Lava Man

[Stevie Belmont]

Just did get his nose to wire for back to back Gold Cup wins. Nice horse. Just not sure if he as good as some would think. THe BC is thier goal, but it will be a diiferent story on that day. The turf is an option, since this guy is a solid turfer. Anyway you look at, class test will be enormous outside Cali. One thing you can say for sure is, possibly the greatest claim in horseracing history.

[MaleetziaPolice]

Lava Man stumbled at the start, but held on for the win. Whether the stumble made the race closer is the real question. Also, how will that stumble factor into his next race?

My question is, how did anyone pick Ace Blue to come even close based on his PP? I couldn't find anything credible.

[Stevie Belmont]

He stumbled in the Jockey Gold Cup as well. If he did not get hurt, it won't matter one bit in his next start. As to if it affected the closeness of the race, it's possible. It certianly did not help. You would have to figure he would have been much closer at the start without the stumble. I wheeled him in a 16 zacta. And hoped for the best.

[Stevie Belmont]

Bet cost 16 I should say. Ace almost won, and Stauffer called it as if he did, replay quickly dismissed his thought.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Lava Man stumbled at the start, but held on for the win. Whether the stumble made the race closer is the real question. Also, how will that stumble factor into his next race?

My question is, how did anyone pick Ace Blue to come even close based on his PP? I couldn't find anything credible.
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Ace Blue prior to yesterday was ITM 5 of the last 6 on "fast" tracks when under 10 opponents; had a bullet last workout.

[MaleetziaPolice]

______________
Ace Blue prior to yesterday was ITM 5 of the last 6 on "fast" tracks when under 10 opponents; had a bullet last workout.

Those races were in early to mid 2005 and at shorter distances than 1 1/4. How can we assume that after so many races away from a fast track, after a year of racing shorter distances without any success except for one show, and not having a comparable speed figures to Lava Man and Magnum, that this horse will just suddenly come back to form to what it once was?

To me, this seems as though we look at horses like robots who will just produce results according to a set of past conditions.

I like to look from the past to present and see how a horse is developing. From the numbers, this horse wasn't improving. Also, looking at a horse's past performances after a race to try to find clues seems to be as though someone is just looking for something to give them an answer rather than looking at the PP uninfluenced by emotions. I find that this happens more often with longshots, when the horse wasn't meant to contend. With horses with reasonable shots at winning, looking back at the PP to find clues is much more useful, IMO.

Ken, I'm not saying you're wrong because I know you have MUCH more experience than I do. I'm not disagreeing either, I'm just giving my opinion on how I look at the races. Criticism is expected and appreciated.

[stlseeeek]

more proof that the handicap division is weak

[kenwoodallpromos]

Of course I'm redboarding, not saying he figured- I'm just pointing out in addition to the horses-for-courses "fast track" angle and the 113 weight and bullet work, his last 4 scheduled "dirt track" losses were to Tricky Trevor, Borrego, and Buzzard's Bay; he lost by 1 length to Chocktaw Nation, and prior to that by more to Lava Man. Several of those were winners next out. He's not of that caliber, but this could easily be the 5% of races here the PLACE horse just does not figure.
I have discovered early that even redboarding to prove a horse had enough overlooked plus factors is not always successful. And it is more reasonable to me for a longshot to be running late than to duel then whole race and prevail.

[toetoe]

Let me guess. Did he scream, "Ace Blue ... YES!?" :D

I sure wish Victor and JHoll could win that one, even with a mediocre horse.

[Hank]

All in one, ranked Ace blue 3rd useing last race for all paceline selection,I could not see him but because of the fat price I played the lava man ace blue exacta, one way.:jump:

[classhandicapper]

I know he has won Grade 1 races and run a few Grade 1 Beyer figures, but I think the CA handicap division is a little weak the last 2 years. I rate Lava Man as more of solid Grade 2 or weak Grade 1 horse.

[JustRalph]

All in one, ranked Ace blue 3rd useing last race for all paceline selection,I could not see him but because of the fat price I played the lava man ace blue exacta, one way.:jump:

I bet you were sweating the photo! and Vic was no help

[DrugSalvastore]

I've yet to see enough of Vic Stauffer as a TVG analyst to formulate an opinion on him as far as that goes...

However, is there a more annoying race-caller out there than that guy?

Mike Battaglia is really bad---but I don't think he's as annoying as Vic.

Anyway, Lava Man had a trip excuse, and gave a good deal of weight away going 10 furlongs---he was better than the winning margin of a nose suggests.

I think everyone knows that he's a pretty nice horse on both surfaces. He's just about as good as anything in this division.

[KingChas]

Anyway, Lava Man had a trip excuse, and gave a good deal of weight away going 10 furlongs
.

Isn't this the second time he's had problems out of the gate?

If this continues as the races and fields become bigger.The results will not be the same for this horse. ;)

[Valuist]

I know there's horses who've run faster figures but you have to admire a horse who can win graded stakes (Gr 1 in this case) on both turf and dirt. There's also something to be said for a horse who can win a head bob; we hear so much about the Mineshafts of the world; horses who blow away tiny fields of suspect opposition by big margins. Yet just like in sports, what do they do when they're in a dogfight? John Henry was the perfect example of that.

[Stevie Belmont]

I would like to see Lava Man stay on the grass. He has already proved he loves it. Dont see why they could not ship out, and try some big turf events. Doubt they will go that route, but is viable option for a horse that has proven he likes the sod.

[banacek]

Imagine if you were the guy who lost the shake when Lava Man was claimed for 50 grand (see bottom of column)

http://www.sportofkingstv.com/hosstalk/2006/jul2106.html

[KirisClown]

Do you think LAVA MAN would have had the same kind of success without O'Neil?

[alydar44]

Why choose the grass when the dirt division is as weak as it is this year, with bigger purses than turf races?

[rastajenk]

Maybe to keep him on a steady schedule without shipping all over?

[Stevie Belmont]

Because the turf is a better surface for a horse then dirt. He shown he can handle it well. He might even be better on grass. There are some good turf events coming up that pay well. And they still could run in the big dirt races. He does both. I still think this guy will struggle outside Cali on dirt.