ARL 7-7

[kenwoodallpromos]

Race #6 Cl, $20k, 6f****

#7 Maddy's Bobcat 10-1 Longshot Win good early speed, won 5 of 14 sprints in 2005, tr going back there.

#1 Firststatedeposit 7-2 Win won 3 in a row prior to last loss, excuse please!

#3 Stephie's Brite 9-2 Win won 3 prior to last loss.

[bigmack]

Ok KWP – Don’t know how you chose the race but:

Storm the Beach comes in after a jog down in Iowa trained by DMatthews
who is a bit lackluster @ AP - Coupled with Campbell they are 3 for 31

The remaining field are Fighting Illini -

A popular claim, Stefie knows how to hit the board and has strong enough pace numbers to wiggle free of the other six.

Early pace from Red River tires and sets up for the pressing nature of Stefie, Firststatedeposit, and Storm

I don’t see much of a case to be made for Maddy

GL

[kenwoodallpromos]

I did not pick based on pace, so you could very well have the winner!
I picked based primarily on odds and what I percieved to be a simple % chance of winning.
I am saying IMO Maddy is an overlay at 10-1. Maybe true odds would be 11-1, maybe 7-1?
My other 2 picks were based on 3 wins in a row, hoping the last race for each was with a good excuse.
My picks are intended as my point of view for pointing out a limited number of factors for people. Many times my top pick win or place, sometimes they run very far back.
If you take the odds on the 3 as a fraction, 10-1 (9%), 9-2 (18%), and 7-2(22%), that gives you 49% chance of winning with the 3 horses combined.
I think that is acceptable!

[traynor]

First Race
#1 Miss Cady to win
:) Good Luck!

[kenwoodallpromos]

The only horse you named that I did not was Storm The Beach, who won once in 10 tries barely, 4th last not close, and coming back after 1st time bute after only 17 days and is 5-1 while the fav is 7-2 so the M/L maker sees basically a toss-up. No thank you, I will stick to my picks! Good luck to you!

[bigmack]

Don't get me wrong - I wouldn't touch the race. It's a toss up amongst four and the prices will be spread throughout, offering little value without specificity of selection.

I enjoy dissecting any race - play or not.

[traynor]

#1 Miss Cady WON at $4.40.
Given the qualifications and relative probability, the mutuel was generous.
;) Good Luck

[kenwoodallpromos]

Don't get me wrong - I wouldn't touch the race. It's a toss up amongst four and the prices will be spread throughout, offering little value without specificity of selection.

I enjoy dissecting any race - play or not.
I love playing or advising multiple win best whenever possible! I am the multiple longshot guy!

[kenwoodallpromos]

Race #8 Optional $37k, 6f****

#4 Miss Classified 2-1 Win low payoff, but still a deal!

#6 Aroarable 5-2 Win won or lost in a photo 5 of last 9.

#1 Guiding Star 5-1 Longshot Win led 9 of last 12 at start position, 8 of last 12 st 2nd call, track is Extremely fast!

Race #9 Alw, $33k, 1 mile Turf

#6 Sidcup 2-1 Place not worth a win bet today placed 3 of last 4.

#4 Rotary 4-1 Show showed 2 of last 3.

#1 Iza Chili Bean 30-1 Not much, but better than the 30-1 M/L! can work fast, no wraps, won 4 of 28 similar.

[bigmack]

I am the multiple longshot guy!
Define longshot

[timtam]

I 'm sure he means when a 1/5 goes off at 2/5 you can really play alot

of horses in a race using that premise.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Race #6 Cl, $20k, 6f****

#7 Maddy's Bobcat 10-1 Longshot Win good early speed, won 5 of 14 sprints in 2005, tr going back there. PLACED

#1 Firststatedeposit 7-2 Win won 3 in a row prior to last loss, excuse please!

#3 Stephie's Brite 9-2 Win won 3 prior to last loss. WON $11.60 EX $116.00