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View Full Version : Improve today or decline?


4Jayman
08-06-2006, 12:55 AM
Fellow handicappers I am anxious to hear what your methods / angels are for determining if a horse is going to improve today or not.

dav4463
08-06-2006, 03:27 AM
I like two or three improving speed figures and a move up in class today.

I like three or more declining speed figures with a good class drop today.

I like a jockey or trainer change when a horse has been way off form or declining and the horse stays at same class level or moves up.

I like a horse with some early speed in his past moving to post 1,2,or 3 when previous three or more races were from post 6 or farther out.

pressman
08-06-2006, 09:37 AM
i like to know too that would make me a fortune teller or god

mcikey01
08-06-2006, 09:26 PM
http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TrackTractsArchive.htm

Check out some of the ideas presented by Joe Takach in the "Predatory Handicapping"
and "Upside vs. Downside Risk" articles.

kenwoodallpromos
08-07-2006, 01:28 AM
I like going back to a jockey who rode a successful race with the mount; I like same race as last but smaller field; a little extra OR less space between starts.

Overlay
08-07-2006, 04:35 PM
When I see a horse with recent form that makes it look like a toss-out, I always run its latest efforts past the criteria that Quirin used to differentiate a forgivable bad race from a true "failure" (where the horse didn't live up to its performance in its last "good race", or to what it was going to be asked to do in today's race, and was also without any excuse such as distance, class, running surface, or layoff). To me, this is similar to a positive angle that Ainslie used to discuss, where a horse is entered today under conditions similar to those of a good or winning effort in its past performances (even if its recent form is poor), as long as the horse has been running regularly enough to indicate physical soundness.

Tom
08-07-2006, 05:05 PM
The Failures Approach - I still use that, and the method he described about selecting paceline using it as well - loosely.

classhandicapper
08-07-2006, 05:28 PM
Among higher quality animals (MSW, ALW and STK), horses that possess some or all of the following qualities are more likely to improve.

1. Lightly raced
2. 2YO, 3YO, Early 4YO
2. Well bred
3. Trained by top conditioner
4. Already has a generally improving pattern of races

Among horses with lots of starts or of generally poor quality, horses that possess some or all of the following qualities are likely to continue down.

1. Very old horse with back figures much better than anything earned recently and a generally declining pattern
2. Old horses that fire a very big race without any obvious reason for the sudden dramatic improvement (bounce/mean reversion).
3. Repeated drops in class accompanied by disappointing finishes and figures at low odds

If I thinnk of any more obvious ones I'll add them later.