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View Full Version : Who can beat Lost in the Fog..

horse1
07-14-2006, 10:23 AM
he is deep into a good form cycle, he carries high weight, he won last out,
he has a win on the track, he is the current sprint champion.

is he a single on my pick 4 ??
OTM Al
07-14-2006, 11:13 AM
This will be a pretty stiff challenge for him. I hope he wins, but I wouldn't single him as opposed to Dubai Escapade and Too Much Bling who look pretty strong in their races. I'm definitely using Gaff in this race for 2 reasons. First, he looked the best in his last race (his first back from a good run in Dubai) and had a terrible trip. That was the one he finished 3rd to Friendly Island. Second, the wiseguys are overlooking him and pointing at Kelly's Landing. One could also see a reversal with Kelly's Landing, so he is a possible use too.
Stevie Belmont
07-14-2006, 11:57 AM
Joey P is in top form and looks real good. I would expect a top effort, and that could very well be good enough for a win. LITF will have to work for this. Great race.
horse1
07-14-2006, 12:24 PM
no doubt this will be a test for the champion, his weight 125 kinda scares me a bit,

but at 6f will it matter much ??
kenwoodallpromos
07-14-2006, 01:45 PM
I do not like his gate position.
bigmack
07-14-2006, 02:32 PM
When you look at this distance @ CRC the post hasn't shown to be a significant factor. Fogs numbers are in the hunt but it's his drive that should make the difference.

Should be a good one.
gotrocks13
07-14-2006, 03:06 PM
Single the Fog. This will be the race that gives him the long overdue respect he deserves.
GaryG
07-14-2006, 04:17 PM
Gaff....all day long.
Valuist
07-14-2006, 04:30 PM
I thought Kelly's Landing ran a better race than LITF in the Aristiades being very wide while LITF didn't have much speed to go w/him early on. Friendly Island is definitely capable of beating him as well. I'm not as sold on Joey P, coming off wins over two 5 horse fields. Of the longshots, I wouldn't totally rule out Gold Storm. His best is very good and he won his comebacker w/something left.
keilan
07-14-2006, 05:52 PM
(A-horses) #7 Friendly Island, #8 Gold Storm, #9 Gaff (blinkers wake this guy up),
#10 Lost in the Fog, #1A Pomeroy (lasix won’t hurt)



(B-horses) #6 Nightmare Affair, #2 Universal Form and #4 Joey P.
could fill the exotics


Wager (tri & super) will likely key BOTH the 6 and 2 horses in the 3rd and 4th spots and everything else around them.

i.e. tri --- 1-7-8-9-10/1-7-8-9-10/2-6
super -- 1-7-8-9-10/1-7-8-9-10/2-6/1-7-8-9-10-4
and----- 1-7-8-9-10/1-7-8-9-10/1-7-8-9-10-4/2-6
kenwoodallpromos
07-14-2006, 06:58 PM
Box Lost In The Fog, Kelley's Landing, and Pomeroy.
LITF is the best even at CRC, but I'm shaky on the post.
bigmack
07-14-2006, 07:04 PM
but I'm shaky on the post.
Where you gettin the skinny on the post that's causing the shakes?
betovernetcapper
07-14-2006, 07:22 PM
The comments in yesterdays charts suggest that there may be an advantage to inside posts or at least a rail position.
You guys remember the Quirin speed points? I just counted and there are 63 of them in this race. This is going to be a very interesting race. :)
GARY Z
07-15-2006, 09:24 AM
there is a definite play in this race,which is all when playing the pick3/4/6
yada yada.

presuming a fast track, and that all early horses are sent, the
race should run at 109 or lower.

that said, lost in the fog becomes a logical play in the w/p
position based upon his finshes in grade I and grade II races,
presuming he can deal with the crc surface and he can run to
about 90% of his back speed #'s.

i'm suspecting that he will be at 9-5 at before the gate opens,
which might be considered an overlay.

for my upset, weigelia/gaff /mr fotis should be played under lif,
with lif in the place poition as an alternative bet.

for pure value, (and a prayer) win bet goes to weigelia
chickenhead
07-15-2006, 12:38 PM
LITF will almost certainly be an underlay here. Friendly Island, Gold Storm, and Gaff would be my upsetters, in that order.
Tom
07-15-2006, 05:48 PM
Who can beat LITF......apparently, EVERYONE! What a dismal race - no factor at any point. Lost in the DUST is more like it. He brought his F game today!
Stick a fork in hiom - he's done. He's lost three races lifetime - 3 of his last 4!
Right on the heels of a 1-9 shot finishing up the track!
kenwoodallpromos
07-15-2006, 07:57 PM
Who can beat LITF......apparently, EVERYONE! What a dismal race - no factor at any point. Lost in the DUST is more like it. He brought his F game today!
Stick a fork in hiom - he's done. He's lost three races lifetime - 3 of his last 4!
Right on the heels of a 1-9 shot finishing up the track!
LITF has never lost a graded stakes and never worse than 2nd when starting from inside the 7 post.
The Hawk
07-15-2006, 09:02 PM
He's also proven he's not all that good without a clear lead. Great horse with a loose lead against a short field, though, much like Bellamy Road. That said, I'd love to own either one of them.
alydar44
07-15-2006, 09:11 PM
LITF has never lost a graded stakes and never worse than 2nd when starting from inside the 7 post.

Isn't the breeders cup a grade stake?
Tee
07-15-2006, 10:06 PM
LITF has never lost a graded stakes and never worse than 2nd when starting from inside the 7 post.

Isn't the breeders cup a grade stake?

The key point in Ken's post was inside the 7 post.

LITF had post 7 in the 2005 Breeders Cup Sprint.
DrugSalvastore
07-15-2006, 11:07 PM
Lost in the Fog could have had any post position today---it wasn't going to matter.

The bum who won this race, I picked him to win a race on this message board at Tampa over the winter---he only managed to run 4th that day.
KingChas
07-15-2006, 11:58 PM
(A-horses)

i.e. tri --- 1-7-8-9-10/1-7-8-9-10/2-6
super -- 1-7-8-9-10/1-7-8-9-10/2-6/1-7-8-9-10-4
and----- 1-7-8-9-10/1-7-8-9-10/1-7-8-9-10-4/2-6

This is why they have the all/all/all button! :lol:
Valuist
07-16-2006, 12:24 AM
new nickname:

Lost is the Fraud
KingChas
07-16-2006, 12:27 AM
Lost is the Fraud

Any donations will be accepted to the pari-mutual pool next race if not at Calder. ;)
Tom
07-16-2006, 11:49 AM
new nickname:

Lost is the Fraud

LAST in the Fog! :lol:
RXB
07-16-2006, 12:02 PM
LITF was a talented individual-- not as talented as some thought, but quite talented nonetheless-- who was a good shipper and very consistent. I give him his due for what he accomplished.

With that said, he's never beaten a good horse under a legitimate pace scenario. The 3YO sprint division last year was weak other than him. He's faced older horses four times and has been beaten soundly in three of those races. And it was entirely predictable, since Gilchrist's horses typically enjoy mostly of their successes quite early in their careers.

If I was his owner/trainer, I'd try to see if he can mile. His pedigree says it's possible, and the way he finishes his sprints when the pace isn't too fast indicates that he might be able to mile.