stuck between two ideas

[46zilzal]

I don't play Turfway any longer awaiting on just how the change would effect an entire season: will try it THIS year with all those PP lines to refer to.

Just read what Beyer said about the surface being so uniform that many a big time player will lose their edge on seeing biases. As a long time supporter of "hidden speed," the idea of a surface that takes away that advantage I have so long cultivated makes me shy away from it.

BUT, there is the documented evidence of it being safer.

Still sitting on the fence until I see how it will change (and destroy I am afraid) my speedy understanding of Woodbine. Well I have until August to exploit that bias.

[JPinMaryland]

so what are the two ideas you are stuck on here?

[kenwoodallpromos]

"Just read what Beyer said about the surface being so uniform"
Humor me, but that is also called "playing fair". You just jave to handicap good enough to overcome the take + break.
Back to basic handicapping! stamina, post position, horses-for-courses, etc.
I would probably stay away from runners who bleed through lasix until the kickback is fixed.

[46zilzal]

speed Si
Stamina boo

Dichotomy: want the advantage that is there and the crowd doesn't know but the safety is a good idea.

BS...I don't want it fair after all the time it took me to identify the advantage and following the courses where it is extant.

[kenwoodallpromos]

speed Si
Stamina boo

Dichotomy: want the advantage that is there and the crowd doesn't know but the safety is a good idea.

BS...I don't want it fair after all the time it took me to identify the advantage and following the courses where it is extant.
_________________

Trainer Wayne Bearden 54-starts 23-wins 9 5 $168,227

[46zilzal]

_________________

Trainer Wayne Bearden 54-starts 23-wins 9 5 $168,227
that MIGHT be helpful if I followed trainers any more than at the 15% competence level

[Indulto]

speed Si
Stamina boo

Dichotomy: want the advantage that is there and the crowd doesn't know but the safety is a good idea.

BS...I don't want it fair after all the time it took me to identify the advantage and following the courses where it is extant.46,
So you're the one breeding all those fragile early-speed types. ;)

I would think someone able to discern any handicapping advantages based on track characteristics will continue to do after the surface/configuration change. As a transplanted NY fan (as opposed to professional) in So Cal, I miss being able to confidently pick a closer. My favorite DRF comments are "Closed with a rush" and "Came from the clouds."

Give me Polytrack or give me breath! :D

[46zilzal]

the reality of racing is knowing the speed. I can't help that I discovered it and exploit it at courses where it is king.

I like stamina, but that doesn't sell. I love the Precisionists and the Siphons that go to the front and never look back.

[kenwoodallpromos]

that MIGHT be helpful if I followed trainers any more than at the 15% competence level
__
Sorry! If a 50+ start trainer with 43% wins on a track Beyer thinks is scerwy fair I cannot help you!!LOL!!

[46zilzal]

4
I would think someone able to discern any handicapping advantages based on track characteristics will continue to do after the surface/configuration change.
WIth the software I have, that will become a reality but it will take a season of racing to know what is significant. I guess I will have to sign off on Woodbine until there is enough to evaluate. In the late days of that meet, I used to make a real killing just finding the horse having the lead at the second call as they did not stop. Oh well, this old dog can learn, it just takes time.

[Jeff P]

Keep in mind it's not set in stone that speed won't continue to do well once they start running on WO's artificial surface. The WO dirt surface is speed favoring because the track maintenance crew does things to keep it that way.

Last year's Turfway meet was interesting... There were days when it seemed like speed held up remarkably well. And there were days when the speed just couldn't stay on. Based on what I saw I came away with two beliefs:

1. Polytrack isn't exactly the bias free surface everybody says it is.

2. A fit horse can race an unfit horse into the ground no matter what the surface... hell, if they made them SWIM instead of run - I still think the majority of races would go to the fittest not the fastest... not much different in fact than racing on plain old dirt.

-jp

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