quantum picks pinnacle and betcris matchups

[formula_2002]

the right way :jump: :jump:

DATE-TRACK-R# race' NAME line PGNO
7/19/2006 BEL R6 NORTH -126 2 play
7/19/2006 BEL R6 JELLY 110 3

7/19/2006 BEL R7 HOMER -114 7
7/19/2006 BEL R7 FIDDL -102 10 play

7/19/2006 BEL R9 GOOD -127 4 play
7/19/2006 BEL R9 BOLD 111 10

7/19/2006 DMR R1 PRIES 120 2
7/19/2006 DMR R1 SLOW -136 4 play

7/19/2006 DMR R6 LIGHT -140 3 play
7/19/2006 DMR R6 GET F 124 8

7/19/2006 DMR R8 FILM 124 1
7/19/2006 DMR R8 OBRIG -140 3 play

7/19/2006 DMR R8 NEW J -190 6 play
7/19/2006 DMR R8 HIT I 174 7

7/19/2006 DMR R9 INDIA -119 4 play
7/19/2006 DMR R9 SOLID 103 7

[DomePatrol2006]

whats the difference, u had ALOT more plays yesterday :confused:

[ryesteve]

These are matchup plays.

My question: where are the Betcris picks? These look like Pinnacle only

[formula_2002]

this should do it.. bottom half is betcris


date track NAME line PGNO play
7/19/2006 BEL R6 NORTH -126 2 play
7/19/2006 BEL R6 JELLY 110 3

7/19/2006 BEL R7 HOMER -114 7
7/19/2006 BEL R7 FIDDL -102 10 play

7/19/2006 BEL R9 GOOD -127 4 play
7/19/2006 BEL R9 BOLD 111 10

7/19/2006 DMR R1 PRIES 120 2
7/19/2006 DMR R1 SLOW -136 4 play

7/19/2006 DMR R6 LIGHT -140 3 play
7/19/2006 DMR R6 GET F 124 8

7/19/2006 DMR R8 FILM 124 1
7/19/2006 DMR R8 OBRIG -140 3 play

7/19/2006 DMR R8 NEW J -190 6 play
7/19/2006 DMR R8 HIT I 174 7

7/19/2006 DMR R9 INDIA -119 4 play
7/19/2006 DMR R9 SOLID 103 7

7/19/2006 BEL R3 GREAT -132 3 play
7/19/2006 BEL R3 SHADY 112 5

7/19/2006 BEL R5 GORGEO -145 4 play
7/19/2006 BEL R5 FLYING 125 5

7/19/2006 BEL R7 HOMERE 110 7
7/19/2006 BEL R7 MY NIN -130 8 play

7/19/2006 BEL R9 PRAIRI -115 9 play
7/19/2006 BEL R9 HIGHLA -105 6

7/19/2006 DMR R1 SLOW N -145 4 play
7/19/2006 DMR R1 SIGFRE 125 3

7/19/2006 DMR R6 LIGHTN -150 3 play
7/19/2006 DMR R6 GET FU 130 8

7/19/2006 DMR R7 KELLY -155 1 play
7/19/2006 DMR R7 NIFTY 135 2

7/19/2006 DMR R8 FILM F 115 1
7/19/2006 DMR R8 OBRIGA -135 3 play

[ryesteve]

Wow.. you're laying odds on every race
(but then again, so am I :D )

[formula_2002]

Wow.. you're laying odds on every race
(but then again, so am I :D )
From rather early on, It was apparent that the lay-odds seem to be the way to go.

I find when I lay odds on matchups with an edge my way it does very well.
Laying odds when I do not have an edge does very poorly,,
With an edge (lay odds) the results for 130 plays are;
61 % winners, 7% profit

With no edge(lay odds), the results are
53% winners, 5% loss..

Sounds good to me :)

[DomePatrol2006]

I dont understand this method :confused:

[formula_2002]

I dont understand this method :confused:
These are "Match Plays" offered by Pinnacle and Bet cris.
You bet one horse to finish ahead of the other.
Take a look at,http://www.pinnaclesports.com/default.asp
and
http://www.betcris.com/

I dont actually bet these beast, I just pick'em!!

[DomePatrol2006]

These are "Match Plays" offered by Pinnacle and Bet cris.
You bet one horse to finish ahead of the other.
Take a look at,http://www.pinnaclesports.com/default.asp
and
http://www.betcris.com/

I dont actually bet these beast, I just pick'em!!

Oh ok thanks.

[formula_2002]

Up to the 7th, 8th and 9th at DMR, 6 wins 11 plays down $17, played $1448...

[formula_2002]

with 1 race remaining, 10 wins, 15 plays, +$383, played $2068

[whobet]

If you are hitting 61% does that mean you would be making money,
like 50% is breaking even,

or is there a takeout off the top, that makes you have to hit more then 50 %

Haven't looked into this,

sounds interesting.

[formula_2002]

If you are hitting 61% does that mean you would be making money,
like 50% is breaking even,

or is there a takeout off the top, that makes you have to hit more then 50 %

Haven't looked into this,

sounds interesting.

When you convert the $ lines to book %
you find the take is about 3%

If you play a matchup of say 101, -117
101/100= 1.01-1(dollar odds)
100/117 = .854-1(dollar odds)

convert those to book % and you get
1/2.01=.497
1/1.854=.539
the sum is (.497+.539)=1.036
1-(1/1.036)=3.47% take-out

To break even, you have to win the book % x (1+take-out).
So in this case, if you are backing the lay odds horse(-117), you have to win .539 X 1.0347 = 55.77% of the time to break even.
Hope this helps.

[formula_2002]

To break even, you have to win the book % x (1+take-out).
So in this case, if you are backing the lay odds horse(-117), you have to win .539 X 1.0347 = 55.77% of the time to break even.
Hope this helps.

That's not right
it's;To break even, you have to win the book % rate.

So in this case, if you are backing the lay odds horse(-117), you have to win .539 % of the time to break even.


100 x 53.917=5392
117 x (100-53.917)=5392

[formula_2002]

finals, 11 wins, 16 plays, +490, 2187 played