4 Sep -- Arlington Park (5th Race)

[Que]

Pic6Vic,

Both my speed figures and trainer stats are homegrown.
Anyway, here goes another try.

Best Value: Classic Garbo at 8-1 ML


CLASSIC GARBO

8/23/2002-AP1 1m (961-977-977-966) (943) 967 1-1 1/4 Clm (5,000|NW16M|11,000)
8/14/2002-AP4 1m (na-na-na-dnf) () 968 9-DNF Clm (8,000|NW2L|13,000)
7/26/2002-AP1 1 1/8m (939-962-965-945) (909) 948 4-15 1/2 Clm (8,000|NW2L|13,000)

LIGHT WAVE
8/24/2002-AP6 1 1/2m (894-949-958-951) (918) 952 5-21 Alw (NW1X|35,000)
7/26/2002-AP1 1 1/8m (931-954-961-971) (992) 968 1-3 1/2 Clm (8,000|NW2L|13,000)
7/7/2002-AP5 1m (922-963-964-961) (959) 959 2-6 Clm (8,000|NW2L|12,000)

I BE SHY
8/4/2002-AP5 1 1/8m (871-907-938-956) (999) 969 6-6 1/4 Alw (NW1X|35,000)
6/27/2002-AP8 1 1/16m (913-948-963-962) (975) 970 6-11 Alw (30,000)
6/8/2002-AP10 1 1/8m (917-919-949-965) (1006) 968 5-1 3/4 Alw (NW1X|30,000)

CYBERTECH
8/15/2002-AP2 1m (978-987-982-968) (934) 968 3-3 1/2 Clm (5,000|12,000)
7/11/2002-AP3 6.5f (948-943-na-957) (963) 958 5-15 Clm (10,000|17,000)
6/23/2002-AP1 6.5f (953-965-na-966) (954) 963 2-3 3/4 Clm (10,000|16,000)

DETERMINED IRISH
8/15/2002-AP2 1m (911-954-965-968) (981) 968 2-3 1/2 Clm (5,000|12,000)
8/8/2002-AP3 6f (917-958-na-977) (999) 975 1-1 1/4 Clm (5,000|NW16M|11,000)
7/24/2002-AP5 6f (886-924-na-964) (1025)

MAGIC DANCER
8/16/2002-AP9 6.5f (979-979-na-961) (923) 964 6-10 Clm (10,000|17,000)
7/21/2002-AP3 1m (1009-1003-987-951) (846) 958 6-18 1/2 Clm (14,000|19,000)
7/3/2002-AP1 1m (978-997-997-980) (939) 973 2-2 Clm (14,000|18,000)

SHADOW GREEN
8/21/2002-AP3 6f (931-958-na-951) (926) 953 5-11 1/4 Clm (10,000|17,000)
8/4/2002-AP6 6f (908-942-na-952) (957) 950 6-8 1/2 Clm (14,000|19,000)
7/4/2002-AP3 1m (919-933-956-968) (1006) 953 2-5 Clm (10,000|16,000)

FOREVER REGAL
8/24/2002-AP10 6f (953-953-na-945) (915) 946 8-18 Clm (7,500|14,000)
8/9/2002-AP3 6f (965-966-na-965) (950) 961 5-4 3/4 Clm (5,000|12,000)
7/19/2002-AP1 6f (935-950-na-956) (953) 960 8-10 Clm (7,500|14,000)

Comment: I like the Joseph E Broussard horse. I have the horse ranked 3rd in speed and 5th in class. But, I like the trainer. Broussard hasn't won much lately, but when he has its been at good prices. The trainer also excels at claiming, especially after a short 8-14 day layoff.

good luck... Que.

[melman]

Great to hear from you again Que, I miss talking with you in the War Room. Hope your stay in Thailand is not to long. lol I understand they do have racing over there, have you worked out any stats yet?? lol Best wishes for a happy stay and a great trip home.

[rrbauer]

I don't have an opinion about the trainer and I don't play races that feature horses at this level....in fact, after looking at this race I would have to bet on a trainer, because I'm sure as hell not betting on any of the horses! Anyway, I'm suspect of horses that show their best recent races on wet tracks and on turf. This mare may have a foot problem and if that's the case she won't like it here since they graded the track last night and when they do that the inside has been harder/faster the day following. (Her Tomlinson 420 for wet tracks may speak for the off track success, too)

So I'll root for Que's money since I'm not risking mine!

[GR1@HTR]

My 2 cents...

#1 No chance in my book, but Q likes him so that counts for something...

#2 Drops in class, 3-1 MLO but ranks 4th to me. Bet at 7-1 or more.

#3 A turfer going back to dirt. Ranks 5th according to my ratings

#4 4-1 MLO but ranks 5th in mia el libro...Likes to run early but will be outsted by the #6 in a speed duel...

#5 Runs well every other race and should run ok today. Bet at 7-1 or more

#6 Speed of the speed, class dropper and should take it wire to wire. Bet at 3-1 or more...Won't get the odds though....

#7 Another class dropper that will be closing hard at the end. Could win with a good trip and if the #6 pukes. Bet at 7-2 or more.

#8 Longshot value play. This even running sprinter could appreciate the extra distance and add value to the extotics. Bet at 5-1 or more.

Bonus coverage for risky bettors:
$2 ex 6/7 8
$1 ex 6 7/6 7 8
$1 ex box 6 7 8
$1 tri 6/7 8/7 8 2 4
$1 tri 6 7/6 7 8/3 6 7
$1 super 6/7 8/7 8 2 5/7 8 2 4
$1 super 6 7/6 7 8/6 7 8 2 4/6 7 8 2 4

**FEPO**

For entertainment purposes only.

[GR1@HTR]

lol...dude that was a monster pick Q...great pickin!

[rrbauer]

Bad feet? Nah! The rail is gold today and 13-1 is in Que's pocket. Way to go Trainer-capper!

[melman]

Ca Ching for Mr Que. Hey you will be coming back to the War Room soon uh??? lol But very nice $28 and change now about that racing in Thailand!!!!! lol

[pic6vic]

Great pick

The tri paid $398.00 and the super paid $30,000.00.
Is that wrong how can the super pay 75 times more than the tri, even with the longest shot in the race running 4th. hope that it was you on the super.

[freeneasy]

Thats it. I'am moving to Thailand. Good call Que

[hdcper]

Que,

Like everyone else glad to hear from you again. I miss your analysis of big races and hope you will be following and sharing your comments of he Breeders Cup.

Any idea when you will be back home?

Anyway take care of yourself,

Hdcper

[smf]

Great hit, Que!

Good to see you back.

[Que]

Thanks everyone,

It's nice to be back on the board, albeit a bit farther away. I'll be here for at least three years, which should really crimp my horse playing--especially with the approx. 12 hour time difference. (More time for research though.) We do have two racetracks here, the Royal Bangkok Turf Club and the Royal Bangkok Sports Club. They only race on Sundays though, alternating tracks every week. I can actually see the far turn of the Royal Bangkok Sports Club (RBSC) from my apartment window. They only have turf racing here though--something that has never been my speciality.

I have been to the RBTC already. They even have an english version of the racing program, which I find odd, since the day I went I think I was the only "farang" at the track. The scene at the track reminded me of one those photo's from the 1930's--lots of screaming fans.

I don't think you can use pace handicapping here though, since the form/charts do not report internal fractions. However, the form does report final times to the hundreth of a second for each horse. The only betting is to win and place--no excatas. Place is for the top two or three finishers, depending on the number of entries.

They do have very simple jockey stats, post position stats, and stable stats. I haven't seen anything too detailed though. I'd only attempt to make my own stats, if I can purchase the raw data from the folks who publish the racing forms. I would also consider hiring someone (i.e. a penniless retired jockey) to trip handicap the races for me-- but only if I could get videos of all the races. (Minimum wage here is only $3 a day, so its definitely an affordable option.) My only concern though was a front page story in the Bangkok Nation the week I arrived. The article reported that a source alleged that the horse owners all get together the week before and decide among themselves who was going to win on Sunday. Of course, the article couldn't verify the accuracy of the source--but this is Thailand, so anything is possible.

Mel... I'll try to make it to the warroom on occassion--I think Friday night at 7PM EST is Saturday 7 AM here. That should give me a definite advantage, since I'll be a day ahead and will already know the outcome of the races (lol).

Anyway, its good to be back (sort of)...

Results to date... 2 1-0-0; $4 bet, $28.60 returned

Que.

[melman]

Que, there are plenty of people over here in the states who think that the owners get together and decide who is going to win the races. LOL I think your estimate of the time is correct. I also spent some time (1 year) in Southeast Asia so if memory is correct you are right on the mark. This should be a good set-up I will be in the War Room betting on races you already know the results of. LOL Hey I promise to split it with you 50/50. I should have known however that you would wind up with an apt overlooking the track. All the best Que.