QUANTUM PICKS PINNACLE MATCHUPS, 07/02/2006

[formula_2002]

date track race name line PG# "E" SURF PLAY
7/2/2006 BEL R7 OCTAVE -145 1 0.575 D PLAY
7/2/2006 BEL R7 SHES ROUGHI 129 5 0.425 D

7/2/2006 BEL R8 REBEL REBEL -112 3 0.509 T PLAY
7/2/2006 BEL R8 WILLARD STR -104 5 0.491 T

7/2/2006 CD R9 MOCHA QUEEN 107 1 0.467 T PLAY
7/2/2006 CD R9 PRETTY JANE -123 6 0.533 T

7/2/2006 HOL R3 PROPOSED 112 4 0.457 D
7/2/2006 HOL R3 STAR PARADE -128 5 0.543 D PLAY

7/2/2006 HOL R3 HEALTHY ADD 112 1 0.457 D PLAY
7/2/2006 HOL R3 HOLLYWOOD S -128 7 0.543 D

7/2/2006 HOL R5 FOURTY NINE -154 6 0.591 T PLAY*
7/2/2006 HOL R5 HENDRIX 138 7 0.409 T

7/2/2006 HOL R5 THE TIN MAN -140 2 0.566 T PLAY*
7/2/2006 HOL R5 WILLOW O WI 124 3 0.434 T

7/2/2006 HOL R8 ATTIMA -136 5 0.559 T PLAY
7/2/2006 HOL R8 WAIT A WHIL 120 7 0.441 T

[ryesteve]

A question about implementation: how long does it take you to make these selections? I ask, because by the time you post, the lines are pretty out-of-date. For example, I agree that 49's Son is a best bet at -154, but so did everyone else, which is why it jumped to -181 within an hour or so of the line being posted. I didn't get in on time myself, and I was wondering if your setup would've been agile enough to get in on it.

[formula_2002]

A question about implementation: how long does it take you to make these selections? I ask, because by the time you post, the lines are pretty out-of-date. For example, I agree that 49's Son is a best bet at -154, but so did everyone else, which is why it jumped to -181 within an hour or so of the line being posted. I didn't get in on time myself, and I was wondering if your setup would've been agile enough to get in on it.

I want to get the lines as soon as possible after they have been posted by pinnacle.
I think these lines were down loaded last night.

The idea is to make the actual play as soon as my min odds are sufficiently exceeded by Pinnacle's (and now, Betcris lines) and not to wait until I post picks here on PA.

If I get serious about making real bets, I hope to be able to automatically download the lines from Pinnacle and Betcris sites, run it through my software, and bet the overlays. Once set up, the program can run 24/7

I did a simmilar thing for the brisbet web site.
I was able to interogate the web site and make a bet if my odds line was exceeded by the toteboard odds with 1 min to post.

That little notion gave rise to betitandforgetit.com
Hope to have that running some day :bang:

Right now, with minium autmation on my part, I can compare my lines to Pinnacle in about 7 minuets.

The progam takes less than 1 min to run, the rest of the time (6 minuets) is set up time...

[ryesteve]

The idea is to make the actual play as soon as my min odds are sufficiently exceeded by Pinnacle's (and now, Betcris lines) and not to wait until I post picks here on PA.
Of course... my question was more about how long it takes you to determine what your acceptable odds are. In my case, there are some manual components involved... doing one individual race doesn't take long at all, but if I'm cycling through a card, and making bet decisions in sequence, and then actually making some bets, by the time I get to a race on the bottom (such as the 49's Son race), it's not unlikely that an hour or so may have passed... by which time, I may have missed the boat. It sounds like your setup is speedier than that, but still, it'd probably be interesting if you actually simulated the bet process to see what lines you'd actually be getting.

[formula_2002]

do you think I could get, say a $200 bet down within 1 minuet of getting the line and still get those odds(the line)?

Would $200 change the line at say 11 pm..(the day prior to race day?)

thanks

[Jeff P]

posted by formula_2002 - do you think I could get, say a $200 bet down within 1 minuet of getting the line and still get those odds(the line)?

Would $200 change the line at say 11 pm..(the day prior to race day?)

thanks I've noticed matchup lines are more easily affected the night before - when the smaller limits are in effect - than the following day or after they've raised the limit. $200.00 the night before can move a line 5 or 6 points. The same $200.00 on race day might move the line only 1 or 2 points or sometimes not at all.

-jp

.

[formula_2002]

posted by formula_2002 - I've noticed matchup lines are more easily affected the night before - when the smaller limits are in effect - than the following day or after they've raised the limit. $200.00 the night before can move a line 5 or 6 points. The same $200.00 on race day might move the line only 1 or 2 points or sometimes not at all.

-jp

.

Can you make a $200 single bet the night before?

[Jeff P]

You can only make single bets up to whatever the posted limit is, usually what - $150.00 or so? So you play $150.00 and go back in for more - after the immediate line change of course. Every now and then - maybe on bigger race days - the early limits are higher.

-jp

.

[formula_2002]

Finals
4 wins in 7 plays, $+$17, $922 played

expected # winners was 3.81

A "dutch" or book percentage would have returned

4/(3.81*1.03) =1.019 0r 1.9% profit..

[formula_2002]

Finals
4 wins in 7 plays, $+$17, $922 played

expected # winners was 3.81

A "dutch" or book percentage would have returned

4/(3.81*1.03) =1.019 0r 1.9% profit..

correct total played to $887 and expected winners to 3.72