her. Before we hand over the Eclipse award, it should be pointed out she's won twice in the U.S.; once at 1-2 odds and the other at 3-5 vs 3 opponents. Contender but will be overbet. Film Maker- she had to draw the 11 but I think she'll be fairly far back so hopefully she won't be too wide into the first turn. Hopefully she can win so we won't have to hear that Dynaformer offspring can't win a Grade 1 on turf. Solid contender; don't know if she'll be overbet. Honey Ryder-think she'll be a bit of value after beating whats perceived as a weak field. But she did overcome an insanely slow pace to get up. Overlay. Rich in Spirit- IMO, she should be 4 for 4 this year and wide trips did her in in the two defeats. Overlay. Wend- firm turf is a must for her but I still think she isn't the same horse she was last year.
Underlay. Rising Cross- its anybodys guess. THink she's probably hoping to crash the exacta or the tri but the likely hot, humid weather may doom her.
Million- English Channel- merits favoritism but I suspect he'll be overbet. He's got a bad post and enough speed to get hung out wide on the first turn. He also lost his only AP lawn race at under even $$. Cacique- don't think much separates him and EC and like EC, he's had several good trips. Contender but probably not an overlay. Ace- seems like the "wiseguy" horse here but there's several red flags. His last win was over 12 races ago (3 time beaten chalk during 2005-06). He's run well in the U.S. so Lasix may help him but both races were in the cooler air of Belmont last October. The running line in his June 21 race says "sweating" so he's a candidate to get washed out in the humid Chicago air. Good company lines but likely overbet on the win end. The Tin Man- looks like lone speed. Is Mandella/Victor E. Seems to be better than ever since Espinoza started riding him. Overlay. Phoenix Reach- might sound hypocritical liking this Euro when I've been talking down the others....but great company lines. Shipped to Canada to take the Canadian Int'l in 2003. Beat Powerscourt last year and finished in front of Alexander Goldrun in Singapore. Grade 1 winner on THREE different continents so shipping is no problem. The fact they'd ship this far off the layoff leads me to believe they think he's razor sharp. Overlay. Better Talk Now- would like him more if the turf would come up yielding, soft or good.
Secretariat--Showing Up will be a solid favorite and looked great in his only turf run. His only loss was the KY Derby. He did have an insane pace to close into last time which helped, no doubt. The one to beat but not worth the likely 4-5 price. Go Between-have to respect Mott in the 3YO turf stakes. Mott ran 1-2 in the American Derby and this one is better than the other two. He was beaten 4 by Showing Up in Virginia but he had the 13 hole while SU had the rail. Definitely expect him to close that 4 length gap significantly. Overlay. Proudinsky- first time Frankel and he ran a solid 2nd over the course (still convinced he won that photo finish) closing in on a lone speed winner. He probably will be best suited if the turf is on the softer side. The German breds seem to be on the improve, witness Shiracco in last years BC. Primary- already has won twice at 10 furlongs and likes firm going. He went to the lead in his first 2 2006 races but won his last coming from 10th so I'm guessing they'll stick w/off the pace tactics. Not much pace in here so we could see Showing Up and Go Between toward the front.
Beverly D-Contenders: Gorella- too bad she drew the rail because I'd love to try to beat her. Before we hand over the Eclipse award, it should be pointed out she's won twice in the U.S.; once at 1-2 odds and the other at 3-5 vs 3 opponents. Contender but will be overbet. Film Maker- she had to draw the 11 but I think she'll be fairly far back so hopefully she won't be too wide into the first turn. Hopefully she can win so we won't have to hear that Dynaformer offspring can't win a Grade 1 on turf. Solid contender; don't know if she'll be overbet. Honey Ryder-think she'll be a bit of value after beating whats perceived as a weak field. But she did overcome an insanely slow pace to get up. Overlay. Rich in Spirit- IMO, she should be 4 for 4 this year and wide trips did her in in the two defeats. Overlay. Wend- firm turf is a must for her but I still think she isn't the same horse she was last year.
Underlay. Rising Cross- its anybodys guess. THink she's probably hoping to crash the exacta or the tri but the likely hot, humid weather may doom her.
Million- English Channel- merits favoritism but I suspect he'll be overbet. He's got a bad post and enough speed to get hung out wide on the first turn. He also lost his only AP lawn race at under even $$. Cacique- don't think much separates him and EC and like EC, he's had several good trips. Contender but probably not an overlay. Ace- seems like the "wiseguy" horse here but there's several red flags. His last win was over 12 races ago (3 time beaten chalk during 2005-06). He's run well in the U.S. so Lasix may help him but both races were in the cooler air of Belmont last October. The running line in his June 21 race says "sweating" so he's a candidate to get washed out in the humid Chicago air. Good company lines but likely overbet on the win end. The Tin Man- looks like lone speed. Is Mandella/Victor E. Seems to be better than ever since Espinoza started riding him. Overlay. Phoenix Reach- might sound hypocritical liking this Euro when I've been talking down the others....but great company lines. Shipped to Canada to take the Canadian Int'l in 2003. Beat Powerscourt last year and finished in front of Alexander Goldrun in Singapore. Grade 1 winner on THREE different continents so shipping is no problem. The fact they'd ship this far off the layoff leads me to believe they think he's razor sharp. Overlay. Better Talk Now- would like him more if the turf would come up yielding, soft or good.
Secretariat--Showing Up will be a solid favorite and looked great in his only turf run. His only loss was the KY Derby. He did have an insane pace to close into last time which helped, no doubt. The one to beat but not worth the likely 4-5 price. Go Between-have to respect Mott in the 3YO turf stakes. Mott ran 1-2 in the American Derby and this one is better than the other two. He was beaten 4 by Showing Up in Virginia but he had the 13 hole while SU had the rail. Definitely expect him to close that 4 length gap significantly. Overlay. Proudinsky- first time Frankel and he ran a solid 2nd over the course (still convinced he won that photo finish) closing in on a lone speed winner. He probably will be best suited if the turf is on the softer side. The German breds seem to be on the improve, witness Shiracco in last years BC. Primary- already has won twice at 10 furlongs and likes firm going. He went to the lead in his first 2 2006 races but won his last coming from 10th so I'm guessing they'll stick w/off the pace tactics. Not much pace in here so we could see Showing Up and Go Between toward the front.