Beyer numbers,Let me count the ways.

[John]

I have a friend that come to track. Adds the last two Beyer number together for every horse in the race. Looks at his top number and if the horse looks good on form and class etc. He is off to the windows.

Me, I only look at the Beyer's top numbers in Stake races.I personally feel Beyer's are good in big races and misleading in the other races.IMHO.

I would like to know if you use Beyer and in what way.

[46zilzal]

Would you red the LAST chapter of a book and have ANY idea what happened leading up to that conclusion? That is a Beyer number for you.

[Overlay]

Despite the prevalence and wide availability of Beyer figures, I've found that the average of a horse's Beyers in those races out of the last three that were run on the same surface (dirt or turf) as today's race, or of all of the last three races (if none were run on today's surface), continues to function effectively in absolute predictive power and in the relative ranking of a field, as long as you don't use them as a stand-alone measure (i.e, that you also consider factors such as condition, class, and pace), and also take odds into account (as would be the case with any single handicapping factor, no matter how potent, where basing play exclusively on that factor leads to overbetting and eventual loss of profitability).

[John]

Overlay I like your post.Very informative.

DRF has a tip sheet,on that sheet is what DRF call "Beyer Edge"

last 3 Beyers.....Highest average of the last 3 numbers on the same surface as todays race.

I posted because I wondered how many ways a Handicapper can utilize the Beyer numbers to enhance his final selection.

I feel if you real thought about it .you could fill a book.

[Overlay]

Would you red the LAST chapter of a book and have ANY idea what happened leading up to that conclusion? That is a Beyer number for you.

I understand what you're saying as far as not considering speed in a vacuum. There's always been a lively dialogue between the proponents of speed and pace, but I think each has its proper place in the handicapper's arsenal. And I would find it hard to dismiss out-of-hand the impact that Beyer-style figures have had on handicapping, even if they're not the be-all and end-all of the player's considerations, or if they don't produce the pari-mutuel return by themselves that they once did.

And thanks for the compliment, John.

[JPinMaryland]

interesting thread. When handicapping football it seems to me, the last three (or maybe four) games seems to be all the data pts. that really matter. Since teams abilities are changing so quickly from week to week due injuries, different weather conditions, etc.

it is one of those things that may seem obvious or no big deal but if you work on the theory of trying to be one step ahead of the betting public the idea can pay dividends. For ex. the general public will usual favor say a 9-3 team over an 8-5 team, even if the 8-5 team is one a 3 game win streak. The public just doesnt seem to quite factor that in enuf.

It also seems true in baseball. Red Sox vs Cardinals 2005 World Series being a great example. So many people were swayed by the Cards .600+ win percentage over the course of a season but the Sox were playing good at the time..

interesting.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I really like when Beyer numbers increase every race for a youngster.
Sometimes I see what looks like a bad race but the Beyer is decent so the horse is not a throwout.

[cnollfan]

I like horses shipping from mid-major tracks to California or New York with Beyers several points below their big-city rivals. Can't prove it, but I believe that the numbers are biased in favor of the coasts, and the "projection method" makes those biases a self-perpetuating, self-fulfilling prophecy.

I like to look at the median Beyer of the last five. Quicker and easier than an average.

I eliminate most all 3 year-olds that have not run a Beyer at 3 as high as they ran as a 2yo. Horses are supposed to improve from 2 to 3, so it is a red flag if they haven't. Great method for tossing out some low-priced losers that many handicappers expect to improve because it is "second or third start after a layoff."

Litfin has some good comments about getting nice prices on lightly raced maidens making their second or third lifetime start with Beyers well below those of multiple-start maidens.

Like to bet against high Beyer earned in circumstances unlikely to be repeated. Bellamy Road in the 2005 Derby comes to mind.

[ELA]

We all know what the Beyer # represents; and more importantly what is neglects, doesn't include, doesn't take into consideration, etc.

If someone claims that never look at them, that's fine. I am OK with that, and I don't have a problem with that. It's hard for me to not look at them -- they are right there, staring at me, LOL.

I think that if someone wants to look at this "speed" figure in a myopic fashion, and they fully understand that it is a myopic, limited, one-dimensional element, that's great.

Do I "use" Beyer #'s? I look at them, I consider them, I look at how out of town #'s may not be accurate and if that offers me some sort of angle or edge. I have not been told that so-and-so ran a such-and-such Beyer # and became sold on the bet. It does not play that role for me.

Eric

[John]

[QUOTE=cnollfan]
I eliminate most all 3 year-olds that have not run a Beyer at 3 as high as they ran as a 2yo. Horses are supposed to improve from 2 to 3, so it is a red flag if they haven't. Great method for tossing out some low-priced losers that many handicappers expect to improve because it is "second or third start after a layoff."

crollfan, Good information

That is a golden nougat that you posted.

Thanks :jump: :jump:

[cnollfan]

Thank you. Hope that it is useful.

[bigmack]

When real numbers aren't at your avail and you have little else to go on they give an indication. IMO - They've lost their luster against other numbers that have become more sophisticated.

Kinda like the difference between the monster in Young Frankenstein when he's scared and confused verses when he's singin' "Puttin on the Ritz"

[dav4463]

I use the Beyer numbers as a major part of my handicapping. They are good enough for me. I'm familiar with them. I notice winning patterns with Beyers better than other speed figures because I am used to them. I don't care if they are a few points off here and there because I use them as a general idea of how good this horse can run. Sometimes I look to beat the top Beyers, other times they offer unexpected value. Patterns are big for me. If I see a horse that ran an 81 seven races back and his last couple of races are 53 and 57.......and the top Beyer figure horse in the race ran a 63, but maybe has topped out, then the improving lower figure horse is a great play for me. That's just one example. Another that comes up a lot in maiden races is what I label as "second tier Beyer horses". There will be a race with a few firsters, and maybe four or five horses that have any Beyers at all. If there are two or three that ran for example in the 60's.....and a second tier horse that ran in the 30's, 40's or 50's, but fits the class, maybe some early speed and is improving, then that's my play. Second Tier Beyer horses that I play and hit usually are at double-digit odds so I don't have to hit many.

[John]

Yeah Dave. Good stuff,

I remember reading somewhere that horses that raced only once with low Beyer numbers will improve that number by as much as 40 points.

I use CJ's Pacefigures numbers. I am use to them.They are good enough for me.I like to ask people how they use Beyers numbers and then try out their method with CJ's numbers.....Its fun.

[Snag]

Here is a fun thing to use with the Beyers numbers on MCl races.

Box the three or four high Beyers if a majority of the runners have run before. You may be surprised how many times this works. I use it mainly at the smaller tracks. It seems to work only on MCl races though.

[John]

Thanks Snag...I will give it a try.

[Tom]

.....If there are two or three that ran for example in the 60's.....and a second tier horse that ran in the 30's, 40's or 50's, but fits the class, maybe some early speed and is improving, then that's my play. Second Tier Beyer horses that I play and hit usually are at double-digit odds so I don't have to hit many.

Good point - you have to understand your numbers to use them correctly - last out high number is the path to ruin. Horses improve thier Beyers by 10-20 points frequently - and it is not anything to bat an eye at. A front runner that gets his act together and improves 5-6 lengths will show a large Beyer improvement. If you can predict the 85 to run a 75 today, and the 69 to run a 79, you are on the right track.

[John]

Nice Tom...

Can you use the race par as a guide to your prediction. Higher than par could bounce...lower than par could improve

[Tom]

No, I never use pars for that. I use the horse's own record to judge that kind of stuff. I love horses that exceed par, the more the merrier - theses guy fo on to bigger things. Sub par seem to be destined to stay there.

[John]

TOM,

Question: can you depend on Bris pars that are at the top of each race in the past performances ?

[Tom]

I don't in all cases.
The way BRIS makes pars is kind of screwy.
NY Bred races are usually way over rated.
In real races -they are not all that bad as a guidline.
I prefer, when using BRIS, to use the pace pars - E and EP must meet eithier the E1/E2 pars, of the sum of them, and the P,S horss must meet the LP or E2+Lp pars.

Works well enough, but be flexible. If LP par is 98, I'll go with a 96.

[Tom]

Would you red the LAST chapter of a book and have ANY idea what happened leading up to that conclusion? That is a Beyer number for you.

Do you begin at the break call? That is the first "chapter." Or do you start at the pace call, intermission?

Is not the TM SR part of contender selection in the Sartin Methodolgy?
Same thing.

[KingChas]

Good point - you have to understand your numbers to use them correctly - last out high number is the path to ruin. Horses improve thier Beyers by 10-20 points frequently - and it is not anything to bat an eye at.

One good example is Sinister Minister at Keenland! :D

[46zilzal]

Do you begin at the break call? That is the first "chapter." Or do you start at the pace call, intermission?

Is not the TM SR part of contender selection in the Sartin Methodolgy?
Same thing.

break might be good at Los Alamitos but not with T-breds

[Tom]

Oh yeah?
Two E hosres, need the lead, one breaks clean, one breaks 5th and has to rush up to get even by the 1st call.
Who do you want your money on?
Many races are lost at the break.

[46zilzal]

Oh yeah?
Two E hosres, need the lead, one breaks clean, one breaks 5th and has to rush up to get even by the 1st call.
Who do you want your money on?
Many races are lost at the break.
one cannot predict that

[dav4463]

Another maiden play similar to second tier Beyer horses is the lightly-raced horse with potential. It is simple, but comes up fairly often. The race is full of horses that have lost 8 or 9+ races at the class level or lower and have run Beyers in the 40's, 50's, or 60's. Then you have a horse who has one start and ran a 12, but showed speed and faded or has a top jock aboard today. The public ignores these horses frequently.

Another top figure play I like is Top Last out Beyer horse moving up in class facing a field where it looks like he is outclassed. At 5-1+ odds, the top figure horse may be worth a play provided the horse has something else going for him, either a bit of early speed, a top jock or trainer or maybe ran at a higher class track. Another top figure horse I like is when the horse with the top figure ships in from a smaller track and gets ignored by the public, such as Sunland Park to Lone Star Park. I don't remember the horse, but I remember a very nice price of better than 9-1.

[Tom]

one cannot predict that

One can if they know what to look for - it is not 100%, but it is there.

[46zilzal]

One can if they know what to look for - it is not 100%, but it is there.
maybe at 400 yds at Blue Ribbon Downs

[RXB]

Two E hosres, need the lead, one breaks clean, one breaks 5th and has to rush up to get even by the 1st call.
Who do you want your money on?
Many races are lost at the break.

:ThmbUp:

[Tom]

maybe at 400 yds at Blue Ribbon Downs

Use it every day at every track - everytime I compare two E horses.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I was lookiong for TLG to post. Now I remember- TLG is at Sar!