Place, Show betting to break even?

[andicap]

Dick Schmidt referred to a guy who was successfully hedging his bets by using the favorite (or 2nd favorite) just to break even.

I have noticed a lot of my key horses (who are generally 4-1 and up) finish 2nd and 3rd a lot as longer odds horses tend to do.
Since favorites win 33% of the time, assuming my key horses finish 2nd and 3rd 33% of the time, couldn't I use that bet as a hedge much like Schmidt's guy played the favorites to win?

In fact it might work out better because I wouldn't automatically have a losing bet each race as Schmidt's friend did.

[ridersup]

Andycap

When I like a horse at 5-1 or more I usually bet him to win and put him second in an exacta as a saver bet. Often times the exacta ends up being the better of the two payoffs. As you indicated however you will be throwing away a losing ticket.

Thats one reason I look for tracks that offer Quinellas. If your horse wins and you complete the Q you can have your cake and eat it too.

NY races have Q's in 2d and 4th races. Arlington has Q's on the 1st, 3d, 5th, 7th, and ninth. California tracks usually have them on all races. Nice when you cash both bets.

[so.cal.fan]

If you just bet the straight pools, which I fancy because of the LOWER takeout, the win pool will produce the biggest ROI.
You all know that.
However....andicap brings up an interesting question.
If your place bets or even show bets will break you even or close to it........they will also reduce your losing streaks.........not a small
psychological advantage.
It also keeps your betting bankroll intact.
I am seriously considering betting an equal amount to win and place when Santa Anita opens again next month.
I do show a small profit on my place bets, and have for years, but have never bet them because there was a larger return on the win.
Exactas/quinellas are another approach. I have a problem with this, because my style is to take a stand on one horse.
It probably is a better way to go, but personally, I don't care to get involved with it.
I am sure open to hear any arguments for or AGAINST win/place bets.

[Tom]

When I don't bet two horse in a race, I will bet win and place, one unit to win three units to place. This generally makes a profit even when the horse runs second (I don't do this on favorites).

[superfecta]

I have done something similar to Toms idea,when I like a longer priced horse (4/1 and up)I used to bet enough for place to compensate if it didn't win as if it did win.
Example:horse is 6/1,so I bet 2 to win and 5 to place.If the horse wins I get 14 for win and about the same for place.I don't do that anymore cause its boring and to make decent money you have to bet alot of money,and I dont like to bet alot of money on one horse.I only really used it as an action bet .In races I really didn't like,but since there wasn't much simulcasting,it just kept me amused.

[so.cal.fan]

I have a friend who bets about 1000K a day on rolling triples.
He often bets a hundred dollar place bet on a horse he likes a lot, to cover some of his other action.
Sometimes he does a parlay of two or three horses.
It seems to work for him.

[Dick Schmidt]

Andycap and SoCal,

SoCal,

Your friend is a big bettor indeed. 1000K is a million bucks a day!


Andycap,

I do indeed know a professional player who makes a more than comfortable living by betting low priced horses to break even. The other side of the equasion is that he insists that the other horses in the race are at long enough prices to make a lot of money when they hit. Obviously, he makes nothing when his low priced horse comes in, so he must make a bunch when he can.

I'm not sure you can protect a bet with place and show and still have enough left to bet on the longer priced horses that make the whole thing go. If you bet on an even money favorite, you must bet half of your bet on it to break even. Say you also like horses at 5-1 and 7-1, you have enough of the bet "left over" to play them both. With place bets, and especially show bets, you may well have to play as much as 80% of your total bet to get an even money return. And, of course, you have the problem of calculating the bets.

Most people, if they keep records, will find that the only reason to bet place and show is for comfort reasons. They would make more money betting to win only, but bet the back holes to remain sane. I do much the same thing by betting two horses per race. I would make more money betting just one horse (my SECOND pick) but the runouts make me crazy. Plus I can bet more money in absolute terms this way.

I just don't think there is enough payoff to use place and show to "cover" win bets, especially when you consider just how little you can put into action on the horses you really want to win.

Dick

[so.cal.fan]

Oops, Dick, thanks for correcting my typo.
He actually bets between $700 and $1000 a day, mostly rolling pick threes, sometimes superfectas.
I have seen him bet between $100 and $500 to place on a horse he really likes.

I agree with your comments on place/show betting.
It is strictly for comfort, but that is important in my opinion.

[Richard]

Try www.americanturf.com
Go to the series of articles by Ray Taulbot and read no.22:"The Professional Way To Play".Ray Taulbot,IMHO,presented a sound,no-nonsense philosophyconcerning win/place betting.

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by andicap
Dick Schmidt referred to a guy who was successfully hedging his bets by using the favorite (or 2nd favorite) just to break even.

I have noticed a lot of my key horses (who are generally 4-1 and up) finish 2nd and 3rd a lot as longer odds horses tend to do.
Since favorites win 33% of the time, assuming my key horses finish 2nd and 3rd 33% of the time, couldn't I use that bet as a hedge much like Schmidt's guy played the favorites to win?

In fact it might work out better because I wouldn't automatically have a losing bet each race as Schmidt's friend did.

Andicap:

When you say KEY horse are you talking about a horse that you think can WIN or PLACE? That's what I thought a KEY horse was and I also thought the common play was to put the KEY horse in both slots of the exacta and possible two or three slots in the trifecta. Also, wouldn't you usually play the KEY horse to W/P in a 1/1, 1/3, 1/5 ratio of better, depending on the odds, with the hopes of collecting on both tickets.

Looks to me that if you are able to pick a KEY horse at 4-1 that finishes 2nd or 3rd "a lot", you don't need a hedge bet, what you need is a Brinks truck to haul your winnings away.

JustMissed

[ranchwest]

You might be right, but I've never seen a Brinks truck with a player getting in it.

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by ranchwest
You might be right, but I've never seen a Brinks truck with a player getting in it.

I was playing Mountaineer several weeks ago and a guy hit a $71,000 or so trifecta. If I remember it was the only ticket. It was a so-so race but the guy must have wheeled the the third slot cause I don't guess anybody would have put that horse in on purpose.

If he didn't call Brinks I bet he gave a nice tip to the rent-a-cops that walked him to his car.

My son missed a $18,000 superfecta this summer by one horse in the second slot. I stayed up half the night before the race trying to help him make up his ticket and the horse we were debating about is the one that placed. That sure gave my household a real lesson in the value of picking the right KEY horses.

JustMissed
;)

[Lefty]

I thought I saw a Brinks truck with a player getting in once but it turned out to be a "paddy wagon"

[kenwoodall]

I do not hedge but I specialize in show betting and some spot plays. I have to limit bets to $100 (or $200 at major tracks) so as not to affect the payout. My system eliminates then my handicapping picks 1 horse per race.
:)

[GameTheory]

Ken,

If I may ask, what is your usual ROI over time on your show bets? Do you generally bet to show on low or high odds horses, or do you even consider that?

[kenwoodall]

First, chess- i like to trade queens asap!!
Last 185 bets have been 90.2% correct to show, 40% to win same horses(I don't bet many of them to win), about 25% profit. Any tracks. My home circuit is Northern California, where i have a streak of 45 right now. No. Ca is mostly about last race and speed the way most others bet.
I bet show if 7 or more entries, place if 6 or less. Also i spot bet to win if a value, maybe 10% of races on form. I have studied forms off and on 3 years. I have had my system about a year and have been increasing % steadily.
I bet the Meal Ticket, eliminate based on the "4 C's". Cobsistency in PP finishes/ Connections solid/ Condition meaning regular works and races/ and Competitiveness or good running lines. I find about a bet every 2 races.
After eliminations i closely handicap my pick to determine whether it is a bet or to decide between more than 1 in the same race, and if it is a good win bet.
I also study leading riders on charts and beaten favorites which help my ROI (Bailey looks like a speed jock on cheap ones!). I am not good enough to pick exotics.

[kenwoodall]

You have to watch the tote board so no horse has over 40% of the show pool. You need 75% success to win but have to pick the most solid horse, often NOT the favorite. Look for price of last claim and make sure the trainer placed the horse well!! August 7 Belmont i had 4 picks- $400 bet, $820 return gross for an average payoff of $4.05 per $2.00 bet! Race 1 #8, 3 #6, 6 #8, 10 #9.
Y do not bet named races.

[Foolish Pleasure]

Rebates have made good sport of generating handle to break even.