The Mathematics of Horse Racing

[Zaf]

Has anyone read the "The Mathematics of Horse Racing by David B. Fogel" ?

I heard it shows you important factors to analyze at the race track and shows you methods for collecting your own data and doing your own analysis.

I am presently using Andy's (Game Theory) parsing program to extract certain information from the Equibase Charts. Its a great program and it is time saving !!!!

I am looking for a book or a source to maximize my potential from the parsed out data.

I am currently analysing biases (Post Position & beaten lengths at the 2nd call). I also look for key races, example : a 5K claimer that set the same fractional splits as a stakes race on the same card. This kind of stuff.

Any insight or resources would be appreciated. Thanks.

ZAFONIC

[Derek2U]

Yes, Z, I've read that book & it's quite good but do NOT expect
any insights into racing. Fogel uses the chi square stat & like
all stats its good for the sample & weak for the next race(s).
I read where Fogel is a true expert on AI & he's done some
Very impressive research into AI but this book is not even
remotely related to anything as interesting.

[Rick]

I agree with Derek. It's an interesting book at a reasonable price and even though the techniques he uses are used by statisticians, they don't apply very well to horse racing. It seems that horse racing data is a lot like economic data in that analysis of the past is only weakly predictive of the future. He does point out the significance of claims though, which is a valid conclusion.

[facorsig]

I recently bought this book...can't remember the specific reason, but it was related to a PA posting. This is an old title that was available on Amazon that I had to belly up $40 for. It is a pretty quick read (100 pages, maybe 2 hours), but not because it is full of old DRF charts like a lot of books. Yes, the book doesn't review racing, but it is a handbook on how to use statistics to prove or disprove any hypothesis you might have. I have used the same stats in the past as a quality engineer and was happy to see someone else using the methods I have been dabbling in. There are a few gems in the book relative to application of statistics. I thought the chapter on maximizing profits (selecting bet types) was very poor, but the early chapters were very good. Another drawback was that he repeats the same analytical method about twelve times over 20 pages, but this can be useful to a beginner.

[kenwoodallpromos]

You can try gleaning path taken by the ITM horses after 2nd call (bias trends); and final split times in relation to the other fractions (for speed of stretch and/or tiring track).

[Zaf]

But look at the date of that post sept 2002 , :lol: that was about a year before I started using CJ's Program. I wouldn't waste my time now doing something as silly as that :lol:

ZAFONIC

[oddswizard]

David is a good friend. He is not a handicapper. He is a great computer whiz & wrote the book
to prove that math, computers and racing can work together. He is an amazing guy. Computer whiz, great pianist, wonderful writer, and a certified airlines pilot. Got his commercial jet liner license as a lark. He started a wonderful magazine about horseracing called "The Inside Track". His writers included Joe Takach, Jay Priveman, Bruno DiJulio, Laura McAnally & yours truly. We all went to Del Mar several years ago and tried to out handicap each other. After the races we all had dinner together. What a day! David is from Del Mar area and is in business with his father.

[Dave Schwartz]

Rick,

It's an interesting book at a reasonable price...

Amazingly, that book was selling for as much as $300 two years ago.

The interesting part about the book is that he uses a statistical approach to assigning points for different factors. I have never seen that before.

It is one of the best books to read, especially if you can get it for a reasonable price. <G>


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[BillW]

Rick,

Amazingly, that book was selling for as much as $300 two years ago.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Dave,

Note the posting date - it was a few years ago. :)

Bill

[Dave Schwartz]

Bill,

LOL

Dave