racing result to ponder from Belmont 7/2/06

[joemcd]

Sunday,July 02,2006,7th race: #1 Octave .90-1 ; #6 Desire To Excel 24.25-1, both fillies with almost identical records:broke maiden first time out of the box,well backed as favorites in their respective races,and broke maidens at same distance. Favorite earned a 94 speed rating and the longshot a 102 speed rating!(brisnet pp's).Exacta with favorite was $131.00 and win price of longshot was $50.50. Yes,I had it! The difference was the favorite was trained by Todd Pletcher and created a Black Hole sucking in most of money out of the pool! There is no excuse for losing money in circumstances like this if you handicap this type of race.Doesn't happen often but it does happen!

[Zman179]

Ugh, your first ever post and you pat yourself on the back with it. :ThmbDown:

[Sailwolf]

Ugh, your first ever post and you pat yourself on the back with it. :ThmbDown:


Well there is another thread about this board going around and the message in that thread is there are lessons to be learned from various people.

My take from his post is when there are two contenders who are projected to be the winners, select the long shot not the favorite.


Mark Cramer (author Kinky handicapper) would agree.

[Zman179]

Well there is another thread about this board going around and the message in that thread is there are lessons to be learned from various people.

My take from his post is when there are two contenders who are projected to be the winners, select the long shot not the favorite.


Mark Cramer (author Kinky handicapper) would agree.

I see where you're coming from, but his statement, "There is no excuse for losing money in circumstances like this if you handicap this type of race" just rubs me the wrong way. As if everybody should see what he sees.

[joemcd]

Didn't mean posting as a pat on the back but as something to be cognizant of.I have seen through the years many handicappers who ignore such information.

[Zman179]

Joe, you're absolutely right on what you said. If you handicap a race and you come down to two horses that have an equal shot at winning, and one is 4/5 and the other 25/1, you have to be an imbecile to favor the 4/5 shot. But you would be surprised how many horseplayers become afraid of the odds, as if the public knew what the hell they were doing.

Maybe I just woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.

[Sailwolf]

But you would be surprised how many horseplayers become afraid of the odds, as if the public knew what the hell they were doing.

Maybe I just woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.


No, you did not woke up on the wrong side of the bed today

I can think of several posters who would made the same comments. Lets see t.. s... b.. .... :lol:

After many races that the public is right, there are some circumstances where the public is wrong, but the challenge is to know when the public went off on the deep end or down the wrong path.

[Overlay]

However admittedly skillful any individual trainer may be, as the saying goes, it's the horse that does the running. It all comes down to relative wagering value.

[Sailwolf]

However admittedly skillful any individual trainer may be, as the saying goes, it's the horse that does the running. It all comes down to relative wagering value.


Totally agree:ThmbUp: