7 Sep -- LaD (3rd Race)

[Que]

Below is my analysis for LaD on 7 Sep. I've listed my top three horses, ranked by class and speed; and whether I consider the race playable (primarily using trainer stats). In addition, I'm only tracking my best value pick (which is usually based on highest ML odds).

Best Value: 3rd Race, #1 -- ONATAA, 10-1 ML


Race Picks Playable ML (top choice)
1st 1-8-4 Yes 8/5
2nd 4-7-12 Yes 4/1
3rd 1-8-5 Yes 10/1
4th 2-8-4 No
5th 11-12-10 No
6th 2-1-7 No
7th 1-5-3 Yes 3/1
8th No
9th 7-2-1 Yes 3/1
10th 4-3-1 No
11th 8-9-3 No


Comments: 3rd Race, #1 -- Onataa (10-1 ML). I have this race really close between the top three choices (1-8-5). However, I like the #1's trainer (Sam T W), and you also get the #1A as a saver. The odds should be good on the #1 too, since the horse's form is pretty dark. The trainer usually races at EvD, but has won a couple of races at LaD. The trainer also has done a good job in Maiden Claimers, Sprints, and when stretching a horse out an additional furlong. The short layoff, 8-14 days, is a negative; but the class drop should help. Finally, if the blinkers come off, that should be another positve sign.

Que.

[melman]

Que at EVD trainer Thomas W. Sam was one of my fav's on the ROI list. Now a bad win percentage either at 17.1% for the year. Does not start many but gets the winners at nice prices. Don't know if you ever look at Woodbine but trainer V Armata is having an unreal meet. ROI of 4.38 with Avg win payoff of $21.24 with a win % of 20.6. This is with quite a few starters (165) just don't look for him on the Turf as his record there is 0/7. I think smf must be killing them up at Woodbine. lol He has 3 in today at Woodbine but all look to be on the small price side.

[Que]

Thanks Mel. I can't remeber the last time I played Woodbine, but I'll definitely look him up. Not much success with these picks; overall wasn't too bad--i.e. 4 wins of 10 races (return $21.20), but my "playable" races were 2 wins of 5 races (return $7.20... ughhh). And unfortunately, my best value pick finished a dull 5th. I have to admit, I'm really struggling with my definition of a playable race--e.g. I'm finding the more playable the race, the worse prices I get. It's definitely an area I need to research more.

Results to date of my "best" value pick: 3 1-0-0; return $28.60

Que.

[smf]

Melman,

Rest assured that I'm not killing WO, lol.

I did some physicality handicapping during the past 2 weeks, betting the horse that looked to have a measurable edge physically. You'll like this one-- Fort Erie tuesday, the Armata brothers won back to back races ($12, $5), Both were head and shoulders above the rest of the fields (in appearance). I AND I was a claim1 by Vito and won for fun ($5). I saw this horse @ FG in March and I AND I looked tons better last week.