Pace/Math question

[douglasw32]

Okay anyone know what this one is called.

Using feet per second...

The 1st call 2f in sprints
4f in routes is added into the final time fps.

so a 6 furlong race is like 8f of feet per second ?

early+final

does this total have a name insome program or book ?

[cj]

Okay anyone know what this one is called.

Using feet per second...
...
does this total have a name insome program or book ?

A Douglas?

I've never seen this combination in any book, which means it might be worth exploring. :eek:

[kenwoodallpromos]

Wouldn't post position make a big difference in some races which start close to the turn?

[Pgh. Gere]

So is this rating always 1st Call (FPS) + Fin.Time (FPS), regardless of distance?

Like Horse A last race ; 1st Call 22.20 fin time 1:11.60 for 6 F

Horse B last race ; 1st Call 22.80 fin time 1:25.80 for 7 F

So are these totaled, 1st + final time or are they averaged or equated to 8f, as in your example?

[Overlay]

The measure you describe (whatever its formal designation might be as far as pace handicapping is concerned) looks like it would be designed to rate the ability of a horse to run a fast final time after setting or overcoming a fast early pace. If I'm interpreting it correctly, Ainslie used to employ something similar as his base figure for harness handicapping. He would evaluate a horse's performance in a past race by adding the leader's half-mile fraction in the race to the individual horse's own final time for the mile race, and then adjust the total for things like post position, driver, and racing parked out.

[Dave Schwartz]

In our software we call that FT+F1. It is averaged.

[douglasw32]

Overlay "adding the leader's half-mile fraction in the race to the individual horse's own final time for the mile race,"
cool that is what I had in mind, I did that for harness races at tioga downs and nailed a few in my head.

So i put up a spreadsheet to convert it to fps then ran some t-breds and it holds well as contender selection.

of course choosing a paceline is always the problem.

FT+F1 well theres a pace designation...so how does it hold up in the software?

pgh- regardless of distance (harness mainly run miles I noticed) but in the spreadsheet I just took the leaders 1/2 (or 1/4) then the final time...added them together.

Then combined the distance added to 4 furlongs (or 2 if sprint), converted to feet. - 8*lenghts back (8 feet per beaten length)

then divided to get fps.

Sounds goofy but it was hitting, so I figured well it must have been done elsewhere.

Ainslie (any idea if this in a book of his)

[BIG49010]

I look for this in Maiden races, usually a horse that the rates just off the speed and then makes big move to win as a first starter is a very nice horse.

Review the 7 horse in the 2nd race at Saratoga on Wednesday, you will see what I am talking about. Besides being an absolute monster to look at, he maybe something very special too. :rolleyes:

I think the Sartin people have a name for your factor, they like to add different parts of the race together.

[Dave Schwartz]

FT+F1 well theres a pace designation...so how does it hold up in the software?

It is simply another "model" factor. Works at some tracks/distances better than others.

[Tom]

I used to so that with BRIS pace and SR a long time ago.
Had several ratings:

E1+SR
TT+SR
LP+SR

I modeled them by distance/surface to see if any one had a edge at any time.
Did not get enough bang for the buck so I quit calculating them.

[BIG49010]

Tom,

Have another beer, or get some sleep?

[Pgh. Gere]

Douglas- I recently read an article by Mark Cramer, talking about using that measurement for harness racing.

Sounds like it's working well for T-breds as well. I would suspect it would be effective in cheaper races, maiden claimers and the like.

[douglasw32]

What happened is we have the new harness track close by-

So I am with my fiance and she says I want to go to that casino, I said "you mean the race track" she's like well that too. (lol) at least it gets me there, but we were allready out and about and I had no way of getting to a pc to download the trackmaster stuff.

So I am watching the first two, and I pick them looking at what I am describing but in a very crued way, I started out with the program and a premise that i should be comparing aplles to apples and not apples to oranges, so i was looking for any 5/8 mile track and then checking the half time of the race, and the final time of the horse to see if anyone had an edge.

Hit the next 3 in a row, thing is they were longer than expected, one was 8.00 one wass 11.00 or there about and one was very low.

I then came 2nd and 3rd in the next two and went inside and called it a day for the horses, while whatching her piss money away on those machines, I thought "what did I just do" I was looking at the program correctly so HOW DID I DO IT :)

well then I spent the next three nights building what is basically a fps calculator in excell.

nothing revolutionary but for little old me this is a big step.

So thanks as always, you have all at least reassured me that either I am not crazy or I am in good company ;)

I'll keep trying it and see what comes of it, unless someone with access or something and alot of files can just run it.

btw-no varient, no track to track etc, just the raw times.

IOt narrows it enough that fundamentals cn weed out the winner from there.

[Tom]

Tioga, right?
How big is the track - 1/2 mile?

[Overlay]

I believe it is a half-miler. (If it's like Yonkers and Roosevelt from back in my NYC days, you'll want to weigh post position fairly significantly also, then. It took a superior horse to win from outside the five post, and inside horses could win without a decided edge.)

[douglasw32]

Overlay- Thanks that is handy info. (I only go down there on weekends)

[classhandicapper]

If you want to explore 1st quarter pace, I it would be very helpful to have pace figures for every call. That way you can see how the race developed (acclerating or decelerating) relative to what is TYPICAL/AVERAGE for the class (I say typical since most races actually decelerate on dirt)

Years back I had figures like that for NY and did a bunch of studies on first call pace and race development. I don't have that kind of time anymore.

There is a correlation between 2F pace and race results in sprints. Even though 2F is also meaningful in routes, the 4F calls compares best.

For argument's sake, lets a say a particular class usually runs fractions like this:

22.3 46.1 111.4

If the first quarter goes in 23.1 or 23.2 instead, very often what will happen is that the 2nd quarter will pick up sharply and they will still reach the 1/2 mile point in 46.1 or 46.2. That means the 2nd quarter was very fast relative to normal (and absolutely considering it ws on a turn), which often makes it difficult for some of the closers to get into a position to win. Their usual middle run is into a 2nd quarter of 23.3 instead of 23. They either use themselves up "a little" trying or simply find themselves further behind at the 4F point than usual - ironically because the 2F pace was slow.

On the flip side, when the 2F call is fast it is often clear in the 4F call also because duels tend to extend past the 2F point. However there are occasions where you will see something like 22.1 46.1 and you can be pretty sure that extra effort early at least took at least a little out of the front runners even if they got a bit of a breather during the 2nd quarter and reached the 4F point in an average time.

Given two horses (all else being equal), I'll take the 22 45.4 111.4 horse over a 22.2 45.4. 111.4.

When studying most routes, the action between the 4F point and the 6F point is comparable to the above.

Most people use the 4F fraction in sprints and the 6F fraction in routes in combination with final time. I believe when a horse carries a fast pace over a longer distance like that is it more meaningful, but even carrying it over smaller distances like 2F often impacts results and final times even if not to the same degree.

[pressman]

the taulbot pace calulator gives similar rating uyou taks THE RACES 1/2 MILE TIME AND FINAL TIME THEN ADD IN HORSES TIME this shows what he did against the pace of race

[douglasw32]

Again thanks- classhandicapper-very interessting stuff and pressman-it seems like it just does what this pace calculator does.

I am going to post what it came up with for the 3rd at saratoga in the selections area.

[douglasw32]

Okay after posting in the picks section and getting some positive feedback, I took this whole idea and applied it to the world record times as a baseline like Charle caroll did in his book only this includes the addition of the pace call.


We'll see how it goes, just wanted to add in that needs to be done or routes come out alot slower than sprints in the fps's even though comparativly the route may be better.


this step solved that

[skate]

if you go round twice it'll be a mile

[pressman]

had an enlightenment today
walked to the corner bar did the first 1/2 mile in 8 mins the second mile in 22 min avg 11 min per half but probaly 10min and 12min thought gee just like a horse race!

[wes]

DID you drop any oats along the way :lol:

[pressman]

no but some nuts!

[shanta]

Here is an easy way to examine first quarter pace to determine contenders for today's race. Nothing high tech needed and with a bit of practice it really is pretty solid. Also can be done pretty quickly.

Let's take tomorrow's 1st race at Saratoga. It's a 7f race for claimers 35k.

To work this we have to project a leader at the first call. Let's say here it's gonna be the ml fav # 2 at 23.1

here are his pp's. again we are ONLY considering first call for this exercise to determine contenders and suitable pacelines to run thru software ( if we are using it).

[shanta]

now that we have the 1c look at each horse's pp's and find races where the 1c was the same as today's projected. Going 1 tick faster /slower is fine.


when u find a race suitable put your eye on the horse's POSITION at the first call. IGNORE beaten lenghts for this please. Now looking at POSITION only see how he "reacts" to that initial 1c pace by noticing his positions at the
2c-stretch call- finish.

What you are looking for right away are
1) horses that absolutely HATE the pace and just totally give up. you will see this pretty much right away man.

2) horses that LOVE the pace and seem to always run well against it.

for this exercise use RAW unadjusted data. things like Cd 6f races haveing extremely fast 1c times due to the runup will become readily noticeable when looking at OTHER lines on the horse's pp's.

for horses who show a fondness and react positively to the pace THESE are the usable pacelines for todays race. Simple.

horse's who dont like it are tossed.

the "grey area" guys who might like it 1 race and then don't need a bit closer examination to see if other factors were involved( poor break, trouble, outclassed etc etc)

a pretty unconventional contender/ paceline selection method.


here is the rest of the field

[shanta]

horse 3

[shanta]

horse 4

[shanta]

horse 5

[shanta]

horse 6

[shanta]

horse 7

[shanta]

finally horse 8

if you wanna try this with software

1) enter all usable lines where the horse reacted well ( both routes and sprints) to 1c between 23.0 and 23.2

2) determine visual running style of each horse and then look at your readouts. If the horse looks by his readouts that he might be out of position for his style against THIS matchup eliminate him and move to the next.

See what shakes out. Remember we have NEVER looked at 2nd call or looked at beaten lenghts to determine contenders / pacelines.

Pace is NOT the 2nd call. Most races have long been decided by then and what is seen is just reactionary to what happened at the break and running of the earliest parts of the race.




Richie :)

[Big Bill]

To work this we have to project a leader at the first call. Let's say here it's gonna be the ml fav # 2 at 23.1


Shanta,

Why wouldn't you have used the faster first call time of the 6 1/2 furlong race?

Big Bill

[shanta]

Shanta,

Why wouldn't you have used the faster first call time of the 6 1/2 furlong race?

Big Bill

Hi Bill,

Because the 6.5f line the horse was not actually the lead horse. I want to use a pace where the horse had the lead. This will closely ( hopefully) replicate what happens tomorrow when the gate opens.

last line on the 2 he " ducked in at the start" according to the comment line.
his last dirt race was at todays distance of 7f and he had the lead in 23.1
4 back at again the same distance as today he had the lead in 23.0

It's more of a positional thing then velocity Bill ok?

Richie

[Show Me the Wire]

Don't have sw. I like to play anyway.

The 2 with a clean break should be the quickest out of the gate and should have an easy one to two length lead a few strides into the race. And the 4 will be close behind out of the gate.

[46zilzal]

The agnomen COUNTER ENERGY finally gets it. Good.

[pressman]

i disagree pace call in sprints is 4f any cheap $4ooo claimer can turn in 22- 23 i prefer to see how they delt with 4f and from 4f home

[Show Me the Wire]

pressman:

I think Shanta is looking to see what horses are in position to win at the end of the first two furlongs. How they perform once in position is a matter for further analysis.

Is my assumption correct Shanta?

[shanta]

pressman:

I think Shanta is looking to see what horses are in position to win at the end of the first two furlongs. How they perform once in position is a matter for further analysis.

Is my assumption correct Shanta?

What I am looking for is to see if horses can hadle the initial pace of the race.

A horse who shows it can compete against a 45.0 half for example might not be able to do as well if the 1c pace leading up to that 45 is changed significantly from the race where it was competitive.

line A - 22.0 - 45.0 - 1:10
line B - 23.0 - 45.0 - 1:10

There very well could be 2 totally different reactions by the same horse when performing against these 2 running lines even though the 2c is the same.

Rich

[Show Me the Wire]

Good that is what I thought. So a horse that is comfortable, (not needing the lead), 1 second or 5 lengths ( using 5ths) behind the 22 second pace is competitive by being in position to win in the first 1/4 in a 45 second furlong call.

Conversly if it is a need the lead type he is not in position to win as he will use too much energy to maintain early position.

[Show Me the Wire]

And #3 Rocky Blues will be sitting behind them and should out kick the 2 and 4 in the stretch, based on the extra stamina gained from the turf route.

[Tom]

This was one of the exercises Michael Pizzola taught in workshops on prjecting the pace. Make a circle around every 1 at the first call. 2 by hd did NOT get a cricle - a head behind is not leading. Then cirlce the time associated with each circle. Do not use abberant times.
In this case, the circled times are:

23.1
23.0
24.4
23.1
24.2
22.2 abberant for this horse - nothing close it showing
23.2
23.3
24.0
23.1
23.0

Not sure where Ritchie is going with this, but my next step would be looking at the second calls of circled races, look at races where the horse was still leading and repeat the circle exercise.

We get

46.0
46.0
50.2
47.0
49.2
45.3 the abberant paceline
47.1
47.0
46.2
47.2


My pace set up for the race is 23.1 46.0

[pressman]

is a 1:11 a 1:11 or any time you want to discuss get back with an answer ill tell you NO

[shanta]

This was one of the exercises Michael Pizzola taught in workshops on prjecting the pace. Make a circle around every 1 at the first call. 2 by hd did NOT get a cricle - a head behind is not leading. Then cirlce the time associated with each circle. Do not use abberant times.
In this case, the circled times are:

23.1
23.0
24.4
23.1
24.2
22.2 abberant for this horse - nothing close it showing
23.2
23.3
24.0
23.1
23.0

Not sure where Ritchie is going with this, but my next step would be looking at the second calls of circled races, look at races where the horse was still leading and repeat the circle exercise.

We get

46.0
46.0
50.2
47.0
49.2
45.3 the abberant paceline
47.1
47.0
46.2
47.2


My pace set up for the race is 23.1 46.0

Tom,
Yes the steps u just laid out are what I was looking to. The process itself is very simplistic but in a lot of races it really gives a strong contender mix to proceed with.

Looking at raw data is a bit out of fashion with all the advanced stuff today but it still can help us "make sense" out of some races.

I kinda see the same setup as you do. 23.1- 46.0

Rich :)

[Tom]

is a 1:11 a 1:11 or any time you want to discuss get back with an answer ill tell you NO:confused:

[pressman]

hoping got some responses the way i wrote it
if a horse runs 1:10 and gets beat 5 l we assume a 1:11 a horse wins in 1:11 which is better assuming the beyer same (i doubt it) but DRF SPEED RATING SAME is what im gettting at

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey Shanta, in the past, folks have had to jump through hoops to get permission to duplicate DRF PPs in books they are trying to publish.

Do you really think they are going to let these stay up here on this site? Of course, if you have permission to reproduce them here......that's a different story....

[shanta]

Hey Shanta, in the past, folks have had to jump through hoops to get permission to duplicate DRF PPs in books they are trying to publish.

Do you really think they are going to let these stay up here on this site? Of course, if you have permission to reproduce them here......that's a different story....


I'll make the call today to find out.They are not Drf files but Post Time Daily. I know them pretty good but did not get permission. My bad man. sorry bout that Mike.
Rich

[PaceAdvantage]

Ooops....they looked like DRF to me....

The only reason I mention it is that you uploaded them onto my server....if you were linking to them on another server, then I wouldn't care as much....

[shanta]

Hey Shanta, in the past, folks have had to jump through hoops to get permission to duplicate DRF PPs in books they are trying to publish.

Do you really think they are going to let these stay up here on this site? Of course, if you have permission to reproduce them here......that's a different story....

Pace,

Ok permission is granted to post this one race up. The data comes from Equibase L.L.C.

I was asked NOT to do this repeatedly as that would be a problem so this will be the only one.

Thanx Post Time Daily!

Mike if you need confirmation here is the link to contact Doug.
http://www.posttimedaily.com/Contact.php

Richie

[shanta]

And #3 Rocky Blues will be sitting behind them and should out kick the 2 and 4 in the stretch, based on the extra stamina gained from the turf route.

Nice call on the winner # 3 - $ 14.80

the 2 doesnt break and 3 wires em. Pace - 23.0 - 46.1

Rich

[Show Me the Wire]

Shanta:

Thanks for the exercise. As we all can see it is difficult to project the actual pace leaders due to the choas and randomness, including jockey strategy, of the race. However, it is as easier task to predict the pace of the race and pick your contenders based on which may be in position to win.

The 2 horse walked out of the gate and the 4 horse was taken up. Couldn't tell if the 4 horse was taken up as strategy or was impeded. As a result the 3 horse was able to make an easy lead something it didn' t need and easily ran close to the projected fractions.

[PaceAdvantage]

Mike if you need confirmation here is the link to contact Doug.
http://www.posttimedaily.com/Contact.php

Richie

No confirmation needed....I trust ya! Thanks for obtaining permission, and sorry for being a pain!

BTW, whose speed fig is PTD using? Is it proprietary to PTD?

[shanta]

BTW, whose speed fig is PTD using? Is it proprietary to PTD?

Yes they are "homegrown".

I like the files because of the many filtering options available. Also tandem races are easily seen which I use a lot when working races.

They also contain Danny Serra's excellent turf and off track numbers.

One drawback for players who use trainer stuff is that they are not available like you get with Drf.

The customer support at Post Time Daily is the best in the business.

Richie