sealord
07-09-2006, 05:05 PM
Saturday I took a trip down to AP briming with optimism and a few bucks to spend. I'd done my homework: rechecked track profile meticulously for biases and winning running styles, handicapped a few races ahead of time thoroughly, ran some numbers ala Sartin/Brohamer, and felt confident for the most part. But what a day down there!!!!
The average winners odds were 8.5 to 1! The favorite only won race out of nine, and was ITM in 5/9. Now, I'm no expert but I know enough to think this had to be out of the ordinary, at least to some extent. We had a nice warm, rain-free day down there with maybe a little breeze.
My intial thoughts center on AP talking about laying down some wood chips, but I hadn't heard much more about it, and the dirt looked normal. Also, the results on Friday seemed about on par to the previous weeks so I'm not really sure if they ever did put out the chips.
Anyway, I did manage to hit a few savers and the wifey grabbed a cheap tri box to make up for some of the damage I had done so it wasn't a total loss. And oh yeah, the beers were cold and going down easy so I guess it was a success after all.
To the regular players at AP like Valuist, Kenwood, Statman, etc. what do you make of this? Is this more normal than I'm making it sound like, or was this a 'crazy' day in which the track shifted from early speed to late speed? I bet the guys who picked up on the shift early on made a boat load of coin.
The average winners odds were 8.5 to 1! The favorite only won race out of nine, and was ITM in 5/9. Now, I'm no expert but I know enough to think this had to be out of the ordinary, at least to some extent. We had a nice warm, rain-free day down there with maybe a little breeze.
My intial thoughts center on AP talking about laying down some wood chips, but I hadn't heard much more about it, and the dirt looked normal. Also, the results on Friday seemed about on par to the previous weeks so I'm not really sure if they ever did put out the chips.
Anyway, I did manage to hit a few savers and the wifey grabbed a cheap tri box to make up for some of the damage I had done so it wasn't a total loss. And oh yeah, the beers were cold and going down easy so I guess it was a success after all.
To the regular players at AP like Valuist, Kenwood, Statman, etc. what do you make of this? Is this more normal than I'm making it sound like, or was this a 'crazy' day in which the track shifted from early speed to late speed? I bet the guys who picked up on the shift early on made a boat load of coin.