The prolonged losing streak

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Yesterday i had a conversation with the most successful horseplayer (in terms of durability and money won from playing horses) that i have ever been associated with.I'll call him Bobby.

Bobby is a well schooled and hard working handicapper who plies his trade on an everyday basis in the big apple with occasional play in southern california and the better midwest tracks.

When he has a strong opinion the man is fearless and will alway's invest with an eye on the big prize.Bobby is heavily into the exotics,mainly pick3's pick 4's and pick 6's with plenty of exacta and trifecta play along with situational win betting at worthwhile prices.He is complete with his wagers and will leave a bad favorite out of all of his exotic combinations without a second thought.I have seen massive scores in the past with this disciplined play.

Since Belmont park has opened he has literally been ran over ,chewed up and spit out for lack of any other language.Here is a very disciplined horseplayer who has been battling the game tooth and nail with success for better than 20 years and he is having by far his worst meet ever.

Bobby has had "normal" losing streaks in the past ,and some that were borderling troublesome that affected his confidence,but he was alway's able to ride out the bumpy period and start a winning phase .(We all know the feeling of the roller coaster up and down winning and losing cycles that occur with serious parimutuel play).

These past ten weeks since the Belmont Park opening has been by far the worst of the worst and has really destroyed his once confident operating bankroll.

Since i am a straight up type of guy and do not give advice unless i am asked to do so i really can't offer any advice in this situation as Bobby has really had to do some real soul searching to find out if this is the end of his serious play in this game.

My question to all on this fine site.Have you experienced this "once in a lifetime prolonged losing streak".I guess it's really a battle between you and yourself to find a solution to a situation so gut wrenching and psychologically tormenting to a player...i hope Bobby can take a much needed break and re-calculate his plan .

Thanks Zappi

[kenwoodallpromos]

"http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=4"
Note the Sustainers (Closers) and Pressors (off the pace) who have been winning, the outside and middle areas; now look at the average exacta and quinella prices. The number going wire to wire is less than you may expect for sprints also.
To me that says the overall expected win probabilities is down, but the average winning payoff is $5.+.
Maybe that just means the best overall horses win, regardles of early speed or post position. But between Win and Place there must have been a decent amount of surprises or longshot getting minor awards.
I wonder if the trend will continue at Sar?
Losing streaks? If I have a few more than expected loses I immediately review for track bias!
I have not checked at Bel.

[kenwoodallpromos]

http://www.nyracing.com/chart/postpos.asp?track=B

NOTE- for dirt sprints, post 6-9 is surprisingly good; for sprints and routes post #1 is good, but 2-4 dips a little more than might expect.

[BIG49010]

I had similar problem last year at Belmont, between the rain, NY Breds, and short fields it was a tough meet for me.

This year my wife spent most of it in the hospital, so I haven't played it at all, but the first couple weeks were starting out like my meet last year, and as I review the results for the balance of the meet, I may have saved some bankroll.

[JustRalph]

check out this old thread

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26385&highlight=Losing+streak

[AngelEyes]

Sorry to be negative but the high takeout rates he's fighting against is just too overpowering to beat for very long - even with rebates.

[Pickwick]

This is a response I made to a handicapping friend who mentioned this thread to me.

As you know, I went through a short bad spell during the current Belmont meet, but overall I have done quite well, better than last year, which was good.

I will readily admit, though, that there have been a number of simply inexplicable results, and that the track which normally plays very well to early speed has not this year. All one has to do to confirm that is check out C.J.’s biases.

To be honest with you, during the past 4 years I have not kept as meticulous records as I normally would have, so I can't tell you for sure what my strength has been at this meet.

I know that you gave me a real strong tip that the C.J. PF's were excellent indicators of potential for strong next-out performance for grass racing, and I have focused almost entirely on that plus final fractions for that surface and have done well.

But as this seems to be an ever-changing game that needs evolving approaches, I also have recently picked up a couple of different handicapping slants, including taking the time to check out charts and race alignments, and such, which as I've said I don't place a ton of emphasis on, but do use on occasion.

The other main recent handicapping inclusion and area of strong emphasis is early pace.

This has to do with internal fractions, and despite the overall unbiased or non-speed favoring main track this spring/summer meet, this particular function has served me very well at Belmont and elsewhere.

Since I prefer D/D's Pick 3's and Pick 4's which focus only on the win slot, C.J.'s PaceFigures data, including the pace/pace angle, his originative speed point and bias calculations, performance figures, triple tops, etc., cashing more than my share of these wagers is very likely the reason for my success.

I do stay in the race also, mostly with the win wager, but also some exacta and trifecta play.

I respect "Bobby" and do hope and expect him to "right the ship" soon, because he understands and practices the hard work that is needed to succeed in our game.

One last note.

I don’t log onto or contribute much to this forum; wish I was able to do more.

But believe it or not, I just now noticed that I have some private emails sitting here, about 12 (some going back a few years) that I was completely unaware of.

I apologize to the people who wrote me privately. I didn’t just snub you; I simply didn’t see that you had written.

-Jim

[Faster]

I am not surprised that good players go through loosing streaks as making the right play does not necessarily guarantee victory. The trick is to persevere at doing the right thing without deviation into something else.
Eventually your friend will find himsef in the right place and at the right time again, surprising himself how easy the game really is.
:)
Btw, without checking back on it it seems that Belmont was kinda chalky recently with occasional inexplicable bombs, so I wouldn't be surprised that value players are having some delays in collecting profits.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Thanks for the replies gentleman.One point i want to stress in relation to Bobby and his streak is that he was alway's a real tough player (never letting his results effect his future play).He would make minor adjustments and keep plugging along and making money where most anyone would have taken a break or given up due to the highly stressful and volitile bankroll fluctuations.

In this current downside his losing period has been too long and has totally depleted his once massive bankroll.Truthfully this is all his mistake IMO, and i'm sure Bobby would be the first to admit that he controls his own destiny.

Andy Beyer used to say in print years ago that he was amazed at how long and devasting a period of losing can continue while playing this game.And who knows better than him.

zappi

[classhandicapper]

This meet has been full of surprising outcomes.

IMO, there is a difference between handicapping a race, isolating contenders, settling on one, betting him and watching him lose to another logical horse in a way that makes perfect sense given the trips and questions going in, and doing the same thing and watching a horse win that you couldn't pick or understand no matter how you looked at the race.

I was just commenting on that on CJ's board the other day. I think this meet has seen more illogical horses run well than is typical. Certainly WAAAAAY more than at Aqueduct.

I'd also like to add that this is a partucularly tough meet to begin with because there are many first time turfers, many horses that haven't turfed for a long time (winter just ended), horses coming off a layoff, shippers from warm weather tracks, and the nature of the track tends to be different than Aqu (certainly the Inner Dirt). So until you start seeing some established form at Belmont, you either have to make a lot of guesses or pass a lot of races. We also had a lot of rain.

[Faster]

.

I was just commenting on that on CJ's board the other day. I think this meet has seen more illogical horses run well than is typical. Certainly WAAAAAY more than at Aqueduct.

Although I think I know what you mean, and even might have put it the same way, all results and the way the races unfold must be logical, otherwise we are in trouble.

The truth must be that sometimes we are not able to predict the outcome and that whatever circumstances have played the role in the outcome it eludes us so much that it seems unpredictible even after the race, so to speak.

I think what I am trying to say that I am hoping that at the races random events happen less frequently than it appears .

[DeanT]

In this current downside his losing period has been too long and has totally depleted his once massive bankroll.


Zappi,

How much has his bankroll gone down? Cut in a quarter or more?

Mine was cut down to about a quarter earlier this year. I too could ride the waves, but this one was tidal. I was screwed up because I never experienced this before. I took a few weeks off and came back doing a few things (knowing by analyzing bets that it wasn't my handicapping that was the problem. The problem was "me"):

1) Consolidated my accounts (I played in three) and added as much as I could to the bankroll. Playing with a small bankroll when used to a larger one kills everything you have come accustomed to, imo. I started with a fresh slate. I even started back on the 1st of the month, because I keep track monthly.

2) Completely started thinking about bet sizing- first and foremost- before making the bet. When I play at a certain bankroll level, I get used to that, and calculate bet size by feel. When my bankroll was cut I kept on playing at a level that was too much for my bankroll (even tho I "thought" I cut my bet size enough). I did this almost subconsciously. Very bad. Now I take time to think "is this bet too big?", before I make the bet. I do that on every bet now.

3) Started taking all "action type" bets out of the equation. I know in a pick 4 how much I like a potential key. In my losing streak I pushed and played those keys with too much confidence. If I did not have that innate indescribable feeling of the potential value of that key, I simply sat the race/pick 4 out, or played a very small ticket.

I know there is nothing earth-shattering in those thoughts, but that is what I did.

Since I dont post here (thank you all for the excellent reading, btw), I know I don't have any credibility on the board, so take those thoughts any way you like. I just thought I would chime in, as I have had a similar thing happen to me recently, and it was not pretty.

Best luck to your friend.

[Vegas711]

He has a very long losing streak becouse Bobby is trying to hit LOW probability type wagers, its very possible to lose hundreds of supers or tris in a row,in a 12 horse field there are a possible 11,880 combinations(12 x 11x10x9 ) you pick 24 conmbos you have a 1 in 495 chance of hitting........this is assuming only looking with no idea of who is the best horse.


If there is anyone right now who is going through a rough time lossing a lot of money instead of staying home, get your self a $40 voucher place 2 to 3 dollar place bets at the end of the day keep your voucher until either its gone or you have doubled its value. This will get your conidence back and you will return to your winning days.

I did this last November after going 0 for 20, Today I am still playing with that original voucher , I have multipled that voucher so many times that I cant keep track of it............... This works folks......... I believe one thing it does is it teaches you that by not cashing in at the end of the night that you will not feel like at the end of the day you have to recover all your losses, the voucher will be there for tommorow.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I know for a fact that Bobby had an operating bankroll of $300,000 plus earlier in the year.As i stated in my first post i as a rule do not ask personal questions relating to bankroll size and losses,however this figure is the amount that Bobby quoted at the years beginning.

As an estimate his bankroll is probably below $25,000,which with his daily handle is not very large.I know he participates in rebates that probably will off set his figure to a slight degree.

To answer your reply Vegas L yes Bobby has the bulk of his handle on the lower percentage exotic situations,that has been his over whelming success for the past 15 years or so.Yet IMO he makes a good number of sizable straight wagers on horses 8-1 and up with good success.He has alway's had a some what balanced plan of attack probably 75% exotics 25% straight win or win/place.

Like i have said in the past i have come across some real sharp players through out the years mostly on the nyra circuit,and Bobby was always the rock solid main stay staying the course where others understandably so curtailed play or greatly reduced at some point (s) in their play.

As a betting man,myself i feel Bobby will rebound,to what degree is unknown.I can only wish him good luck because he is a tiger.

Zappi

[DeanT]

That is tough news, Zappi. At that bankroll level and 75/25 betting allocation, I assume pool seeking was his bailiwick. He obviously has a strategy for playing those low hit rate bets that has served him well over the years. Trying to do that with 10% of his original bankroll will certainly take some soul searching, imo.

[Dave Schwartz]

1. Determine if this is a "normal and reasonable" negative event.
How one does this could perhaps best be answered by a "statistical guy" (a group of which I am not a card-carrying member).

2. If it is not "normal and reasonable," then one must ask, "What has changed?"

There are only two possibilities:


The game has changed.
The analysis has changed.


There are no more choices.

Note: The sooner your friend determines if #1 is likely to be applicable the better.

Hope this helps.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[classhandicapper]

15 years of success is an extremely long time - even for someone playing a lot of low probability exotics. I would have to say he's going to turn it around eventually.

If you told me he was successful for a handful of years playing pick 4s, 6s, and superfectas, triples etc... I would say it's not totally impossible he was just fortunate for an extended period of time and it finally caught up with him. But 15 years is too long unless there were a handful of extremely large tickets mixed in.

The reason I say this is that I know someone that was net winner playing pick 6s and other exotics over a 5-6 year period because he hit a few really big ones. However, there was little doubt in my mind at the time that if he continued playing he was going to go broke.

When you are playing extreme exotics, any good or bad fortune can magnify the reality of where you really are as a player by an extreme amount. The same is not true of win betting etc...

[jfdinneen]

1. Determine if this is a "normal and reasonable" negative event...

Dave / Zappi,


You can check the estimated strike rate based on an actual longest losing run as follows (Excel formula):
=IF(efActualLongestLosingRun<>"",SUM(1,-POWER(EXP(1),-LN(1000)/efActualLongestLosingRun)),"")

For example, if efActualLongestLosingRun = 35, then calcExpectedStrikeRate = 18%

I hope this helps provide some additional insight into the current problem.


Best wishes,


John

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Thanks for the reply Dave.IMO the game is changing constantly as the effect of money has a giant influence in all aspects of playing the game for profit and the horsemen (and ladies) attempting to garner an income while expenses rise on a regular basis.

As for Bobby i believe he has changed to keep pace with the game and his handicapping techniques are diversified enough to keep above the numbers crunchers that devalue the odds.

This current phase really can be a freak negative sequence that really can't be explained in any fine terms zappi

[the_fat_man]

Zippi (zappy, zahooeee)


Let's assume you're on the up and up.

Consider the following cases:

1) Tony Gwynn, the perennial .300 hitter retires after close to 20 years cause he just couldn't hit .300 any longer.

Plausible? Yes

2) Hubie Brown, the noted basketball coach and analyst, suddenly loses all his skills when it comes to the X's and O's of basketball.
(Sort of like a PHD in a given field suddenly reduced to the skill level of an undergrad).

Plausible? Nope



Not buying it, Zippi

[JPinMaryland]

it would be plausible in the case of HUbie Brown if for some reason he had a mental problem. Maybe suddenly becoming a diabetic say or maybe having bad headaches. Psychological problems e..g a bad home life could also affect it.

So not implausible...But perhaps I am missing your pt here??

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Fat Man you have a right to your opinion.I'm just stating fact of a man who has stood the test of time battling a tough game with a real biting take out.My hat's off to Bobby for his long term success up to this point. Zappi

[the_fat_man]

it would be plausible in the case of HUbie Brown if for some reason he had a mental problem. Maybe suddenly becoming a diabetic say or maybe having bad headaches. Psychological problems e..g a bad home life could also affect it.

So not implausible...But perhaps I am missing your pt here??

Touche

So either BOBBY has Alzheimer's or ...........:D:D


Man, if I had $300,000

I'd retire to (northeastern) Brasil (and bang exotic women)

rather than stick around and lose $275,000

playing exotics.


I'm definitely buying this, Zipppy

[timtam]

Would it be better for this guy to go thru a stretch where he played

conservatively and played only show bets or simple doubles or exactas

until he turned the corner won and regained his confidence???

[Jeff P]

These past ten weeks since the Belmont Park opening has been by far the worst of the worst and has really destroyed his once confident operating bankroll.
Here's a guy who's successful for 15+ years and then suddenly the wheels come off - and inside of 10 weeks he's gone from 300k to 25k. To me, this represents a nightmare scenario. Myself, I've been at it 3+ years now... 4 winning months in 03 from the 6 that I played... 9 winning months in 04... 10 winning months in 05... and so far 5 winning months during the first half of 06. I share those figures not to brag but to paint a (hopefully by now) realistic picture of my own expectations - which happen to be somewhere in the neighborhood of winning three months out of each four.

In my three years I've yet to have back to back losing months... But I'm not so naive as to think for one second that it won't or can't happen to me. From a statistical standpoint, a 10 week slide might really be nothing more than a blip - a simple case of back to back losing months.

My own plan, my own strategy for minimizing the effects of this are centered around avoiding flat betting (and progressive betting) entirely. Instead the amount of each play is a percentage of bankroll. How well I'll be able to make that work (if I play long enough I'm convinced that a 10 week slide WILL eventually happen to me) is going to depend on the amount of discipline I can muster when it does happen.

Because losing almost the entire bank after many hard fought years of success is something I never want to experience firsthand, Zappi, can I ask a few questions about your friend?

How does your friend handicap?

IOW, when he handicaps, is the primary tool he uses traditional past performances such as the DRF? If so, are his wagering decisions based on personal and/or intuitive judgements?

Does he use something else - like the Sheets?

Does he use software?

Is he a mechanical player - one who for example follows a set of rules that he created for himself? If so, what factors does he consider important?

Does his methodology change at all during slides such as this?

Was NYRA/BEL the only circuit your friend was playing during this slide? Or did he spread the risk around by playing other circuits?

During this downward spiral, as the bankroll was shrinking, did your friend periodically reduce the amount being played per race so as to keep things in proportion to the amount of current bankroll available?

Or did he keep betting the same amount?

Or worse... did he use any form of progressive betting?

Thanks in advance for any info you'd care to share.

--jp

.

[garyoz]

It is possible to stay on tilt for along time--certainly long enough to blow through a fortune. Could be some psychological factors at play (perhaps unconscious--not to get into psyco-babble), or burn out.

I've seen bond traders lose it after more than a decade of running a profitable desk. Usually they just lose their stomach for risk--the thrill is gone. Or they get tired of having their self esteem and income tied to a number on the computer screen that they really have no control over.

I've also seen traders blow-up, take a year off, and come back to have great success.

Sounds like a cliche, but I think the key is keeping a competitive instinct while detesting losing. I think that drive and motivation have a lot to do with staying in the zone.

Too easy to point at the process or the data when it is the individual pulling the trigger.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Hey Jeff P in response to some of your inquiries about Bobby's play.He is a comprehensive player in that he relies on not just one approach for success.He made real big money in the past using sheets but gradually distanced his play in the past 7 or 8 years.

This man has the "ability" if you will call it that to size up a race with a weak favorite and construct a wagering situation that makes good profit and at times absolutely clobbers a race including the inta race exotics associated with the bet.

Like i stated in earlier posts i do not ask many questions of a mans play and as a matter of fact i am not a real exotic player myself.Bobby is just one of the ones that can master a profitable exotic ticket and be well rewarded when all comes into play.

As for the people that question the losing amount.(yes it is startling to most), but wagering about $10 to $15 grand in a day as an average can be translated into this significant loss in a almost three month period of time when the wheels fall off the cart.

Bobby has made a real significant income for the past 15 or so years,also bumped up with max rebates in line with his high daily handle,included in these serious winnings are windfall massive scores in the pick6's etc,but IMO the distinction of his play is also the steady accumulation of profits when a persistant winning streak comes around,and very few can maximize the rare winning runs like Bobby did.

Thanks to all that replied.i don't want to go over board with this topic.

My point is to understand that when a proven tough parimutuel money earner survives and earns as Bobby has for such a long period of time it is really a shock for myself to see how unbelievable a bad streak he has fallen into.

Zappi

[the_fat_man]

Back in the last '80's, at the start of what was to be a period of fulltime play, I experienced what can be considered a prolonged losing streak.

I don't have the exact figures but I recollect something like 16 in a row, 2nd place finishes (of those picks finishing in the money).

I naively was playing a win progression at the time and this streak just about sent me back to (conventional) work.

Now, this losing streak was a bit different than that attributed to BOBBY:

Even though I didn't cash WIN
my average odds were around 4:1 and I certainly would've shown a good profit PLACE betting. And though my horses weren't winning, they certainly were running ---a good half of those 2nd place finishers lost in photos.
So, my capping was on the money, I just wasn't lucky.

Now, this streak was more than made up for by that once or twice a month 'typically good' day when I'd hit 3-4-5 in a row.

In light of the above, I find it hard to believe that someone with 15+ years success at the game would all of a sudden fall off a cliff. He can stumble and fall over a rock but not completely off a cliff.

[JPinMaryland]

Touche

So either BOBBY has Alzheimer's or ...........:D:D




Or...there's a glitch in his program. Or the PPs he's using have changed in their methodology..Or the track surface has changed....Or there's a problem with the timer at this track..

Maybe he has problems on the side? Maybe he owes someone money? Maybe there's another women? Maybe he's in trouble...

Then again maybe it's run of bad luck. After all from the amount of money he's betting and the nature of the exotics; perhaps he has had similar bad runs in the past but Zappi didnt know about them...

[the_fat_man]

Or...there's a glitch in his program. Or the PPs he's using have changed in their methodology..Or the track surface has changed....Or there's a problem with the timer at this track..

Maybe he has problems on the side? Maybe he owes someone money? Maybe there's another women? Maybe he's in trouble...

Then again maybe it's run of bad luck. After all from the amount of money he's betting and the nature of the exotics; perhaps he has had similar bad runs in the past but Zappi didnt know about them...

Or maybe he HAS or rather HAD the BIGGEST ASS
this side of mine. :D

In other words, HE'S BEEN ASS LUCKY all these years.


Whatever the case, I don't buy it. Zippi is fishing for something.

[MichaelNunamaker]

Hi Zappi,

How is your friend wagering? If he has been increasing the size of his wagers as his bankroll shrinks, I would think that's the problem.

Mike Nunamaker

[MichaelNunamaker]

Hi the_fat_man,

You wrote "I don't buy it."

This kind of thing happens all the time. In stock and bond circles, they have a term for this. It is called "blowing up" and it is quite common there as well.

Indeed, IMHO, any professional gambler should have an exit strategy. At some point in the future, what worked before might not work any longer. It is prudent to plan ahead to recognize that and know when to stop _before_ destroying one's entire net worth.

A great example of someone who knew when to exit was Benter of Hong Kong fame. It is my understanding he got out before suffering a single losing year.


Mike Nunamaker

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Hey fatso you must be a real pessimistic person by nature, which is fine,once again you are entitled to your opinion.I did not initiate this post for sympathy or criticism i just wanted to throw this situation at the vast knowledgeable players on this fine site to see if they have had similar or know others who have had similar breakdowns in their serious play.

I really don't see any humor in your message of fishing for something,maybe your just a bs artist yourself and you think every body else follows suit.anyway it's not my style to mouth off on a site i'm a face to face type of man that's the way i seeit.

thanks for all the replies. i will let you know the future of Bobby if you're interested. zappi

[sjk]

If anyone is even in the ballpark of having a losing year I would think that the losing streaks would be absolutely fearsome. I haven't seen any real changes in playing North American dirt racing over the last 10 years so if someone has a good process in the past it seems to me that it should hold up.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Mike to answer your question about his betting.In all the years of his success his chasing losses has been minimal,he would close out a losing day with the confidence that tomorrow the edges would still be there.It's worked for a long time.

This streak is a real abnormality to the highest degree.

[Dave Schwartz]

Zappi,

If I may I ask you a question, please...

What is your purpose for this discussion?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Dave, my purpose was to listen to opinions from fellow members on the losing streak.

[MichaelNunamaker]

Hi Zappi,

So, if he is not increasing wager size, how many wagers has the losing streak consisted of? Hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands?

Also, do you have any idea what kind of ROI he had when he was profitable, and what kind of ROI he has so far this year?

Mike Nunamaker

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Sorry Mike i would have no acess to the info you requested.Like i stated in an earlier post i as a rule don't ask questions about a a mans wagering activity.For most at his betting threshold it tends to be a personal matter.

I occasionally ask bobby about his opinion on what i perceive as a vulnerable race favorite (i think this is his greatest strength).

Your info Mike is right on the money to establish how things could have developed in such a rapid fashion.AS a side bar if Bobby went win less in pick 6's for the Belmont meeting @$2 or $ 3 grand each play can add quickly to the loss ledger.I'm really just grasping at straws to attempt to analyze his streak.

[the_fat_man]

Hey fatso you must be a real pessimistic person by nature, which is fine,once again you are entitled to your opinion.I did not initiate this post for sympathy or criticism i just wanted to throw this situation at the vast knowledgeable players on this fine site to see if they have had similar or know others who have had similar breakdowns in their serious play.

I really don't see any humor in your message of fishing for something,maybe your just a bs artist yourself and you think every body else follows suit.anyway it's not my style to mouth off on a site i'm a face to face type of man that's the way i seeit.

thanks for all the replies. i will let you know the future of Bobby if you're interested. zappi

Well ZIPPY, you blew it!

after some good natured razzing

I was gonna be a good guy and INTRODUCE YOU to CHRISTIE BRINKLEY

That's right, ZIPPY, THE Christie Brinkley

54, married 4 times, etc.

about to dump Peter Cook who decided he needed some fresh gravy and got down with the 18 year old


But, since you're not being nice to me, it won't happen.:lol:


What are the odds that a lazy, sweaty, fat dude knows Christie?

about the same as BOBBY winning at the track for the past 15 years

SLIM (not me) and NONE (as in NO date for you!!)


:D


You know what, rather than sit around here in my underwear sweating profusely

I'm gonna give OLD CHristie a call
and take her out myself.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Fat man you are alright with a great sense of humor.I think my emotions got the best of me in my earlier remark to you.and i sincerely apologize .you must be a blast to have a drink with.

[JustRalph]

somebody close this Damn Thread! I have been on a losing streak since it appeared!!!!!!!!!!!

[Valuist]

I have a theory which I call the "Konerko Theory", named after White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko. IMO, baseball and horse race betting have several parallels, namely that they involve performing on a near daily basis which is a different mindset than having to perform once a week. Also, one can fail more than 2/3 of the time and still be successful.

Konerko has been pretty consistent in his career, hitting around .280 to .300 every year with 30-40 HRs. Except for 2003. He got off to a terrible start. April was horrific. May was almost as bad. By June, it had gotten into his head. To get to his normal numbers, he'd have to have a monster second half. Now he started overcompensating. Changing his stance. Taking extra batting practice. By August it was apparent the monster second half was never going to happen. Only one thing could happen positive: 2003 was going to eventually end. Once 2004 came, the slate was clean and he returned to his pre-2003 levels. Since then, there has been no sign of returning to the dismal 2003 season.

The moral of the story? If a prolonged losing streak gets into your head, it will affect how you perform. The best thing to do is take an extended break and come back with a clean slate.

[JustRalph]

I have a theory which I call the "Konerko Theory", named after White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko.

I am right in the middle of one named after Bill Buckner......... I let a bunch slip through my hands last week...............and maybe right between my legs and down the first base line.............. :lol:

[Valuist]

:lol:

[dav4463]

You just have to bet smart if the money is dwindling or quit for a while. I learned that in college when I went to the track with a friend and we had $30 apiece and cooler of sandwiches for the ride home. We both promptly lost our $30 and went to the car to find that our cooler was open and the sandwiches spoiled. The gas tank was almost empty and the student loan money was still about a week away! We survived and learned a valuable lesson living off change we found around the apartment and in our cars for the next week! I learned that you should not bet when you are way too worried about losing because you need the money for food.