wanted free psychiatric advice!

[anotherdave]

So last week I finished a 14 for 24 run. Beautiful including a few 8-1 and 10-1 shots. Then boom I am now 0 for 16. Overall 14 for 40 and a nice profit, but nowhere near as nice as 16 bets ago. I have kept pretty cool considering. Today my first two bets broke in the air at the start. Still I'm ok, but I'm beginning to get frustrated.

Funny, if those 16 wins were nicely distributed over the 40 races, I'd be quite pleased with my performance. If I started 0 for 16 and then went 14 for 24, I'd feel great. But it is the other way around and it is getting a bit irritating. Any tips on dealing with losing (and winning) streaks?

Thanks

[baravot]

anotherdave,

Here's a tip that may seem strange: check out your biorhythm chart. Since you apparently are keeping a record of your wagers, it should be relatively easy to compare your winning periods and losing periods to your biorhythms. I don't know if you'll discern a pattern, but hey, it's worth a shot. Horses have form cycles, so do we.

[Dick Schmidt]

Anotherdave,

My own personal way of dealing with loosing streaks was to bury them in data. Keep records of all your bets over a period of years, and the little ups and downs of 0 for 16 here, 12 for 24 there just melt into the background. My worst loosing streak was 19 days while playing mostly pick-3s. I cashed some tickets during that time, but I went 19 days without showing a profit even once on the day. It happened that the 19 days spanned two months. When I forced myself to go back and look at that time, I was amazed that the streak was hard to find. I made money both months, and the streak just became part of my play for that year.

Something we all do is forget that we aren't that good when we do really well for a short period, and that we will come back to our average over time. The correction can be painful in the short run, but streaks are a part of racing.

Dick

P.S. I also find that beating my head against a sturdy wall and screaming quite loudly helps some. Not enough, but some.


P.P.S. Love the name.

[Rick Ransom]

anotherdave,

Dick's advice is pretty much exactly what I would have said. One of the pros that I knew went back over records he had from many years past when he had a losing streak. When he saw that he could find the same kind of streak occur several times in his past records, he stopped worrying about it.

I have records for over 2000 races for my current method, and I can see the same thing. But I also notice big differences between tracks, so I'm shopping now for the tracks that fit my method best.

My most painful memory is from a few years ago at Belmont, when I had two horses at good odds disqualified in the same day. I can also remember several times when I couldn't win but finished 2nd race after race after race. I have a picture in my office of a triple dead heat which reminds me that anything can happen, and eventually will.

[Dr.Larry]

anotherdave,
>>any tips on dealing with losing (and winning)
streaks?<<

Dick and Rick seem to be able to handle streaks
Philosophically. They suggest that looking at the
bigger picture helps them get control over their
emotions. They deserve credit, since they are in
the minority.

Best advice for most people is the simple rule that
you increase bets when on a winning streak and
decrease bets or even STOP when you are losing.
Think of the song, You gotta know when to hold em
.... Best of Luck!! Larry

[anotherdave]

Well I lost my first 2 bets today (made it 0 for 18) and then found the answer. A $46.60 winner in the 3rd at Woodbine in a photo. Sometimes the racing gods work for you too! Thanks for all the advice!

[Rick Ransom]

anotherdave,

Good think you didn't stop betting or decrease your bet size. Dr. Larry would have had to hide under a rock. Just kidding, though. What he says could be right sometimes, but I'd only do that when something has definitely changed (new track, bad weather, etc.). Otherwise, if has worked before at this meet, stick with it.

Things don't tend to change that much during a meet, even track bias, in my experience. At a well maintained track, when an extreme bias develops the track maintenance guys try to eliminate it as soon as possible. So you can really get hurt thinking that yesterday's bias will be the same today. It may even be the opposite if they over-correct for the problem.

On the other hand, when a new meet starts anything is possible. If there is a new owner or the horsemen complained a lot about the track during the previous meet, they might dig the whole track up and all of your data from previous years may be useless.

I think the trend these days is to create a "fair" track because horses break down less often and horses with different running styles can win races. This tends to please a larger percentage of the horsemen.

[Dave Schwartz]

Rick,

Talk about bad streaks, in the early 90s I was just recovering from a losing streak and played two horses that went to the wire together, clearly beating a 3rd horse. Both were good prices and I was looking forward to at least an $18 mutuel.

Instead BOTH horses were taken down, one placed 2nd and the other last. Talk about feeling like "The Beat Goes On;" boy was that frustrating.

I certainly agree with you and Dick... the answer lies in record keeping because that is what convinces you that you are in the right profession.

[Dr.Larry]

anotherdave,
Really happy that you were able to recover with
that winner!

Despite Rick's comment, I still stand by what I wrote.
You were not feeling right about things and were
asking for help. You were not secure . Most of
the time things just go downhill from there.

Best of Luck!...Larry

[Rick Ransom]

Dave,

I can't top that for a bad beat, and hope I never can! A couple of my friends in Vegas played a spot play on claimed horses for years on a daily basis that got about 18% wins and 15% profit on about 350-400 plays a year at all tracks. Well, the method once went through a 26 race losing streak.

One guy had a long history of playing horses and it didn't bother him. The other guy had only been playing for a couple of years and it totally freaked him out. At that point he had won a considerable amount of money, having started with a $200 bankroll and was now making $200 bets. So it was all won money. The experienced guy talked him into hanging in there for a while, and sure enough things turned around.

But the experience did affect the guy. The next year they went through a big winning streak, and the nervous guy decided to cash in. He took his winnings, bought a truck and boat, and changed his hobby to fishing. I never saw him bet a horse again. But he was retired, so he didn't need the money anyway.

Dr. Larry,

Just kidding with you. I know you had good intentions, and it could have gone the other way. I had the benefit of hindsight here, so I couldn't resist giving you a hard time.

Dick,

Your previous comments on winning and losing streaks sound like you were betting one horse per race. I was always under the impression that you bet two per race. Please clarify.

[baravot]

anotherdave,

Congratulations on busting out of your losing streak. Do you have any opinion about what helped you bust it?

[anotherdave]

Not sure what caused me to bust it. Maybe it was just letting loose some steam on this board. Somehow it felt good just to tell somebody. Perhaps it relaxed me.

Perhaps it is because I bet strictly flat bets and I concentrated on the handicapping. In the long ago past I used to start to increase my wagers when I was down due to lack of discipline. Then I'd be broke. Then I tried decreasing with bankroll, but the inevitable win would come in and I'd have 1/2 what I normally would have had on it and that was psychologically irritating. Now it is strictly flat betting. I have a bankroll of at least 100 times my bet. That makes the losing streaks a little less scary, but this one really had me worried. My horses weren't even close most of the time.

Ended up the day 4 for 9. No more 22-1 shots though!
Thanks to all for the advice. It is sincerely appreciated.

[baravot]

anotherdave,

I had the exact same thought when I asked the question, i.e., I was thinking your choice to openly acknowledge your frustration may have been the key. Sort of like a "confession is good for the soul" sort of thing. Seems like you have a good handle on managing the psychological aspects of this game.

[Tom]

Sometines you have to take some time off-go to a movie, read a spy thriller, go bowling, go to a ball game.
do something not in your usual routine to clean out your mind. I used to use the annual Sartin seminars in Albany to go and "re-charge" myself. Nowadays, with simulcastin available, I sometimes go and play a track I don't usually play, with no local knowledge and use a totally different method of handicapping, not looking to win but to shake out the cobwebbs that can build up.
You have to have the mental attitude to keep going.
Doc Sartin used to tell us not to look at the results of one day but to look at 20 race cycles, in other words, focus on the long run, not the short run.
Good luck.
Tom

[so.cal.fan]

Years ago, I read an article in a racing magazine, I wish I could remember the author.
He described winning and losing streaks as:
The Messiah Complex ("I can walk on water")
The Job Complex ("why me, again?)
Either complex is a disaster!
The big key is to remain balanced. I have never forgot this article.
I try to get centered, every time I fall into one of these patterns.
I have to admit, I am not always successful, but I am constantly working on it!

[Dick Schmidt]

Rick Ransom,

During the losing streak I described, I was mostly playing pick-3s because I felt at that time they were being bet very poorly by the public. In almost every race, I used 3 horses. My win % at that time with 3 horses was about 70%, which isn't bad considering I had to play every race. This means my expectation of winning a pick 3 was about 35% (.7 x .7 x .7). As I could only make 12 or 13 bets a day, a 19 day losing streak isn't unlikely. Remember, I did cash several tickets during that time, I just didn't turn a profit on the day. My point was that though a losing streak is hard to go through, when it is over you can usually see that it is just part of the overall pattern of your play. Same with winning streaks, though no one seems to complain about them.

Dick

[Rick Ransom]

Dick,

Thanks for the explanation. I like playing Pick 3s too, because of the leverage you get. But only if you can do better than the public at all kinds of races, so I wouldn't recommend it to everyone. I usually use 2 per race because the ROI is better, but it does increase the losing streaks a lot. My top two get about 50%, so it's (0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5) 12.5% for me. As I've pointed out elsewhere, I don't think you even need to break even on those top two selections to win at the Pick 3 because of the leverage.

[smf]

Anotherdave,

One thing to consider during a losing streak is > "are you doing anything different or trying something new" while going thru the dry spell. Anything that may be stealing your focus/ attention?

For 4 weeks recently I was looking at WO claims (and wagering only on LS all the while) and went into a nice, deep slump-- second-itis deluxe. Two weeks ago I stopped looking at WO and all of a sudden LS looks "easy?" again.

Last January this same scene played out. Hopefully I finally learned the lesson.

If that wasn't the problem you had..., nevermind!

Btw, one good piece of advice on handling streaks is what I picked up from you months back on this board. You posted that you had a set bankroll and used win wagers only. To eliminate confusion, if it was a good bet, then you bet it to win. If it didn't look like a good win bet, pass until you find a good one to swing at. Made sense to me, as it eliminated any "cuteness" or shortcut- wagers.

That is as good a bit of advice on handling streaks as I've seen. Kinda like 'putting your foot down to keep the room from spinning' type of logic.

[Dick Schmidt]

Rick Ransom,

What I did with pick-3s was to use play on paper using 5 horses per race. I ranked my choices and then looked at how I did using 1 horse per race, 2 horses per race and so on up to 5. I found that three was the most profitable for me, but that doesn't say anything about anyone else. As long as you're handicapping the races, you might give it a try. 12.5% can give you some mighty long losing streaks, as I'm sure you've noticed. I cry too easily for that.

Dick

[Rick Ransom]

Dick,

Yeah, I don't play them with serious money because of the losing streaks. But I was profitable on Pick 3s before I was on win betting and I think this would be true for a lot of others who are "almost there". My records show two to be the best for me, but I don't think I have the kind of edge that you had. Some may only be able to bet one. Taxes would be a big consideration if you use a lot of longshots, too.

Have you ever played exactas? I've done pretty well using 1st ranked on top and 2nd and 3rd on the bottom. I think I could play trifectas too, going down to 5th choice on the bottom.

[baravot]

Now I have a question for you: what do you consider the single most important psychological attribute/virtue to cultivate to be a successful player?

[GR1@HTR]

Losing Streaks...Nothing to do but bend over and take them....Below is a chart from Barry Meadow Monthly...

Highest number of consecutive wins/losses out of a series of one million bets:


Hit Rate Wins Losses
5% 5 220
10% 5 110
15% 6 74
20% 9 71
25% 10 44
30% 13 37
35% 13 30
40% 13 30
45% 18 27
50% 18 21

[Rick Ransom]

What really upsets me more than anything is breaking a losing streak with a small win, then starting another one right after that. It's not only how many you lose in a row, but how many bets you are down in, say the last 50 plays. I usually keep track of my average finish position to tell me if I'm consistently up close or getting beaten badly. If the average is low, the winners will usually eventually come. Another thing you can do is look at your ROI to show. If you're breaking even or even losing a little bit to show, you almost surely have a winning method (on win bets).