QUANTUM PICKS PINNACLE AND BETCRIS 07/07/2006

[formula_2002]

Trying to get the "right" side of these play! ;)


DATE TRACKRACE NAME LINE PG# PIN BOOK % JCM BOOK % SURF EDGE PLAY
7/7/2006 BEL R7 DIANA 129 1 0.42 0.33 t 1.27 PLAY
7/7/2006 BEL R7 VERKH -145 11 0.57 0.66 t 0.86
7/7/2006 BEL R8 FABUL -136 4 0.52 0.73 D 0.71
7/7/2006 BEL R8 LUXEM 120 5 0.47 0.26 D 1.8 PLAY
7/7/2006 CD R10 OLE F 107 3 0.46 0.55 T 0.83
7/7/2006 CD R10 ROMNE -123 5 0.53 0.44 T 1.2 PLAY
7/7/2006 CD R7 STORY -104 8 0.49 0.61 T 0.8
7/7/2006 CD R7 RED L -112 9 0.5 0.38 T 1.31 PLAY
7/7/2006 CD R7 ROYAL -131 5 0.54 0.59 T 0.91
7/7/2006 CD R7 TONKA 115 7 0.45 0.4 T 1.12 PLAY
7/7/2006 CD R9 EASY 186 3 0.34 0.45 D 0.75
7/7/2006 CD R9 TAP D -202 6 0.65 0.54 D 1.2 PLAY
7/7/2006 HOL R2 HELMS 109 2 0.46 0.36 T 1.27 PLAY
7/7/2006 HOL R2 MULTI -125 3 0.53 0.63 T 0.84
7/7/2006 HOL R4 FLYIN -157 3 0.59 0.65 D 0.9
7/7/2006 HOL R4 JOHNN 141 6 0.4 0.34 D 1.17 PLAY
7/7/2006 BEL R1 TAKEN 103 7 0.47 0.36 T 1.3 PLAY
7/7/2006 BEL R1 MYSTIC -123 3 0.52 0.63 T 0.82
7/7/2006 BEL R4 SWEET -160 6 0.59 0.84 T 0.7
7/7/2006 BEL R4 MISS A 140 7 0.4 0.16 T 2.5 PLAY
7/7/2006 BEL R6 WHATS -160 6 0.59 0.49 D 1.2 PLAY
7/7/2006 BEL R6 CASSET 140 8 0.4 0.5 D 0.8
7/7/2006 BEL R8 FABULO -120 4 0.52 0.73 D 0.71
7/7/2006 BEL R8 LUXEMB 100 5 0.47 0.26 D 1.8 PLAY
7/7/2006 CD R3 HIGH S 105 4 0.46 0.41 D 1.12 PLAY
7/7/2006 CD R3 TOUCH -125 6 0.53 0.58 D 0.91

[ryesteve]

Wow... we have 5 races in common, and we're on the opposite side of all of them! Did you seriously reverse all of your picks??

[formula_2002]

Wow... we have 5 races in common, and we're on the opposite side of all of them! Did you seriously reverse all of your picks??
Yep..
are you doing Betcris also?

[ryesteve]

Yep, I've been doing both for a while.

Instead of reversing your picks, did you look to see what would happen when you restricted your picks to those races where there was a wider edge between your line and the matchup line?

[formula_2002]

the 1st at bel.. the "reverse" play lost while the "logical" play, which had a 1.20 edge won, with the Pinn odds about the same as the track.

The "reverse" play would have paid much more at the track than Pinnacle..

score; reverse play 0 for 1.

[ryesteve]

Look at the bright side: that was one of my plays :)

Seriously though, how are you computing that the track odds were the same as the Betcris odds? Mystic Ruler was -115, and the last I saw the toteboard, he was 9/5 and the opponent was 5-1.

[formula_2002]

Look at the bright side: that was one of my plays :)

Seriously though, how are you computing that the track odds were the same as the Betcris odds? Mystic Ruler was -115, and the last I saw the toteboard, he was 9/5 and the opponent was 5-1.
tote odds book % norm_book% match odds
5 0.17 0.32 2.14
1.8 0.36 0.68 0.47

I had mystic ruler line at -123
If he went off at 1.8-1 and the other at 5-1 i get 1/(odds+1) as .17 and .34 respectively.
that normalizes to .32 and .68

(1/.68)-1= 47 cents -1 odds (track odds)
-123 odds = 81 cents-1 odds (betcris odds) much better than I thought..Agree?

[ryesteve]

Yep, those numbers look a lot more in line with the edge I'd perceive given the line and those odds...

[formula_2002]

the 1st at bel.. the "reverse" play lost while the "logical" play, which had a 1.20 edge won, with the Pinn odds about the same as the track.

The "reverse" play would have paid much more at the track than Pinnacle..

score; reverse play 0 for 1.


The reverse plays did poorly, while the "logical" plays did well.
6 wins, 10 plays, +$89, $1231 played.

pinn expected win were 5, mine 6 and the public was 5.
The sum difference between the track odds and the pinn ods was 13 cents. (Pinn payouts were 13 cents better on the dollar than the track.

I now have my results program just where I want it and will be taking a second look at the "logical" plays.

I have about 60 pinnacle cards to go through.
Should have good analysis for those plays by Tomorrow. I have attached an excel file for yesterdays "logical" results.

[ryesteve]

Taking a pass on today? The 1st at Bel just now was a strange one... +135 on the 8/5 favorite. Stranger still was that I was expecting a flood of money to come in and shift the line, but it was only a trickle.

[formula_2002]

Taking a pass on today? The 1st at Bel just now was a strange one... +135 on the 8/5 favorite. Stranger still was that I was expecting a flood of money to come in and shift the line, but it was only a trickle.


off to party.. good luck today