"He didn't break a sweat and it's 90 Degrees!"

[Stevie Belmont]

The words of Durkin, as Bernardini hit the wire in his public work out in the Jim Dandy. Classic Durkin. Horse looked extra sharp today. Once he took the lead, you knew is what over. Traver's favorite for sure. That race is looking to be a very competitive one on paper.

[46zilzal]

The words of Durkin, as Bernardini hit the wire in his public work out in the Jim Dandy. Classic Durkin. Horse looked extra sharp today. Once he took the lead, you knew is what over. Traver's favorite for sure. That race is looking to be a very competitive one on paper.
The Travers takes a bit more stamina. Let's see who shows up first before giving the crown away.

[Stevie Belmont]

Not giving it away, but stamina is the least of the concerns for this one.

[46zilzal]

Not giving it away, but stamina is the least of the concerns for this one.
there are always a plodder or two who show up for that one. I'll wait until the field comes together. This takes nothing away from today as he was very impressive.

[kenwoodallpromos]

According to the chart- 1 1/8 mile, sealed track, 1:50.50 time.
Until Bernardini is beat or another has a better record, he is my 3 year old HOY by default.

[RXB]

Monster.

[JustRalph]

I just watched it back on the DVR. In the post race interview on the backstretch that horse wasn't even breathing hard.............he looked great coming down the stretch. I also noticed how nice he galloped out.

I hope he stays sound.

[Zaf]

I was travelling today on I-87 and was passing through the area at around 4 P.M. & I decided to pop in and watch the Diana & Jim Dandy. I watched the Jim Dandy from the Grandstand Mid Stretch. Bernardini looked powerful, impressive !!! :ThmbUp:

Z

[kenwoodallpromos]

A 2-race career colt had its own rabbit, 2 others just had a bad off-track race, less than 12 per f on a sealed track, and B's trainer says his horse is in the same category as Cigar! WOW!
I guess it is just a lucky coincidence that the BC does not conflict with the start of the breeding season! The timing couldn't have been better if it was intentional!!

[kenwoodallpromos]

I see the only colt to win a race vs. Bernardini, Exclusive Quality, is supposed to stay in sprints. Too bad- he set a track record in his last race!

[rastajenk]

Well, it's been twelve hours already...anybody got a real Beyer, or a projected one? I missed the race, but I'm reading all over the place that it was the greatest display of racing prowess since Eclipse was in front, and the rest were nowhere. I need to see a number before I get squishy.

[Tom]

I was travelling today on I-87 and was passing through the area at around 4 P.M. & I decided to pop in and watch the Diana & Jim Dandy. I watched the Jim Dandy from the Grandstand Mid Stretch. Bernardini looked powerful, impressive !!! :ThmbUp:

Z

Some people have to plan a whole year to go there, and YOU just happened to be driving by! You lucky so and so!;)

I liked how the jock was watching the Jumbotron in the infield to see how far out in front he was! Confidence. Did you see how easily he drew out while being throttled down?
Nice horse.

[RXB]

Well, it's been twelve hours already...anybody got a real Beyer, or a projected one?

I gave him a 114. And he did it without taking a deep breath.

[PlanB]

Bernardini looked great. The $3.20 looked great too. BUT, the track was
fast sloppy and he has a 432 wet track Tomlinson. Any pace fig thoughts?
I don't make pace figs but I thought they were weak.

[Wiley]

On the ESPN broadcast think it was Moss who said Albertrani said Bernardini was in the league of Cigar, who he worked with while with Mott, and Dubai Millenium, worked with as well? Trainers say all kinds of things about the quality of their horses but a pretty big endorsement nevertheless.

Definitely a visually impressive effort, haven't seen an easier stretch run by a horse in awhile. This race though to me does not mean that much; off track, no other decent on the pace types in the race, short/pretty weak field - Minister's Bid might turn out to be useful but definitely not in B's league now.

Guy is well put together and can sustain a decent pace with something left. Hope others try him in the Travers, but this race might scare fence sitters off. Looked more like an afternoon Bg workout rather than a race.

[andicap]

I hate to be the wet blanket here, but he hasn't really been tested yet, has he? Beat two short, medicore fields and horses often run inflated pace/speed figures when they have things their own way in short fields.

He may well be a monster but I'll wait until he meets real competition before anointing him the 3yr old crown, let alone HOY.

[the_fat_man]

I really have to chuckle at some of the comments:lol::lol:

one guy wants to wait for the figures before venturing an opinion

(can't make up your mind on your own, Ace?)

another thinks that the horse still needs to prove himself


here's the deal, boys

if you know anything at all about the game

and after witnessing this performance

weren't very impressed ---like one of those bigtime efforts---

and don't think that the horse is clearly the best 3 year old (at least) in training

then you really need to reevaluate your assessment skills


this whole figures thing have really blurred your vision

this is A GOOD HORSE

[Stevie Belmont]

Horse has already shown he is the real deal. Great horses have a way of making good horses look bad. Lets face it, none of those he beat yesterday were that great, then again, they were not junk either,they were beat by a super horse that was not really trying at all. Which is key here. If he did not show much effort, that means he can run even better. With that said, there is little doubt he would be able to win against better. Being able to witness a horse run like that is more important then any number will ever indicate. The way he won that race was super. I don't care who he ran against. A force to be dealt with down the road for sure.

The same people who tried to beat St Liam off his Woodward win in the classic. Many said the horse beat zip, but if you go back and look at that race, he never lifted a hoof. Leaving a full tank for the Classic for a horse that was already the best in the Classic division. People were more impressed with Borrego in the Jockey Gold Cup, who was in an all out drive before even hitting the turn. Borrego was way over bet in the Classic, coming off a taxing effort.

With that said, i'm not saying Bernardini is the same horse as St Liam, regardless of you think he is better or not. Point is watching how a horse runs in a race is critical in evaluating a horses performance. His handlers know they have a good one. They are taking thier time with him. Making him even more dangerous.

[PaceAdvantage]

How many times do we have to see a horse win with devastating ease only to lose next time out while running in less advantageous conditions before we learn not to rush to any judgements?

Slop track that he was bred to love.....got the early lead and never looked back....a small field of "B" squad 3yos to beat up on.....

I'm not sure this race enhances his image FOR ME over his Preakness win. It just confirms the fact that he has returned to the races in style off his Preakness coming out party. From here on out, it gets more interesting.

[Zaf]

Some people have to plan a whole year to go there, and YOU just happened to be driving by! You lucky so and so!;)


Tom,

I have tons of friends on Long Island, my parents & inlaws also live there. So I am up & down I-87 maybe 10 times a year. That pit stop was well worth it yesterday. When Bernardini was flying by me mid stretch , what a rush, what a high to see him move so effortlessly :jump:

I played the Bernardini - Mheara Maskey double pretty heavy :( tough beat in the 10th.

Z

[Tom]

Hey, a 3 yo that put together two in a row.
I'm impressed!

B grade 3yos......have't seen to many A's this seaon.

All in all, I think it is a weak 3 yo crop.

But, it comes with an equally horrible older handicap division, so they have a shot at beating their elders.

I think the Claiming Crown might have been the showcase this season:rolleyes:

[ELA]

Horse has already shown he is the real deal. Great horses have a way of making good horses look bad. Lets face it, none of those he beat yesterday were that great, then again, they were not junk either,they were beat by a super horse that was not really trying at all. Which is key here. If he did not show much effort, that means he can run even better. With that said, there is little doubt he would be able to win against better. Being able to witness a horse run like that is more important then any number will ever indicate. The way he won that race was super. I don't care who he ran against. A force to be dealt with down the road for sure.

The same people who tried to beat St Liam off his Woodward win in the classic. Many said the horse beat zip, but if you go back and look at that race, he never lifted a hoof. Leaving a full tank for the Classic for a horse that was already the best in the Classic division. People were more impressed with Borrego in the Jockey Gold Cup, who was in an all out drive before even hitting the turn. Borrego was way over bet in the Classic, coming off a taxing effort.

With that said, i'm not saying Bernardini is the same horse as St Liam, regardless of you think he is better or not. Point is watching how a horse runs in a race is critical in evaluating a horses performance. His handlers know they have a good one. They are taking thier time with him. Making him even more dangerous.

Well said.

Eric

[chrisg]

Hey, a 3 yo that put together two in a row.
I'm impressed!



:lol: :lol: :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Oh, and unlike the fat man, I'm very curious to see what kind of offical numbers he gets off that race....that track seemed to slow down mightily after the rains came early on and they sealed the surface.

Should be a pretty big number.

[Zaf]

He looked pretty darn impressive in his last four, and with only 5 lifetime starts he still has potential upside ! Remember he did not race as a 2YO.


His Cramer Speed Figs look like this:

GP Jan 07 6F -- 23
GP Mar 04 8F -- 16
AQU Apr 29 8F --11
PIM May 20 9.5F --9 1/2
SAR July 29 9F --???


He seems to be getting better & better. In his second lifetime start he hit the gate and still won for fun. AT Aqu in April his jockey lost the whip in the stretch and he still won easily.

Z

[PaceAdvantage]

He looked pretty darn impressive in his last four, and with only 5 lifetime starts he still has potential upside !

You betcha. He might be the proverbial Cigar to Barbaro's Holy Bull (not that I am in any way comparing Barbaro to Holy Bull....just using the breakdown of one star in a race that produces another star analogy).

[the_fat_man]

Oh, and unlike the fat man, I'm very curious to see what kind of offical numbers he gets off that race....that track seemed to slow down mightily after the rains came early on and they sealed the surface.

Should be a pretty big number.

Bossman

THIS is VERY GOOD HORSE

Nothing in the 3 year old ranks can touch him.

He'll bury them. And the scary part is he can do it either on the lead or just off the pace. So, he basically can control any race he's in.

I'd venture an opinion concerning the older horses but as I'm not familiar with them, I'll simply stick to the 3 year olds. Wouldn't think there'd be anything of his caliber in the older ranks, however.

[PaceAdvantage]

Bossman

THIS is VERY GOOD HORSE

Nothing in the 3 year old ranks can touch him.

I don't think anything I've posted in this thread disagrees with this statement.

Yes, he is a very good horse, and yes, nothing in the 3 year old ranks THAT WE'VE SEEN to date can probably beat him.

[TravisVOX]

Horseplayers have two thoughts when it comes to 3-Year-Olds:

(A) A horse beating his rivals consistently is beating a bad crop.

or

(B) When there is no stand-out horse, it's an even worse crop.

When in reality, it could be (A) The horse is the best of a great group, or (B) They're a solid core group that is equally matched.

Will there ever be a 3-year-old crop that horseplayers like? Geez. :rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

I think this 3yo crop is very good (or more accurately, I think it will pan out to be very good). I also think that Bernardini hasn't had to tussle with any of the other top 3yos when they are also at the top of their game. He met a bunch of tired, hurt, (and one famous broken down colt) in the Preakness, and ran against a couple of 2nd-tier types in the Jim Dandy over a sloppy, sticky, slow track.

He put up a very nice fig in the Preakness, and I presume another nice one in the Jim Dandy, so that's all I have to go on....usually, that's enough, but sometimes it isn't.....

[kenwoodallpromos]

Horseplayers have two thoughts when it comes to 3-Year-Olds:

(A) A horse beating his rivals consistently is beating a bad crop.

or

(B) When there is no stand-out horse, it's an even worse crop.

When in reality, it could be (A) The horse is the best of a great group, or (B) They're a solid core group that is equally matched.

Will there ever be a 3-year-old crop that horseplayers like? Geez. :rolleyes:

I like what I read about the 1973 crop, not just Secretariat. They have the most North American Recoeds.

[rastajenk]

Looks like he earned a 114. Pretty nice. From my experience, that says a lot more about how far ahead of the other 3yo's he is than a open-lengths front-running win on a sealed track against a short field "without breaking a sweat." As I said on page one, I didn't see the race, so I'd rather fall back on my trust in the numbers than the gushy commentaries of internet message boards. After all, one has to go back only to last year to read the same kinds of comments about Lost In The Fog, who, when encountering real racing, fell short of his considerable hype. Bernardini, it seems, is much more ready for the big-time second-half races than LITF was, or Flower Alley, or Sun King, or Birdstone, or any of the other 3yo pretenders of recent years. More power to him. It would be a nice change of pace to have a Triple Crown race winner that's still competitive in the fall.

[Stevie Belmont]

There was another three year old who was just as impressive in winning, if not more, that was Henny Hughes. Absolutley effortless at Monmouth, and was going faster without ever being asked. Looks like he will stay in the sprint divison. There is little doubt of his raw ability. I would hope they might want to stretch this one out again down the road.

[gotrocks13]

There was another three year old who was just as impressive in winning, if not more, that was Henny Hughes. Absolutley effortless at Monmouth, and was going faster without ever being asked. Looks like he will stay in the sprint divison. There is little doubt of his raw ability. I would hope they might want to stretch this one out again down the road.
I coudn't agree more about Henny Hughes. I don't think they should try to stretch him out beyond a mile. I think he's found his niche. My single in the BC sprint.

[JPinMaryland]

Looks like he earned a 114. Pretty nice. From my experience, that says a lot more about how far ahead of the other 3yo's he is than a open-lengths front-running win... As I said on page one, I didn't see the race, so I'd rather fall back on my trust in the numbers.. After all, one has to go back only to last year to read the same kinds of comments about Lost In The Fog, who, when encountering real racing, fell short of his considerable hype...


I dont get this. You want to put your trust in speed figs and use LitF as your example. Didnt LitF put up huge Beyer figs?

[rastajenk]

No, as a matter of fact he didn't. He did get a very good 116 at Calder, but that was just one time. Most of his were in the 105-110 range as I recall...nice, but hardly the stuff to back up claims of invincibility and total domination. And some of Fog's backers that are Beyer naysayers countered with comments like, "Well, he won so easily he could obviously crank out 120's if it were needed." Which, I'm sure most people on this board realize, is a silly thing to say.

Similarly, I'm sure there are folks already spinning that Bernardini can ramp it up to the 120 level (or beyond!) as he "matures." Well, may be, I don't know, but he's closer to being there than LITF ever was. Or, more importantly, he's closer to being in the range that wins Grade One races for older horses than LITF ever was.

[Mmm_food]

I think the Claiming Crown might have been the showcase this season:rolleyes:

i resemble this remark
-f

[Tom]

Actually, I wasn't kidding - the CC is on my calendar of must watch events.:ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

I agree with the more conservative opinions expressed here.

It's hard to imagine him being more impressive, but he's had 3 easy trips in a row.

The Withers came up quite weak.

He sat just off a fast pace in the Preakness that took its toll on some of the decent quality speed, Barbaro broke down, Brother Derek had a nighmare trip and the rest of the field was kind of weak.

In the Jim Dandy he got loose in a relatively soft pace on a sloppy track that may have been playing to speed a bit later in the card after some track maintenace.

I think he's an dynamite prospect, but I'd like to see some more.

[cj]

He has to be the BC Classic favorite. Who does he have to beat? Flower Alley, who has one easy score against nothing, and Lava Man, who hasn't proven anything outside of California.

[Citation33]

Give it up on anyone trying to take away from Bernadini. Hey Barabaro had a beautiful trip behind speed in the Derby but no one mentions that. This horse is very good and probably better than any horse this year. He is growing into himself physically and destroying fields. Funny thing is Bernardini beats a Preakness field and it oh well there wasnt much in there, BUT if Barbaro didnt break down and somehow beat Bernadini,thos people wouldnt have said a word about the Preakness field.

[classhandicapper]

He has to be the BC Classic favorite. Who does he have to beat? Flower Alley, who has one easy score against nothing, and Lava Man, who hasn't proven anything outside of California.

Flower Alley's first race back wasn't that fast or against much, but if he picks up where he left off as a 3YO I'd have to think he's going to be a really dynamite horse this year. He was moving forward all last year and ran St Liam to a tough 1/2 length (even if he got a bit the best of the trip). It's a matter of if he's the same horse and continues developing as a 4YO, but if he is/does, no one is going to beat him badly this year if St Liam couldn't last year.

Invasor is still lightly raced (and actually young enough) to continue moving forward.

I think we've seen the best of Lava Man and IMO that's not going to get it done.

Commentator and Bellamy Road could both be tough competitors - although I think 10F is too much for Commentator unless he gets it all his own way (loose, bias etc...) and Bellamy Road has been out so long and had so few races it's hard to know what kind of horse he'll be. But he was fast enough as an early 3YO to be a dynamite 4YO if he's sound and still developing.

I don't see much left among the rest of the 3YOs. Perhaps Strong Contender can continue moving forward. He's getting better and is still lightly raced. We'll know more after the Haskell.

There's one other fairly talented 3YO (can't recall his name) but he looked like a monster when they switched him to the turf. So he may stay there.

[Mmm_food]

Actually, I wasn't kidding - the CC is on my calendar of must watch events.:ThmbUp:

I wasn't kidding either. I am still eligible for $5000 n4l races for 5 year olds and above.:blush:

As a racing fan watching Bernardini run on Saturday I couldn't help but daydream about the race that would have been if Barbaro didn't break down. I have no guess as to who would have won but then again, man that would have been FUN! I think that racing lacks a great deal of fun.....

-f

[the_fat_man]

Perhaps Strong Contender can continue moving forward. He's getting better and is still lightly raced. We'll know more after the Haskell.



Continue to move forward?:lol::lol:

Excuse me.


After his move in the Bluegrass, I (mistakenly) thought that he was going to be a nice horse. Then, he responds with the Belmont efforts. One of which was a loss to Sunriver. (yeah, he's a real nice horse)

Strong Contender couldn't carry Bernardini's jock. Maybe he can beat that monster Deputy Glitters in the Haskel:bang::bang:

As much as I'm a supporter of Barbaro, it struck me during the Jim Dandy
that he'd have gotten buried as well.

[classhandicapper]

Continue to move forward?:lol:

Excuse me.


After his move in the Bluegrass, I (mistakenly) thought that he was going to be a nice horse. Then, he responds with the Belmont efforts. One of which was a loss to Sunriver. (yeah, he's a real nice horse)

Strong Contender couldn't carry Bernardini's jock. Maybe he can beat that monster Deputy Glitters in the Haskel:bang:

I don't think he's anyhere near as good as Bernardini at this point either, but his last race was a much improved effort. He's likely to be the favorite in the Haskell against Bluegrass Cat where we'll learn more about both. He IS lightly raced enough to "continue moving forward". The fact that he IS improving is sort of a given. I think you may have missed his last race.

I mostly just think Bernardini probably isn't as good as Bernardini yet. :lol:

I try not to get prematurely excited about loose lead winners that set moderate paces on freshly rolled tracks that turned speed favoring right after the mid card maintenance. I'm not blind, but IMO 2-3 easy trip big wins doesn't make a horse a champion. It makes him a very good horse and a dynamite prospect to move forward enough to be a champion. IMO, beating other top notch horses under tough conditions and earning big figures while doing it makes a champion.

[the_fat_man]

I don't think he's anyhere near as good as Bernardini at this point either, but his last race was a much improved effort. He's likely to be the favorite in the Haskell against Bluegrass Cat where we'll learn more about both. He IS lightly raced enough to "continue moving forward". The fact that he IS improving is sort of a given. I think you may have missed his last race.

I mostly just think Bernardini probably isn't as good as Bernardini yet. :lol:

I try not to get prematurely excited about loose lead winners that set moderate paces on freshly rolled tracks that turned speed favoring right after the mid card maintenance. I'm not blind, but IMO 2-3 easy trip big wins doesn't make a horse a champion. It makes him a very good horse and a dynamite prospect to move forward enough to be a champion. IMO, beating other top notch horses under tough conditions and earning big figures while doing it makes a champion.

Well, maybe he's not a 'champion' yet in the traditional sense (think of any of the great thoroughbred champions of the past)
yet
he's better than the other 3 year olds out there and thus he will be 3 year old 'champion'.

Look, I don't follow the game regularly, like quite a few here do,
and
I don't look at figures

but

I've watched quite a few races in the past 30+ years and this horse
appears to be the real deal. For example, fire up a replay of SM's Bluegrass effort and then replay the Jim Dandy. I think the difference would be evident.

You can argue that he's gotten good trips but his running style is such that he will always get 'good trips'. He's fast enough to control the pace OR he can sit just off the speed.

How is Strong Contender 'improving' (other than figurewise --my assumption)?

He runs back from the Bluegrass and duels with a horse that drops him and just misses against the suckingup, all out, life and death to get up, Sunriver.

Then, in what is essentially an allowance race, he gets a trip and comes through on the rail ---Clydesdaling his way home.

Needless to say, the monster middle move he made in the Bluegrass is his best effort to date.


He could easily win the Haskell--not like there's anything left that would make that race interesting. In fact, I hope he does and then gets support in the Travers.

[RXB]

I agree with fatman.

This horse has been so impressive in all four of his route races. He dismantled the opposition every time. Won his maiden race and the Dandy in canters. Modest effort to win the Withers and Preakness (in his fourth lifetime start). Never looked like he was asked for his best.

He is an absolutely impeccable physical specimen with a magnificent stride. His demeanour is so professional. He can vary his running style according to the way the race shakes down. There just doesn't seem to be anything missing.

He has to do more before he can be called a great horse, but honestly, I can't think of a single reason why he won't. (Except for injury, the bane of the 21st century thoroughbred.)

[JohnNUtah]

How many of the top older Handicap horses has this one faced, much less beaten?

[Wiley]

How many of the top older Handicap horses has this one faced, much less beaten?
None. What's the point? It's only the start of August he runs against 3 year olds in the Travers then maybe a couple against older horses in the fall series at Belmont then the BC classic.
The handicap division is once again weak and Bernardini is a glowing bright spot of potential and if he stays healthy should handle older horses as well.
I would like to see Discreet Cat come back and take on B but from what I've read the owners will be avoiding a confrontation at least maybe until the Classic if they both make it there.

I guess if Dutrow had him he might wheel him back in the Whitney this Saturday and he could probably take that race too given how little the Jim Dandy appeared to take out of him.

[Hank]

Just hope Bernadina stays sound,If so we might be in for quite a treat,I think the world of Barbaro but I never loved his action ,not for a dirt horse at least.But man this Bernadini he has that silky smooth effortless way of going,looks like his feet hardly touch the track,also the sheik may not be so quick to grab the stud money, so we may get to see a lot more of him,BUT I dont get to excited about one until I see him Hooked.:ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

Give it up on anyone trying to take away from Bernadini. Hey Barabaro had a beautiful trip behind speed in the Derby but no one mentions that. This horse is very good and probably better than any horse this year. He is growing into himself physically and destroying fields. Funny thing is Bernardini beats a Preakness field and it oh well there wasnt much in there, BUT if Barbaro didnt break down and somehow beat Bernadini,thos people wouldnt have said a word about the Preakness field.

Funny, I seem to remember in the Derby that Barbaro sat fairly close to the quick early pace and was the only one near that pace to continue on late. No?

Of course there would have been Barbaro bashers if he had won the Preakness. There are always bashers.

[PaceAdvantage]

As much as I'm a supporter of Barbaro, it struck me during the Jim Dandy that he'd have gotten buried as well.

Really? Off the Jim Dandy? I just don't see how this race carries that huge an impact other then confirming what we already saw in the Preakness.

[ryesteve]

Interesting prop just went up at Pinnacle... Barbaro vs. Bernardini for the eclipse award. Bernardini looks like a good play at +189, but I'm not about to bet money on something where the outcome is based on subjectivity.

[classhandicapper]

fat_man

You seem to be misunderstanding what I am saying.

I also think he's far and away the best 3YO. I also thinks he's a great prospect to continue moving forward and perhaps even sweep the rest of the season. He's lightly raced enough to get much better.

I am simply pointing out that he's had 3 very easy trips in a row. That tends to make for figures and visual impressions that exceed the reality. He does have a good running style for getting easy trips, but he won't get loose leads in a moderate pace on a speed favoring rolled sloppy track or sit just off a duel in every race.

Eventually he'll run into another very good horse or two that got just as easy a trip as he did and he's going to get into a ding dong battle for position on the turn and through at least part of the stretch. He may beat those horses too, but IMO you will see a visual difference because the competition will not be dead wood and the opponents would have had a similar trip.

This is a much different opinion than saying the horse isn't any good because he hasn't beat anybody.

[classhandicapper]

Funny, I seem to remember in the Derby that Barbaro sat fairly close to the quick early pace and was the only one near that pace to continue on late. No?

Of course there would have been Barbaro bashers if he had won the Preakness. There are always bashers.

I would also argue that Barbaro was actually too close to that fast pace early (though he got a good breather before the stretch run). I also think had he not broken down and fired a similar effort in the Prakness we would have a clearer idea of how good both horses are. They both probably would have gotten a terrific trip just off the fast competitive pace of the Preakness and it would have made for quite an exciting stretch run and closer finish.

Of course I would still think the margin between them and Sweetnorthersaint was inflated by the fact that SNS was used hard early beating off various challenges.

[PaceAdvantage]

Interesting prop just went up at Pinnacle... Barbaro vs. Bernardini for the eclipse award. Bernardini looks like a good play at +189, but I'm not about to bet money on something where the outcome is based on subjectivity.

Because of the obvious sentiment when it comes to Barbaro, I agree with Randy Moss of ESPN. He has to win the Travers and do very well in the BC Classic to get the nod at this point.

But +189 does seem like a good play at this point....

[delayjf]

I would also argue that Barbaro was actually too close to that fast pace early (though he got a good breather before the stretch run).


When I examined the fractions of the Derby, especially the 4th 1/4 of 26.29, I was under the same impression. But a more astute handicapper than me pointed out that the fourth quarter had only been run in the sub 25 ONCE this century. By his calculations Babaro had run a 25.66, a tad slow for the final time, but not unusually slow.

[classhandicapper]

When I examined the fractions of the Derby, especially the 4th 1/4 of 26.29, I was under the same impression. But a more astute handicapper than me pointed out that the fourth quarter had only been run in the sub 25 ONCE this century. By his calculations Babaro had run a 25.66, a tad slow for the final time, but not unusually slow.

Considering how fast he came home, I would still consider him as getting a breather when the other speeds collapsed. ;)

Also, you have to consider that in many Derbys, that fraction may not have been particularly fast, but lots of horses were gaining ground into it and running much faster quarters.

[delayjf]

Also, you have to consider that in many Derbys, that fraction may not have been particularly fast, but lots of horses were gaining ground into it and running much faster quarters.

for what it's worth.
He also pointed out that in the Derby only two other horses were gaining ground into that 4th fraction - Bluegrass Cat and Sweetnorthernsaint. Given the swift pace you would have there would have been more.

[the_fat_man]

fat_man

You seem to be misunderstanding what I am saying.

I also think he's far and away the best 3YO. I also thinks he's a great prospect to continue moving forward and perhaps even sweep the rest of the season. He's lightly raced enough to get much better.

I am simply pointing out that he's had 3 very easy trips in a row. That tends to make for figures and visual impressions that exceed the reality. He does have a good running style for getting easy trips, but he won't get loose leads in a moderate pace on a speed favoring rolled sloppy track or sit just off a duel in every race.

Eventually he'll run into another very good horse or two that got just as easy a trip as he did and he's going to get into a ding dong battle for position on the turn and through at least part of the stretch. He may beat those horses too, but IMO you will see a visual difference because the competition will not be dead wood and the opponents would have had a similar trip.

This is a much different opinion than saying the horse isn't any good because he hasn't beat anybody.

Is there something here for me to respond to?

[the_fat_man]

I would also argue that Barbaro was actually too close to that fast pace early (though he got a good breather before the stretch run).

I also think had he not broken down and fired a similar effort in the Prakness we would have a clearer idea of how good both horses are. They both probably would have gotten a terrific trip just off the fast competitive pace of the Preakness and it would have made for quite an exciting stretch run and closer finish.

Of course I would still think the margin between them and Sweetnorthersaint was inflated by the fact that SNS was used hard early beating off various challenges.

Well, DRUGS and others have argued that Barbaro got a perfect trip in the Derby. Hard to make the case that he didn't get a favorable one ---especially with BGC getting a reasonably similar trip. Whatever the case, he ran BIG when it counted.


I agree with the second part (it's banal).

As for SNS and his trips ----I needed him ONCE this year --in the Gotham (was it?) and he punked out. Bad trips and all, he's just not a gutsy horse. Easy to get sucked in by his trips, however.

[JPinMaryland]

"punked out" maybe too strong a word to describe SNS in the Gotham. There was evidence was running against a strong rail bias as some had pointed out. After the derby I really started to question his determination in the stretch, again not conclusive, he made a nice run up on the back stretch but then seemed to hang. Not sure he had a good excuse or not but curious....


It seemed at that pt. that he was one of those horses who are "looking to lose" or dont know what to do when they are out in front. The Preakness seeemed to confim this, he got passed by Bern. like he was standing still then he started to veer all over the track in the home stretch.

[JPinMaryland]

for what it's worth.
He also pointed out that in the Derby only two other horses were gaining ground into that 4th fraction - Bluegrass Cat and Sweetnorthernsaint. Given the swift pace you would have there would have been more.


You have to be careful with the official chart on this, it's way off. Myself and others had this discussion on the espn site. We used the overhead video in order to fix the official chart...

From what I recall, Lawyer was making up ground as well. And the official chart is off on how far ahead Sin MIn was at this pt...It's really a mess. ANother one is Jazil, who I think was making up ground but the official chart is way messed up on him. but I think he was making up ground on the turn, these horses in the back sometimes dont get called correctly in the charts because of how the call is made...

I dont have time to find the discussion but it's on ESPN or maybe about.com site. Might be worth checking out, we put considerable time into it and Im 99% sure we got it right..

[classhandicapper]

Well, DRUGS and others have argued that Barbaro got a perfect trip in the Derby. Hard to make the case that he didn't get a favorable one ---especially with BGC getting a reasonably similar trip. Whatever the case, he ran BIG when it counted.

I don't think he got a great trip, but he didn't get a very bad one either.

IMO there is VALUE in understanding the trip where a horse (or several) sit just off a fast or very fast pace.

The typical conclusion is that the horse got a perfect trip.

However, IMO you have to actually examine all the fractions (and pace figures if you have them for each call), the result of the race relative to expectations, and the speed figures earned by all those horses in and out of the race.

Each of those ways of viewing the race gives you a different type of evidence about how fast the pace was and what impact it had on the horses that were on it, close to it, or that moved into it. IMO, numbers and/or visual impressions alone don't capture everything that's involved in measuring the impact of pace.

The more comprehensive you get in your examination, the more often you will be right about this kind of thing.

If the pace is fast enough, horses sitting just off it or moving into it are also being used too hard even if less hard than the leaders.

I usually reserve this kind of analysis for major stakes, but occasionally I dig deeper if I'm about to make a big bet on a similar situation in a cheaper race.

[classhandicapper]

for what it's worth.
He also pointed out that in the Derby only two other horses were gaining ground into that 4th fraction - Bluegrass Cat and Sweetnorthernsaint. Given the swift pace you would have there would have been more.

I agree.

I'm not sure if that argues that the quality of the rest of the field wasn't very high, some of the horses had distance limitations, a lot of horses didn't fire, or a few cheaper horses were used up a bit keeping up with "internal fractions".

My own view is that fraction looks quite slow relative to the rest of the race and when Babaro moved into it, the frontrunners offered zero resistance and he was going very easily.

[the_fat_man]

"punked out" maybe too strong a word to describe SNS in the Gotham. There was evidence was running against a strong rail bias as some had pointed out. After the derby I really started to question his determination in the stretch, again not conclusive, he made a nice run up on the back stretch but then seemed to hang. Not sure he had a good excuse or not but curious....


It seemed at that pt. that he was one of those horses who are "looking to lose" or dont know what to do when they are out in front. The Preakness seeemed to confim this, he got passed by Bern. like he was standing still then he started to veer all over the track in the home stretch.

So, in other words, he PUNKED out in the Preakness, in your opinion? :bang:

For me, the Preakness was his best effort. Kent panicked when BD moved entering the turn and gunned him. He wasn't beating Bernardini but
he also didn't need to get that hard a trip.

[the_fat_man]

I don't think he got a great trip, but he didn't get a very bad one either.

IMO there is VALUE in understanding the trip where a horse (or several) sit just off a fast or very fast pace.

The typical conclusion is that the horse got a perfect trip.

However, IMO you have to actually examine all the fractions (and pace figures if you have them for each call), the result of the race relative to expectations, and the speed figures earned by all those horses in and out of the race.

Each of those ways of viewing the race gives you a different type of evidence about how fast the pace was and what impact it had on the horses that were on it, close to it, or that moved into it. IMO, numbers and/or visual impressions alone don't capture everything that's involved in measuring the impact of pace.

The more comprehensive you get in your examination, the more often you will be right about this kind of thing.

If the pace is fast enough, horses sitting just off it or moving into it are also being used too hard even if less hard than the leaders.

I usually reserve this kind of analysis for major stakes, but occasionally I dig deeper if I'm about to make a big bet on a similar situation in a cheaper race.

I think when a number of horses do well in a race running a particular style, all other things being equal, this usually means that 'style' had an edge in the race. Looking at the Derby in broad terms, 2 out of 3 stalkers ran 1,2, and the 2 closers ran 3,4 (with BD also essentially serving the role of a closer in the race). Hard to say that the stalkers didn't get a trip under those circumstances. Also hard to say that the speed didn't have the worst of it.

[the_fat_man]

You have to be careful with the official chart on this, it's way off. Myself and others had this discussion on the espn site. We used the overhead video in order to fix the official chart...

From what I recall, Lawyer was making up ground as well. And the official chart is off on how far ahead Sin MIn was at this pt...It's really a mess. ANother one is Jazil, who I think was making up ground but the official chart is way messed up on him. but I think he was making up ground on the turn, these horses in the back sometimes dont get called correctly in the charts because of how the call is made...

I dont have time to find the discussion but it's on ESPN or maybe about.com site. Might be worth checking out, we put considerable time into it and Im 99% sure we got it right..

Per the (line) graph I have for the race,

Barbaro and
Jazil

gained from the 3rd to the 4th fraction

Bluegrass Cat
Brother Derek
Steppenwolfer

essentially ran evenly

of course, this is per the BRIS chart which, according to JP, is incorrect

[classhandicapper]

I think when a number of horses do well in a race running a particular style, all other things being equal, this usually means that 'style' had an edge in the race. Looking at the Derby in broad terms, 2 out of 3 stalkers ran 1,2, and the 2 closers ran 3,4 (with BD also essentially serving the role of a closer in the race). Hard to say that the stalkers didn't get a trip under those circumstances. Also hard to say that the speed didn't have the worst of it.

I agree with you about that "style" technique.

I think if you also look at the fractions (or better yet pace figures if you have them) you could come to the conclusion that pace was fast enough that Barbaro had no special advantage being where he was.

That's why I like to look at these things from multiple directions. There are strengths and weaknesses with each approach, but they often compliment and clarify each other quite well.

Of course, as always, that doesn't mean I am right, but I would argue that looking at thing from more than one perspective enhances your ability to get it right.

[JPinMaryland]

fat man...Here is snippets from the dicussion we had on the about.com site. Will try to post the link too.;

[here is the first guy, I think he pretty much correct, not sure if Jazil did or did not pass BroD in the stretch]

Yes sir the distance is relative to the leader at each call . the problem with this historical Derby chart Jazil in front of Brother Derek 1 full lenght at the 1/8 pole (wrong ) Steve Haskins alluded to this in his derby report Brother Derek got passed by Jazil and came back to DH dead Heat .

Not so . I looked at this from overhead camera Blip video shot Jazil on rail is not 17th at the 1/4 pole but 11th Brother Derek is 10th . Jazil never passed BD running wide until he catches him on the line .

Anyone got the taped can look at it the proof is right there and clear .
I did not dig any more to find anything else wrong with the charts since this one is so apparent .

Jazil is not 8 3/4 off at the 1/4 he much closer on the rail behind tiring SNS . Barbaro does not looked to be 3 in front more like 2 1/2 at the 1/4 .....where is the quarter pole just entering the stretch or when the actually straightened for the drive ?

I sure when one horse position is wrong others too are wrong and they need to correct this for accuracy ....they think they are so perfect makes me wonder how many times this has happened in other charts ?

[this is Ragamuffin's post, I think it is correct in every respect because we all spent some time on this...]

The mistake in the charts is quite evident when it is matched with the blimp camera. What it looks like to me is they screwed up on three horses; Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat and Jazil.

Barbaro only had a 2 length lead at the mile pole, yet he is credited with a 3 length lead. He did have a 3 length lead with 3/16ths to go in the race.
Jazil was in 11th place not 17th at the mile pole. He was only 4 1/2 lengths from the lead, not the 8 lengths as the chart indicates. He was in 17th place with 5/16ths remaining in the race. Whoever did the charts gave his position at that pole as his position with a quarter of a mile to go.
Jazil ran his final quarter in :25.24 seconds. He lost ground to Barbaro in the stretch, he didn't run evenly with him.

Bluegrass Cat was in third, a head in front of Sweetnorthernsaint, not the one length he is given credit for. He was a length in front of SNS with 3/16ths left in the race. Every horse between 11th and 16th should be one place lower than they are given credit for at the mile pole
The mistake in the charts is quite evident when it is matched with the blimp camera. What it looks like to me is they screwed up on three horses; Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat and Jazil.

Barbaro only had a 2 length lead at the mile pole, yet he is credited with a 3 length lead. He did have a 3 length lead with 3/16ths to go in the race.
Jazil was in 11th place not 17th at the mile pole. He was only 4 1/2 lengths from the lead, not the 8 lengths as the chart indicates. He was in 17th place with 5/16ths remaining in the race. Whoever did the charts gave his position at that pole as his position with a quarter of a mile to go.
Jazil ran his final quarter in :25.24 seconds. He lost ground to Barbaro in the stretch, he didn't run evenly with him.

Bluegrass Cat was in third, a head in front of Sweetnorthernsaint, not the one length he is given credit for. He was a length in front of SNS with 3/16ths left in the race. Every horse between 11th and 16th should be one place lower than they are given credit for at the mile pole

[JPinMaryland]

another snipped this one is mine:

A very nice summary of all that has gone wrong with the chart Depalma! That must have taken some time. I know it took me about 3 hours of starting and stopping and didnt even complete it.
You left out one thing,I believe. they have Keyed Entry or whomever in first by 1 1/2 lengths at the 3/4 pole. He was ahead by that a little before that, but when they get to the pole he is only ahead by a head or so...

One more thing for those of you...there is a thread on this topic in the Thorograph forum (thorograph.com) entitled "Final quarters" or some such. They print out a list of fractions of all the horses based on two charts one by Equibase and one by Brisnet. Equibase has Jazils final quarter in 24.44 and Brisnet has him in 23.67! Hopeless..


here is the link to the thread, hope it works...

http://forums.about.com/n/pfx/forum.aspxnav=messages&tsn=1&tid=13017&webtag=ab-horseracing

[JPinMaryland]

dammit that doesnt link it, try this..


http://forums.about.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&tsn=1&tid=13017&webtag=ab-horseracing



that should work, there is another thread about Jazl's final quarter but I think we took care of that above. About.com is hard to navigate sometimes becaues it doesnt explain like where youare in the site or how to get to where you want..

[delayjf]

They print out a list of fractions of all the horses based on two charts one by Equibase and one by Brisnet. Equibase has Jazils final quarter in 24.44 and Brisnet has him in 23.67! Hopeless..

How is it that Bris is so much different from Equibase, doesn't bris get their PP data from Equibase?

[JPinMaryland]

I have no idea Delay, perhaps it is on that site I linked to, you can go back to the main menu of horse racing, then the menu for triple crown. There are not too many threads but you have to go to page 2, I think to find about jazil's final quarter...


Fatman: yeah I agree he punked out in the preakness, but I had not thought so in the gotham that is all Im saying. I had thought after the Derby though that I would leave him off of the top of exotics and leave in the bottom. His curious finish in the derby in combination with the Gotham made me think there might be a problem.

I think you had him pegged earlier in the season that he would do that, if I recall.

[classhandicapper]

JPin,

Thanks for all of that.

This is one of the arguments against numeric pace figures. Not only are you coping with trying to make accurate variants for different distances that could be impacted to varying degrees by wind, starting gate postion, how uniform the track speed was etc.... the beaten lengths for all the pace calls are done manually and are very prone to error.

In my mind, the numerics still have a lot of value, but that's why I tend to try to view things from a comparative/visual point of view also. The two ways of looking at things tend to compliment and clarify each other very well.

I think if you choose just one, the weaknesses will get exposed in your betting results.

[JPinMaryland]

are the other races this messed up at making chart calls. Someone on the other board was saying to take a look at Caveat's Belmont, the chart is way off. With 20 horses in the derby field I can sort of understand the mistakes but then again cant they see the same video we saw? We used the overhead blimp shot and eventually the posters had agreed on what we saw...

[classhandicapper]

are the other races this messed up at making chart calls.

I honestly couldn't tell you because it's not something I spend time on, but I do occasionally see charts that aren't consistent with what I thought I saw.
I think you can safely assume that many charts are wrong, but probably not by a significant enough margin to impact your impression of the race by a lot.
I does got to show you though, if you are making pace figures, speed figures and calculating internal fractions etc.... that small advantages in the figures can't be taken too seriously.

I've made this point in the past.

Purely numeric handicappers are combining pace figures that may not be accurate with speed figures that may not be accurate using formulas that may not be accurate and then forming strong opinions about performances based on the result. That is not to say you should throw a powerful set of tools into the garbage can. It's to make the point that watching races, knowing the "quality" of the horses etc... has some advantages also.

IMHO (and I've probably made this point way too often for some people's taste), there is nothing wrong with combining numbers and a sophisticated "class" style handicapping in a complimentary way. It's time consuimg. So perhaps you can't play dozens of races that way, but when appropriate it helps a lot. At least I think it does.