QUANTUM PICKS PINNACLE AND BETCRIS MATCHUPS 07-30-2006

[formula_2002]

Run to your odds beast, and we will have a good day!
date track race NAME line PGNO play
7/30/2006 SAR R6 SHOOT 100 2
7/30/2006 SAR R6 CHRIS -116 9 play
7/30/2006 SAR R8 SUPER 131 9
7/30/2006 SAR R8 COUTH -147 10 play
7/30/2006 SAR R9 BALLE 126 3
7/30/2006 SAR R9 NOTHI -142 4 play
7/30/2006 DMR R4 MONTR -132 2 play
7/30/2006 DMR R4 ZOEME 116 6
7/30/2006 DMR R7 SALTY -158 2 play
7/30/2006 DMR R7 SONIC 142 6
7/30/2006 DMR R8 BORDO -170 5 play
7/30/2006 DMR R8 CARTH 154 6
7/30/2006 DMR R9 STORM -117 1 play
7/30/2006 DMR R9 TRANS 101 2
7/30/2006 SAR R1 TWILI 110 8
7/30/2006 SAR R1 DEED -130 9 play
7/30/2006 SAR R8 COUTH -125 10 play
7/30/2006 SAR R8 GOODT 105 8
7/30/2006 SAR R9 OONAG -130 5 play
7/30/2006 SAR R9 POOL 110 6
7/30/2006 SAR R1 FORES -120 1 play
7/30/2006 SAR R1 CARRI 100 4
7/30/2006 DMR R1 LUCKY -110 5
7/30/2006 DMR R1 MISS -110 6 play
7/30/2006 DMR R3 GOLD -120 4 play
7/30/2006 DMR R3 TOP T 100 5
7/30/2006 DMR R5 BEWIT 140 1
7/30/2006 DMR R5 BRADF -160 5 play
7/30/2006 DMR R8 CARTH 150 6
7/30/2006 DMR R8 BORDO -170 5 paly

[ryesteve]

Run to your odds beast, and we will have a good day!
I've been saying that for the past month... :)

[formula_2002]

I've been saying that for the past month... :)


They do, they will and all will be well :jump:
(of course we still need the overlays, and that where Quantum shines!! :blush: )

[ryesteve]

Have you followed the thread on the Jcapper board about matchups? The gist of it is that the win pool isn't necessarily efficient on the horses that the matchup linesmakers throw together. I'd be curious to see the numbers, particular over the past month.

[formula_2002]

Have you followed the thread on the Jcapper board about matchups? The gist of it is that the win pool isn't necessarily efficient on the horses that the matchup linesmakers throw together. I'd be curious to see the numbers, particular over the past month.

I only have 250 match ups (500 horses) in my data base, and it is clear in that sample, that the shorter price horse out preforms the longer price horse, even more so when Quantum gives the shorter price horse an edge.

[formula_2002]

With two races left, I think I I just pulled ahead, +$22..

[formula_2002]

With two races left, I think I I just pulled ahead, +$22..
Actually there were two races left, but 3 plays, two of which just won..now it's +$222 with 1 race remaining

[ryesteve]

the shorter price horse out preforms the longer price horse
If they didn't, that'd be beyond incredible. The question is whether or not they do so as often as they're supposed to.

[ryesteve]

I was able to get odds added to much of my matchup db. Rather than go back and enter all by hand (no thanks) I matched up to my JC playlist file, which doesn't yield a perfect match because of misspellings and formatting differences (with periods and apostrophes) in the horse names as posted in the matchups. Still, what I found was interesting.

Looking at matchups prior to a month ago, assuming you had perfect knowledge of the horses' closing odds, making matchup bets in which you had a 25% or higher edge with the early matchup line, your profit was 23%. Makes sense. With the late matchup line, your profit was 25%. Still making sense. However, looking at matchups during the past month, bets with a 25% edge vs. the early line were now only returning +13%... and bets with a 25% edge vs. the late line are now LOSING 5%.

The conclusions I would draw from this is that not only is the linesmaker doing a much better job of putting together matchups in which the horses are not running to their odds as they should, but also that those people who are betting large amounts and shifting the line are not being fooled, and have created a situation where the matchup lines have become more efficient than the win pool.

[formula_2002]

I dont know if that is a significant swing. It may just be "normal". But I am glad to hear that the early line is the more profitable one, only because it confirms my thoughts.

I have generate some "a/e" figures for several conditions and will post them shortly..

Thanks for your information.

Quantum had and excellent day yesterday, posting profits in both its "LINE " and "MATCHUPS".