ryesteve
08-09-2006, 07:07 PM
This is something that has me wondering: when there is a wide discrepancy in the odds between the win pool and odds lines in the matchups at Pinnacle and Betcris, which one would you think would tend to be the accurate one? On the one hand, the win pool has more money in it (most likely) but the matchup lines are the product of bets placed by people who are presumably more savvy than the average player betting into the win pool. Then again, the win pool respresents a wide cross-section of opinions, whereas the matchup lines might be the product of a very small group of people (or in an extreme case, a single individual) with a very strong opinion.
Take the following example: the ML odds of two horses in a matchup are 4-1 and 8-1. When the line is first posted, the line is -182/+166, which is typical for what you'd see with this kind of ML discrepancy. However, the 8-1 horse starts taking money immediately. By the late evening, it's down to +130. By the next morning, +110. By mid-morning, he's now the matchup favorite at -120. By the afternoon, he's -145... and by the time the betting is about to close, he's -172. Now, there's a good chance that this is just an example of a criminally incompetent morning line; however, let's say that by looking at the exotic will-pays into this race, you can deduce that these two horses really will be bet in accordance with their morning line odds.
So, it's clear that at least one set of odds is very far off. So what do you do? Your options would be:
1) Figure that the 4-1 horse represents a fantastic overlay in the matchup, and bet it enthusiastically.
2) Figure that the deluge of money on the 8-1 horse represents information you wouldn't otherwise have that indicates the 8-1 shot is very live, or the 4-1 shot is very dead, or both. So you enthusiastically pound the 8-1 shot in the straight pool, and hook it up with everything but the 4-1 shot in the exotics.
3) Assume the truth lies somewhere in the middle, assume both opportunities represent an overlay, and bet accordingly.
4) Screw "value" and just follow the money trail and bet the 8-1 horse in the matchup.
5) Keep your money in your pocket. Something about this race smells really weird.
Take the following example: the ML odds of two horses in a matchup are 4-1 and 8-1. When the line is first posted, the line is -182/+166, which is typical for what you'd see with this kind of ML discrepancy. However, the 8-1 horse starts taking money immediately. By the late evening, it's down to +130. By the next morning, +110. By mid-morning, he's now the matchup favorite at -120. By the afternoon, he's -145... and by the time the betting is about to close, he's -172. Now, there's a good chance that this is just an example of a criminally incompetent morning line; however, let's say that by looking at the exotic will-pays into this race, you can deduce that these two horses really will be bet in accordance with their morning line odds.
So, it's clear that at least one set of odds is very far off. So what do you do? Your options would be:
1) Figure that the 4-1 horse represents a fantastic overlay in the matchup, and bet it enthusiastically.
2) Figure that the deluge of money on the 8-1 horse represents information you wouldn't otherwise have that indicates the 8-1 shot is very live, or the 4-1 shot is very dead, or both. So you enthusiastically pound the 8-1 shot in the straight pool, and hook it up with everything but the 4-1 shot in the exotics.
3) Assume the truth lies somewhere in the middle, assume both opportunities represent an overlay, and bet accordingly.
4) Screw "value" and just follow the money trail and bet the 8-1 horse in the matchup.
5) Keep your money in your pocket. Something about this race smells really weird.