HANDICAPPING MAGIC QUESTION (BOB HARRIS

[delayjf]

Bob,
I've read handicapping Magic, but Ive got one question. I don't understand how Pizzola can ignore the length gained in the final quarter and why he feels that to include them overstates the performance in the final quarter. Seems to me, that making up the ground that was lost in 4 furlongs in only 2 furlongs would rate as something positive. Don't see how he can ignore it.
Incidently the longshot horse he cited in his book Kickin. I too played that horse as he was the number one rated Sustained pace horse in the race, off a dirt pace line. That angle has clicked many times for me.
Thanks

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by delayjf
Bob,
I've read handicapping Magic, but Ive got one question. I don't understand how Pizzola can ignore the length gained in the final quarter and why he feels that to include them overstates the performance in the final quarter. Seems to me, that making up the ground that was lost in 4 furlongs in only 2 furlongs would rate as something positive. Don't see how he can ignore it.
Incidently the longshot horse he cited in his book Kickin. I too played that horse as he was the number one rated Sustained pace horse in the race, off a dirt pace line. That angle has clicked many times for me.
Thanks

Delayjf,

When constructing the PPF rating, you do give the horse credit for gaining lengths in the 3rd fraction (pg. 191-192) but to leave it there would almost always give pressers and closers a superior number to early and early/presser horses...in effect making the rating useless for comparison of performances between contenders with different running styles.

By adding the 2C beaten lengths back into the 3rd fraction, the differences in energy expenditure (in the first portion of the race) and the positional nature of the horses (we all know that the further back you are early, the tougher it is to win) are addressed.

One thing I do want to caution you on are the huge PPF ratings which some early horses will run from time to time. If you (or The Master Magician) have determined that today's pace is likely to be pressured, the early horses obviously won't be running those same PPF ratings today.

Hope this helps!

Bob

[delayjf]

thanks bob, make more sence now.