Putting pressure on myself --

[andicap]

Excuse the ultra long note. Wouldn't blame you if you passed over it.

Over the weekend I took a major step in my handicapping evolution and I'm wondering if it holds lessons for others trying to replicate my efforts.

As I noted elsewhere over the past few months my ROI has markedly improved due to better record keeping and a more disciplined style of wagering to the extent that even if I am not maximizing my profits I know I am doing better because of the consistency in involved in my plays. That makes it much easier to make betting decisions based on a set of basic criteria I have laid out and posted next to my computer. (All value-oriented.)

Example: Top choice, 3-1, 2nd choice 9-1, 3rd choice 7-2 in 8 horse field.
No unknowns to be afraid of and 4th and 5th choices are not serious challengers. What I do is irrelvant -- but I have a plan and don't have to spend more than a minute fashioning a ticket. (OK, two win bets, key the 2nd choice in exactas and use in a few tris in 3rd. Use top 3-1 choice in exactas with higher priced horses in top 5. Ignore lowest paying exactas).

Problem: Thinking I might be ready to go to the next step -- trying to use handicapping as a decent supplemental income to my free-lance work, say around $20K a year (including rebates), I realized I needed to simulate the experience without necessarily yet betting the types of sums I would need to generate such an income. In my mind I haven't proven myself enough yet to do so.

Solution: I told my wife what I hoped to do and that the next six weeks culminating in my trip to Saratoga would determine if I would go forward. If I could maintain my ROI (or at least be profitable enough) while stepping up my betting a modest amount, I told her, I would think about taking less free-lance work and doing more handicapping. That would free me up to do more chores/errands, etc. that she doesn't have time to do as a full-time, majorly overworked manager. Hello, Mr. Mom.

To my complete surprise, she didn't object, perhaps because she doubts I will succeed.

I took that step to put pressure on myself -- to try and simulate what it might be like if I took that next step.

Already I can feel the heat, the pressure I have put on myself to continue to win or else return full-time to the type of mundane working existance we all are striving to escape. That was my purpose -- if I can continue to win under a higher level of pressure I would feel that much more confident of going forward.

But I can tell it's going to be a challenge. I am already second-guessing myself, hesitating at pulling the trigger when I would not have thought twice about making an aggressive bet (for me at the time) a week ago.

The event that triggered this test was a $50 horse at Belmont a week ago in which I made a decent score. This isn't aimed at the least in bragging, but pointing out that in the past I would have subconciously pulled my punches at those odds. That I did not reflected to myself not only maturation as a bettor, but solid handicapping judgment: i.e., it was not only a case of taking a high figured horse on CJ's chart, but reinforcing it with sound decision-making that enabled me to press the bet somewhat.

-- The horse opened at 19-1 and floated up as high as 25-1 while another competitively figurerd horse opened at 15-1 and stayed there like a rock. To me it seemed like that indicated some early, possibly insider, action on my horse.
-- The DRF had no Beyer figure for the horse's last race at 4.5f, thus bettors had nothing to go on and ignored the horse despite it winning the race. A critical factor in my mind in winning as a "value" player is being able to judge a fair amount of the time whether a high odds horse is a real overlay or "too good to be true." To do this a horse that is overlooked has to have some real strong negatives in the DRF and positive attributes only a selected few can see.
Conversely I scrutinize extra carefully horses that look great in the DRF and aren't bet to their morning lines.

Now the nasty reality:

Two races later I liked a 25-1 shot but didn't cash a ticket as it finished 2nd to the 2nd choice and paid $20 to place. I had gotten too attached to the heavy favorite and spread tris around using those two instead of keying the longshot as per my usual strategy.

Lesson taken.

[Fastracehorse]

It calms the seriously challenged mind of the handicapper.

Namaste,

fffastt

[melman]

And thanks for putting it on a public board. You have a copy of Steve Fierro's work Andi?? Seems to me from reading your post your taking the lower hit % higher odds approach. I like that :jump: :)

[Valuist]

I think the aspect of raising one's wagers can be difficult. I was happy with how 2005 went and decided I needed to bump things up. After all, I had a good ROI last year, all I needed to do was keep doing what I was doing except on a bigger scale with my wagers. In theory it was true but in reality, 2006 (so far) is less profitable than 2005 was, and I've already almost passed my 2005 betting handle. I had a terrible first three months but got back all the losses in April and May only to see July start off another slump. What's strange is I've worked harder at it this year than last year. Maybe its just been a random distribution of bad events; maybe I've been subconsciously forcing wagers, in an effort to increase betting handle and rebate money. Maybe whatever was working before just doesn't work anymore. And maybe 6 months isn't a big enough sample size to draw too many conclusions. In any event, don't get too high when you win and don't get too down when you lose. We often talk about how people only talk about handicapping and neglect the wagering aspect.....that may be true to an extent but I think the psychological aspects of the game are the most difficult to master.

Bottom line: if you do feel the pressure, it can affect your wagers and thinking.

[cj]

I think the important thing is to make sure the size of your wagers is commensurate with your goal. If your goal is 20,000 per year, how many races will you play per day on average? How many days per year will you play? What ROI do you expect?

Example:

Goal is $20,000
Days betting is 200
Average races bet per day is 10
ROI w/rebate is 10%

So, you will bet 2000 races, and want to win 20,000. 20,000 / 2,000 is $10 per race profit to achieve your goal.

So, if your ROI is 10%, you will have to bet $100 per race to reach your goal.

It is very important in my opinion to know these numbers beforehand, and figure out if you are comfortable with them. If not, which ones can you change? Maybe you can cut your ROI w/rebate to 5%, but triple the number of races you play doing so.

Now you have 30 plays per day, or 6,000 per year, to make 20,000. You have to make $3.33 per race to make your goal. With an ROI of 5%, you would need to bet $68 per race.

It is all what you are comfortable doing that matters, and having a bankroll to support a selected level of play. Once your figure this out, there is no pressure in my opinion.

[classhandicapper]

I think there are clearly individual psychological barriers when it comes to gambling.

Honestly, I can think of few people in a better postion to comment on this than myself because at various times I've gambled (and made money) at pool, poker, horses and the stock market. I am comfortable with wildly different amounts at each game. So I can tell you with 100% certainly that bankroll is not the only factor. It's not even the major factor.

Personally, I think a lot of it has to do with how certain you are you have a betting edge.

Ask any 10 really sharp horseplayers to make an odds-line for a race and I guarantee you they will come back with a very wide range of opinions because they are using different figures, more or less information, different types of information, have different insights etc.... That kind of thing makes it very difficult to be highly confident in any bet you make because you can't be very sure whether your odds line is much different than the actual tote odds because your information is wrong/incomplete, you don't understand something specific to the situation, etc... or whether you really have an overlay.

The same is often true of poker situations because you can have a fairly sigficant edge and still have losing periods covering 10K hands and vice versa.

At the pool table I almost always knew if I was the better player or had a good bet.

In the stock market, I often KNOW I have an undervalued stock. So the volatility is meaningless. If I didn't know and I had a huge % of my net worth involved, I'd be freaking out.

I think you have to work your way up slowly and find your own comfort level.

Of course, some people are comfortable betting huge amounts quicker than others and still others will be comfortable even if they are big losers, but that's another issue.

[Dave Schwartz]

Andy,

A wonderful post and so well-written, I might add. <G> But then it is what you do, isn't it?

I know you are strongly connected to television. Have you seen the commercial where a kid has returned from Army basic training? The Dad is talking to him about stuff... At the very end, he says something like, "You come back here, walk in and look me straight in the eye. Where did that come from?"

I suggest that you have changed. Go back and read some old handicapping posts of yours from like a year or two ago and see if you can notice the difference.

Confidence and belief will do that to you, my friend.


Dave

[karlskorner]

You wrote "All ready I feel the heat". The "heat" is your obligations and responsibility to your family. Your second guessing, should I or should I not, thats bad. Make a couple of bad wagers and you will try and play catch up, thats bad. You made some changes as Dave pointed out, all for the good, but to short of a time period, thats bad. It's a long long process.

[andicap]

It calms the seriously challenged mind of the handicapper.

Namaste,

fffastta

I actually did take some Yoga classes about 10 years ago -- turns out I had to rush out of work and run to make the train so the whole activity was so stressful the yoga was actually doing more harm than good.

I was thinking, however, of tai chai.

[Tom]

It sounds like you strategy did not fail, you failed your strategy - you didn't do what you planned to do.

That is not confined to horse race betting. Move on. Learn from it, but more on. Turn it to a postive - you handicapped correctly, you bet wrong.

You have to learn to accept deviations from your course, just recognize them and make the right adjustments when called for.

[andicap]

You wrote "All ready I feel the heat". The "heat" is your obligations and responsibility to your family. Your second guessing, should I or should I not, thats bad. Make a couple of bad wagers and you will try and play catch up, thats bad. You made some changes as Dave pointed out, all for the good, but to short of a time period, thats bad. It's a long long process.

Exactly. That's the point. I know WHY I'm feeling the heat and that's why I took this route. I now have to adjust and deal with the pressure of the next level before proceeding. It might well take more than six weeks, maybe even six months.
But it HAS been a long, long process. About 15 years long. Took about 10-12 years to achieve the handicapping prowess and the rest to begin to conquer the money management and psychological hurdles. The latter are still daunting and humbling. I mean, I'm not about to write a book or anything.
It's a feeling of confidence that you finally achieve which frees you from chasing after your losses. A year ago, not cashing on that 2nd place 25-1 shot would have devastated me for a week. Instead I plowed right back into it with little residual baggage.
I credit Keilan with planting the seed a year ago that changed my way of thinking and freed me from the tyranny of picking A winner. "Let the winner come to you," he said -- a perfect Zen credo for the simulcasting age -- and that's how I play today. If you play one track, you can afford a more rigid mindset and use a selection-oriented style.
Note that I never said this would become a full-time job, only a solid supplement to my regular living. As "Dirty Harry" once said, "A man has to know his limitations."

[andicap]

I think the important thing is to make sure the size of your wagers is commensurate with your goal. If your goal is 20,000 per year, how many races will you play per day on average? How many days per year will you play? What ROI do you expect?

Example:

Goal is $20,000
Days betting is 200
Average races bet per day is 10
ROI w/rebate is 10%

So, you will bet 2000 races, and want to win 20,000. 20,000 / 2,000 is $10 per race profit to achieve your goal.

So, if your ROI is 10%, you will have to bet $100 per race to reach your goal.

It is very important in my opinion to know these numbers beforehand, and figure out if you are comfortable with them. If not, which ones can you change? Maybe you can cut your ROI w/rebate to 5%, but triple the number of races you play doing so.

Now you have 30 plays per day, or 6,000 per year, to make 20,000. You have to make $3.33 per race to make your goal. With an ROI of 5%, you would need to bet $68 per race.

It is all what you are comfortable doing that matters, and having a bankroll to support a selected level of play. Once your figure this out, there is no pressure in my opinion.

CJ,. It's like you've been reading my mind. EXACTLY how I have been thinking about this process.

[cj]

I should also mention it is important to know if your bet size will have any notable effect on payouts. This can be a problem if you play the smaller tracks.

[andicap]

Dave/Melman,
Thanks for the kind words. One of my motivating factors has been that 25 years of doing the same thing for a living -- journalism of one form or another -- I was feeling burnt out and bored. Once you realize you're not making it to the Times, the Journal or Business Week a lot of your ambition goes awry.

And yes, Mel, I'm using a similar strategy to Steve Fierro's in terms of odds acceptance. As CJ showed me if you bet several tracks in a day the chances are at least one is working, thus avoiding complete disaster.

Valuist, Class/Tom
I couldn't agree more with your statements. As I step up my wagers, I could very well fail this test miserably. But even if I do, I will keep plugging because I now realize it's possible. That's something I wasn't very confident about a year ago. Look how long it took John Henry to find himself as a racehorse.

When I lose I study like crazy to see how it happened. Sometimes I overlooked something elementry -- sometimes I just made a bad paceline decision, poor wager, or failed to recognize a bias. Or it was just bad luck. As long as I know what caused me to lose I'm fine. I write it down in a journal and keep reviewing my notes to try and avoid similar mistakes in the future.

And as Dick Mitchell pointed out, at the track about 10%-20% of the time "s__t happens" and you've got to let it go.

[Red Knave]

Here's what sprang to mind as I read it -
It sounds like you are trying to sabotage your plan, just like Tom mentioned. There is no need to put that kind of pressure on yourself. There is no need to give yourself a dollar goal AND a time goal. You are already head and shoulders above most 'players'. You need to work your plan. You have as many money management tools as any of us. Pick one and let it tell you when you can bet the amounts you need to get you the $20k you want. And don't stop there.
I'm really looking forward to Saratoga now.


:ThmbUp:

[andicap]

Thanks for the reply, Red.
I've always worked under pressure. As a journalist deadline pressures have been a way of life for me since working news at my college radio station. The day after I graduated I got a job at a local station. $110 a week! I couldn't make ends meet if my parents weren't kicking in $80 a month. That was in the late 70s. I got $175/week my next job and thought I had hit the jackpot. :D

[Tom]

andi,
I remeber Bert Mayne (PIRCO) talked about givinng yourself permisison to win.
His toughts were that "gambling" was evil, so sub-conciously, you try to cause yourself to fail. You have to tell yourself that you are allowed to gamble and win.

[classhandicapper]

andycap,

I don't know if it will give you any comfort, but you have a lot of company.

I quit a high paying data processing job last year because I was burnt out and started to have some stress related health problems.

I was always a weekend warrior as a horseplayer. Now that I have a lot more time, a lot less income, and am feeling 100% again, I am also trying to raise my volume of bets and the bet amount. It's tough to find the correct level because as you expand you move into more and more marginal areas while at the same time betting higher amounts.

I don't know if you have the same problem, but I struggle with another issue.

I can only put "X" amount of time and energy into handicapping and playing the horses before it stops being a game that I enjoy and starts becoming work.

I could expand the number of tracks I play and play out west after the east coast is done, but I don't really want to do that just to make more money unless there's a specific stakes race or something that gives me a sporting interest.

I think you have to search for the balance as part of all this and that's a very individual thing.

[joeyspicks]

I think the important thing is to make sure the size of your wagers is commensurate with your goal. If your goal is 20,000 per year, how many races will you play per day on average? How many days per year will you play? What ROI do you expect?

Example:

Goal is $20,000
Days betting is 200
Average races bet per day is 10
ROI w/rebate is 10%

So, you will bet 2000 races, and want to win 20,000. 20,000 / 2,000 is $10 per race profit to achieve your goal.

So, if your ROI is 10%, you will have to bet $100 per race to reach your goal.

It is very important in my opinion to know these numbers beforehand, and figure out if you are comfortable with them. If not, which ones can you change? Maybe you can cut your ROI w/rebate to 5%, but triple the number of races you play doing so.

Now you have 30 plays per day, or 6,000 per year, to make 20,000. You have to make $3.33 per race to make your goal. With an ROI of 5%, you would need to bet $68 per race.

It is all what you are comfortable doing that matters, and having a bankroll to support a selected level of play. Once your figure this out, there is no pressure in my opinion.

This is exactly correct! And knowing these kind of numbers gives you both a confidence and a LONG TERM perspective. Sadly most players have a very short term perspective (like race to race? :lol: ). Changing perspective in my opionion is extremely important. Bad races, poor rides, dq's , bad days and even a bad week no longer have the same impact on you when you have a long-term perspective.

The other "intangable" is simply staying aware....and in the present moment. This staying present will give you a calm regardless circumstances and any external or internal pressures you might feel. Staying in the present moment is much easier said than done............especially during the heat of battle..but its a skill worth pursuing both for handicapping success and life success.

[the_fat_man]

andycap,


I don't know if you have the same problem, but I struggle with another issue.

I can only put "X" amount of time and energy into handicapping and playing the horses before it stops being a game that I enjoy and starts becoming work.



The is precisely the issue I've been struggling with the past year and half.
I genuinely want to return to the game but I just can't make the required commitment. Having played fulltime in the '80's, I'm well aware of the amount of work required to keep one competitive.

I'm not duluding myself; gambling, at this level, is not supposed to be 'fun', it's WORK. Yet, the rewards are immense.

While completing a particularly challenging assignment recently, I couldn't help but wonder why I was wasting my time and ability (my BRAIN, if you will) in an area in which I had absolutely no interest (it's just a job) rather than playing the horses (an area which remains interesting 30 years later).

That's the flip side.

There are jobs

and then there are JOBS.


Have they raised the mound? (since the averages appear a bit low)

[andicap]

Joey/CJ.
I have thought about winning in exactly those terms, not to put a limit on myself but to set a reachable goal. With rebates it's even more realistic. If you can find 20 bets a day at 9% ROI plus 6% average rebate through Pinnace that means if you bet $50 a race, that's $150 in winnings a day.
Play 160 times a year -- so I can do my other work -- and that's $24,000.
Is 20 too many? OK, make it 15 and rachet the average bet up to $67. That's not that much higher than my current level. The main difference is the consistency: Playing day in and day out and remaining on an even keel no matter what. No reason to limit myself to $24K but knowing it's an achievable goal without having to throw in $500 a race is comforting.

Guys,

I totally understand the "work" aspect of it. There are times you don't want to keep up whatever records you're keeping or some family matter intervenes and you've got to work double-time the following day to catch up.

I'm not naive -- although I hope it remains fun I understand a job is a job. I mean, even professional athletes bitch and moan and get worn out. And who's got a sweeter gig than them? (OK, maybe Keith Richards.)

I think the most difficult part will be to remain balanced and cheerful with my family even if I have a bad day. Athletes talk about staying on an "even keel" and the same attitude is critical for handicappers. I cant imagine what it most be like at home when Joe Shablotnik is in an 0-fer-30 slump at the plate.

But here's the best part: You depend on no one else to succeed or fail.
I'm coming off a free-lance writing job that was a pain in the ass because it was for a trade publication that no one read and it was bitch getting people to talk to me. It was difficult to psych myself up to sit down and write because who wants to pen something no one -- at least no one important -- is going to read?

The other incentive: Seeing the look on people's faces when you tell them what you do. :D

[ryesteve]

But here's the best part: You depend on no one else to succeed or fail.
How do you figure? Every race I lose is because the jocket f'd up :D

[traynor]

I think there are clearly individual psychological barriers when it comes to gambling.

Personally, I think a lot of it has to do with how certain you are you have a betting edge.

This is a huge issue in gambling professionally. The "certainty" you refer to is what psychologists call "self-efficacy," a subjective belief in your own ability to do a given thing successfully. It is essential for a professional bettor. It is also one of the easiest beliefs to get wrong, because it is the complete opposite of what many people call "self-confidence."

Absolutely, 100%, you must be certain in what you are doing.

Absolutely, 100%, that certainty must be based on cold, objective, utterly ruthless self-evaluation, with no hint of rah-rah, puffery, or self-hype.

When you can clearly distinguish between those two, all the rest comes pretty easy.

[classhandicapper]

This is a huge issue in gambling professionally. The "certainty" you refer to is what psychologists call "self-efficacy," a subjective belief in your own ability to do a given thing successfully. It is essential for a professional bettor. It is also one of the easiest beliefs to get wrong, because it is the complete opposite of what many people call "self-confidence."

Absolutely, 100%, you must be certain in what you are doing.

Absolutely, 100%, that certainty must be based on cold, objective, utterly ruthless self-evaluation, with no hint of rah-rah, puffery, or self-hype.

When you can clearly distinguish between those two, all the rest comes pretty easy.

If you were giving me 6-5 on coin flips there's amost no amount of money that would stress me as long I was financed well.

If you were giving me 6-5 on horses I made even money on my odds line I would be stressed for a surprisingly small amount of money because the confidence level can't be nearly as high in a game where you are working with incomplete and often inaccurate information...not to mention imperfect understanding.

[Jeff P]

Andi - It sounds like you're well on your way. You realize that it CAN be done and you're starting to internalize how YOU can get it done.

As others have alluded to, there are psychological aspects and they are extremely important when it comes to doing this successfully. The first thing that happens once you step out of the 9-5 world is that the steady paycheck goes away. So it's natural to feel some immediate pressure to succeed. Paychecks generally are timed to coincide with when bills are due. Overlay winners don't behave that way. Over the course of several months profits might actually exceed what you used to get in the form of a paycheck. But it's a streaky endeavor. I've been at it now for a week or so over three years. And looking back I wouldn't have it any other way. One thing I've discovered along the way is that finding ways to eliminate pressure will help you build your confidence. And CONFIDENCE will go a long way towards helping you reach your goals.

Things for this that I think are key:

1. KEEP RECORDS - review them often. You will encounter losing streaks. Accept that they are part of the game. Reviewing past records during a losing streak is one way to stay afloat psychologically. When you can SEE that losing streaks are part of the game and that you've had them in the past and have rebounded strongly from EVERY ONE OF THEM - that always helps reinforce the idea internally that you WILL achieve a profit over the course of time.

2. Create your own MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN. During a losing streak the bankroll must bend but not break. I strongly advise against flat betting. Consider instead making each play a percentage of bankroll and base that percentage upon the strength of the type of play. A careful review of your own records should suggest ballpark percentages that will work for your style of play. This approach lessens the effect of losing streaks on the bankroll. With this type of approach - if you are a winning player - you will GROW the bankroll over the course of time. Consider tracking your plays and your money management plan with the aid of a spreadsheet.

3. Understand that playing horses means losing contact with peers. One thing that I do miss from my 9-5 days is the camaraderie and banter back and forth between me and the people I used to work with. There were always happy hours and company picnics and softball games and days at the lake at nights out. When I was working I always somehow felt "plugged in." That's a feeling that can give you confidence in what you are doing. It goes away when you play horses for a living. Let's face it - playing horses is a pretty solitary endeavor. Not having peers creates a void. Understand that going in and by all means explore other outlets to fill the void. My own experience tells me that human beings are social animals. Being too solitary isn't healthy. And to do this successfully you DO need to be healthy.

3. I think this next part is overlooked by a almost all horse players everywhere. There's a fine line that separates the masses of degenerate gamblers from the rare consummate professional. Can you guess what that is? In my opinion it extends far beyond having the ability to win. It's having real inner game - a STRONG INTERNAL BELIEF SYSTEM. You have to have internalized a very strong belief that not only can you do this but that you're extremely proud of the fact that this is what you do. It doesn't come overnight. But when you can look your friends and new people that you meet in the eye and confidently tell them exactly what you do - and they can SEE the confidence in your eyes - and you KNOW that they can see your confidence and will accept what you do as part of who you are BECAUSE of your confidence - that's how you'll know you've arrived.

-jp

.

[the_fat_man]

While I don't want to minimize the importance of the social and psychological aspects of winning consistently

the focus needs to be placed on one's ability.

The .300 hitter endures slumps, and the doubts that come with them, but at root he's attained a particular level of expertise

a level that he can count on being able to replicate from year to year, at the highest level

Luck
state of mind
support networks (peers)
self control
$$ intimidation

are all important components
but basically worthless if
one does not have the ability

this ability comes with hard work
the game is not intractable
the more time/effort one puts in
the more skilled one becomes at it
and thus
the more successful one can be at it


there are no mysteries
and no shortcuts


by the time one has 'worked' towards getting at a particular level - step by step -
one's abilities are evident (to the individual and others)
the factors mentioned above are no longer issues

for me, the biggest hurdle remains the motivation for the amount of work that this effort requires

[joeyspicks]

3. I think this next part is overlooked by a almost all horse players everywhere. There's a fine line that separates the masses of degenerate gamblers from the rare consummate professional. Can you guess what that is? In my opinion it extends far beyond having the ability to win. It's having real inner game - a STRONG INTERNAL BELIEF SYSTEM. You have to have internalized a very strong belief that not only can you do this but that you're extremely proud of the fact that this is what you do. It doesn't come overnight. But when you can look your friends and new people that you meet in the eye and confidently tell them exactly what you do - and they can SEE the confidence in your eyes - and you KNOW that they can see your confidence and will accept what you do as part of who you are BECAUSE of your confidence - that's how you'll know you've arrived.

-jp

.[/QUOTE]


YES!:ThmbUp:

Jeff,

You perfectly captured an "intangable". Without this..... well

ya know..


great post Jeff


and Andi great thread. As Jeff stated you are "on your way". The mindset part is the part no one else can give to you.

[traynor]

In my opinion it extends far beyond having the ability to win. It's having real inner game - a STRONG INTERNAL BELIEF SYSTEM. You have to have internalized a very strong belief that not only can you do this but that you're extremely proud of the fact that this is what you do.

That is about as eloquent a description of self-efficacy as I have seen. The only thing that might be added is the observation that the more that internal belief is correlated with reality, the higher the self-efficacy.

[OhioGambler]

For the relatively new handicapper, this thread has been a true joy to watch. Andy has received some advice, but the advice that every other horseplayer on this board has received is priceless.

Thanks...

OhioGambler

[Overlay]

If you were giving me 6-5 on horses I made even money on my odds line I would be stressed for a surprisingly small amount of money because the confidence level can't be nearly as high in a game where you are working with incomplete and often inaccurate information...not to mention imperfect understanding.

You're certainly right about the relative imprecision of the odds-line process, compared to games governed strictly by the laws of probability. But I think it's still worth the effort to attempt to gauge winning chances, whether through experience and intuition, or the tracking of statistics. For me, a quantitative approach goes a long way toward maintaining the objectivity and confidence to use the odds line as a basis for wagers, while also making it easier to handicap in a methodical, replicable manner from race to race.

[KingChas]

Andi,
I see you are a fine family man.The major reason I have not ventured into pro-handicapping is rising health insurance rates.Have you figured this in?Are you or your wife covered.If so and you pay the bills first.Go for it.I'm sure you will succede.
As a youngster I felt invinsible.As age sets in I need medical coverage (perscription).
Something to ponder.If all systems go.Do it.

Best of Luck,
KingChas

[andicap]

Fortunately my wife has a good job -- ...my obligation is to keep the house clean, run all the errands and take care of our daughter because she works longer hours.

[karlskorner]

AHA...so we are back to square one. Your wife has a good job, soooo all the basics such as bills, health insurance etc. are covered. There really is no "heat" on what you do. You might as well take everyones advice and "go for it", it's what known as the "ace in the hole", you have nothing to lose.

[cj]

Karl, you always talk about having other income as a bad thing. That is crazy. He could very well lose that income. So he does have something to lose, in addition to the current income he would be giving up.

Any plan that provides a safety net to gambling is a good plan.

[karlskorner]

There is a BIG difference, prior to Andicap's last post, I assumed that his was the only household income and he was seriously thinking about chucking his writing assignments and earn his living from handicapping and the pressures surrounding this. Of course having an "ace in the hole" applys to any business venture you may undertake. His outlook on the future of this gamble would be entirely different if the welfare of his family depended on it, but all he is doing is extending his hobby to the max.

[cj]

He never said in his initial post he was giving up anything to try to make it gambling.

Thinking I might be ready to go to the next step -- trying to use handicapping as a decent supplemental income to my free-lance work, say around $20K a year (including rebates)

[karlskorner]

And further on he referred to his mundane job and giving it up. Ninety percent ( wild guess ) of the posters have other income, it sure helps in the "comfort zone". I am not knocking "other income" to supplement the extension of ones hobby and if he "really" believes in himself and the methods he is using, it's time to take the big step.

[GameTheory]

But why does that make it a "hobby"? It is only a hobby if he really doesn't care whether he wins or loses, i.e. he is going to do it anyway. If a guy has two businesses (each a "comfort zone" for the other), does that make one of them a hobby?

[cj]

GT, my point exactly, but you expressed it much better. :)

[classhandicapper]

You're certainly right about the relative imprecision of the odds-line process, compared to games governed strictly by the laws of probability. But I think it's still worth the effort to attempt to gauge winning chances, whether through experience and intuition, or the tracking of statistics. For me, a quantitative approach goes a long way toward maintaining the objectivity and confidence to use the odds line as a basis for wagers, while also making it easier to handicap in a methodical, replicable manner from race to race.

Absolutely agree.

Because I look at so many sources of information and use both numerical and non-numerical measurements of performance, I think I'm especially sensitive to how my own odds line would change (sometimes sharply) depending on which source of information and method I was focusing on (if I just picked one).

That insight lead me to the same path that many value oriented stock investors take. They don't make an investment unless they have a good enough margin of safety.

I don't make exact odds lines much anymore even though my thinking is along those lines, but I would never play a 6-5 shot I thought should be even money. I would insist on 8-5 or more to make up for the times my own information or insights were inaccurate, incomplete etc.... I would also expect my ROI to be slightly lower than my odds line suggested because over the long haul, I expect to make mistakes due to the quality of information and my own shortcomings etc...

[joeyspicks]

Plus Andi titled this thread: Putting pressure on myself !


Now imagine....his wife works and the bills are covered. So he starts to FAIL in his handicapping business.....

It doesnt take too much imagination for anyone to see this could create MORE pressure on a man. ie trying to start a "business".......a non-traditional business that hardly ANYONE considers as a real business. And hardly anyone figures its really possible too make a profit. Now you have to explain to your wife....yes it can be done and I CAN DO IT! (meanwhile you just had a losing week.....and you're 0'fer your last 12).


I for one think this is MORE pressure. You must know your "numbers" and your money management MUST be terrific....and as stated before you MUST HAVE AN ROCK SOLID BELIEF SYSTEM!


stay the course ANDI:ThmbUp:

[karlskorner]

My Random House describes "hobby" as an activity or interest pursued for pleasure or relaxation (probably to get away from the mundane job). When someone asks what do you do ? Do reply I handicap horse races and also have a job as a (whatever) ?.

[karlskorner]

It's the only "business" I know of where you can't go to your parents, grandparents, local bank, finance company or "Vinny" your local lender and ask for a loan of $100K to take the next step up, regardless of how good your records and data appear.

[cj]

My Random House describes "hobby" as an activity or interest pursued for pleasure or relaxation (probably to get away from the mundane job). When someone asks what do you do ? Do reply I handicap horse races and also have a job as a (whatever) ?.

Yes, I generally mention all my sources of income.

[GameTheory]

It's the only "business" I know of where you can't go to your parents, grandparents, local bank, finance company or "Vinny" your local lender and ask for a loan of $100K to take the next step up, regardless of how good your records and data appear.First of all, you can always go to your parents (if they're alive). You can go to parents and ask for help to buy crack if you want to. They may turn you down, but you can always ask.

Second of all, horse racing as a business is basically investing. You can't get a loan from the bank to invest in the stock market either. (Although you can buy somewhat more than you actually have on margin, but you're at risk of a margin call at any time.)

Is all investing a hobby if you still hold a job? The whole idea is silly, as if putting yourself at the most risk possible was some sort of noble act. If you can make money doing more than one thing, it is a smart thing to do. It doesn't mean all but one of the endeavors are just frivolous leisure activities.

For instance, I'm the co-owner of an internet business. I make money everyday just sitting around doing nothing because it pretty much takes care of itself (although it took a few years to get rolling). But now I put in maybe 5 hours of work a month on that business. I don't have to do anything else at all if I don't want to, and the rent will still be paid. But if I choose to spend my time trying to earn more money doing whatever -- starting new businesses, betting on horses, investing in the stock market, doing freelance programming jobs, whatever -- am I just goofing off because I'm not forced to do those things? Absurd.

[JustMissed]

[QUOTE=GameTheory]For instance, I'm the co-owner of an internet business. I make money everyday just sitting around doing nothing because it pretty much takes care of itself (although it took a few years to get rolling). But now I put in maybe 5 hours of work a month on that business. I don't have to do anything else at all if I don't want to, and the rent will still be paid. [ /QUOTE]

What is your website address?

Thanks,

JM

[Tom]

"Problem: Thinking I might be ready to go to the next step -- trying to use handicapping as a decent supplemental income to my free-lance work, say around $20K a year…I would think about taking less free-lance work and doing more handicapping..."

So I would not call his writing career a hobby. I would neither call his plan to use racing to derive income to be used tohelp support the family a hobby.
Would it be a hobby if he got a job as a bartender at night?

[kingfin66]

For instance, I'm the co-owner of an internet business. I make money everyday just sitting around doing nothing because it pretty much takes care of itself (although it took a few years to get rolling). But now I put in maybe 5 hours of work a month on that business. I don't have to do anything else at all if I don't want to, and the rent will still be paid.

What is your website address?

Thanks,

JM

What is your's?

[GameTheory]

What is your website address?I'd rather not say. Wasn't trying to advertise...

[PaceAdvantage]

Is all investing a hobby if you still hold a job? The whole idea is silly, as if putting yourself at the most risk possible was some sort of noble act. If you can make money doing more than one thing, it is a smart thing to do. It doesn't mean all but one of the endeavors are just frivolous leisure activities.

I hereby nominate GameTheory for winner of the "King of Common Sense" award.

[Murph]

I'd rather not say. Wasn't trying to advertise...

Please email or pm it to me GT.

Murph

[karlskorner]

You made my point. "I don't have to do anything else and the rent will still be paid" You have your parachute, cushion or "ace in the hole". Your in your comfort zone, win, lose or draw, the rent will be paid, so however your handicapping goes, because of your "other income", the rent will be paid.

Now put yourself in the position of the handicapper who does not have your cushion, you made some "bad" wagers, your in a hole and need to get out, the rent is due, who do you turn to ? I am not knocking "other income", more power to those that have it, but you certainly have to agree that your wagering and how you approach it will be governed by this.

Your handicapping and wagering are a sideline or hobby for additonal income, unless your handicapping produces more return than your "other income".

[chickenhead]

I think it probably is more difficult to work without a safety net for many people, in that it can cause them to make a lot of mistakes, although it does usually have the added benefit of sharpening the senses and increasing motivation.

Most people like to think of pressure as an externally applied thing, but our reactions to it are really under our control. I work with plenty of guys who are set with regards to money. The late 90's tech boom left a lot of money in a lot of pockets around here.

So these guys have no real pressure applied to them externally to do anything, the rent is paid for, but most of them drive themselves like maniacs. 7 day work weeks, 14 hour days -- they are applying pressure themselves...for their sense of self-worth, to be successful in the eyes of their peers, to justify the time spent away from their families, and because they enjoy what they do. They are certainly professionals.

People are too different to make broad generalisations about how they respond to pressure. I know plenty of line techs who desperately need their paycheck to pay the rent who don't put themselves under half the pressure that more well off people do. Everyone reacts differently.

I think your behavior and how you handle yourself defines whether you are a professional more than your monetary needs do.

[GameTheory]

You made my point. "I don't have to do anything else and the rent will still be paid" You have your parachute, cushion or "ace in the hole". Your in your comfort zone, win, lose or draw, the rent will be paid, so however your handicapping goes, because of your "other income", the rent will be paid.

Now put yourself in the position of the handicapper who does not have your cushion, you made some "bad" wagers, your in a hole and need to get out, the rent is due, who do you turn to ? I am not knocking "other income", more power to those that have it, but you certainly have to agree that your wagering and how you approach it will be governed by this.

Your handicapping and wagering are a sideline or hobby for additonal income, unless your handicapping produces more return than your "other income".I appreciate the point about the pressure, but your conclusion doesn't follow. The presence or absence of pressure is not what makes something a "leisure" or "professional" activity. Let's say a surgeon makes a lot of money in his practice, invests wisely, etc and after some number of years finds his net wealth is quite enough to sustain him for the rest of his life. But he continues to practice -- is he now performing surgery as a hobby? (Would you rather have the stressed out surgeon working on your heart, or a guy that can focus on the task at hand?) Is anyone not living check-to-check goofing off because they won't starve that week if they didn't get paid?

I see no reason to think less of someone as a horseplayer if he doesn't derive his sole income from it, like he's not a "real" horseplayer. A guy that has to win because he's got no other options has more pressure on him to win. Let's just leave it at that. You could also say he's not so smart for not leaving himself any other options, but that is another topic...

[Tom]

Your handicapping and wagering are a sideline or hobby for additonal income, unless your handicapping produces more return than your "other income".


No. What if I have two jobs to support myself? Is the lower paying job a hjobby? hardly. I need BOTH to pay the rent.
Why should it be different for Andy - he is wanting to substitute horse race betting for some writing assignments, but if he needs X dollars from some source and X from another, what is the diff?

[JustMissed]

What is your's?

Kingfin66,

You may have gotten confused about the quote.

I was quoting gametheory where he discussed "his" co-ownership of a website.

I do not have a website but wanted to take a look at his for obvious reasons.

Thanks,

JM

[Fastracehorse]

a

I actually did take some Yoga classes about 10 years ago -- turns out I had to rush out of work and run to make the train so the whole activity was so stressful the yoga was actually doing more harm than good.

I was thinking, however, of tai chai.

I only do it once a week but the shi* is amazing - body and mind.

GL with Tai Chi - I hear that is great too.

fffastt

[Jeff P]

Putting aside the argument of whether or not a winning player is or isn't a professional because he or she has other areas of income...

I think the frame/mindset/inner game/internal belief system of the professional that best eliminates pressure - has to be this:

My records and experience tell me the following: I am a winning player. I have a game plan that works. The really important thing - the most important thing - I need to focus on is executing my game plan. If I do that - just execute my game plan - and nothing else - then winning takes care of itself.

--jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

I hate to disappoint folks, but GameTheory's website (if it's the one I know about) has nothing (well, almost nothing) to do with horse racing....

Right GT?

[andicap]

I hate to disappoint folks, but GameTheory's website (if it's the one I know about) has nothing (well, almost nothing) to do with horse racing....

Right GT?

Does it relate to game theory? :D

[PaceAdvantage]

Does it relate to game theory? :D

Surprisingly, no.

[GameTheory]

We sell t-shirts and stuff like that. And truth be told I'd probably get crucified on this board for some of the stuff on there. (Let's just say our demographic is mainly college kids and 20-somethings.)

[PaceAdvantage]

And truth be told I'd probably get crucified on this board for some of the stuff on there.

Only by those without a sense of humor....

[KingChas]

Andi,
My personal opinion would be to wait till after the Saratoga meet to venture into this.But it would be a hell of a trial period to see if you could handle the pressure and thought process.With all the distractions and hoopla Saratoga brings. :D

[kingfin66]

Kingfin66,

You may have gotten confused about the quote.

I was quoting gametheory where he discussed "his" co-ownership of a website.

I do not have a website but wanted to take a look at his for obvious reasons.

Thanks,

JM

I get confused easily :)

[WJ47]

We sell t-shirts and stuff like that. And truth be told I'd probably get crucified on this board for some of the stuff on there. (Let's just say our demographic is mainly college kids and 20-somethings.)

My teenage daughter loves to shop at Hot Topic for concert shirts. They have all those funny dirty shirts. Although I don't let her wear any of them, I secretly get a big chuckle out of reading them! :)

This is a great thread, I've been following it with interest and can't wait to hear more details! I think its going to be alot of fun. I'd love to give it a try but I have absolutely no self control. :)

[speculus]

I think the important thing is to make sure the size of your wagers is commensurate with your goal. If your goal is 20,000 per year, how many races will you play per day on average? How many days per year will you play? What ROI do you expect?

Example:

Goal is $20,000
Days betting is 200
Average races bet per day is 10
ROI w/rebate is 10%

So, you will bet 2000 races, and want to win 20,000. 20,000 / 2,000 is $10 per race profit to achieve your goal.

So, if your ROI is 10%, you will have to bet $100 per race to reach your goal.

It is very important in my opinion to know these numbers beforehand, and figure out if you are comfortable with them. If not, which ones can you change? Maybe you can cut your ROI w/rebate to 5%, but triple the number of races you play doing so.

Now you have 30 plays per day, or 6,000 per year, to make 20,000. You have to make $3.33 per race to make your goal. With an ROI of 5%, you would need to bet $68 per race.

It is all what you are comfortable doing that matters, and having a bankroll to support a selected level of play. Once your figure this out, there is no pressure in my opinion.

Cj has given you excellent advice, to which I would like to add some points. Nothing new really, only reminders. I know you are a very good and experienced handicapper (from your posts), so excuse the tone of these suggestions. I guess many newbies must be learning from this thread, think it is for them in the garb of advice to you.

Concentrate on only a handful of tracks.
Don't overestimate your physical energy levels (especially, number of hours slotted for handicapping.)
If you believe in the power of the subconscious, use "auto suggestion" effectively, and on a regular basis. (But NEVER discuss with ANYONE if that helps you miraculously, there is a sound reason in Oriental wisdom why such things, when discussed, lose their efficacy, which as a Westerner, you will find difficult to digest.)
Don't listen to "experts" AFTER you have made up your mind about a race.
Never deviate from the rule "bet more when winning", or better still, use Dave's software to get the best out of your betting. I have only glimpsed it in one of the threads here, but what I saw convinced me it's a wonderful tool.
When faced with a longish losing streak, use the "spider" approach. The spider does not go out hunting for insects. Instead, it weaves its web, and "waits" patiently until the prey "comes" into it. Similarly, ensure that your file has no huge errors, that figs make sense and, if you have trip notes based on personal observation, wait for those bets. Let the bets come to you instead of you going after them.

[mainardi]

My teenage daughter loves to shop at Hot Topic for concert shirts. They have all those funny dirty shirts. Although I don't let her wear any of them, I secretly get a big chuckle out of reading them!
Just had to chime in about your "Hot Topic" comment. My teen girl likes to go there as well, and she picked out a shirt for ME that says "SARCASM, IT BEATS KILLING PEOPLE"... my new motto. Yes, I bought it... and I wear it in public!!!

[mainardi]

Okay, taking a serious tone now.

For me, racing is an avocation -- namely, something that I enjoy and would like to add to my collection of income-making activities -- so I can see where 'cap is ready to give it a try. But, it's not like "Let It Ride", so be prepared...

Now, for some two-word phrases to ponder:
LOSING STREAK - can you handle more than one?
INTESTINAL FORTITUDE - do you have it?
FAMILY TIME - don't neglect it!
BIG PICTURE - what is yours?
ANOTHER JOB - because that's what it is!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ElKabong]

Good for you Andy. I think this is a great idea and I wish you all the best!

[jma]

Andi, I thought there were some interesting ideas in this thread from a few months back. Disregard this if you have posted an update elsewhere, but I was curious how things were going for you.
Thanks,
Jerry

[1st time lasix]

Going "professional" whatever that means....{since literally every wager is done for money} is an extremely dangerous activity where so much money from the pools is taken off the top each day. Only 75 to 85 cents on the dollar is returned to the players. That is the crux of the matter! No matter how confident you are....or your recent winning roi.....you still will have poor streaks, bad racing luck and some chaos in this venture. All of the people who start using "rent" money at the track are on a very slippery slope. The takeout will get you sooner or later. Does the saying "don't quit your day job" mean anything to you? In my opinion....at least in the financial markets you can get dividends....and benefit from a growing upward trending economy {internationally if not regionally} if you know the goods and services being supplied by a business for a margin/profit. If the earnings are beating expectations and additional opportunities exist.... the stock will eventually rise {no one is skimming the pool} Do yourself a big favor before you fall over the edge at the track.....Spend your hard work and effort on a better...more level playing field! It is true that you have a lot of successful players on this site.....that is great....but an experienced player should be warning you...{if you haven't done it already in your own brain} No one should be encouraging you to get deeper with money that is important to the welfare of your family. There is nothing romantic nor particularly glamourous from someone you thinks you can beat the onerous takeout the rest of your life. This lifestyle is immediate self gratification is addictive.

[Cesario!]

Going "professional" whatever that means....{since literally every wager is done for money} is an extremely dangerous activity where so much money from the pools is taken off the top each day. Only 75 to 85 cents on the dollar is returned to the players. That is the crux of the matter! No matter how confident you are....or your recent winning roi.....you still will have poor streaks, bad racing luck and some chaos in this venture. All of the people who start using "rent" money at the track are on a very slippery slope. The takeout will get you sooner or later. Does the saying "don't quit your day job" mean anything to you? In my opinion....at least in the financial markets you can get dividends....and benefit from a growing upward trending economy {internationally if not regionally} if you know the goods and services being supplied by a business for a margin/profit. If the earnings are beating expectations and additional opportunities exist.... the stock will eventually rise {no one is skimming the pool} Do yourself a big favor before you fall over the edge at the track.....Spend your hard work and effort on a better...more level playing field! It is true that you have a lot of successful players on this site.....that is great....but an experienced player should be warning you...{if you haven't done it already in your own brain} No one should be encouraging you to get deeper with money that is important to the welfare of your family. There is nothing romantic nor particularly glamourous from someone you thinks you can beat the onerous takeout the rest of your life. This lifestyle is immediate self gratification is addictive.

And, yet, playing the game permits the ability to cycle your bankroll at a fast rate -- earning returns (and compounding them) not on a yearly basis, but on a monthly, weekly, or daily basis. As such, it has an income-generating potential that long-term stock market investing does not have (you can argue that trading has the same income potential, but that's not what's being referred to here).

The key, of course, is a positive expectation -- something very few players have. But some players DO have it...

[singunner]

Your website isn't http://www.tshirthell.com (http://www.tshirthell.com/), is it? The Hot Topic shirts never appealed to me, but there were some in T-shirt Hell I always found amusing.

Since you said it could get you crucified, I'd assume it wouldn't be something as innocent as http://www.threadless.com (http://www.threadless.com/).

[maxwell]

Andy,

I would suggest sticking to the shallow end ( being a serious player on the weekends ) before you go swimming in the deep end. See how you hold up to $100 win plays ( assuming you are a win warrior ). If you have a good year, crank it up to $200. If you're still winning and haven't suffered a coronary, then you can swing for the fence.

Crawl before you walk, and walk before you run!

[andicap]

Well, I'm sure there are more than a few people out there wondering what the hell has happened in the last few months. I have hesitated writing because I knew it would end up as a long note and I really haven't had the time to devote to putting a thoughtful piece together.

And as I need to prepare for tomorrow (after a trip to the DMV in the morning -- there goes the a.m.) here's a detailed but abridged version.

In a nutshell things are going well, albeit a bit more slowly than I would have liked. My goal has been to achieve a consistent %15 ROI with the rebate at a minimum and I have basically done that. I'm not going to get into much more detail on my finances.

Having just received Dave S.'s CD on HMI I will soon finally have a good betting plan rather than doing a straight % of bankroll, which I knew was inferior but I wanted to concentrate on my handicapping, time management, psychological aspects and organization at first (including family life) before taking on another major project.

As many have surmised I did need more time in the beginning for several reasons. First I had a major writing project due in early September that was worth $5K so THAT took priority. Second, I did struggle for much of the week at the Saratoga trip (before getting even on a $90 horse and huge exacta), which set me back psychologically. I finally decided that unlike some players I can't sit in a large group and socialize and play the ponies in a serious and professional manner. Next year, I'll realize that and use a modest bankroll dedicated to vacation funds not my horseplaying money. I don't know how CJ does it.

As I had a break in free-lance projects, I began playing semi-seriously in mid-September, starting with about a modest $30 a race (3% of a $1,000 bankroll) and concentrating on WP bets with a separate smaller bankroll for modest exacta as place bet wagers. A small amount I know but if I did well it would grow quickly enough.
Although I realize place betting is not as lucrative long-term as win betting my records show the results are good and consistent enough that the resulting psychological edge is worth the lesser ROI. Also, with a 4% and 7% rebate from Pinnacle, turning over my bankroll as much as possible is important. I don't want any long losing streaks that will deplete the amount I can bet thus lowering the rebate return.

Quickly some things I have learned:

-- The need for semi-frequent breaks of a few days to clear my head, review my records/handicapping and just vedge out.

-- The plan to play some nighttime tracks had to go. I need the time to prepare for the next day and review the afternoon's play. I have long envied CJ's ability to play 10 tracks in a day but can not duplicate it except for fun making small bets in a "War Room" type of environment.

-- Time is my worst enemy. Family demands have been the hardest. Since my wife works full-time -- and a lot of hours -- I have taken over most of the household chores and dealing with my 7 yr old daughter. She's in an afterschool program til 5:15 but it means my time from then until almost 9 p.m. is useless. After she goes to bed its walking the dog, cleaning up a bit, spending time with the wife and then finding time to recap the day's results, update the track profile, download the next day's card and with any luck catch "The Daily Show." Weekends are tough since it's family time even though Saturday is the best day to play. And I take some Sundays off to relax by watching football at a sports bar. And I have no "IT Department." If the printer doesn't work I have to spend the hour trying to fix it.

Also, I have put aside writing projects until March in order to juggle everything and develop a routine that would allow me about 15 hours a week to devote to my writing. Of course if things go VERY WELL I may not have to write, but I think psychologically it's good to know there is other income coming in.

Bottom line-- the bankroll is building nicely, my bet sizes have risen but only time will tell what happens when I reach major league wagering levels. Also since Saratoga I have not had any serious losing streaks (Small ones but nothing that has set me back. If I am losing at a track I just stop playing it.)

Best tracks for me so far? NYRA, Laurel,
Worst tracks -- Hawthorne, Calder, Fair Grounds
Surprisingly formful -- Beulah, Philly
Best Moment --- Besides the huge Spa exacta, winning the Trifecta in the BC Classic and seeing my skepticism about Bernardini validated in the face of some serious overhype. I haven't gloated anywhere -- until now.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=306586&highlight=Bernardini#post306586
Biggest Regret -- Not having enough time to complete the Horseplayer Mag blog contest.

I still think it would make a good reality TV series. :)

[DanG]

What a great use for this forum.

Thanks for sharing this ‘andicap and PA for providing the vehicle.:ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree....a very interesting read from andicap.....

[Red Knave]

Open, articulate and thoughtful.

Thanks Andy.

All the best for the New Year.

[jma]

Very interesting stuff Andi. That was a great read. Thanks for taking the time to write that. I wish you continued success in the new year.

[njcurveball]

I think this may be the best thread I have ever read on this board.

I look forward to reading about your continuing success!

I do think it would make a good reality show. Perhaps something similar to Project Greenlight where Horseplayers send in their respective plans to make money and finalists are selected.

Then after an "audition" week at the track, one person is picked for the show to follow for the next few months documenting their ups and downs.

I know I would tune in every week!

thanks again,
Jim

[joeyspicks]

Having just received Dave S.'s CD on HMI I will soon finally have a good betting plan rather than doing a straight % of bankroll, which I knew was inferior but I wanted to concentrate on my handicapping, time management, psychological aspects and organization at first (including family life) before taking on another major project.

I finally decided that unlike some players I can't sit in a large group and socialize and play the ponies in a serious and professional manner. Next year, I'll realize that and use a modest bankroll dedicated to vacation funds not my horseplaying money. I don't know how CJ does it.

As I had a break in free-lance projects, I began playing semi-seriously in mid-September, starting with about a modest $30 a race (3% of a $1,000 bankroll) and concentrating on WP bets with a separate smaller bankroll for modest exacta as place bet wagers. A small amount I know but if I did well it would grow quickly enough.
Although I realize place betting is not as lucrative long-term as win betting my records show the results are good and consistent enough that the resulting psychological edge is worth the lesser ROI. Also, with a 4% and 7% rebate from Pinnacle, turning over my bankroll as much as possible is important. I don't want any long losing streaks that will deplete the amount I can bet thus lowering the rebate return.

Quickly some things I have learned:

-- The need for semi-frequent breaks of a few days to clear my head, review my records/handicapping and just vedge out.

-- Time is my worst enemy. Family demands have been the hardest. Since my wife works full-time -- and a lot of hours -- I have taken over most of the household chores and dealing with my 7 yr old daughter. She's in an afterschool program til 5:15 but it means my time from then until almost 9 p.m. is useless. After she goes to bed its walking the dog, cleaning up a bit, spending time with the wife and then finding time to recap the day's results, update the track profile, download the next day's card and with any luck catch "The Daily Show." Weekends are tough since it's family time even though Saturday is the best day to play. And I take some Sundays off to relax by watching football at a sports bar. And I have no "IT Department." If the printer doesn't work I have to spend the hour trying to fix it.

Also, I have put aside writing projects until March in order to juggle everything and develop a routine that would allow me about 15 hours a week to devote to my writing. Of course if things go VERY WELL I may not have to write, but I think psychologically it's good to know there is other income coming in.

Bottom line-- the bankroll is building nicely, my bet sizes have risen but only time will tell what happens when I reach major league wagering levels. Also since Saratoga I have not had any serious losing streaks (Small ones but nothing that has set me back. If I am losing at a track I just stop playing it.)

Best tracks for me so far? NYRA, Laurel,
Worst tracks -- Hawthorne, Calder, Fair Grounds
Surprisingly formful -- Beulah, Philly
Best Moment --- Besides the huge Spa exacta, winning the Trifecta in the BC Classic and seeing my skepticism about Bernardini validated in the face of some serious overhype. I haven't gloated anywhere -- until now.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=306586&highlight=Bernardini#post306586
Biggest Regret -- Not having enough time to complete the Horseplayer Mag blog contest.

I still think it would make a good reality TV series. :)


Great followup

[andicap]

Thanks, everyone. Those who know me understand how measured I am in my life -- I don't even buy a camera without researching it for three months (I'm going with the Fuji S5200 BTW for the zoom).

Life just got a bit more complicated. As I have a couple of speeding tickets I had my license suspended for a month -- I have a restricted license for certain types of trips.
So of course that means when I do drive I have to be especially careful as another violation would mean many more months without wheels.
This morning I convinced my wife to let me drive home from the DMV and as I'm telling her I will be ultra-cautious for the next month, I turn the wrong way onto a one-way street!!

:blush:

[Tom]

You should probably stay off the roads at all costs. Stay home and, say, work on your blog! :rolleyes:;)

The light was starting to shine through the "energy clouds" and then you make me fo cold turkey!

Serioulsy, great thread...keep it up. I have nothing but faith in you.

[DaveP]

This is an excellent read.

Andi, I would suggest that you go through your records and replicate them in a Montecarlo Simulation and work out how many times a year you are likely to go bust.

I find this helps to calm the nerves better than simply thinking in a positive manner.

Good Luck whatever you do !

[classhandicapper]

Life just got a bit more complicated. As I have a couple of speeding tickets I had my license suspended for a month -- I have a restricted license for certain types of trips.
So of course that means when I do drive I have to be especially careful as another violation would mean many more months without wheels.
This morning I convinced my wife to let me drive home from the DMV and as I'm telling her I will be ultra-cautious for the next month, I turn the wrong way onto a one-way street!!:blush:

Let us know if you ever become a jockey so we can throw you out and bet on someone else. ;)

[Red Knave]

As I have a couple of speeding tickets I had my license suspended for a month -- You must have bought a new car since we last saw you. No way that little thing can go fast enough to get you a ticket! :D :bang: ;)

[andicap]

You must have bought a new car since we last saw you. No way that little thing can go fast enough to get you a ticket! :D :bang: ;)

Nope, same old 94 Saturn -- still going strong! But only about 110,000 miles.
Be 13 years old in May. Those things never rust because they were made of plastic. Thank God for airbags -- and Internet wagering.
;)
Good thing about the suspension is the car will last one month longer!

What really sucks about all this is that the final two points that put me over the edge came when I passed a stop sign two blocks from my home -- that after my mom kept warning me that the cops were all over this violation and to be extra careful.
Now how do I keep this suspension from her?? :blush:

[Red Knave]

-- that after my mom kept warning me that the cops were all over this violation and to be extra careful.
Now how do I keep this suspension from her?? :blush:Geez, aren't we always kids to or mothers??