Is it an overlay?

[dav4463]

If top rated horse shows a profit to win and place at odds of 4-5 through 7-2 and second rated shows a profit to win at 4-1 to 19-1 and third rated shows a win profit at 7-1 and up.....how do you bet? If only one horse in the race fits at his profitable odds level, it is an easy choice, but what if 2 or all 3 are at odds that my records show they will show a profit?

Example: top choice is 9-5, chart says win/place= profit
second choice is 6-1, chart says win= profit
third choice is 8-1, chart says win= profit

Obviously if I bet all three profitable situations, my top choice would be canceled out by the second and third choices losing. Should I only bet my second and third choice or forget the longshots and play win/place on the top choice, or is each race totally different.......should I decide on one horse or play two or even all three?

[Rick]

I'd be inclined to bet only the highest rated overlay, but the longer the odds are on it, the more likely it is that there are two or more overlays. Actually, the only way to know for sure is to test it since different methods will have different overlay characteristics.

[Dick Schmidt]

Dav,

I'd be inclined to bet the same way you did the research to determine the profitability of the three choices in the first place. What did you do when compiling your numbers? Do more of that.

Dick

[dav4463]

I guess I need to do a little more research. I just kept up with my horses ranked 1 through 5 picked and after each race wrote down how they did and at what odds. Now I need to go back race by race and see how many times there were more than one horse fitting the profitable odds. It will be a lot of work, but I suppose it is worth it........I hope I am on the right track anyway.

[rrbauer]

dav wrote:
Example: top choice is 9-5, chart says win/place= profit
second choice is 6-1, chart says win= profit
third choice is 8-1, chart says win= profit



Comment: The composite odds for this scenario are slightly better than 3/5. So the questions is, if you find your top three choices all in "profit" territory, will you get a win from any of them more than 60% of the time?

If so, head for the windows and do a dutch win bet. I would make the place bet independent of any win bet criteria.

Again, based on the scenario provided, you have eight possible outcome criteria to evaluate: ABC ABc AbC aBC Abc aBc abC abc; where, ABC relates to 1st 2nd 3rd choices, and case relates to profit/no profit. So for any of these scenarios where a profit is suggested in more than one category what are the composite odds of the individual "profit" categories combined?

For example, if the situation is aBC and the odds for B and C are 6-1 and 8-1, the composite odds are about 3-1. So in aBC situations do you get a winner from either B or C more than 25% of the time? If so, then your dutch play is profitable. (You might increase the play/no play cutoff percentage to something greater than the break-even percentage that I've used in this example to provide a fudge factor. Of course if you're playing with a rebate shop then break-even bets aren't all bad!)

Continue your record keeping and continue to evaluate your success rates by the n-choice criteria and build a playing scenario around what works for you.

[steve fierro]

Dave,

First off, kudos for researching the money aspects of your plays. Here are two items I think will help you get to your final answer.
1. Attach and odds line to your contenders. By doing this you will be able to narrow down the process that leads to your final wagering decision between the three.
Ex: You make contender a 2/1 B 3/1 c 7/2.
A is offered at 3/1. B is offered at 9/5 C. is offered at 7/2. A is the play. It can work the same way whith any of the three.
2. Keep records of all three situations. One overlay two or three. I think you will get many answers when you track these results. It is not as hard as you think and actually becomes fun after a while.
I know personally my best revelations have come from this research.
If you would like to get more in depth (this is a big subject) please feel free to e-mail me at steve@racedayusa.com.

[dav4463]

rrbauer, If I do a dutch win bet, would you suggest the same amount of money on each bet or more on the lower odds horse?
Sometimes I am inclined to dutch only the 2 higher odds horses, and this is where I am frequently burned!