Weakening Of The Breed

[LaughAndBeMerry]

From an article that appeared in a California newspaper this weekend. A follow-up to the thread on Barbaro.





"...What sells is speed. But theoretically speed can come at the expense of soundness because of the pressure it puts on limbs, said Ric Waldman, stallion and breeding consultant for Overbrook Farm in Kentucky.

CHRB Chairman Richard Shapiro considers it a big part of the issue, with no clear answers:

“Is the breed becoming finer because of in-breeding?” Shapiro asked. “When we keep breeding these horses are we breeding a flaw into them that they become more fragile?”

Waldman believes the problem probably will get worse before it gets better and won't reverse itself for decades. That's because the problem is 50-60 years in the making: breeding unsound qualities into the population over and over, many from the same speedy sire.

“What's hard to argue against is that there is breeding unsoundnesses back into the breed,” Waldman said. “It has to be a contributing factor to unsoundness in the present generation of horses...."


For entire article see

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/20060716-9999-1s16injuries.html

[kenwoodallpromos]

First you have to eminate the outside factors that may influence tim, and "unsoundness".
The tracing industry does not put out statistics on deaths, breakdowns, injuries, or illnesses among racers or ex-racers. SO it is all guesswork.
Changes in the racetracks themselves are not studies as long-term trends for the most part.
There is a reason besides the unsoundness of the breed that caused mot turf record to be set at just 1 track- Santa Anita; there is a reason why most of the records for today's common distances were set at many tracks beginning about the 1990's; There is a reason why the Preakness began being run fast in 1971 forward; there is a reason why only turfers are given the winter off, and then only in some circuits; and I just read an article that said dirt racetracks in the USA were not watered until the 1930's.
I do not believe that "inbreeding" answers many of those situations.

[Steve 'StatMan']

... and I just read an article that said dirt racetracks in the USA were not watered until the 1930's.

Much of those early years, horses would have been needed to pull the water truck. Current water tanks are bigger that the Budweiser Wagon with the 8 Clydesdales. Would have been a huge task and take a lot of big work-horses. Very expensive. Might have needed more than 1 team of horses as well, though race cards often had fewer than 9 races. Still, I'm thinking these were some reasons they wouldn't have watered dirt courses.

Sorry - a bit off topic on soundness.

[LaughAndBeMerry]

[QUOTE=LaughAndBeMerry] "...What sells is speed. But theoretically speed can come at the expense of soundness because of the pressure it puts on limbs, said Ric Waldman, stallion and breeding consultant for Overbrook Farm in Kentucky.

Pot calling the kettle black. Ric Waldman is stallion manager for Storm Cat who managed but 8 starts in 3 years before generating hundreds of milllions in stud fees.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I agree certain compromises have been made to try and increase speed within the breed- and that things have been done to keep the horses running with soreness and to decrease pain and lung bleeding.
As I have said before, I would like to hear from Dave the Par Man as to if he thinks there has been a trend over the years.
But since 50-60 years ago, or whatever time period you want to look at, I have my doubts how much of the increased speed and at least percieved unsoundness is due to breeding.
I think somehow steady increases in total tracks, races, and number of horses has much to do with anecdotes as to some major issues.
http://horseracing.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ&sdn=horseracing&zu=http%3A%2F%2Fthoroughbredchampions.com%2Flibrar y%2Fworldrec.htm
I guess both Hol and SA have many (shorter) records.

[JPinMaryland]

There is a reason besides the unsoundness of the breed that caused mot turf record to be set at just 1 track- Santa Anita; there is a reason why most of the records for today's common distances were set at many tracks beginning about the 1990's; There is a reason why the Preakness began being run fast in 1971 forward; there is a reason why only turfers are given the winter off, and then only in some circuits; and I just read an article that said dirt racetracks in the USA were not watered until the 1930's....


So what are/is the reaons?

[PaceAdvantage]

“Is the breed becoming finer because of in-breeding?” Shapiro asked. “When we keep breeding these horses are we breeding a flaw into them that they become more fragile?”

This question was being asked 20 years ago, when I first started to get into this game. When will we finally have the answer?

[LaughAndBeMerry]

This question was being asked 20 years ago, when I first started to get into this game. When will we finally have the answer?

I'm convinced they know the answer. His question was rhetorical. Breeders I've spoken to are all aware of it but as they've said to me "if I don't bring a 'commercially acceptable' yearling to the sale I go home empty handed." As I said in a previous thread, it's why there's no home for those hard-knocking 6 & 7 year old multiple graded turf horses when they go off to stud.

[linrom1]

The only reason why the problem with horse soundness will not go away is because the sport does not operate in a free market, economic environment. The whole breeding industry is slated towards producing fast horses for a select group of moneyed individuals who are not motivated by economics but rather by egonamics. These individuals are willing to spent millions on dubiously sound horses in an effort to find one that is exceptional. Since the object is to spend all the money before the reaper pays these owners a visit, they’ll buy anything that some bloodstock agent will recommend without much afterthought. The owners like Lewises, and Tabors and are far from being racing saviors. In fact, they contribute to its demise. The solution is to get rid of all the big moneyed owners who are not even motivated to enter their charges in Stake races like the Million dollar Virginia Derby, because they can care less about the purse money

[kenwoodallpromos]

So what are/is the reaons?
The short answers are, in addition to the demand for larger numners of horses to compete, the big breeding money is in breeding to get a 2 year old that can run a very fast 1f at action, lately.
Many Thoroughbred breeders are breeding for quarterhorses, with encouragement from the tracks, handicappers, and ex-quarterhorse trainers.
Just look at why certain racers are getting the big bucks for stud- the stud fees are so high, the sooner a horse goes to stud the more money is made.

[ELA]

Great thread. This has been debated time and time again for who knows how long a period of time. Personally, I think the problem is multifaceted and has its origins in numerous places.

First, I think, as some have said, is the economics of the industry. The breeders, pinhookers, buyers, etc. have created an industry where the "big money" is in the 2yo game -- the 2yo in training sales. We see the kind of horses who sell for big money, and that's where the demand is. Colts and fillies who are speed, speed, speed, are pushed to and get ready early, breeze like machines, etc. -- and that's the kind of horse breeders are breeding for and buyers and pinhookers are looking for. These horses have so much pressure and stress put on them early and they don't have the pedigrees to go long. They are pushed and pushed and pushed.

Second, as 3yo's, we have seen plenty of quality animals who just can't get the distance. They are pushed as well.

Third, the "gene pool" as been diluted. Stallions are a dime a dozen and the animal that we see before us today is not the same animal we saw 20 and 30 years ago (forget about 40 years ago and more). The quality of the breed is just not what it once was. I think today's animal is more "fragile" due to what has happened to the gene pool.

Fourth, technology, medicine, science, etc. also has ramifications. Short term it allows the horses to go on, but the long term damage that is done is irreversible. These horses have shorter careers than they once had. Training and mindset has caused part of this as well.

Horses that are big, strong, bred to go long, aren't ready early, show they need more time, etc. do not sell as well. The market is not demanding those types of horses, thus the breeders are not breeding those types of horses -- at least not nearly as much as before.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of people interested in having a 3yo peak after June.

Bloodstock agent and breeding/pedigree expert Robert Fox has spoke about this for many years.

Eric

[JPinMaryland]

kenwood: I was somewhat suprised by your response above. It seemed that you were saying that it was something other than breeding (i.e. the reasons for all those thing mentioned) but when you came back to it you are suggesting breeding for precocious speed. Or perhaps you are suggesting the economics of the game? as opposed to breeding.

But that seems like the same thing, isnt it? Anyhow good thread. Still looking for answers here. Thx.

[Bruddah]

If you aren't concerned with the fastest time (best time) in a horse race, what are you concerned with, STYLE POINTS?? SPEED (final times) are why races of any kind are run. Even a 2 mile marathon is awarded to the horse which runs the fastest. It's ludicrous to think that this part of the equation (SPEED) will ever be, or should be eliminated in breeding.

What should be controlled is running 2 year olds until late in the fall of their 2 yo year. Mid November should be the earliest any of them try to break their Maidens. Do you think it is only happen stance that no BC 2 yo champion has ever been able to win the KY Derby? The motive of $$ prompts the running of the babies before they are mature enough to race. (JMHO)

If you want to confront the issues of "soundness" let the young horses mature. Let their knees close.

[Jeff P]

Anyone else besides me think that allowing steroids to be administered to them compounds the problem?

-jp

.

[KingChas]

This question was being asked 20 years ago, when I first started to get into this game. When will we finally have the answer?

My mom and dad never went to a horse race in their life. :confused:
Must be an ancestor- :D Ask Cigar he was supposed to be a turf horse. :eek:

[KingChas]

Being serious,the answer is simple.Early speed (age wise 2) brings greater riches to the investors more quickly.The American way is not one for patience.We want it now.The 2 year old stakes automatically set you up for breeding riches quickly.How many 2 year olds retired undefeated after injuries.Their resume for breeding "Precocious never lost ".
Now can we start a thread "Whatever happened to DW... :eek: ..............? :D

[kenwoodallpromos]

kenwood: I was somewhat suprised by your response above. It seemed that you were saying that it was something other than breeding (i.e. the reasons for all those thing mentioned) but when you came back to it you are suggesting breeding for precocious speed. Or perhaps you are suggesting the economics of the game? as opposed to breeding.

But that seems like the same thing, isnt it? Anyhow good thread. Still looking for answers here. Thx.

Training for early speed!
Today at Del Mar, the average 5f dirt workout time among 41 horses was 1:00 and change; 4f under 49:00, 3f just over 36:00. There is no reason the track needs to be running that fast, especially on a non-racing day.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If you aren't concerned with the fastest time (best time) in a horse race, what are you concerned with, STYLE POINTS?? SPEED (final times) are why races of any kind are run. Even a 2 mile marathon is awarded to the horse which runs the fastest. It's ludicrous to think that this part of the equation (SPEED) will ever be, or should be eliminated in breeding.

What should be controlled is running 2 year olds until late in the fall of their 2 yo year. Mid November should be the earliest any of them try to break their Maidens. Do you think it is only happen stance that no BC 2 yo champion has ever been able to win the KY Derby? The motive of $$ prompts the running of the babies before they are mature enough to race. (JMHO)

If you want to confront the issues of "soundness" let the young horses mature. Let their knees close.
____________
"http://www.jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp?section=11"

Here is the link to the Jockey Club stats for 2 yr old- over the last couple of decades, less starts per 2 yr old, lower % or races when compared to all races, big increase in purses. As the article said, more injuries younger.
Remember, Turfway's breakdowns went from 24 to 3 without outbreeding, without eliminating 2 yr old racing, without outlawing pain medication. The only change was the track being softer and slower.

[LaughAndBeMerry]

From the Blood Horse:

A Forestry colt sold for $1.2-million on Monday to lead a strong first session of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July select yearling sale at the Newtown Paddocks in Lexington....the Forestry colt is out of the Unbridled's Song mare Alizea's Song, an UNRACED (my emphasis) full sister to Grade 1 winner and young Central Kentucky sire Songandaprayer... A Pulpit colt sold for $760,000 on Tuesday afternoon to lead the second session of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July select yearling sale at the Newtown Paddocks in Lexington. The colt is the second most expensive purchase in the sale...The colt is the first foal out of the UNRACED Arch mare Mayhavebeentheone, a half sister to Grade 3 winner and Central Kentucky sire Wiseman's Ferry....

The sales topper at a paltry $1.2 mill is by a sire that raced 2 years and made 11 starts, out of an unraced dam that's a half to a horse that was retired during the summer of his 3YO season. This second colt is a beaut too. By a horse that broke down in his 6th lifetime start, out of a mare that wasn't sound enough to ever make it to the races. $760,000, huh?

Gee I can't imagine why the best of the U.S. horses manage about 10 starts in 2 years before heading off to stud?

[kenwoodallpromos]

From the Blood Horse:

A Forestry colt sold for $1.2-million on Monday to lead a strong first session of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July select yearling sale at the Newtown Paddocks in Lexington....the Forestry colt is out of the Unbridled's Song mare Alizea's Song, an UNRACED (my emphasis) full sister to Grade 1 winner and young Central Kentucky sire Songandaprayer... A Pulpit colt sold for $760,000 on Tuesday afternoon to lead the second session of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July select yearling sale at the Newtown Paddocks in Lexington. The colt is the second most expensive purchase in the sale...The colt is the first foal out of the UNRACED Arch mare Mayhavebeentheone, a half sister to Grade 3 winner and Central Kentucky sire Wiseman's Ferry....

The sales topper at a paltry $1.2 mill is by a sire that raced 2 years and made 11 starts, out of an unraced dam that's a half to a horse that was retired during the summer of his 3YO season. This second colt is a beaut too. By a horse that broke down in his 6th lifetime start, out of a mare that wasn't sound enough to ever make it to the races. $760,000, huh?

Gee I can't imagine why the best of the U.S. horses manage about 10 starts in 2 years before heading off to stud?

__________________________

2-YEAR-OLD SALES RESULTS BY YEAR-Jockey Club


NUMBER
SOLD GROSS
SALES AVG.******
PRICE (PER CENT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2005 3,137 $190,888,903 $60,851 (+4.5)
2004 3,012 $175,347,558 $58,216 (+27.4)
2003 3,058 $139,729,164 $45,693 (-4.2)
2002 2,726 $130,015,650 $47,695 (+2.4)
2001 2,730 $127,133,855 $46,569 (-8.5)
2000 3,041 $154,849,237 $50,920 (-2.8)
1999 2,988 $156,600,773 $52,410 (+18.1)
1998 3,113 $138,127,125 $44,371 (+2.2)
1997 2,944 $127,827,960 $43,420 (+8.9)
1996 2,942 $117,249,806 $39,854 (+22.8)
1995 2,961 $96,063,995 $32,443 (+25.0)
1994 2,959 $76,816,549 $25,960 (+26.4)
1993 2,951 $60,594,975 $20,534 (+8.0)
______
NOTE- this corresponds to the time period when mant reacoeds at many tracks were being broken, and early and overall speed numbers were gaining prominence.
There has been a number of trainers who promote "the Sheets" and other speed figure makers.
The 90's is also when Lukas and Baffert, ex-quarterhorse racing trainers, won the Ky Derby.
I do not know when the tracks that Magna owns like SA, LS, PIM, PM, GGF, GP began showing the speed they do now, but I know they were speedy like that in the late 1990's.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Training for early speed!
Today at Del Mar, the average 5f dirt workout time among 41 horses was 1:00 and change; 4f under 49:00, 3f just over 36:00. There is no reason the track needs to be running that fast, especially on a non-racing day.
_______
This link lists many of Secretariat's workouts; Today 7-19-06 at Del Mar the official averags 5f dirt workout of 40 horses was 1:00:58!
Isn't is nice to know there are almost 20 new Secretariats working out at DM?!
http://www.secondrunning.com/secretariat.htm

[JPinMaryland]

is the same phenomenon going on all over the world? In terms of numbers of starts and breakdowns? If not, then it might be hard to claim that there is a problem with the breed, rather the problem may have more to do with american training methods, tracks, etc. Does anyone have stats or anecdotes from AUS, JAP, UK, So. Amer. etc?

[alydar44]

is the same phenomenon going on all over the world? In terms of numbers of starts and breakdowns? If not, then it might be hard to claim that there is a problem with the breed, rather the problem may have more to do with american training methods, tracks, etc. Does anyone have stats or anecdotes from AUS, JAP, UK, So. Amer. etc?

I don't know the numbers but since most of the racing is predominantly on the turf overseas, their breakdown rate has got to be lower.

[Buckeye]

working out is great. Secretariat did his talking on race day. Sure, he lost to Angle Light and Prove Out, but in the grand scheme of things, it's about who beats who-- where and when, not how fast they go. A slow beating is still a beating.

Maybe Einstein was correct when he said time is relative? I think maybe he was, relative to the beating. The beating comes first though.

[Buckeye]

The Breed is weakening in what sense? Fewer starts per time period per horse? That's not my concern although obviously it's true. My concern is making money today, not yesterday or in 1973. Suck it up if you think the end is near and either make money today or not. If you think it's possible to go back in time more power to you.

[RXB]

If you aren't concerned with the fastest time (best time) in a horse race, what are you concerned with, STYLE POINTS?? SPEED (final times) are why races of any kind are run. Even a 2 mile marathon is awarded to the horse which runs the fastest. It's ludicrous to think that this part of the equation (SPEED) will ever be, or should be eliminated in breeding.


The suggestion is not to eliminate speed. The suggestion is to end the utter infatuation with speed and precociousness that is contributing significantly to the infirmity of contemporary thoroughbreds.

[LaughAndBeMerry]

My concern is making money today, not yesterday or in 1973. Suck it up if you think the end is near and either make money today or not. If you think it's possible to go back in time more power to you.

Here's an equation for you:


Today's Breeding Practices = Unsound Horses
Unsound Horses = Fewer Starts Per Horse
Fewer Starts Per Horse = Fewer Horses Per Race
Fewer Horses Per Race = Lower Average Odds Per Entrant
Lower Average Odds Per Entrant = Less Overall Value In Average Race

therefore

Today's Breeding Practices = Less Overall Value in Average Race

I'd like someone to tell me in all honesty they making a living betting the five horse fields in N. California or the six horse stakes races at HOL.

[KingChas]

I don't know the numbers but since most of the racing is predominantly on the turf overseas, their breakdown rate has got to be lower.

Very rare to see a horse overseas wear blinkers.The need for early speed is just not there. ;)

[kenwoodallpromos]

The suggestion is not to eliminate speed. The suggestion is to end the utter infatuation with speed and precociousness that is contributing significantly to the infirmity of contemporary thoroughbreds.
__________
I have no problem with eliminating any emphasis on 1f , 2f, or other early speed. The preference for shorter and shorter races just feeds into the mentality that early speed is all that matters. The only thing missinfgfrom the "thoroughbred" tracks is timing of all runners; other than that in short "thoroughbred races", I see no difference between them and the racing presented at "quarterhorse" tracks.
As far as the final speed of races at longer distance, I have never heard of any bettor recieve a bigger payoff or any purse being larger because of the winner running a bertain time- I do not think there even any bonus for breaking a track record! Between that an only the winner being timed, who cares?
Anyone have the numbers to compare pool sizes of similar type racing at Hol or SA, and TP?

[ELA]

Today on the AtTheRacesAndBeyond show (Sirius) there was a major discussion about the polytrack, which of course developed into a discussion about breeding, training, horses being more fragile, etc.

It was a very good show. Anyway, there are some great points here on this thread -- and everyone should have phoned in to the show to share their opinions. There are some great "solutions" here as well, and I use that word loosely as I am not quite sure they are truly solutions. The polytrack, not pushing 2yo's, etc. -- all of these things -- while they may be solutions, they are not truly addressing the origin or the problem itself.

Until the breeding industry, the economics of the sales industry (yearlings, 2yo's in training, etc.) and the demands of the buyers and marketplace change -- these are the types of horses that the marketplace will produce.

Eric

[kenwoodallpromos]

1 answer is not enough.
if there are changes to be made, I think it has to be to give some longshot also-rans more of a cahnce to win. Many races today are written for claimers so the qualification is not having won for a certain length of time.
My past suggestion is a turf route race for NW1L or NW2L and never having won on the turf.
My other suggested race condition for claimers is scoring a certain number or less DRF speed rating in the last 3 (or 6) months. IMHO too many entrants get into a race with 1 or 2 ITM's or a win that is a very fast race or a much higher speed # than other entrants. I think that makes for too many longshots being dismissed, and too high % of the pools going to a horse for 1 or 2 good races.

[Bruddah]

The first basic rule of economics applies. Supply and demand drives the market place and its' products. It doesn't take a Wharton MBA to figure out the driving force behind the weakening of the Breed. While it may not have been the intended result, it's the epitomy of reaping what you have sown.

Einsten said it another way. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

[JPinMaryland]

Einsten said it another way. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

I believe that was Newton and not Einstein.

[ELA]

1 answer is not enough.
if there are changes to be made, I think it has to be to give some longshot also-rans more of a cahnce to win. Many races today are written for claimers so the qualification is not having won for a certain length of time.
My past suggestion is a turf route race for NW1L or NW2L and never having won on the turf.
My other suggested race condition for claimers is scoring a certain number or less DRF speed rating in the last 3 (or 6) months. IMHO too many entrants get into a race with 1 or 2 ITM's or a win that is a very fast race or a much higher speed # than other entrants. I think that makes for too many longshots being dismissed, and too high % of the pools going to a horse for 1 or 2 good races.

I agree, 1 answer is not enough. That is why I portrayed the "problem" or as we should call it the "series of problems" as global, multifaceted, etc.

Everyone -- for the most part, forget about the "unfathomable" money, the few, the minority, etc. -- is looking for ROI. Economics are a driving factor in this business. The answers we are seeing today are myopic solutions -- the polytrack (which I think is a good thing). Offering more, different, etc. conditions, and changing the condition book is fine. I agree. However, it's another band-aid.

All of these solutions are good, they are needed -- but perhaps so is a shift in the industry.

Eric

[JPinMaryland]

what about quarter horses? Is the same phenomenon happening in that industry? GIven the emphasis on speed.

[kenwoodallpromos]

what about quarter horses? Is the same phenomenon happening in that industry? GIven the emphasis on speed.
Just from Googling it is tough to get a picture, but some rates shown vary from track to track, but are similar to the longer TBred races. I expect them to be smaller because they run only on the straightaway and the distance running full speed is not as great. Even unavoidable breakdowns are more likely on turns because the weather has more of an impact on a steeper turn, and that is where more of the changing paths are done.
If a Tbred running quarterhorse distances has a leg problem it would still require the same amount of time not running at speed to heal, remold, or recover.