David Ortiz

[Valuist]

Any Twins fans out there? I'm curious to see how big Ortiz was when he came into the league. A look at his year by year numbers makes one wonder if there wasn't some "help" along the way. Maybe the move from the Metrodome to Fenway made a big difference, and maybe the experience of knowing the pitchers helped. But one can't help but be a little skeptical:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5909/career;_ylt=AjoMZFHGH2ZJbEFXcW5pgW.FCLcF

[sq764]

Any Twins fans out there? I'm curious to see how big Ortiz was when he came into the league. A look at his year by year numbers makes one wonder if there wasn't some "help" along the way. Maybe the move from the Metrodome to Fenway made a big difference, and maybe the experience of knowing the pitchers helped. But one can't help but be a little skeptical:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5909/career;_ylt=AjoMZFHGH2ZJbEFXcW5pgW.FCLcF
KNow what's funny - they were comparing Ortiz to Ryan Howard and showed their ',meausrements'... They had ORtiz as 6' 4", 230 lbs

230!!!

He is MINIMUM 280

[Bubbles]

Here are links to pages containing a few pics from when he was in Minnesota. Looks like he's always been large...

minnesota.twins.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/min/news
www.beisbolprofesional.net/BPresultados0724.htm

Not sure how big the pics are, just did a Yahoo search for images.

Frankly, I'd been wondering about the dreaded "s" word with him myself. I mean, he was a decent hitter in Minnesota. He had 20 HR's and 75 RBI's in 125 games in his last year there. For missing 37 games, those are good stats. But geez, look at this...

2002: 20 HR's, 75 RBI's
2003: (first year in Boston) 31 HR's, 101 RBI's
2004: 41 HR's, 139 RBI's (granted, he started playing more games this year, but still)
2005: 47 HR's, 148 RBI's
2006: (to date) 40 HR's, 109 RBI's...in just 109 games!

I think it's a coin toss as to whether he's on the juice or not. Call me cynical, but you don't go from 20/75 to 40+/130+ just by changing cities.

SQ, to his credit, I won't say 280. 230, though? That's a stretch. I'm 6'5", 230-235 (fluctuates by the day), so I know for a fact that 230 is just not an agreeable number. I'd say around 260'd be a decent-enough total.

[sq764]

Here are links to pages containing a few pics from when he was in Minnesota. Looks like he's always been large...

minnesota.twins.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/min/news
www.beisbolprofesional.net/BPresultados0724.htm

Not sure how big the pics are, just did a Yahoo search for images.

Frankly, I'd been wondering about the dreaded "s" word with him myself. I mean, he was a decent hitter in Minnesota. He had 20 HR's and 75 RBI's in 125 games in his last year there. For missing 37 games, those are good stats. But geez, look at this...

2002: 20 HR's, 75 RBI's
2003: (first year in Boston) 31 HR's, 101 RBI's
2004: 41 HR's, 139 RBI's (granted, he started playing more games this year, but still)
2005: 47 HR's, 148 RBI's
2006: (to date) 40 HR's, 109 RBI's...in just 109 games!

I think it's a coin toss as to whether he's on the juice or not. Call me cynical, but you don't go from 20/75 to 40+/130+ just by changing cities.

SQ, to his credit, I won't say 280. 230, though? That's a stretch. I'm 6'5", 230-235 (fluctuates by the day), so I know for a fact that 230 is just not an agreeable number. I'd say around 260'd be a decent-enough total.
First off, he is EASILY 275-280.. no doubt..

Secondly, I could attest his improvement to having a guy named Manny batting behind him..

[Valuist]

Minnesota numbers: 1477 at bats 58 home runs HR/every 25.5 at bats
Boston numbers: 2051 at bats 159 home runs HR/every 12.9 at bats

That's more than being helped by Ramirez.

[OTM Al]

I think several factors have helped him and would not jump straight to the steroids explanation as to me his numbers look very much in form. It looks like he only had 2 almost full seasons of play in Minnesota, 2000 and 2002 in which he had in 2000 415 AB, 10 HR and 63 RBI and then in 2002 412 AB, 20 HR and 75 RBI. Not terrible but not the Papi we now know. However, from the looks of it his ML career started in spurts and jumps as he played many fewer games in the other years. His last year in Minnesota looks to me like he was finally putting things together. I think after that, several factors have helped him. 1) he has matured as a hitter. Generally power hitters begin to have their best seasons around the age of 27 and generally remain at that level til about 30. Papi was 27 in his first year with the Red Sox in 2003. 2) His games played and ABs are much higher than his Minnesota years since 2004, so he has had many more opportunities. The ABs appear to have gone up proportionally more than the games played indicating that he is gatting more ABs per game, which would lead one to figure that it is not just Manny but the whole Boston lineup that is more potent than the Twins ever were, putting more pressure on opposing pitchers and making it much more likely that he will hit. 3) He now has the Monster to aim at, which will give him a few more cheapy home runs a year than he would have gotten with the Twins.

So I would have to say that I see nothing odd here. Its not like Brady Anderson for example, who all of a sudden started hitting everything out of the park and then stopped just as suddenly. Papi has gotten better as he should with increased play and he is part of a much much better hitting team in a park that is condusive to the long ball

[Valuist]

I can buy some of that argument. True, as a player matures, the power numbers can go up. They know the pitchers better, and they just are smarter. Strength also tends to increase up until around 30 or early 30s.

But not really buying into the Green Monster argument. Ortiz is a LH hitter so I'd have to think only a small minority of his HRs go to left field. I'm not saying its for sure he is on them, just that he could be a potential candidate.

[OTM Al]

I tried to find a breakdown of homer by direction but couldn't find one. However, lefties in general love going for the Monster and Ortiz is very very good at driving an outside pitch in that direction. Remember how insanely short the right field pole is there, 297 ft I believe, though it goes back quickly. Therefore, you would normally want to pitch lefties away, but the good ones can go with that away pitch and send what would be a popup elsewhere over the big wall. So with Papi at Fenway you have a bit of a problem. He loves to pull the pitch in, so you have to be way inside to be effective against him, but if you pitch him outside, it is just as easy for him to tommahawk the pitch over the Monster. I wish I could have found an exact breakdown, but when I googled I did see a fair number of game recaps that had him hitting one to left. The guy is just made to hit in that park

Also remember Mo Vaughn was a big time power hitting lefty in that park and he too was very good at taking an outside pitch over the Monster

[slotterhaus]

The Twins got him from Seattle in a deal for the legendary Dave Hollins. He came up quickly but was chronically injured. He was always very big, rather clumsy and would hurt himself rounding first or swinging. Not too glib with the glove either. He did have extended periods where he would hit everything hard to all fields and his power was ascendant. But nagging injuries and a $950K salary led to him being shopped at the end of '02 by the EconoTwins. There were no takers. He was not eagerly sought in free agency after being released in December '02. The Rose Hose take shots on lots of guys and this one turned gold. Juicer? Don't know, but doubt it. He hinted at this kind of career with the Twins but in Minnesota we dump injury prone, big salary guys like Papi when they're looking at $1.25M. It's just that we usually get a promising prospect to compensate for the possibilty of having to watch the guy on Sportscenter every night.

[Valuist]

I think Fenway definitely helps a hitter's batting average; the Green Monster turns a lot of would be fly outs into doubles, long singles as well as home runs. But I looked at Ortiz' splits. He has a fairly similar number of at-bats at home and on the road and real surprising HR numbers. 88 HRs at home and 129 on the road. Could Fenway actually be hindering his HR totals? I'm sure the Metrodome didn't help him but he's played more games at Fenway.

[sq764]

Minnesota numbers: 1477 at bats 58 home runs HR/every 25.5 at bats
Boston numbers: 2051 at bats 159 home runs HR/every 12.9 at bats

That's more than being helped by Ramirez.
also remember he was pretty much a rookie in Minnesota..

2002 in Minesota, he .272 with 20 homers, 75 rbis and 32 double in 412 at bats

In 2005 he got 601 at bats (a full season). If you project 2002 out to 602 at bats, you get:

29 homers, 108 rbis, 46 doubles and 162 hits..

And THEN he goes to a hitter's park, plays a full season AND is on one of the best offenses in baseball, along with Manny behind him..

Not out of the ordinary to see the improvement

[sq764]

Also do not forget this guy started playing for the Twins when he was 20!!

He had his first monster year at 26.. This is when a lot of top players 'get it'

[Valuist]

The Twins got him from Seattle in a deal for the legendary Dave Hollins. He came up quickly but was chronically injured. He was always very big, rather clumsy and would hurt himself rounding first or swinging. Not too glib with the glove either. He did have extended periods where he would hit everything hard to all fields and his power was ascendant. But nagging injuries and a $950K salary led to him being shopped at the end of '02 by the EconoTwins. There were no takers. He was not eagerly sought in free agency after being released in December '02. The Rose Hose take shots on lots of guys and this one turned gold. Juicer? Don't know, but doubt it. He hinted at this kind of career with the Twins but in Minnesota we dump injury prone, big salary guys like Papi when they're looking at $1.25M. It's just that we usually get a promising prospect to compensate for the possibilty of having to watch the guy on Sportscenter every night.

But other than Ortiz, there aren't too many guys the Twins dumped who've done well other places. I guess Jacque Jones is having a good season but we'll see if he can follow it up.

[slotterhaus]

Nope, Trader Terry Ryan is very shrewd when it comes to the length of contracts. Every player the Twins let go into free agency is at some sort of crossroads. Usually monetarily but often developmentally as well. Jones, Koskie, Guzman, Hawkins, Guardado, even poor Joe Mays, they all will very likely have had their best years in Minnesota when they hang up the spikes. Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart are next. I'd be leary of them both. Of course, there is that significant outlier in Boston.

[sq764]

Nope, Trader Terry Ryan is very shrewd when it comes to the length of contracts. Every player the Twins let go into free agency is at some sort of crossroads. Usually monetarily but often developmentally as well. Jones, Koskie, Guzman, Hawkins, Guardado, even poor Joe Mays, they all will very likely have had their best years in Minnesota when they hang up the spikes. Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart are next. I'd be leary of them both. Of course, there is that significant outlier in Boston.
Boy did they catch a bad break with Liriano.. This young and already having potentially serious arm problems? not good..

Their season just went from possible playoffs to potential disaster

[slotterhaus]

The news on the F Bomb (as he is known in some local circles) is tough. Many are actually hoping for Tommy John and not the dreaded torn labrum although he reportedly has no shoulder pain. He has a violent delivery and has had arm problems sporadically throughout his brilliant career. In Minnesota, we think Scott Erickson while for others Kerry Wood probably comes to mind. He was a throw in in the Pierzynski deal who some scout liked before he got hurt in A ball. I feel lucky to have seen him for 2 months. Best slider since Steve Carlton. So we reload with Matt Garza Friday night.

[sq764]

The news on the F Bomb (as he is known in some local circles) is tough. Many are actually hoping for Tommy John and not the dreaded torn labrum although he reportedly has no shoulder pain. He has a violent delivery and has had arm problems sporadically throughout his brilliant career. In Minnesota, we think Scott Erickson while for others Kerry Wood probably comes to mind. He was a throw in in the Pierzynski deal who some scout liked before he got hurt in A ball. I feel lucky to have seen him for 2 months. Best slider since Steve Carlton. So we reload with Matt Garza Friday night.
Yeah, Randy Wolf from the Phillies had the dreaded should problem and just got back from TJ surgery.. He threw his 3rd ML start back post surgery today amd he looked very good.. Stamina still an issue, but looks like he's getting back to form

[Valuist]

As for Ortiz, maybe the MVP isn't an automatic lock yet. Let's compare Ortiz's numbers to Jermaine Dye

Batting average: Dye .329 Ortiz .284
Home Runs: Dye 31 Ortiz 41
RBIs: Dye 88 Ortiz 110
Runs scored: Dye 73 Ortiz 86
Slugging %: Dye .635 Ortiz .618
OPS: Dye 1.033 Ortiz 1.014

[OTM Al]

Its not a lock at all. If the Yanks make the playoffs and the Red Sox do not, expect to see a whole lot of votes go to Derek Jeter. Dye is an awfully good call too. Hadn't really thought of him, but you are right

[Valuist]

Jeter's very legit to win it. Dye is kind of low key and just doesn't get much publicity. If his numbers are close to Ortiz, he may get it because Ortiz is a DH, which should count against him.

[sq764]

As for Ortiz, maybe the MVP isn't an automatic lock yet. Let's compare Ortiz's numbers to Jermaine Dye

Batting average: Dye .329 Ortiz .284
Home Runs: Dye 31 Ortiz 41
RBIs: Dye 88 Ortiz 110
Runs scored: Dye 73 Ortiz 86
Slugging %: Dye .635 Ortiz .618
OPS: Dye 1.033 Ortiz 1.014
10 more homers and 22 more rbis is a LOT..

[sq764]

Its not a lock at all. If the Yanks make the playoffs and the Red Sox do not, expect to see a whole lot of votes go to Derek Jeter. Dye is an awfully good call too. Hadn't really thought of him, but you are right
Dye will be hurt by the fact that Thome is probably an MVP candidate too. He'll lose some votes to his own teammate

[Valuist]

10 more homers and 22 more rbis is a LOT..

And a 45 point difference in batting average is a lot, also. He'd (Ortiz) better have a decided edge if he plans on winning because he isn't a complete player.

I think Joe Mauer has to warrant consideration. A catcher who hits .360? That's pretty impressive.