HSH Live

[Sly7449]

Greetings,



Today, as in many other sessions that I sat in with Dave and others, was a remarkable demonstration as to making HSH an excellent tool for handicapping.

Dave presented his Creativity in selecting Contenders then proceeded to perform some Artistic procedures to Construct his Wager.

His ROI for the Session was $2.53 right before our eyes. It was like Magic in a sense, magic because he is so skillful in the use of the computer, that his swift mouse strokes made me dizzy. Bottom line was that he was Producing.

His demonstration convinced me that it is Very Possible to Bring Home The Bacon with HSH.

Creativity into your Contender Process followed by Artistic Magic, can lead you to the Short Line.

To get to Dave's level, it's gonna take Practice. With Post Time approaching in less than 1 minute, there is No Time for Second Guessing.

Golly! It's tough to explain. Hop along for the ride and see for yourself.

L8R Sly

[Dave Schwartz]

Just in case anyone might be interested, here is a link to the "live play" folder on our server.
http://horsestreet.com/package/LivePlay/

Every race was bet live in front of at least one person.

Here is a direct link to the summary of the seven live play days I have done this year:
http://horsestreet.com/package/LivePlay/Summary-To-Date.txt

Btw, this approach is what I am teaching in the Basics of Winning class.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: One thing Sly has wrong is that there was absolutely zero art in what I did. It was 100% rule-based.

[Topcat]

Earning while learning! Interesting. I would be interested in anyone who has attended the class(es) sharing.

Races Wins Horses Profit $Net

66 46 173 $1,218.30 $2.37

[shanta]

Dave sent me an invite yesterday to sit in on his live play session and I did.

First time seeing what he does and it was quite amazing. He goes through a few screens- gets a contender "mix" - has a betting line in front of him ( that is constantly being updated).

He uses a lot of his tools on the software to help him with decisions such as:

1) WHEN to consider FTS a serious threat and possible bet. He has a screen that he uses for this to help him I noticed.

2) another screen where he can break a tie between 2 horses being considered

3) a dutching screen where he enters the horses he wants to bet and it automatically lays out the bet amounts to be made on each horse in his mix of bets.

4) a whole lot more. I just got stuck watching the speed at which all of this was going down :)

This all sounds like a lot of work. It is but his software did all this in like 10 seconds man. Really something to see in "real time" play.

Very impressive Dave and thanx for the invite. :ThmbUp:

Richie

[xtb]

Dave, is dutching your prefered wagering method and do you use HMI when dutching? Thanks.

[Dave Schwartz]

Personally, I am a dutch player and I advocate dutching for most players. If you aren't a "batch-bettor" then you can only handle two or three horses in a dutch. I play these live sessions as if the I were a non-rebate, contender player.


HMI does not work in our day-to-day play because the bets are always at a maximum level (relative to our BR).


Dave

[Jake]

Dave,

Assuming everyone uses your dutching approach with the same decision rules as you, and same $net factors (not sure this is stated correctly here), how do you keep your playing ROI up? Even split across 3 horses, aren't you still at risk for hammering the pools at small tracks. I could see how the "churn" might be valuable for rebates, but given your software, isn't everyone landing on the same group of horses to dutch?

In other words, won't overexposure erode positive $net's as everyone rolls this forward?

[Sly7449]

Jake,

Your point is well taken but I think that Steven Crist "Exotic Betting" had pointed out that the $ is NOT in the Win pool anymore.

I am see a lot of Good Tri's with a $4.00 horse on top.

Dave stresses that each person have to make it their own and not just COPY his Factors, Filters and Setup. He is giving us a guide. We the User have to become Creative based on our individual Style of play.

Basically, how to use the tool within the massive toolbox called HSH.

I am almost sure that Dave has other Setups but use one for Live Play as a Demo. Bottom line, the METHOD WORKS.

Some Users are slow to learn or Hard Head :bang: .

I do belong to one of the catz above.

Thanks to Dave for all the patience he has while helping me. He may add that I belong to both :lol:

I am still in the Candy Store of HSH:rolleyes: , trying to get to that 90% Contenders in the Top 5.

Sorry, no progress report but there are some examples I posted on HSH website.

L8R

Sly

[Dave Schwartz]

Jake,

No two players uuse HSH the same way. The concepts of how to wager the horses could be similar yet they are on different horses.

My own approach to the game is to spread far wider than just the top 3 or 4 contenders.

Dave

[Jake]

Sly,

I wasn't being critical of the approach at all. For the individual player, it's an exceedingly brainy method for dutching. In fact, given the late surges of pool money at various tracks, it may be as good as it gets for dutching. But looking at Dave's LivePlay package, my question is what happens if you now have 50 players making the same plays or even roughly the same plays, and dutching for $200 or $300 per race now? At the smaller tracks, that is certainly going to saturate some of the pools and relative ROI. Rolling forward, those dampened $nets for the same factors are going to be there in dutching sessions down the road, like one long daisy chain. Again, not being critical of the approach itself here, which is ingenious, but I wonder about some of the possible ROI consequences of widespread use.

Certainly, some of your answers suggest why it might not be a problem. But this line from Dave rang a bell: "One thing Sly has wrong is that there was absolutely zero art in what I did. It was 100% rule-based." While I understand that you can change the setups, factors, and filters, my best guess is that if total play is affecting the $net for the best predictive factors, then this will propagate modeling forward.

[Jake]

Dave,

I didn't see your response before I posted my last response. Thanks for your reply.

[timtam]

Dave,
Do you use either your Opponent Method or Horse Market betting

plan when you wager each and every race? Which is best for dutching?

[Dave Schwartz]

Jake,

If everyone used my precise approach to handicapping, of course, it would not work any more.

The point was not "do exactly what I do," although only God knows why nobody does exactly what I do. I have certainly shared it with enough users.

The point was "Here is the process that I use... now go find your own system and make it work." Kind of like a template where you supply the handicapping and I supply the... wagering methods.


Dave

PS: TimTam, Since we are always maximizing our bets, we do not have the ability to apply any money management beyond flat betting each race.

[Jake]

Jake,

If everyone used my precise approach to handicapping, of course, it would not work any more.

The point was not "do exactly what I do," although only God knows why nobody does exactly what I do. I have certainly shared it with enough users.

The point was "Here is the process that I use... now go find your own system and make it work." Kind of like a template where you supply the handicapping and I supply the... wagering methods.


Dave

PS: TimTam, Since we are always maximizing our bets, we do not have the ability to apply any money management beyond flat betting each race.

Dave,

The key question is, do you believe $net for the predictive factors is going to be affected long term? This is not meant as a criticism as all.

I see it as the curse of superior handicapping software. Jeff has alluded on this board to what he sees as heavy betdowns on his JRated horses and has pulled current sales of his program. While he may be right about the reasons why those horses have been hammered, an alternative reason that I believe is true is simply there are a number of excellent programs out there, like HSH, that are finding the same type of plays (JRated 1 style plays). When I looked at a number of J1 horse listed on his website over the last few months, I saw a high % overlap with what my own program was selecting to play as well. And, I would guess that with your dutching approach--precisely because of the $net approach--a large percentage of JRated 1 or 2 horses are likely to be a dutch contenders.

I don't know where that leaves the serious handicapper. I do believe that it will affect ROI's down the road. I think that the more people that adopt an approach that gravitates toward handicapping a particular type of horse (ROI positive for factor sets) or even a group of horses will modifiy the original basis for the approach. Unintended consequences, but certainly worth discussing in depth.

[Sly7449]

Jake,

Absorb this a bit.

As I stated in my initial reply to you, take some time and read Steve Crist book on Exotic Betting.

This may help you and others better understand the discussion.

Yeah! aLL the Exotics begins with the WIN SLOT but if you can ZERO IN on the WIN, that would chop down on boxing and move one towards a KEY in the Win Slot. Hope you catch my drift.

There may be other books that address this concept.

Maybe the NEXT revolution in hcping is for the 2,3,and 4 slots.

Don't fight it!

L8R

Sly

[trying2win]

DAVE:

Very impressive results over the 6 days of 'LIVE PLAY" with HSH. Good show!


T2W

[Dave Schwartz]

Jake,

Since I know your personal level of knowledge and experience (and have a small clue as to your level of success), I know that you are asking this question from an educated standpoint.

Your point is, theoretically, valid.

However, the truth is that I have shared my personal HSH system on videos, in live plays and in classes. To my knowledge nobody is using it. Go figure.



Dave

[Jake]

Jake,

Since I know your personal level of knowledge and experience (and have a small clue as to your level of success), I know that you are asking this question from an educated standpoint.

Your point is, theoretically, valid.

However, the truth is that I have shared my personal HSH system on videos, in live plays and in classes. To my knowledge nobody is using it. Go figure.


Dave

Dave,

I appreciate your reply, and have to laugh at its likely accuracy, gauging the responses so far to my postings. So that's the right answer!

As far as a dutching process goes, you managed something very remarkable here. The various handicapping requirements are meshed together in perfect sequence. When it came to my dutching research, it was something I could never quite figure out, so I moved in the opposite direction. So it's fun to see someone that can make dutching work so well, and the craft in your method. Thanks.

Jake