Baffled at EVD and MNR

[sq764]

Anyone ever play Evangeline on some nights and just wonder how anyone in the world is hitting some of these tris and supers?

Saturday was a little baffling and frustrating watching some of these races..

Race 4 - 15/1 over 36/1 over 20/1

Race 7 - 13/1 over 53/1 over 3/1


Mountaineer tonight, thought I was onto the 4 in the 10th. Had a big double going and the f-ing 3 wins the race at 22/1. Knowing the 3 won, I still would not bet him with anyone else's money..

When you guys run into these types of races, do you even attempt to figure out why the horse won? Or are there some races, in your opinion, that just defy logic?

[bigmack]

You picked two places that will confound time and time again.

If you find it frustrating roll over to Charlestown. If you end up
playing all three in a day hide the cutlery to save yourself from
self infliction.

[Zaf]

I had the #4 also in the finale at MNR, I couldn't believe that was the #3 coming up the inside, what a sack of S**t. :mad:

Z

[sq764]

I had the #4 also in the finale at MNR, I couldn't believe that was the #3 coming up the inside, what a sack of S**t. :mad:

Z
When I saw it was the 3, I knew it was a fitting end to the night.

[bigmack]

I had the #4 also in the finale at MNR, I couldn't believe that was the #3 coming up the inside, what a sack of S**t. :mad:

Come on Z you did Ok @ MNR tonight (for a Canadian)

[WJ47]

Handsome Darby should have been 100/1! I couldn't believe it when I saw him win. I wanted to gouge my eyes out! As soon as I saw him cross the finish line, I clicked off the television. I just couldn't bear to see the prices posted, LOL, or hear anymore of the awful TVG music.

Honestly, there is no rhyme or reason behind some of these night tracks, particuliarly Mountaineer and Evangeline. When I bet a horse and he loses at Belmont, I can usually find a reason for the winner's victory. Usually it was a contentious race or I missed something or sloppy handicapping. But I can never really look back and see why a huge longshot won at Mountaineer. On different boards, I read that some people love to bet these tracks. And some of them do very good, they say!

I'm not a big bettor, but sometimes at night, I feel like a little action. I only dropped $8 at Mountaineer tonight, but I don't think I've cashed a bet there in a year! Tomorrow, I'm going to bet on all the favorites and hopefully one of them will win, so I can see how good it feels to cash a ticket at Mountaineer.

One of these days, when I'm feeling ambitious, I'm going to launch an intensive study of Mountaineer and figure out what the dirty secret is.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Here is what the charts say:
___
Favorites at 1st call: 5, 5, 3(won), 11, 2, 5, 5, 6, 1 (placed), 1 (won). bettors favor the slowpokes in sprints on a sealed backstretch!!LOL!!
___________
2f and last fraction fractional times:

22.4 / 14.3; 22.4 / 13.3; 22.3 / 13.0; 22.2 / 14.1; 22.0 / 20.0 (1 1/2f); 22.3 / 6.4; 22.4 and 48.3 (4f)(race was 1 mile 70); 25 (race was 1 1/16 mile); 22.1 / 12.3; 22.4 / 6.3

Somebody forgot to tell the bettors that they dug up the homestretch on their Sunday (last racecard of the week!)! 22+ seconds on the backstretch, 24-25 on the first 2f on the frontstretch!!LOL!!

[bigmack]

One of these days, when I'm feeling ambitious, I'm going to launch an intensive study of Mountaineer and figure out what the dirty secret is.
WJ47 - That should be an interesting study. I'd love to be a mouse in the corner of that affair.

In any event, a member with the handle MaleetziaPolice in the selections area had Handsome Darby and has an explaination of his choice in the aforementioned thread.

Quick glance at Handsome reveals:
a trainer who is 1 for 36
a jock who is 66 for 778

[JustRalph]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=291316&postcount=12

MNR is rife with larceny by the trainers.

[sq764]

Here is what the charts say:
___
Favorites at 1st call: 5, 5, 3(won), 11, 2, 5, 5, 6, 1 (placed), 1 (won). bettors favor the slowpokes in sprints on a sealed backstretch!!LOL!!
___________
2f and last fraction fractional times:

22.4 / 14.3; 22.4 / 13.3; 22.3 / 13.0; 22.2 / 14.1; 22.0 / 20.0 (1 1/2f); 22.3 / 6.4; 22.4 and 48.3 (4f)(race was 1 mile 70); 25 (race was 1 1/16 mile); 22.1 / 12.3; 22.4 / 6.3

Somebody forgot to tell the bettors that they dug up the homestretch on their Sunday (last racecard of the week!)! 22+ seconds on the backstretch, 24-25 on the first 2f on the frontstretch!!LOL!!
Wow, it was that easy huh LOL

At least I don't feel as frustrated as I was last night. Sometimes you watch baffling horses win and you wonder how you can be so far off..

[GlenninOhio]

At the risk of ruffling some feathers with far more posts (and credibility) than I have, let me throw out some themes that I seem to be picking up here and ask to be corrected if I'm wrong.

1. 22/1 shots that win at Mnr are more "baffling" than 22/1 shots that win at, say, Belmont?

2. There is a larger percentage of longer priced winners at Mnr than at, say, Belmont? And that's a bad thing?

3. The trainers at Mnr are more "larcenous" than the Contessas and Lakes and Dutrows in NY?

[sq764]

At the risk of ruffling some feathers with far more posts (and credibility) than I have, let me throw out some themes that I seem to be picking up here and ask to be corrected if I'm wrong.

1. 22/1 shots that win at Mnr are more "baffling" than 22/1 shots that win at, say, Belmont?

2. There is a larger percentage of longer priced winners at Mnr than at, say, Belmont? And that's a bad thing?

3. The trainers at Mnr are more "larcenous" than the Contessas and Lakes and Dutrows in NY?
1) I don't think the notion is that there are 22/1 shots winning at Mnr, rather, there is little reasoning for most of them.

2) If this is true, do you think this is based on lack of form, poorer wagering public, or other?

3) I am not entirely convinced of the larcenous behavior that was mentioned.. No opinion.

[Milleruszk]

I think at these tracks you are better off betting on the trainers and jockeys than on the horses themselves. These $5K claimers go in and out of form at the blink of an eye.

Cheap horses = chaos. Mix in a little chicanery and you really have a volitile mix.

[betovernetcapper]

Last night winners at Mnr

race # 1 2 6 9 favorite

race # 5 2nd choice

race # 4 7 3rd choice

race # 8 4th choice


Re the 10th race, all of the horses were S or P types. In a race with this kind of configuration, anything can happen. I made a tiny bet on the #1 thinking he was a little faster than the other ploders and he did get the lead.
Wasn't really shocked when he quit at the top of the strech.
:)

[kenwoodallpromos]

When I was picking there I did OK, picked by leading tr, leading jky, and early speed using ideas from Kline's book and watching for too many leg problems on pp's.

[kenwoodallpromos]

When I was picking there I did OK, picked by leading tr, leading jky, and early speed using ideas from Kline's book and watching for too many leg problems on pp's.
Sq- the same trend prevailed all week- favorites who stayed close to the pace won well over 60% of their races, and last 2f of sprints were 2+-4 seconds slower than 1st 2f in sprints, 5th and 6th f in routes were 2 seconds or less slower even with sub-23 times!
Amazing how many low priced claimers can run 2f in 21.4 to 22.4! Must be the best claimers in the country under 20k!!LOL!!
Some people believe situations like this are coincidence or just the horses' trip, speed, or pace; they just refuse to believe the track maintainence people would actully move the harrow lever in the cab and dig 1"deeper in the stretch, or slow the water truck down 3 MPH and dump tons more water on part of the track!

[kenwoodallpromos]

When I was picking there I did OK, picked by leading tr, leading jky, and early speed using ideas from Kline's book and watching for too many leg problems on pp's.
Sq- the same trend prevailed all week- favorites who stayed close to the pace won well over 60% of their races, and last 2f of sprints were 2+-4 seconds slower than 1st 2f in sprints, 5th and 6th f in routes were 2 seconds or less slower even with sub-23 times!
Amazing how many low priced claimers can run 2f in 21.4 to 22.4! Must be the best claimers in the country under 20k!!LOL!!
Some people believe situations like this are coincidence or just the horses' trip, speed, or pace; they just refuse to believe the track maintainence people would actully move the harrow lever in the cab and dig 1"deeper in the stretch, or slow the water truck down 3 MPH and dump tons more water on part of the track!
"http://www.larcom-mitchell.com/aboutconditioners.htm"
(see the links at the bottom for "super floats" and "thoroughbred". Note on all the "on the fly" or "instantaneous" adjustmets while moving!

[Milleruszk]

The conditions of the race are very important. Not all $5k claiming races are the same. All horses entered in a $5K claiming race for non-winners in 1 yr should be looked at to see when they became eligible for the condition. If this is the first or second race, that they are eligible, give them a hard look. It seems that form reversals are more apt to happen when these horses become eligible for this condition.

[BlueShoe]

On a Laughlin trip 3 weeks ago,against my better judgement,decided to play the Night TB tracks.Had Penn National,Evangeline,and Charlestown (sloppy no less).The results,shall we say,were far below expectations.Education can be painful and costly;fortunately my bets were very small and not very many.Next time,will skip the night action.Not that i dislike the smaller tracks,just not too small or erratic.

[abuttry]

Handsome Darby should have been 100/1! I couldn't believe it when I saw him win. I wanted to gouge my eyes out! As soon as I saw him cross the finish line, I clicked off the television. I just couldn't bear to see the prices posted, LOL, or hear anymore of the awful TVG music.

Honestly, there is no rhyme or reason behind some of these night tracks, particuliarly Mountaineer and Evangeline. When I bet a horse and he loses at Belmont, I can usually find a reason for the winner's victory. Usually it was a contentious race or I missed something or sloppy handicapping. But I can never really look back and see why a huge longshot won at Mountaineer. On different boards, I read that some people love to bet these tracks. And some of them do very good, they say!

I'm not a big bettor, but sometimes at night, I feel like a little action. I only dropped $8 at Mountaineer tonight, but I don't think I've cashed a bet there in a year! Tomorrow, I'm going to bet on all the favorites and hopefully one of them will win, so I can see how good it feels to cash a ticket at Mountaineer.

One of these days, when I'm feeling ambitious, I'm going to launch an intensive study of Mountaineer and figure out what the dirty secret is.

Yes the trainer is horrible but the horse was in very good recent from with a 2nd a win and a third. Also when running that 3rd the 1 who went off the FAV. in the race last night only beat him by a length and a half on a track that night that speed was holding. He made up 4 1/2 lengths in the strecth that day.

Last night the last race was the only sprint half to go under 47 seconds on that newly deepened track so the race set up perfectly for a horse who if you ask me should have never been 22-1. The 8-1 morning line seemed a better fit. For you to say he should have been 100-1 is laughable

[abuttry]

When I was picking there I did OK, picked by leading tr, leading jky, and early speed using ideas from Kline's book and watching for too many leg problems on pp's.
Sq- the same trend prevailed all week- favorites who stayed close to the pace won well over 60% of their races, and last 2f of sprints were 2+-4 seconds slower than 1st 2f in sprints, 5th and 6th f in routes were 2 seconds or less slower even with sub-23 times!
Amazing how many low priced claimers can run 2f in 21.4 to 22.4! Must be the best claimers in the country under 20k!!LOL!!
Some people believe situations like this are coincidence or just the horses' trip, speed, or pace; they just refuse to believe the track maintainence people would actully move the harrow lever in the cab and dig 1"deeper in the stretch, or slow the water truck down 3 MPH and dump tons more water on part of the track!

Have you seen the times this past weekend.......Now they look like the slowest horses in the country

[kenwoodallpromos]

I was speaking of EVD to Sq.
Have you seen the times this past weekend.......Now they look like the slowest horses in the country
MNR- Sat. and Sun there were many slow turf races; cheapy EP's folded in dirt.
There were 2 exceptions Saturday- both late in the day, won close to the pace with a fast 1st call- and 1 of them was a 24k MSW who had .30 closing odd. Cheap horse were wealening late in races where they had to show any early speed, just like cheapies are supposed to!!LOL!!

[cj]

These are two of my most profitable tracks, and I don't try to get into any of the conspiracy/cheating stuff. I play pace and speed numbers, period.

[shanta]

These are two of my most profitable tracks, and I don't try to get into any of the conspiracy/cheating stuff. I play pace and speed numbers, period.


:jump: :jump:

[Zaf]

I play those tracks the same way as CJ. The Big prices on pace plays make up for any shenanigans that might go on.

Z

[Maverick58034]

I find with those tracks either im "on" or im "off". I usually skip the first few races and see what has been going on. If i was "way off", then I skip. If i was close or hit, I go for the gold.

--Mike

[Tom]

These are two of my most profitable tracks, and I don't try to get into any of the conspiracy/cheating stuff. I play pace and speed numbers, period.


Wouldn't that kind of negate the idea of cheating/shennanigins ;)

[Wickel]

What baffles me about Evg are the horses that ship in from decent tracks like Lone Star, Lousiana, Fairgrounds, Oaklawn, which all have good form and what is seemingly a huge class edge. Time and time again, they are nowhere to be seen at the finish. I'm thinking of doing some trainer research and see which stables are winning in the races with huge supers and tris.

[JustRalph]

What baffles me about Evg are the horses that ship in from decent tracks like Lone Star, Lousiana, Fairgrounds, Oaklawn, which all have good form and what is seemingly a huge class edge. Time and time again, they are nowhere to be seen at the finish. I'm thinking of doing some trainer research and see which stables are winning in the races with huge supers and tris.


This has always been something I couldn't believe either. I think it must have something to do with "turn times" the tighter turns etc.

[michiken]

At EVD , the higher class horses that ship in from Lonestar and elsewhere are unaccustomed to running against 14 horse fields?

Some races have so much front speed that you have to look at turn time and final fraction horses too - regardless of their speed fig.

Energy plays a large part in switching from those 4 1/2 furlong to 1 1/16 races.

The worst thing is that once you think you the bias/pace setup doped, it unfolds completely differently....

[Valuist]

I don't know who determines the official track condition at Evangeline, but whoever it is must be on crack. I saw races from there on Thursday and Friday and there was a considerable amount of water on the track yet both days it was labeled "fast" (but sealed). Interesting that the DRF does not recognize a fast, sealed track as a wet track.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know who determines the official track condition at Evangeline, but whoever it is must be on crack. I saw races from there on Thursday and Friday and there was a considerable amount of water on the track yet both days it was labeled "fast" (but sealed). Interesting that the DRF does not recognize a fast, sealed track as a wet track.

Yeah, EVD has been like that for quite some time. I don't know how they can label certain tracks the way they do...

[Valuist]

This is a good thing, as long as one keeps their own track conditions. Is there a better way to find value than taking advantage of bad information?