Typical Day of a Handicapper?

[MaleetziaPolice]

I'm new around here. I just got into horseracing and I'm really looking for a place to read some great discussions. So far, this seems to be the place.

I've always been interested in talking to other people and getting inside of their head, especially in fields that deal with business and risk-taking.

I'm not sure if I put this in the right forum, but I'm giving it a shot anyways.

My question is:

What is a typical day like for you when betting on horses?

[dav4463]

An average day would be to get the racing form and handicap the races between 10pm and 6am for a couple of hours. I work overnight, so I can handicap at work. Either way, I spend about 2 hours handicapping and writing down my potential bets.

I usually play night tracks, so I try to get to the track about 30 minutes before the first race in which I have a potential bet. I take my own paper with my potential bets written down on it and leave the racing form at home so I am not tempted to bet any other races. If I'm playing at home, I usually watch sports of some kind on TV between races. If I'm at the track I watch the females between races!

If I am off work, I go out after the races if I win and I still go out after the races if I lose! If I'm working, I pick up a racing form on the way out and do it all over again. Some nights when I go out, I will set the alarm and get up a little earlier and do my handicapping for the night races that usually gets done the night before.

I usually wake up about 1 pm after work and about mid-afternoon I check for late scratches and/or changes and at that time I log my results from the night before. Keeping records is important to me.

[MaleetziaPolice]

dav4463, thank you for responding.

How soon or late do you wait before you place your bets, and what do you do if a horse has its weight changed? How does the change of weight affect your pick?

[kenwoodallpromos]

If I am using a paper DRF, I read the stories of interest to me, then go to the page of all races and entrants listed on a racecard, and mark certain race types to not bet, and see if I remember some horses by name.
If I am handicapping for spot plays or place/show, I go through the track's PP's horse by horse without regard to race conditions first. This way A get a better sense of the PP's as a flow chart of the horse's recent career instead of concentrating on everything just relating it to today's race. Then I go back and look at the whole race geared to the current race.
I like to bet as late as possible to see the latest odds in case of odds lower or higher than I think they should be for the field size and competition level.

[Overlay]

An average day would be to get the racing form and handicap the races between 10pm and 6am for a couple of hours. I work overnight, so I can handicap at work. Either way, I spend about 2 hours handicapping and writing down my potential bets.

Amazing similarity with my former routine thirty years ago. I was just out of college living at home in Manhattan, and got a summer job on the attendant staff of the apartment building where we lived. When I worked nights on the front door, I'd go out about 10:00, walk up to the newsstand at 72nd and Broadway, and pick up the next day's Form. I'd come back, go on duty at 11:00, and after the heavy traffic was out of the way around 1:00 or 2:00 AM, I'd sit down and handicap the races for the next day. When I got off duty at 7:00, I'd go upstairs, grab a couple hours sleep, and then take the train out to Belmont. After the races, I'd come back, sleep a couple more hours and start over again.

[KingChas]

Do all intensive capping the night before,refuse to look at horses (biased) names,just by numbers ,do my own figs.Pace/SF's

Next day after scratches and changes etc... review my figs deep,horses trainers ..etc.(refreshed) ;)

Make Bets.

Races over relax with a cold one and and smoke after winning.

If losing day relax with a cold one and a smoke and usually think... woulda ,coulda shoulda..... :D

Beats the sh*t out of working! ;)

[Jeff P]

My typical race day...

Keep in mind that I'm in San Diego (Pacific Beach actually) so 7:00a for me is what? 10:00 for most of you...

I generally get started pretty early...

7:00a-7:15a Download files from Bris.

7:15a-9:00a Research: run IDEAS against databases. Adjust UDM (Spot Play) set as indicated based on positives and negatives discovered during research. This is ongoing and where my 95 percent of my real handicapping is done.

9:00a- Turn OFF cell phone and FOCUS. Load race cards and get scratches. Run daily html and text reports.

1. Set bankroll parameters and daily/session profit goal based on potential plays found on today's reports.

2. Write out potential individual UDM plays for the next two hours or so. I find the very act of writing them out by hand two hours ahead of time helps me to focus on the task at hand. Begin constructing tickets keeping today's pre-defined bankroll parameters in mind. My goal is to maximize the amount collected in those races where I am right about an individual UDM horse winning that race. My goal is also to get about 10 percent of the total bankroll in play - should I end up playing every selection - but no more than that. When the rare day comes when I am wrong about every single UDM play I accept losing on that day - but can start all over the next day with my bankroll 90 percent intact.

I play individual UDM horses only (generally 2-3 horses per race card) and back them to win their races only. I don't spread to other horses in my UDM races: I don't hedge. Hedging reduces risk but always at the expense of reducing long term profit. I love to construct double, pick-3, and pick-4 tickets in such a way that when one of my UDM horses wins a race I collect anywhere between 2 and 20 times the value offered by a win bet alone. I'm not afraid of solid favorites. I love turning $3.00 horses into $12.00 horses via a double or pick-three. And when I am right about a $40.00 UDM horse winning its race I CRUSH.

I should point out that I watch a lot of track video - post parades and warmups. When my UDM horse is in condition that's when I'll bet. If the horse is not in condition I'll pass. I can't tell you how much money I've saved by passing horses that looked good on paper (or on a computer report) that showed up on race day looking really really bad. Every once in a while one will fool me but the great majority that look bad on the track never run a step once the gate opens.

3. I make each play in sequence until one of two things happens:

A. Today's profit goal is reached

or

B. There are no more playable UDM horses.

My records over the past several months indicate that situation A happens for me approximately 8 days out of 10. A lot of days I never even get to make my best plays simply because I've reached my profit goal an hour or two into the day. A few years ago I would keep playing no matter what - but no more.

This approach has one benefit that I didn't realize until I started doing it. At the end of each day - win or lose - I come away with the genuine inner belief that my time has been VERY well spent. That's a feeling I never had when I'd play a monster 10-12 hour session trying to get out - even when I won big. So now, my time has become very valuable to me. I have no problem setting and reaching an objective and stopping for the day. There's always tomorrow.

BTW, thanks Karl for the idea.

1:00p - 8 days out of 10 I am essentially done betting at this point during the day. Time to hit the gym and grab some lunch afterwards.

2:30p - Time to sneak in a little programming, catch up on emails, etc. Who am I kidding? Some days the work ethic thing just goes out the window... I'll just walk down to the beach, do some body surfing, maybe grab a beer or two with some friends... if no one I know is around that's cool too... one thing I love about where I live is that there's always cute girls here on vacation... Note to PA - you really do need a Smirk icon... :cool:

Keep in mind that getting to where I'm at now... two and four hour workdays... winning consistently... well, it wasn't always like that... I had to WORK like hell to get to this point. And I mean work with a capital W. I'm talking monster coding and research sessions... 18 hour days... 7 days a week for months on end... What I'm enjoying now almost seems like a fair payoff for the effort I've put in... well... almost. :)


-jp

.

[banacek]

1. Set bankroll parameters and daily/session profit goal based on potential plays found on today's reports.


Jeff, would it be possible to explain a bit more about how you set your daily/session profit goals? The idea interests me greatly.

You won't risk more than 10% of bank in a day - that sounds wise. What % of bank would be your goal for the day? And do you flat bet until the goal is made or are the bets dependent on the strength of the wager?

(Of course if this is personal, that's okay.)

[dav4463]

dav4463, thank you for responding.

How soon or late do you wait before you place your bets, and what do you do if a horse has its weight changed? How does the change of weight affect your pick?

I usually bet as close to post time as possible. Weight changes mean nothing to me. The only changes I check for are late scratches to see if it changes a pace scenario. I also take note of negative or positive jockey switches. Also, if the weather is really bad......I might pass the races that day.

[dav4463]

Amazing similarity with my former routine thirty years ago. I was just out of college living at home in Manhattan, and got a summer job on the attendant staff of the apartment building where we lived. When I worked nights on the front door, I'd go out about 10:00, walk up to the newsstand at 72nd and Broadway, and pick up the next day's Form. I'd come back, go on duty at 11:00, and after the heavy traffic was out of the way around 1:00 or 2:00 AM, I'd sit down and handicap the races for the next day. When I got off duty at 7:00, I'd go upstairs, grab a couple hours sleep, and then take the train out to Belmont. After the races, I'd come back, sleep a couple more hours and start over again.

Nothing like handicapping at 2am or 3am while the rest of the world sleeps! It kind of makes you feel productive!

[slotterhaus]

A daily profit goal is simply an emotional crutch. If your wagering soul needs such a reckoning, so be it.

But thanks for the rare PA wagering detail. Most posters are remarkably vague regarding wagering philosophy. Bet structure is well over over 50% of my game and I believe handicapping and wagering need to be integrated for the vast majority of punters.

[Jeff P]

posted by banacek - Jeff, would it be possible to explain a bit more about how you set your daily/session profit goals? The idea interests me greatly.

You won't risk more than 10% of bank in a day - that sounds wise. What % of bank would be your goal for the day? And do you flat bet until the goal is made or are the bets dependent on the strength of the wager?
The rules I use for setting a daily goal aren't set in stone for me - yet - although I am getting there. I base the daily goal on both the number of plays and the strength of those plays. Let me try to explain my frame/mindset for doing this. At the very beginning of a day - a day with lots of quality plays ahead of me, my own confidence level about having a highly profitable day runs pretty high. After all there are LOTS of opportunities in front of me. As I move through the day I use up plays and the number of plays remaining ahead of me obviously becomes lower than at the start of the day - and my perceptions about remaining opportunity for a killer day - if I'm not already there - tend to decrease proportionately. Likewise, if the day itself is lacking in number of quality plays, my expectations about having a good day tend to be lower as well. Experience has shown me that my expectations, while they tend to run on the conservative side of what actually might be possible for me to achieve on any given day, are grounded at least somewhat in reality. At the start of the day, when lots of plays are still ahead of me, that's when I'm most open to trading risk for potential profit. When fewer plays are in front of me - and fewer opportunities exist - that's when I want to start tightening up - that's when risk becomes something I tend to want to avoid. The closest analogy I can think of is someone going through life investing for retirement. When he or she is young the window of opportunity to recover from mistakes is greater than when they begin to age. The more I play the more I tend to view a race day along the same lines.

OK. That's the mental frame from which I operate.

Let's say it's a Saturday. I've downloaded 12 race cards. Seven a.m. (East Coast) tracks and five p.m. (West Coast) tracks for the sake of argument. I'll start with the seven early tracks. Yesterday they were MTH, BEL, CRC, DEL, CD, WO, and AP. Running reports for those 7 cards I found 19 potential UDM plays. I know from my own experience that roughly half of those 19 plays are going to look ready enough during their post parades and pre-race warm-ups for me to want to play them. The other half are going to be under muscled, reacting negatively to equipment, or have other defects in behavior/appearance to the point where playing them would be senseless to me. So for the early tracks I'll figure on 10 plays. If the plays for those tracks appear to be of good quality - my output not only gives me the horse but the name of each of my models that is selecting each horse - then I'll often not even bother to load and look at the p.m. cards and just go with the a.m. cards - which is exactly what I did yesterday (Sat) and today as well (Sun.)

I'm looking at getting 10 percent of my bankroll into action on a full day and I'm looking at 10 potential plays. The simple math is 1 percent of bankroll on each play up to 10 times during the day.

The profit goal I typically set is the number of estimated plays divided by 2.5. So for a typical Saturday that comes to about 4 percent. On a typical Tuesday my goal might only be half of that. My goal during the day becomes one of playing until I find myself up X or more percent of bankroll at some point during the day. If and when that happens I stop taking on additional risk. I want to point out that the way I play I often find myself with several live double or pick three tickets going at the point in time when I stop making new plays and taking on additional risk. It isn't that unusual for me to cash one or more of these live tickets after I've stopped making new plays. And sometimes I've been very pleasantly surprised at the amounts some of these tickets end up paying. For that reason my biggest winning days over the past several months are equal to or larger than my biggest losing days which run about 10 percent of bankroll.

You asked if I flat bet. No, I do not.

My output not only gives me each model by name - it also gives me betting instructions in the form of the max percentage of bankroll I am willing to risk on that type of play. Obviously some of the models are stronger than others. And obviously sometimes I have multiple models pointing at the same horse. Part of the time I spend doing research each morning is devoted to determining what percentage of bankroll I'm willing to risk on the plays of which model. My single strongest model finds me willing to risk about 2 percent of bankroll on each play. The others range anywhere from 1/2 of 1 percent up to 1.5 percent.

Since you asked about flat betting it's only logical for someone else to ask if I use a progression. I don't and I seriously doubt if I ever will. For me bet size is determined by bankroll size at the start of the day and an estimate for the number of plays I think I'll make today.



-jp

.

[Jeff P]

posted by slotterhaus - A daily profit goal is simply an emotional crutch. If your wagering soul needs such a reckoning, so be it.

But thanks for the rare PA wagering detail. Most posters are remarkably vague regarding wagering philosophy. Bet structure is well over over 50% of my game and I believe handicapping and wagering need to be integrated for the vast majority of punters. If what you do works for you... great. As crazy as it sounds my goal when I play is no longer one of max profit or max bankroll growth. I simply want to win enough often enough to make it matter to ME. Setting a daily goal and hitting it day in and day out does that for me. It also gives me the added benefit of knowing that my time each day has been very well spent - and that's something I rarely came away with when I used to make every play I could find at as many tracks across North America as I could handle all day long. To sum it up, I want to play until I win - and then turn the computer off and go have a life.

BTW I would enjoy hearing some of your thoughts on bet structure.

-jp

.

[karlskorner]

Your welcome, I am delighted that it makes sense to you. A long long time ago, I like others was into the exotics plays, until I finally realized after watching the stretch run from the terrace of CRC that my 2nd and 3rd choice contenders were "eased" by the jocks, who realized they weren't going to make it and saved for the future. I am always happy when someone makes the "big hit" on a exotics play, means they will be stay around for awhile longer, unfortunately most give some or all of it back by the end of the day. But hey, they had a great day, my purpose from being there is to have a winning day.

[banacek]

Thanks, Jeff. Much appreciated!:)

[JimG]

I like others was into the exotics plays, until I finally realized after watching the stretch run from the terrace of CRC that my 2nd and 3rd choice contenders were "eased" by the jocks, who realized they weren't going to make it and saved for the future.

Very good point. That is precisely why I now concentrate on win betting, daily doubles, pick3's and pick 4's.

[Hank]

Great posts!:jump:

[slotterhaus]

You allude to the psychological realities of the game, something most players rarely ponder in favor of obsessive rumination over handicapping detail. If clearing a daily hurdle keeps you refreshed, focused and in the moment, you've reached an enviable mental port of call. Congrats.

I play nothing but single race exotics. Bet structure and handicapping are necessarily quite different in these vertical wagers than in the horizontal variety. More money is squandered in trifecta boxes than in any pool at the track with win candidates routinely grouped with scant regard to how the race will likely be run. A properly slotted tri recognizes that within every event there are really 2 races and completely different types of horses must be considered. The public is quite reliable in their assessment of win types but the top 3 placings are rarely filled by the 3 most likely winners. When they are, you get a $40 payoff. The under holes are where you get paid in single race exotics. Here the handicapping is often far more qualitative than quantitative and bet structure dominates.

I know the serious wagering threads around here tend to wither like a Lukas 3yo so I won't bore you with any more verbiage but, if you or anyone else should care, I'd be happy to elaborate.

[charlieparks53]

ANXIETY, ANXIETY AND MORE ANXIETY, FOLLOWED BY ANXIETY.

[charlieparks53]

Sounds like you have a great social life.

[charlieparks53]

dav4463, thank you for responding.

How soon or late do you wait before you place your bets, and what do you do if a horse has its weight changed? How does the change of weight affect your pick?

Remember weight does not affect the sprint races only distance. then you usually go to class.

[charlieparks53]

Do all intensive capping the night before,refuse to look at horses (biased) names,just by numbers ,do my own figs.Pace/SF's

Next day after scratches and changes etc... review my figs deep,horses trainers ..etc.(refreshed) ;)

Make Bets.

Races over relax with a cold one and and smoke after winning.

If losing day relax with a cold one and a smoke and usually think... woulda ,coulda shoulda..... :D

Beats the sh*t out of working! ;)

Spoken like a seasoned GAMBLER. :cool:

[charlieparks53]

[QUOTE=Overlay]Amazing similarity with my former routine thirty years ago. I was just out of college living at home in Manhattan, and got a summer job on the attendant staff of the apartment building where we lived. When I worked nights on the front door, I'd go out about 10:00, walk up to the newsstand at 72nd and Broadway, and pick up the next day's Form. I'd come back, go on duty at 11:00, and after the heavy traffic was out of the way around 1:00 or 2:00 AM, I'd sit down and handicap the races for the next day. When I got off duty at 7:00, I'd go upstairs, grab a couple hours sleep, and then take the train out to Belmont. After the races, I'd come back, sleep a couple more hours and start over again.[/QUOT

What a great great life. You must be proud of your accomplishments:bang:

[Valuist]

The public is quite reliable in their assessment of win types but the top 3 placings are rarely filled by the 3 most likely winners. When they are, you get a $40 payoff. The under holes are where you get paid in single race exotics. Here the handicapping is often far more qualitative than quantitative and bet structure dominates.



I agree 100%. Let's say you have a typical race and there's maybe 3 strong win contenders. One will usually prevail but the other two will likely be "broken" by trying to win and finish off the board while another horse, never a threat to win, picks up the pieces. When playing exactas, I usually only look at horses at 10-1 or more for the runnerup slot.

[andicap]

On those lucky days I don't have any free-lance work to do, my day will generally go something like so:


Night before -- download all my data with plans to print and begin going over pacelines. In actuality, I fall asleep watching SportsCenter after I download.

8 a.m. Up and at' em! Feed the dogs, quick perusal of the sports section, a shower and -- back to sleep. I'll handicap later.

10:30a Go online and read PA and a few other sites.

11a Uh-uh, running late. quick paceline selections, go to print out the pages.

11:15a Paper gets stuck in printer or some other malfunction. Curse, swear, smack printer, reboot three times.

11:45a Printer fixed. Pages printing out.

11:50a out of ink.

11:55a resume printing

Noon -- time to get scratches and adjust printouts for same.

12:15p -- Lunch!!

12:45p Haven't really looked over a race in detail yet -- better get started on the four tracks I'm following.

1:30p Oh crap, forgot to feed and walk the dogs.

3p Realize that a horse in the 2nd at Belmont completely fit my handicapping profile and paid $23 but I hadn't given the race much of a look.

4p Realize that I haven't done a single one of the errands/household chores I promised to my wife that morning. Panic.

5p Realize that while doing such chores I missed a $16 value horse at Churchill.

5:30p Pick up daughter at school/camp and vow to be more organized the next day.

:bang:

[Overlay]

What a great great life. You must be proud of your accomplishments:bang:

That was in my much, much younger (and single) days. No way I could handle a routine like that now (either physically or domestically). :D

[Tom]

11am - noon Dowload cards
noon-1pm.........Try desperatley to find scratches
1pm-2pm..........Draw lines through scratches at Belmont (LOL)
2pm-3pm..........Look for the second pager of the feature at Bemont, then realize it is a four horse field and there is no second page.

[charlieparks53]

That was in my much, much younger (and single) days. No way I could handle a routine like that now (either physically or domestically). :D

Are you getting ready for Del Mar. I love the town, the people, the atomosphire, food everything, I always do well at Del Mar. I do not spend that much time into handicapping I guess Iam just to lazy. I espcially do well in pick 4's and trifectas. Do you sit in a box and or do you know Dave the usher.

[charlieparks53]

That was in my much, much younger (and single) days. No way I could handle a routine like that now (either physically or domestically). :D

Are their any free reports that I could print that could help me when del mar starts. I feel the more you do the more you get confused. Look long look wrong. What the heck is a PA, most of you guys on here use so many tools to handicapp, my wife would kill me if I spent that much time playing or gambling. My wife hit a trifecta 3 years ago for 3500 dollars using her favorite number 8-9 so I played a 2 dollar trifecta 8-9with8-9 with all, bingo she hits. so much for hrs of handicapping.

[MaleetziaPolice]

Thanks for all of the replies. I haven't been able to devour everything, but I plan on reading from top to bottom very soon. I didn't think my question would generate so many replies.

The things I have read have blown my mind because I read it and then ask myself, "what did I just read?"

I do know I have a lot to learn though.

[KingChas]

1pm-2pm..........Draw lines through scratches at Belmont (LOL)
.

:lol: :lol:
Tom what color?

Charlie-"PA"="Pace Advantage"
Andicap goes online and checks out PaceAdvantage.com ;)

[Overlay]

Are you getting ready for Del Mar. I love the town, the people, the atomosphire, food everything, I always do well at Del Mar. I do not spend that much time into handicapping I guess Iam just to lazy. I espcially do well in pick 4's and trifectas. Do you sit in a box and or do you know Dave the usher.

Since I live in Oklahoma, Del Mar's a little out of reach for me in person. At least simulcasting lets me vicariously experience the tracks I haven't made it to yet.