Greyhound

[Ponyplayr]

Does any one know of a greyhound handicapping software?
I would like to play the dogs in between thoroughbred races.

[Tom]

I think they have one or two at Gambler's Book shop in Vegas - they have a website.

[Ponyplayr]

Thanks I'll give them a look.

[Pace Cap'n]

Software does exist but it is manual entry as no comma delimited files are available for downloading.

At least that is my understanding.

[wes]

Try QuickDog, have a 30 day trial.

wes

[Maxspa]

Ponyplayr,
There are a couple of software programs offered on e-bay. I don't know whether the quality is good or not but they have been advertised there for some time. Look under handicapping-all categories and you'll find it quickly.
Maxspa

[Figman]

Quickdog is real good!

But the bumps in the road like dogs impeding dogs with no human interference is real bad.

[Overlay]

Quickdog is real good!

But the bumps in the road like dogs impeding dogs with no human interference is real bad.

Reminds me of a discussion I had with a guy who played both the horses and dogs. I said I didn't bet the dogs because of the lack of any human control over them once the race began. He told me that that was precisely the reason why he did bet the dogs.

[Drifter1]

Try www.dogone.com. Free trial, no manual data entry.

[wes]

DOGONE not bad for $20.00. Can get some good action out of the program with a little study of the picks for a few days at each track.

For $19.95 per month download handicap sheets for most tracks from hottracktips.com.

good luck
wes

[nomadpat]

I've been toying around with QuickDog and it looks pretty sharp. I like the Supertuning - backfitting to weigh the factors. Kind of cool to see a dog program do track variants :) I admit I can't handicap my way out of the paper bag at the doggies, but will be playing some with this program. $85/year for all tracks is a nice price. Thanks for the suggestion!

[traynor]

Pico Publishing sells files for all the tracks ($83.40 a year). Unfortunately, there are numerous errors, omissions, and other problems. Rosnet has free files, and a number of applications parse the Rosnet text files, so data entry is not an issue.

The application you use depends whether you want to bet one track, two or three, or all you can get. It also depends on the developer--greyhound apps are not exactly state-of-the-art, and most are based on the same simplistic relationships Robert Homberger defined 25 years ago.

Greyhound racing attracts some very serious bettors, mainly because of the trifecta and superfecta possibilities. To compete takes a bit more than a simplistic number crunching app and some downloaded files. However, the rewards are substantial and more than worth the effort.
Good Luck!

[traynor]

nomadpat wrote: <I've been toying around with QuickDog and it looks pretty sharp. I like the Supertuning - backfitting to weigh the factors.>

Tenga cuidado. Understand that when you "backfit" you are adjusting the values so they would have picked a couple of longshots--if you had made the adjustment before the races those longshots won. It is not unusual to have a group of greyhounds pile up at the first turn to let the only dog too slow to make it to the turn with the others "emerge" as the 40/1 winner. Try factoring that into a "backfitting" application and see how well it does on future races.
Good Luck!

[Pcon04]

when i played the dogs until the pools became to small.I used

the greyhound predictor.Its a manual program but it worked real well

I read this and it tried it .FUNNY itactually worked on win xp..It was written in the 90's kind of weird.

if you do a google search it will point you to a site but its not the

right one.This one is from miami fla and written by a dr at u of miami..


PCON

[Ponyplayr]

Try www.dogone.com (http://www.dogone.com/). Free trial, no manual data entry.
I downloaded the software then downloaded the files from PBKC.

Did the first four races. Useing the Class for finish I chose the #8 for the win. For the Place Dog I went with the Average Finish and went with the #7
Bet them in the Exata and hit. Then I did the smart thing and Quit!!!

Not sure if I can repeat that performance but it made for a fun day.
Thank you all for your responses.

[trying2win]

Here's some more info for anyone interested in greyhound racing:

1. GREYHOUND RACING FREE, LIVE VIDEO LINKS

http://www.onlineracing.tv/

http://www.dairylandgreyhoundpark.c...acing/video.htm

http://www.hollywoodgreyhound.com/live_video.html

http://www.jaxkennel.com/liveracing.asp

http://www.pbkennelclub.com/liveracing.asp

http://www.tucdogtrak.com/


2. GREYHOUND RACING TOTEBOARD (For several tracks)

http://www.livegreyhoundodds.com/


3. GREYHOUND BETTING SITES (These are just a couple that I know of. There are possibly a lot more)

www.ctotb.com

www.racebook.com


T2W

[trying2win]

GREYHOUND RACING FREE PROGRAMS AND RESULTS are usually available at each Greyhound track's website. I believe some GREYHOUND FREE PROGRAMS AND RESULTS are only available at www.rosnet2000.com ....At this latter website, you have to sign up for a free membership first.


T2W

[traynor]

The format used by Rosnet2000 is standard, same for most tracks, and generally more dependable than www.greyhounds.com (http://www.greyhounds.com). Rosnet does not cover a number of tracks that are quite profitable for wagering. Several shareware, freeware, or very low-cost applications parse the text files from Rosnet to "automate" data entry. The http://www.paydog.com/ site is sanctioned by the Racing Commission of Oregon, and is relatively stable.
Good Luck

[wes]

HotTrackTips.com

This is a greyhound betting tips & analysis for about 20 tracks. Also a hottrack tips spreadsheet for viewing the text file download. Cost is $19.95 per month. The tip sheet prints out two or three races per sheet.

Posted for information only have no connection with HotTrackTips.com


wes

[traynor]

HotTrackTips.com
This is a greyhound betting tips & analysis for about 20 tracks. Also a hottrack tips spreadsheet for viewing the text file download. Cost is $19.95 per month. The tip sheet prints out two or three races per sheet.
Posted for information only have no connection with HotTrackTips.com
wes

The problem is essentially the same as for thoroughbred and harness "selections." They put together an algorithm that picks some chalk, then "automate" the app to churn out page after page of "selections" that generally replicate the program selections at the track. For $19.95, if you just want numbers to bet on, throw darts. You will probably get more winners at better prices. The same thing goes for the cheapo harness and thoroughbred "subscriptions" that give you "ratings" for every horse at every track every day--no human has looked at the data in weeks, or possibly months. And then only when the app breaks.

In this field, as in almost no other, the saying that "you get what you pay for" is true. That doesn't mean that pricey ratings are necessarily better--it means that unless a human analyst is doing something every day, all you get is computerized drivel. And any selections that involve actual analysis, rather than "data processing" cost a whole lot more than $19.95 a month.

The upside, of course, is that they are worth it.
;) Good Luck

[hjr1809]

Has anyone ever used software from this website. http://www.geocities.com/pender_noriega/index.html

[sq764]

Does any one know of a greyhound handicapping software?
I would like to play the dogs in between thoroughbred races.
The one time I played greyhounds when we were in Connecticut last year, I used Quick dog.. Pretty easy to use and not a bad program overall.. And free trial was nice :-)

I ended up going to the live greyhound races up there.. Hit a little super and it was a good time/

[Ponyplayr]

Has anyone ever used software from this website. http://www.geocities.com/pender_noriega/index.html
$500 for the software....Don't think so! :ThmbDown:

[Ponyplayr]

The one time I played greyhounds when we were in Connecticut last year, I used Quick dog.. Pretty easy to use and not a bad program overall.. And free trial was nice :-)

I ended up going to the live greyhound races up there.. Hit a little super and it was a good time/
I have been watching them race at the Palm Beach Kennel Club for about a year now and they are fun to watch.
With so many Thoroughbreds races having only 5-6 horses in them it's hardly worth the effort to handicap them. I thought I would add a few dog plays and see if I could boost my earnings. So far so good.
Still learning and trying out different software's..DogOne is the one I am playing with now but I intend to give the others mentioned on this thread a shot as well.

[traynor]

The big issue is not the cost of the software, or even the ease of downloading race data. It is "What does it do?" In most cases, you can gain a considerable advantage with a pocket calculator; skip M, D, C, and B races, bet only A and AA, and average final time of the best two of the last four races. Period.

It won't give you plays in every race, but it will pick a substantial number of winners, often at decent prices at tracks where "class" is overbet (greyhounds going up in class are routinely dismissed as "outclassed" at the higher grade).

"Handicapping software" usually doesn't do much more--there are a number of class rating and speed rating formulas that are almost universally used, and all are based on the same basic arithmetic operations performed on the last half dozen or so races.

Shoreline Star is one of the most profitable greyhound tracks in the country, followed closely by Plainfield.
Good Luck at the Greyhounds

[Ponyplayr]

I just downloaded Quick Dog..Looks OK. A few quick questions.

What is the Knife method? Morgan method? If you purchase the software do you get a manual?
TIA

[incoming]

manual is located here quickreckoning.com/qdoug.htm

[lefthandlow]

Plainflied is CLOSED been so for years!!!

i used penders 1st program stay away it was written

in gwbasic i think in 1992 it was on a 5inch disk.NG stay away

i was a dog player but the pools are now so small you have to bet a quinella or tri or super.Lincoln pays the owners the best cuz they have slots but the pools are still a joke..LL

[trying2win]

How do the track takeouts on the greyhounds, compare with those on the thoroughbreds? Generally higher?... Generally the same...or Generally lower?


Thanks,

T2W

[traynor]

Plainflied is CLOSED been so for years!!!

i used penders 1st program stay away it was written

in gwbasic i think in 1992 it was on a 5inch disk.NG stay away

i was a dog player but the pools are now so small you have to bet a quinella or tri or super.Lincoln pays the owners the best cuz they have slots but the pools are still a joke..LL

I just checked Gordon's Pico site, and he still lists Plainfield as a file option. Has it really been closed that long? I thought it was being simulcast to Phoenix fairly recently, but I could be wrong. Lincoln is OK, but really small mutuel pools. Pender Noriega is still selling the same application?

[Pace Cap'n]

For the ponies, try Aksarben.

[Jingle]

Traynor

Plainfield is gone--about 2 yrs. Our casinos are right down the road and they couldn't compete.

[Ponyplayr]

How do the track takeouts on the greyhounds, compare with those on the thoroughbreds? Generally higher?... Generally the same...or Generally lower?


Thanks,

T2W
Not sure what it is at other Kennel Clubs here at Palm beach it's %19 WPS and %25 for everything else. Check out the results charts for the payouts, they can be huge.

[traynor]

For tonight's (Friday 7/14) race at Palm Beach, a couple of decent spot plays might be:
Race 6, key 1 with 4-5-6
Race 12, key 1 with 2-5-6

If you are not familiar with greyhound wagering, it may be best to just stick to exactas, which are generally more productive than quinielas.
;) Good Luck

[Ponyplayr]

For tonight's (Friday 7/14) race at Palm Beach, a couple of decent spot plays might be:
Race 6, key 1 with 4-5-6
Race 12, key 1 with 2-5-6

If you are not familiar with greyhound wagering, it may be best to just stick to exactas, which are generally more productive than quinielas.
;) Good Luck
This will be my first attempt with Quick Dog and yes I am still learning.:confused:

Race 6 Exata 1-2/7 Tri Box 1 2 7
Race 12 Exata 7-5/3 Tri Box 7 5 3

[traynor]

This will be my first attempt with Quick Dog and yes I am still learning.:confused:

Race 6 Exata 1-2/7 Tri Box 1 2 7
Race 12 Exata 7-5/3 Tri Box 7 5 3

A suggestion. Before you start betting serious money, you might want to check the results for boxing trifectas for a few weeks. It is almost as popular as boxing quinielas in Florida, with lower returns than it would seem from the results of a few races. You might even consider jumping right past the tris and using the exacta models as the front end of superfectas.

[Ponyplayr]

Race#6 results

7 Hornpopperharry 9.60 5.80 4.40 Quin (3-7) $54.20
3 Titan Lightfoot 11.60 12.80 Perf (7-3) $134.60
8 Don L Mypalellen 8.20 Tri (7-3-8) $637.00
5 Wtd Carl Tri-box (3-7-8) $318.50
Super|[7-3-8-5]| $2,698.00

[Ponyplayr]

Race#6 results

7 Hornpopperharry 9.60 5.80 4.40 Quin (3-7) $54.20
3 Titan Lightfoot 11.60 12.80 Perf (7-3) $134.60
8 Don L Mypalellen 8.20 Tri (7-3-8) $637.00
5 Wtd Carl Tri-box (3-7-8) $318.50
Super|[7-3-8-5]| $2,698.00
Race12
1 Team Sc Iron 7.60 4.80 2.20 Quin (1-5) $17.60
5 Kickin Back 5.00 2.40 Perf (1-5) $33.60
7 Solitary Arthur 2.20 Tri (1-5-7) $106.40
4 Tempo Lansdale Tri-box (1-5-7) $53.20
Super|[1-5-7-4]| $386.00 Pick-4 (8/8/2/1) 4of4 86.20
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ________________________________

[traynor]

Palm Beach 6th Race OUT
Palm Beach 12th Race #1 WON $7.60 1-5 Exacta $33.60
;)

[traynor]

You may find it more difficult to make money betting on greyhounds than on thoroughbreds. Throughbred handicapping is selection-driven, while both greyhound and harness racing are wager-driven. Wagering choices are on the latter types of races are substantially more creative and free-form, less structured, and require considerably more decisions than thoroughbred wagering.

Relatively competent handicappers of thoroughbred races seem to fail miserably at handicapping harness and greyhound races, declaring them "indecipherable," "unpredictable," or "fixed." The races are only races--it is the performance and actions of the other racing fans that must be deciphered to win. To wager profitably at harness and greyhound races takes "agility"--the quality of adapting rapidly to dynamic, changing situations. Conversely, thoroughbred race wagering is more "comfortable" than harness or greyhound race wagering, and more in tune with people who prefer "a slower pace of life."

The bottom line is that either greyhound races or harness races requires more effort and thought on the wagering side than many experienced thoroughbred handicappers may be willing to invest (or capable of investing) to make a profit. Pari-mutuel racing is a competition, not a crossword puzzle to be "solved." Understand that, and greyhound racing and harness racing offer opportunities that most thoroughbred handicappers can only dream about.
Good Luck

[trying2win]

Hmmm...over 1700 views on this thread. Can I conclude there is a fair amount of interest on this topic? Time for GREYHOUND RACING to be added to the 'CONTESTS + OTHER INTERESTING RACING TOPICS' section?

Even I have shown a bit of interest in betting on the greyhounds lately. I read about the DOG ONE greyhound handicapping software on this thread...downloaded it... and back-tested out the fully-operational demo on 9 days of greyhound racing from the Tucson greyhound park (July 17 - July 26/06 inclusive). Some interesting results. In my test, it seems some of the lower total points' greyhounds did better in ROI overall, than the softwares' top 2 picks. By the way, if one has not found out yet, the DOG ONE greyhound software demo, let's you download program data for the first four races only of any card.

I just opened an additional betting account at LINK2BET.COM recently, so I could send in a few bets late in the evening to places like the Tucson greyhound track. Apparently, LINK2BET.COM is one of the few places that a Canadian can open an account, and one's bets go directly into the pools of American-based race tracks, whether it's thoroughbred, harness, or greyhounds.

The bets on the greyhounds are just for a few, small fun bets...nothing serious. I still plan on concentrating my main handicapping and betting efforts on the thoroughbred and harness races.


T2W

[Ponyplayr]

T2W...You may want to test Quick Dog I prefer it to Dog One.

[trying2win]

T2W...You may want to test Quick Dog I prefer it to Dog One.

PONYPLAYR:

Thanks for the tip. Only problem is that any old links I found pertaining to QUICK DOG greyhound software or its vendor, don't work anymore. Even the vendor's email address doesn't work anymore either.

I checked links for QUICK DOG here at the PACE ADVANTAGE site and did a GOOGLE search too.


T2W

[trying2win]

--Perhaps some advantages on betting the greyhounds:

1. It appears free greyhound programs and/or racing data files are the standard in this industry, and are available at either each greyhound track website, or at the ROSNET 2000 site. You don't get free programs and/or data files for thoroughbred tracks. You don't get free programs for most harness tracks either. And you don't get free data files for harness tracks as well.

2. It appears free live video is a standard feature at a lot of greyhound tracks too.

3. No human intervention to influence a greyhound race while its running. This is unlike thoroughbred races, where you don't know sometimes for example, if the horse you bet on is 'just out for the exercise' in a particular race. Or another example in the harness races, where some drivers might be perceived as 'playing some games' in a race.



Perhaps some disadvantages of betting the greyhounds:

1. Small mutuel pools. One sizable bet could nullify your perceived advantage.

2. Lack of availability of quality greyhound handicapping books? (I could be wrong on this one though....that's why I put a question mark on it).

3. Lack of quality greyhound handicapping software? (Again I could be wrong in this area as well).

--Pretty well being a neophyte in the area of greyhound handicapping, I've got a lot to learn, if I really want to enhance my knowledge and gain an edge in this sport.


T2W

[traynor]

Ratings for Saturday's races at Flagler will be posted shortly as part of the Free Samples.
Good Luck

[K9Pup]

--

Perhaps some disadvantages of betting the greyhounds:

1. Small mutuel pools. One sizable bet could nullify your perceived advantage.

2. Lack of availability of quality greyhound handicapping books? (I could be wrong on this one though....that's why I put a question mark on it).

3. Lack of quality greyhound handicapping software? (Again I could be wrong in this area as well).

--Pretty well being a neophyte in the area of greyhound handicapping, I've got a lot to learn, if I really want to enhance my knowledge and gain an edge in this sport.


T2W

1. Yep the pools are REAL small. Don't be misled by backtesting $$$ amounts. Win pools struggle to reach $500 per race. Your $2 bet can change the payout by 20-40 cents.

2. Plenty of books available, quality is in the eyes of the buyer.

3. No software at the level of some of the horse programs. The number of data elements for the dogs is far less than those for horses.

Welcome to the world of greyhound racing!!

[Ponyplayr]

PONYPLAYR:

Thanks for the tip. Only problem is that any old links I found pertaining to QUICK DOG greyhound software or its vendor, don't work anymore. Even the vendor's email address doesn't work anymore either.

I checked links for QUICK DOG here at the PACE ADVANTAGE site and did a GOOGLE search too.


T2W
Try this link.

http://www.quickreckoning.com/dogsmenu.htm

[Figman]

Although I use my own software for the horses, I use Quick Dog exclusively for the greyhounds. There is nothing better! I've used it for years.

[trying2win]

FIGMAN:

That's great to hear that you like using QUICK DOG greyhound software. I hope you're making lots of profits using it. Have you got an onlink link to the vendor, so anyone interested can make further inquiries about this product? I could only find links that don't work anymore. Has the vendor gone out of business?

Thanks,

T2W

[Figman]

Just click the link in the post before mine (PONYPLAYER'S) to get to it.

[trying2win]

FIGMAN:

Thanks very much for pointing out the link to me. When I saw your first post, I neglected to scroll up and see the other posts by K9PUP and PONYPLAYR. Thanks to all of you for your comments on the greyhounds. And thanks to PONYPLAYR for the link to the QUICK DOG software.


T2W

[traynor]

Ratings for Saturday's races at Flagler will be posted shortly as part of the Free Samples.
Good Luck

Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of the Free Samples of Graded Ratings posted for Flagler. ;)

[traynor]

Although I use my own software for the horses, I use Quick Dog exclusively for the greyhounds. There is nothing better! I've used it for years.

One issue should be noted by prospective QUickDog users, that I am sure you have managed to work around if you have been using it successfully for years. Any software that fails to truncate outliers--an issue explored at length on the thread "A Cautionary Note" in this forum--will generate misleading "models" of potential profitability. Specifically, mixing one or two high mutuel payoffs in a small sample will badly skew the "predictions."

It is a deficiency that is not limited to QuickDog; it is shared by most (if not all) commercial handicapping software. For thoroughbred software developers, the consensus seems to be that a huge database "eliminates" the problem. Unless you find a way to cope with the situation, a few unusual mutuels mixed in with a sample of less than 5000 or so races will generate "silly numbers" rather than predictions.

For example, if you have a database of 5000 races, then break it down by track, or grade, or distance, your sample size may be a very small percentage of that 5000 races, and produce unreliable forecasts of potential profit. For hobbyists, or $2 bettors, it is not an issue. For anyone serious about wagering on greyhound races, it is.

[traynor]

1. Yep the pools are REAL small. Don't be misled by backtesting $$$ amounts. Win pools struggle to reach $500 per race. Your $2 bet can change the payout by 20-40 cents.

2. Plenty of books available, quality is in the eyes of the buyer.

3. No software at the level of some of the horse programs. The number of data elements for the dogs is far less than those for horses.

Welcome to the world of greyhound racing!!


Phoenix Greyhound Park, Saturday, July 29
Atendance-1140 Handle $434,697.00
On Track: $148,368.00 Out Of State: $225,858.00
Your $2 bets can be made without disrupting the mutuel pools. Your $100 bets, too.

[K9Pup]

Phoenix Greyhound Park, Saturday, July 29
Atendance-1140 Handle $434,697.00
On Track: $148,368.00 Out Of State: $225,858.00
Your $2 bets can be made without disrupting the mutuel pools. Your $100 bets, too.

How big do you think the WIN pools are at PH? Last night the handle was about $24k per race. How much of that do you think was in the WIN pool? $2,000? Obviously you picked the busiest night of the week. Tuesday night the handle at Phoenix was only $213 k.

You throw $100 into a $2,000 win pool and you can quickly turn a 5-1 dog into a 3-1.

How about these handles from Saturday afternoon?
Corpus - $41,619
Flagler - $99,114
Gulf - $88,882
Naples - $103,855
TriState - $36,595
Wichita - $12,984

[traynor]

How big do you think the WIN pools are at PH? Last night the handle was about $24k per race. How much of that do you think was in the WIN pool? $2,000? Obviously you picked the busiest night of the week. Tuesday night the handle at Phoenix was only $213 k.

You throw $100 into a $2,000 win pool and you can quickly turn a 5-1 dog into a 3-1.

How about these handles from Saturday afternoon?
Corpus - $41,619
Flagler - $99,114
Gulf - $88,882
Naples - $103,855
TriState - $36,595
Wichita - $12,984

That must be why only $2 bettors bet at Corpus Christi, Gulf, Naples, TriState, or Wichita. "Small win pools" sounds more like an excuse than anything else--the pools are proportional to the amount being bet. Why would someone beat his or her brains out chasing chalk at Saratoga ($200 on $3.20 winner to make $120) when they can get the same return with a $10 (and often $5) exacta ticket at Flagler or Tampa?

I have heard the "argument" about mutuel pools being "too small for real bettors" for years, and it usually turns out that the ones arguing are just picking the wrong greyhounds. If you pick the right greyhounds, you can make as much profit at smaller tracks (on much smaller wagers) as at tracks with bigger pools. The same thing goes for thoroughbred and harness races; the most profitable tracks are not necessarily the same tracks that hobbyist handicappers prefer.

Finally, what is wrong with 3/1, if I am making the bet? Because someone else will get 5/1 if I don't bet, I should pass the race?

[Ponyplayr]

Here are results for PBKC...You don't have to bet large to make money on the dogs.

http://www.pbkennelclub.com/PDFfiles.asp?myday=0731A&key=C

[traynor]

Here are results for PBKC...You don't have to bet large to make money on the dogs.

http://www.pbkennelclub.com/PDFfiles.asp?myday=0731A&key=C

Exactly. If you are doing it for money, the results of a small bet at a small track can often return substantially more than a large bet at a large track. If you are betting $200 a race, it can get hairy really fast if you lose a string. Betting $10 or $20 at dog tracks gives you a huge amount of leverage, is easy on the nerves, and can often turn up a major profit.

In one of Beyer's presentations, he referenced a $67 (or close) exacta that he had selected as if it were a wonder. Greyhound bettors do that just about every day, and only consider exactas over $100 even worth mentioning.

Granted, the mutuel pools at some greyhound tracks are small. Those tracks offer every bit as much opportunity for profit (or better) than Saratoga, Del Mar, or Woodbine. And, most of the time, a lot more fun. Especially if you like cashing large tickets that risk relatively small amounts.

[K9Pup]

That must be why only $2 bettors bet at Corpus Christi, Gulf, Naples, TriState, or Wichita. "Small win pools" sounds more like an excuse than anything else--the pools are proportional to the amount being bet. Why would someone beat his or her brains out chasing chalk at Saratoga ($200 on $3.20 winner to make $120) when they can get the same return with a $10 (and often $5) exacta ticket at Flagler or Tampa?

I have heard the "argument" about mutuel pools being "too small for real bettors" for years, and it usually turns out that the ones arguing are just picking the wrong greyhounds. If you pick the right greyhounds, you can make as much profit at smaller tracks (on much smaller wagers) as at tracks with bigger pools. The same thing goes for thoroughbred and harness races; the most profitable tracks are not necessarily the same tracks that hobbyist handicappers prefer.

Finally, what is wrong with 3/1, if I am making the bet? Because someone else will get 5/1 if I don't bet, I should pass the race?

I wasn't making an "excuse" at all. Personally I play the small tracks, I also play the big ones. My point is/was that new "dog" players should be aware that "backtesting" on the dogs can be very misleading BECAUSE of the small pools.

NOTHING is wrong with a 3/1 winners UNLESS your play was based on making money with 5/1 winners. If your backtesting shows a 20% profit on winners that average 5/1 and you then actually make just a $2 bet into these pools, the payouts can drop as much as 30 cents. So your 20% profit is now closer to 5%.

IMO the only way to make money with the dogs IS to play exactas, tris and supers until that started this DIME super crap. Even in those pools bettors should be aware that back results can be misleading.

[K9Pup]

Here are results for PBKC...You don't have to bet large to make money on the dogs.

http://www.pbkennelclub.com/PDFfiles.asp?myday=0731A&key=C

No, you just need to have the right numbers on your ticket. Palm Beach ISN'T a small track.

Check out Ebro or even better Tucson results. Tucson has many races with NO place payouts for the winners. Also be aware that some of those $500 tri payouts are the ENTIRE pool. Nothing wrong with playing these tracks, in fact there are many reasons TO play them.

[JimG]

3. Lack of quality greyhound handicapping software? (Again I could be wrong in this area as well).
T2W

I strongly recommend the book Greyhound Handicapping by Richard Weiss (an intermediate level book) if you want to get serious about betting the greyhounds. Personally, I do not feel software is the way to go with greyhound racing. A very different game from horse racing. Factors I feel are important in greyhound racing:

1)Know the inside/outside track bias.

2)Bet greyhounds that are running from a post position favorable to their running style.

3)Watch past races to get to know the running styles of the dogs at the track you follow.

4)Early speed is very important.

5)Only 6 running lines are available to most dog players. Find a way to have more running lines available to you to better assess a dog's chances.

6) Once you start to bet, concentrate on quinellas and trifectas instead of w/p pool due to woefully low handle in the w/p/s pools. A $5 bet will bring down your odds in those pools at many dog tracks.

In summary, I think greyhound race handicapping/betting is much more artful than scientific. Probably would/does not appeal to many on this board. You may be surprised to know there are professional greyhound bettors (defined as making a living betting greyhounds) who would not touch a horse race.

Jim

PS...I am all in favor of an area here to discuss greyhounds.

[Ponyplayr]

I strongly recommend the book Greyhound Handicapping by Richard Weiss (an intermediate level book) if you want to get serious about betting the greyhounds. Personally, I do not feel software is the way to go with greyhound racing. A very different game from horse racing. Factors I feel are important in greyhound racing:

1)Know the inside/outside track bias.

2)Bet greyhounds that are running from a post position favorable to their running style.

3)Watch past races to get to know the running styles of the dogs at the track you follow.

4)Early speed is very important.

5)Only 6 running lines are available to most dog players. Find a way to have more running lines available to you to better assess a dog's chances.

6) Once you start to bet, concentrate on quinellas and trifectas instead of w/p pool due to woefully low handle in the w/p/s pools. A $5 bet will bring down your odds in those pools at many dog tracks.

In summary, I think greyhound race handicapping/betting is much more artful than scientific. Probably would/does not appeal to many on this board. You may be surprised to know there are professional greyhound bettors (defined as making a living betting greyhounds) who would not touch a horse race.

Jim

PS...I am all in favor of an area here to discuss greyhounds.
Good post:ThmbUp: Bias is one of the most important factors in greyhound races.

[sq764]

If they only had software that pointed out which dogs were going to get taken out of the race in the first turn.

I swear I have bet like 20 dog races in my life and in 19 of them, my dog(s) got plastered around the first turn.

[JimG]

If they only had software that pointed out which dogs were going to get taken out of the race in the first turn.

I swear I have bet like 20 dog races in my life and in 19 of them, my dog(s) got plastered around the first turn.

Hi Scott,

Believe it or not...with a lot of practice, study, and observation a handicapper can become pretty proficient at avoiding dogs likely to get "plastered" at the first turn. However, just like in horse racing, it is a lot of work to become profitable at greyhound racing and there is no free lunch or shortcuts to success that I am aware of.

Jim

[K9Pup]

If they only had software that pointed out which dogs were going to get taken out of the race in the first turn.

I swear I have bet like 20 dog races in my life and in 19 of them, my dog(s) got plastered around the first turn.

That is why most good dog playes put a lot of emphasis on early speed. If you dog is leading going into the first turn it is less likely to get bumped.

[trying2win]

JIM G:

Thanks for the tips on greyhound racing. I've just been testing out QUICK DOG handicapping software. Very neat program.

It was more of a curiousity thing about playing the greyhound races. I've been testing out the PHOENIX AND TUCSON tracks in the evenings lately. I set the parmeters in QUICK DOG for what values I want, then I scan through the PHOENIX AND TUCSON better-quality races. I try to find no more than 4 races per card for some bets, generally using the top pick of QUICK DOG (but not always, because there are some post positions I don't like betting on. In that case, I may go down a pick or or two from the top QUICK DOG SELECTION.

I've just been sending in some small place bets so far. Might have to check out the quinella or exacta possibilities though. Will be interesting to see how the selections fare out over the next while, during the trial test with QUICK DOG software.

It's very interesting to see that there's been over 2400 views on this GREYHOUND thread so far.

I'd be interested in a greyhound racing section too.


T2W

[JimG]

JIM G:

Thanks for the tips on greyhound racing. I've just been testing out QUICK DOG handicapping software. Very neat program.

T2W

Your very welcome. Good luck with your dog program.

[traynor]

If they only had software that pointed out which dogs were going to get taken out of the race in the first turn.

I swear I have bet like 20 dog races in my life and in 19 of them, my dog(s) got plastered around the first turn.


A number of tracks used to publish the time of 1/8 call. Unfortunately, it was such an obvious selection method that nearly everyone used it. A greyhound with average 1/8 times of 7.1 in a field where the next best was 7.3 was almost unbeatable. The mutuels on such selections dropped to $2.20 and $2.40 until the tracks wised up and took out the time to the 1/8.

Consider the advantage of handicappers who either hand time the first turn, or use videos to extract that same information. If I remember the statistic, it is something like 80% of all greyhound races are won by the dog in the lead at the 1/8. Hmmm. ;)

[K9Pup]

Consider the advantage of handicappers who either hand time the first turn, or use videos to extract that same information. If I remember the statistic, it is something like 80% of all greyhound races are won by the dog in the lead at the 1/8. Hmmm. ;)

The number is actually 50-60% of the dogs that win have the lead at the 8th call. About 80% of the winners are in the top 3 at the 8th. Still a very meaningful piece of information to have.

[traynor]

I strongly recommend the book Greyhound Handicapping by Richard Weiss (an intermediate level book) if you want to get serious about betting the greyhounds. Personally, I do not feel software is the way to go with greyhound racing. A very different game from horse racing. Factors I feel are important in greyhound racing:

1)Know the inside/outside track bias.

2)Bet greyhounds that are running from a post position favorable to their running style.

3)Watch past races to get to know the running styles of the dogs at the track you follow.

4)Early speed is very important.

5)Only 6 running lines are available to most dog players. Find a way to have more running lines available to you to better assess a dog's chances.

6) Once you start to bet, concentrate on quinellas and trifectas instead of w/p pool due to woefully low handle in the w/p/s pools. A $5 bet will bring down your odds in those pools at many dog tracks.

In summary, I think greyhound race handicapping/betting is much more artful than scientific. Probably would/does not appeal to many on this board. You may be surprised to know there are professional greyhound bettors (defined as making a living betting greyhounds) who would not touch a horse race.

Jim

PS...I am all in favor of an area here to discuss greyhounds.

And when you are ready to do it seriously, generate files on breaking styles of the greyhounds on your circuit of interest. Greyhounds all have a preferred spot on the track, and instinctively jump toward that area of the track at, or shortly after, the break.

Well, so what? Watch for a race in which a decent entry (not the best, but not the worst) is in Box 1. Then look for a "wide slasher" with early speed in Box 2. The boxes open, #2 immediately jumps out and forces all the entries outside into a collision or slowdown to avoid a collision. By the time the other entries sort it out, #1 is down the track, around the turn, and almost unbeatable.

Look for the reverse scenario, with a "rail slasher" in Box 7. The greyhound in Box 8 has a greatly improved chance of winning, regardless of any other factors (class, speed, consistency, whatever).

Once you understand what you are looking for, it is fairly easy to spot the wide slashers, rail slashers, wide runners "trapped" on the rail, and a number of other equally profitable scenarios.

[gjones6794]

I spent 1994 - 2001 at the Gulf Greyhound dog track. When Texas finally legalized horse and dog racing, the dog track opened first. This was my first experience with any kind of racing. Being an accountant, I easily became facinated with racing. A local guy started timing the greyhound races. He
would then sell the fraction times. They were broken out into early speed (box to the finish line), then pole time (to the 1/8 pole) and late speed (to the finish line). With the input of some "horse racing experts", one which was using Synergy racing software, we developed a sophisticated dog racing program utilizing the fractional times. When horse racing started in Texas, I used my dog racing programs as the basis for my horse software. As I learned more about horse racing, I programmed those concepts into the dog program including the fulcrum and power numbers. Alias, all good things end and the guy selling the fractional times quit selling them. My program was so dependent on fractional times that I had to estimate them based on grade and final time.

Our primary bets were comingled superfecta bets as they offered the most return for the investment. In 2001 my friend passed away and that was that.

I would still play Gulf Greyhound if I could bet on line, but Texas law (supported by the racing industry) makes it illegal to bet on Texas tracks (dog or horse) unless you goto the track and bet. Thankfully, I can play any other horse track as long as it is not a Texas track. Hence, if you don't live with in driving range of a track, you are shut out. Can you imagine shutting out your home state from having any interest in your product unless you can drive to the track and place your wagers? And they wonder why in state handle is down. I hope parking fees and hamburgers sales off set the lost handle. I would really hate to see racing leave Texas but with this kind of mentality controlling the industry, I don't see it growing. Maybe it can hang on.

Anyway, You can love a dog with a lot of heart just as you can love a horse. I have seen thousands of people cheer as the big closer P's Rasin Cain closed from 10 lenghts out to run down Sweet Theme (a great early speed champion) on a labor day stakes race about 10 years ago. I enjoy both dog & horse racing. The concepts are the same, early speed, pace, late speed, etc. If you can get the tapes and the proper video recorder you can create your own fractional times and get a big advantage over practically everyone else. Hopefully, some day I will be able to support Texas horse and dog racing on line. Then I will resurect my dog racing program. Until then, have fun playing the dogs.

[traynor]

R02
999 5 Pnj's Cupid
943 1 Lostlands Czara
938 8 Kd Key West
882 7 Guilty Verdict

R03
999 4 Kebo Krystal
950 8 Pat C Westwardho
921 1 Daves Preston
908 2 Sol Endeavor

R04
999 3 Wayward Wind
968 1 Www Girlpower
965 7 Lostlands Seleba
886 8 Snagless Sally

R05
999 6 Dodge And Zoom
976 3 Catch Debussy
924 4 Condo Clubhouse
867 5 Jawa All Free

R06
999 2 Hornpopperharry
716 3 Mr. Kid Rock
714 6 Leveled Out
623 5 Pat C Red Berry

R07
999 5 Miss Fenwick
925 8 Tk Camden
769 2 Motif
766 4 Bummy

R08
898 3 Glb's Stargazer
861 2 Hurricane Ya Leh
835 5 Turbo Sweet Amy
820 4 Go Go Lightening

R09
999 5 Bohemian Pancha
901 1 Jimbo Dreamangel
876 6 Lil Sportster
786 8 Ben Pepper

R10
999 3 Pat C Vein
984 8 Law's Digger
941 7 Breezin Taz
901 1 Cagin Conartist

R11
999 3 Jt Oxbow Rick
952 6 Waytogo Billy
919 1 Our Shelby Lynne
852 4 Zamora

R12
915 5 Jawa John
871 6 Kaycar Daredevil
871 7 Red Thunder
865 1 Se's Bankonbuggy

R13
999 5 Great White Duke
941 2 Davey Pepper
921 3 Dolly Dear
842 8 Tapmar Locust

R14
885 1 Think Out Loud
879 7 Seattle Spirit
813 6 Kool Kovu
804 2 Bb's Got Milk

R15
999 1 Glb's Slammer
961 8 A Bar Realtree
869 2 Kebo Klink
845 3 Senorita Lolita

[Ponyplayr]

PBKC race#2..6-3/4..Tri 6-3/4-3/4

[hracingplyr]

Here is one for u dog players out there, my buddy is a dog player and he was in this site. this guy will sell u his home study course for $2,700.00!!! i almost fell off my chair, so enjoy. www.theracingconsultant.com

[K9Pup]

Here is one for u dog players out there, my buddy is a dog player and he was in this site. this guy will sell u his home study course for $2,700.00!!! i almost fell off my chair, so enjoy. www.theracingconsultant.com (http://www.theracingconsultant.com/)

That is Marcel, the racing consultant. I think he charges about $15k for onsite personal training these days. Some of his trainees are VERY happy with the results, others are not.

Heck some people here charge $300/month for their picks.

[traynor]

Poor. A couple of winners. A couple of small quinielas and reverse exactas turned a profit betting first two. Not much else.

[trying2win]

I've been using LINK2BET.COM for sending in bets on the greyhounds. They don't list anything about rebates on their website. When I asked them about rebates, they asked me to send in an email to tell them an estimate of how much per week I would likely be wagering. Then they would tell me how much of a rebate they could offer. I told them that I estimated that it would be in the $100 to $125 a week range to start. I got a prompt reply telling me they could offer me a 5 % rebate, and if was to increase my turnover they could offer a higher percentage rebate. That's not too bad a rebate offer, considering most of the bets I send there are on the greyhounds, with the odd bet on thoroughbreds and harness. They add the rebate to your account once a week.

Do U.S.-based greyhound betting services offer any rebates? Just curious.

I think I'll contact LINK2BET.COM again, to see what level one has to wager to get this next highest level of rebate.


T2W

[Ponyplayr]

Poor. A couple of winners. A couple of small quinielas and reverse exactas turned a profit betting first two. Not much else.
Today was even worse for me. Winners coming from both inside and out.

I was getting the second and third place dogs consistently. Didn't cash a ticket all day!

[K9Pup]

[QUOTE=Ponyplayr]Today was even worse for me. Winners coming from both inside and out.

QUOTE]

I'm curious, does it surprise you that the winners came from different boxes???

[Ponyplayr]

[QUOTE=Ponyplayr]Today was even worse for me. Winners coming from both inside and out.

QUOTE]

I'm curious, does it surprise you that the winners came from different boxes???
Yes..the only box that failed to get a win was the #5.For several weeks the middle to outside had the edge and you could pitch the inside dogs. Not now, the track is fair and the winner can come from anywhere.

Equal footing leads to collisions at the first turn. That is what has been my problem this week, I have become the KISS of Death for every dog I have bet.:bang:

[K9Pup]

[QUOTE=K9Pup]
Yes..the only box that failed to get a win was the #5.For several weeks the middle to outside had the edge and you could pitch the inside dogs. Not now, the track is fair and the winner can come from anywhere.

Equal footing leads to collisions at the first turn. That is what has been my problem this week, I have become the KISS of Death for every dog I have bet.:bang:

Sometimes our perceptions don't match reality. I just looked at June statistics for Palm. The 8 box DID win more than the other boxes, but it only won 14.5% of the time. Next highest was the 1 box at 13.8%, followed by the 2,6,4,5,3,7.

IMO track bias is a minor factor in determining winners. At most tracks the 1 box will win more races, but I've never seen it be more than 17-18%. There are factors with MUCH more importance.

[Ponyplayr]

It was the intermittent rain during that period that made the inner part of the track soft, which gave the middle and outside posts an advantage. I was playing the rain. Now I have to figure out how to play a fair surface.
Today 11 of the 15 races were won by dogs in the 1-4 boxes. Sounds easy except every inside dog I picked turned into a Hockey Puck at the 1/8 pole.:bang:

[K9Pup]

Well it is just my opinion, but if you are making your MAIN criteria which box a dog is in then you are headed for doom. You MAY find days where a certain box wins a lot, but IMO you will always be chasing your tail trying to figure out which box that is.

[Ponyplayr]

Well it is just my opinion, but if you are making your MAIN criteria which box a dog is in then you are headed for doom. You MAY find days where a certain box wins a lot, but IMO you will always be chasing your tail trying to figure out which box that is.What I have identified is an inside bias. I do not bet boxes.
I have eight days left on my 30 day trial of Quick Dog. In order to get the daily variants and speed ratings you have to purchase the thing. It might be worth buying just to see how much difference the variants make.

[K9Pup]

What I have identified is an inside bias. I do not bet boxes.
I have eight days left on my 30 day trial of Quick Dog. In order to get the daily variants and speed ratings you have to purchase the thing. It might be worth buying just to see how much difference the variants make.

So how are you using this "bias"? Like I said before, the track bias has SOME impact on the winners, but very minor.

Variant adjusted times WILL improve things, not sure I would put much weight on the QD speed ratings.

[traynor]

Well it is just my opinion, but if you are making your MAIN criteria which box a dog is in then you are headed for doom. You MAY find days where a certain box wins a lot, but IMO you will always be chasing your tail trying to figure out which box that is.

A LOT of what is perceived as "bias" is related to the preferred running style of the entries. The notion of a track bias assumes that all greyhounds run exactly the same way (convenient for software developers and amateurs to assume). That is totally unrelated to the realities of greyhound racing, and attempts to overly-simplify a complex situation.

Consider a thoroughbred equivalent; the first 3 races on the card are all won by precocious front runners. Does that mean an "early speed bias" exists? Nope. All it means is that the front runners in the first 3 races got to the finish line before the others in the field.

When people combine computers and greyhounds (and computers and thoroughbreds, for that matter) there is a pronounced tendency to "interpret" what seems to be information, but is little more than random noise.

If you really want to calculate track bias, it has to be relative to preferred running styles of the individual entries. Do a Weiss and go back 20 races for each greyhound, mark the boxes from which each won or finished up close. For most greyhounds (factoring out class moves, of course) there is a distinct pattern. When that pattern is known and factored, and THEN you see anomalous results, you MAY be seeing a bias. Not likely, but possible.

Most of all, try to avoid getting caught in the switches, changing your approach every few races, or every day, based on the most recent results. That is NOT the way to turn a profit at greyhound racing.
Good Luck;)

[trying2win]

Firstly, I've set the handicapping parameters I want using QUICK DOG GREYHOUND HANDICAPPING SOFTWARE (still testing out the trial version).
Secondly, I've studied the possibilites. Thirdy, I've made some choices. After doing all the premilinaries, here's some greyhounds I like at Tucson and Phoenix for Tues. Aug. 8/06:

TUCSON:

Race 1 -- # 6 CARMEN'S MOO MOO

Race 3 -- # 4 MOCAN OLYMPUS


PHOENIX:

Race 1 -- # 3 COSTAR TARANTULA

Race 6 -- # 5 D'S BOZO

Race 10 -- # 4 LINCHPIN

Race 14 -- # 2 IMA JOSIE WHALES


T2W

[trying2win]

TUCSON:

Race 1 -- # 6 CARMEN'S MOO MOO

Race 3 -- # 4 MOCAN OLYMPUS

(ALL RACES CANCELLED ON TUES. AUG. 8/06 AT TUCSON)



PHOENIX:

Race 1 -- # 3 COSTAR TARANTULA .....Win...X ..... Place...X

Race 6 -- # 5 D'S BOZO.....................Win...X ..... Place...X

Race 10 -- # 4 LINCHPIN....................Win 19.20 Place 7.80

Race 14 -- # 2 IMA JOSIE WHALES.......Win...X......Place....X


T2W

[trying2win]

Continuing on with the use of the trial version of QUICK DOG GREYHOUND HANDICAPPING SOFTWARE, here's some greyhounds I like for Wed. Aug. 9/06 at Tucson and Phoenix:

TUCSON:

Race 6 -- # 3 DEARDORTHYHATEOZ

Race 9 -- # 6 KANE'S PATCHES

Race 10 -- # 3 RX JIM BEAM


PHOENIX:

Race 6 -- # 6 GLORYOSKI

Race 15 -- # 2 DEMELLO


T2W

[K9Pup]

TUCSON:

Race 6 -- # 3 DEARDORTHYHATEOZ

Race 9 -- # 6 KANE'S PATCHES

Race 10 -- # 3 RX JIM BEAM


T2W

If you watch these races at Tucson tonight make note of the win pools. I bet they aren't more than $100 total.

[traynor]

If you watch these races at Tucson tonight make note of the win pools. I bet they aren't more than $100 total.

And most of the "wins" with QUICK DOG GREYHOUND HANDICAPPING SOFTWARE (30 DAY FREE TRIAL VERSION or otherwise) are going to be on paper at tracks like Tucson. It is really odd, but I know about 20 full-time greyhound bettors, and not even one uses QUICK DOG. Even stranger, I have never heard a positive comment from anyone who used it over any extended period of time. Not even one.

Before you get distracted by what a great play Linchpin was, you might look at the program. Linchpin was one of two early speed entries. The other caused the wipe out of the competition at the first turn. Extract that entry from the equation, and Linchpin would have finished about fifth.
Good Luck

[trying2win]

TUCSON:

Race 6 -- # 3 DEARDORTHYHATEOZ..........Win......X......Place... ..X.....

Race 9 -- # 6 KANE'S PATCHES................Win...26.00...Place...11.20 ..

Race 10 -- # 3 RX JIM BEAM....................Win......X.....Place...... X.....


PHOENIX:

Race 6 -- # 6 GLORYOSKI.......................Win......X.....Pla ce.......X.....

Race 15 -- # 2 DEMELLO........................Win.......X....Plac e...16.40....


TWO DAY TOTALS...PLAYS...9...WINS...2...PLACES...3

PROFIT OR LOSS ...(Based on $2 Bets)...Win...+ 27.20...Place...+ 17.40

ROI...Win...151.1 %...Place...96.6 %


--NOTES:


1. Actually, just been betting to place so far....trying a conservative approach for now.

2. Anyone can get lucky for a day or two. The real test is yet to come. That is to see how latest system (with the help of the QUICK DOG ratings) holds up till my trial version expires on Aug.28/06.

2. If the positive trend continues during the trial of QUICK DOG software, then I'd be more encouraged to sign up for the annual subscription.


T2W

[K9Pup]

And most of the "wins" with QUICK DOG GREYHOUND HANDICAPPING SOFTWARE (30 DAY FREE TRIAL VERSION or otherwise) are going to be on paper at tracks like Tucson. It is really odd, but I know about 20 full-time greyhound bettors, and not even one uses QUICK DOG. Even stranger, I have never heard a positive comment from anyone who used it over any extended period of time. Not even one.

Before you get distracted by what a great play Linchpin was, you might look at the program. Linchpin was one of two early speed entries. The other caused the wipe out of the competition at the first turn. Extract that entry from the equation, and Linchpin would have finished about fifth.
Good Luck

I doubt "pros" use ANY commerical software, just like I doubt any pros pay for picks.

AFA his ES winner, that is what greyhound handicapping is about. Find that dog that leads at the 8th and you have a good chance to have the winner.

BTW - I don't have/use/promote QD, but for people who don't have the ability to write their own, it is probably the best around. Features exist that allow non-computer programmers to create their own handicapping methods. And the support of the product far exceeds any other out there.

[traynor]

I doubt "pros" use ANY commerical software, just like I doubt any pros pay for picks.

AFA his ES winner, that is what greyhound handicapping is about. Find that dog that leads at the 8th and you have a good chance to have the winner.

BTW - I don't have/use/promote QD, but for people who don't have the ability to write their own, it is probably the best around. Features exist that allow non-computer programmers to create their own handicapping methods. And the support of the product far exceeds any other out there.


You are about as wrong as it is possible to get in that area. What you consider "commercial software" may be the QUICK DOG genre of simplistic apps. They are not considered particularly useful. As for "paying for picks," you would be really surprised. It is usually the hobbyists and $2 bettors who think paying for selections is somehow "bad." Someone once said that the real difference between wealthy people and poor people is that the wealthy people can afford better information. Which may explain why they can afford it.

[traynor]

R02
999 4 Tk Camden
952 5 Atascocita Casey
928 6 Identity Theft
888 3Lucky Leroy

R04
913 8 Glb's Solitaire
910 1 Big Wonder
793 3 Jawa Abby
777 5 Penrose Delsey

R06
999 1 Jawa Dennis
980 7 Rooftop Mutt
902 3 Tempo Angelfire
843 6 Think Out Loud

R08
999 5 Kool Kovu
988 1 Daredevil Bonnie
939 2 Gotta Roll
854 4 Keethara

R09
999 2 Bohemian Botanya
992 4 Jt Oxbow Rick
873 6 C Blue Runner
811 1 Dolly Dear

R10
881 7 Hk's Sky Rocket
880 2 Fresh Glow
812 4 Wtd Party Girl
770 6 Sol Orlando

R11
999 3 Musical Mayhem
993 7 Super C Caution
980 6 Gail Lagro
945 2 Waytogo Billy

R12
999 5 Rj's Aries
783 4 Wtd The Hawk
731 8 Atascocita Mayor
716 7 hoy John W Troy

R13
999 7 Sandbox Buster
866 5 Treaddangerously
753 1 Switzler Blues
726 4 T's Basic

R14
999 1 Lostlands Czara
938 2 Kd Key West
872 4 Wtd Total Chaos
833 5 Yakahulahikydula

R15
999 6 Grixby
884 1 Pat C Image
846 5 Kebo Krystal
742 8 weet Shawnie
Good Luck;)

[traynor]

AFA his ES winner, that is what greyhound handicapping is about. Find that dog that leads at the 8th and you have a good chance to have the winner.


It's a bit more complex than that.
Good Luck

[K9Pup]

It's a bit more complex than that.
Good Luck

Sure it is, but that is a good start.

[traynor]

Sure it is, but that is a good start.

I agree. I have no idea why, but it seems that some people have the idea that greyhound racing is "simple," while horse racing is "complex." They are just different. Some of the sharpest professionals I know are hardcore greyhound bettors, and only bet on horse races when they are on "vacation." Especially in Australia and the UK, serious greyhound betting is considered a full-time endeavor (for anyone wanting to make a profit).
Good Luck

[trying2win]

I noticed at the LINK2BET site, that they give instaneous greyhound results as each race has been declared official. Unlike some other sites, where you have to wait till the whole card is over before they post them all. I don't think you have to be member to access the race results, because they don't ask for a user name and password for this feature. Just click on the BUILD-A-BET box and then click on the greyhound track you want. The next page shows the top 3 or 4 finishers in a race. Another click and you get the payoffs.


T2W

[K9Pup]

You can also click on the Pools Information in the left hand column of the Link2Bet home page to see results, realtime odds, etc.

[trying2win]

You can also click on the Pools Information in the left hand column of the Link2Bet home page to see results, realtime odds, etc.

K9PUP:

Thanks for the info. I didn't realize that.


T2W

[traynor]

R02
999 4 Tk Camden
952 5 Atascocita Casey
928 6 Identity Theft WON $26.20
888 3 Lucky Leroy

R04
913 8 Glb's Solitaire
910 1 Big Wonder
793 3 Jawa Abby
777 5 Penrose Delsey

R06
999 1 Jawa Dennis WON $6.00 3.40 PERF $18.00
980 7 Rooftop Mutt PLACE 3.20 TRI 53.40
902 3 Tempo Angelfire Fourth SUP 149.20
843 6 Think Out Loud SHOW

R08
999 5 Kool Kovu
988 1 Daredevil Bonnie
939 2 Gotta Roll
854 4 Keethara

R09
999 2 Bohemian Botanya
992 4 Jt Oxbow Rick WON $9.80
873 6 C Blue Runner
811 1 Dolly Dear

R10
881 7 Hk's Sky Rocket
880 2 Fresh Glow
812 4 Wtd Party Girl WON $13.60 7.00
770 6 Sol Orlando

R11
999 3 Musical Mayhem
993 7 Super C Caution
980 6 Gail Lagro WON $26.40 18.60
945 2 Waytogo Billy

R12
999 5 Rj's Aries
783 4 Wtd The Hawk
731 8 Atascocita Mayor
716 7 hoy John W Troy

R13
999 7 Sandbox Buster SHOW PERF $ 33.00
866 5 Treaddangerously PLACE 5.40 TRI 111.00
753 1 Switzler Blues WON $5.60 3.40
726 4 T's Basic

R14
999 1 Lostlands Czara SCRATCHED
938 2 Kd Key West WON $6.40 3.80
872 4 Wtd Total Chaos
833 5 Yakahulahikydula

R15
999 6 Grixby WON $10.60 4.40
884 1 Pat C Image
846 5 Kebo Krystal
742 8 weet Shawnie

For the horse type bettors who are hard wired into "picking the best horse," it may be a bit difficult to understand that greyhound betting is value driven, not win position driven. It is the betting that separates the amateurs and hobbyists from the professionals. Consider the result of mechanically betting ALL of the top three, in every race, to win. Consider the result of mechanically betting ANY of the top three going off at 5/1 or better.

Once you get out of the Tom Ainslie "pick the best horse in the race and only bet it to win" syndrome, making money betting on greyhounds is fairly easy.

[trying2win]

Here's some greyhounds I like for Thurs. Aug. 10/06 at TUCSON and PHOENIX:

TUCSON:

Race 1 -- # 6 GLS MEHNDAMASTER

Race 6 -- # 5 CARIBBEAN RULER

Race 12 -- # 5 BACK IN THE DAY


PHOENIX

Race 12 -- # 4 KAY V STARBURST

Race 13 -- # 5 S ELVIS


T2W

[trying2win]

Back to reality. A losing day.


TUCSON:

Race 1 -- # 6 GLS MEHNDAMASTER........Win.....X.....Place.....X....

Race 6 -- # 5 CARIBBEAN RULER............Win......X....Place....3.00..

Race 12 -- # 5 BACK IN THE DAY..........(SCRATCHED)



PHOENIX

Race 12 -- # 4 KAY V STARBURST.........Win.....X.....Place.....X..

Race 13 -- # 5 S ELVIS.......................Win.....X.....Place... ..X..


THREE DAY TOTALS...PLAYS...13...WINS...2...PLACES...4...

PROFIT OR LOSS...(Based on $2 Bets)...Win...+ 19.20...Place...+ 11.40

ROI...Win...73.8 %...Place...43.8 %


T2W

[trying2win]

This will be my second last attempt in this series of greyhound spot plays. Here's some greyhounds I like for Fri. Aug. 11/06 at TUCSON AND PHOENIX:


TUCSON

Race 8 -- # 4 MOHICAN BOONE

Race 9 -- # 5 KAY CEE SAMUEL

Race 12 -- # 4 BW'S SAHARA


PHOENIX

Race 7 -- # 5 FLEA'S PEUGEOUT

Race 9 -- # 5 RLM'S BUZZIE

Race 13 -- # 4 JOHNNY BAY

Race 16 -- # 6 BELLA RED RIDER

Race 17 -- # 5 TRINCHERA


T2W

[trying2win]

Unfortunately, another losing day. Starting to go downhill.

TUCSON

Race 8 -- # 4 MOHICAN BOONE..........Win.....X.....Place.....X.....

Race 9 -- # 5 KAY CEE SAMUEL..........Win.....X....Place....3.40...

Race 12 -- # 4 BW'S SAHARA.............Win...4.20..Place....2.60...


PHOENIX

Race 7 -- # 5 FLEA'S PEUGEOUT.........Win....X....Place.......X....

Race 9 -- # 5 RLM'S BUZZIE...............Win....X....Place.....4.80..

Race 13 -- # 4 JOHNNY BAY...............Win....X....Place.......X....

Race 16 -- # 6 BELLA RED RIDER.........Win....x....Place........X....

Race 17 -- # 5 TRINCHERA................(SCRATCHED)


FOUR DAY TOTALS...PLAYS...20...Wins...3...Places...7...

PROFIT OR LOSS (Based on $2 Bets)...Win...+ 9.40...Place...+ 8.20

ROI...Win...23.5 %...Place...+20.5 %


T2W

[traynor]

Unfortunately, another losing day. Starting to go downhill.
T2W

Welcome to the wonderful world of greyhound handicapping.;)

[traynor]

One of the sharpest greyhound handicappers ever, a retired Florida engineer named Robert Homberger, made a memorable comment in his book, "Dog Racing Investment System." The book was based on meticulously detailed analysis of 10,000 races that Homberger had handicapped by hand, recording every detail of every play. He said, "after 300 races, my numbers began to stabilize."

In plain English, that means that any sample of greyhound races of less than 500-600 races (and those races rated using exactly the same rating method, precisely and meticulously applied), can show almost anything except consistency. That is the reason why software applications have the facility for user adjustments; it lets you continually tweak the software in response to the last few races.

If you are going to test software, you might consider downloading a month or two of back races from Pico, then running a dozen tracks at once. That can easily generate 1000 races a week, and give you a much better idea of what results could be over time. Using the results of 20, 50, or even 200 races as the basis for decisions can be highly misleading. It sells lots of software, but it isn't much for betting.
Good Luck

[traynor]

12MAT, Palm Beach,R03,WIN,2,486,486
12MAT, Palm Beach,R06,WIN,3,251,251
12MAT, Palm Beach,R07,WIN,3,278,278
12MAT, Palm Beach,R12,WIN,6,341,341
12MAT, Palm Beach,R13,WIN,2,537,537

12EVE, Palm Beach,R05,WIN,5,716,716
12EVE, Palm Beach,R06,WIN,7,214,214
12EVE, Palm Beach,R12,WIN,1,236,236
12EVE, Palm Beach,R13,WIN,1,538,538
Good Luck;)

For the horse bettors unfamiliar with greyhounds, the model is WIN, the first number after the model is the key selection, the group of three digits that comes next is for quiniela and exacta combinations with the key, and the final three digits are for those adventurous types who prefer trifectas and even an occasional superfecta wager.

[K9Pup]

In plain English, that means that any sample of greyhound races of less than 500-600 races (and those races rated using exactly the same rating method, precisely and meticulously applied), can show almost anything except consistency. That is the reason why software applications have the facility for user adjustments; it lets you continually tweak the software in response to the last few races.
Good Luck

I agree. His sample here is WAY too small. T2W if you insist on using QD's supertuning I would suggest tuning against data DIFFERENT that what you backtest against. Take a year's worth of data and do your tuning on months 7-12. Then backtest against months 1-6 to get a better idea of how it will perform.

Although you show a profit over this small sample, hitting only 3 winners out of 20 races will usually not give very good results in the long run.

[Riley_Racer]

3. No human intervention to influence a greyhound race while its running. This is unlike thoroughbred races, where you don't know sometimes for example, if the horse you bet on is 'just out for the exercise' in a particular race. Or another example in the harness races, where some drivers might be perceived as 'playing some games' in a race.

T2W

T2W,

While it's running, yes. The only time I went to a dog track,
I was talking to a fellow while we were waiting for the gates
to open. When I mentioned to him about the "no-jockey-to-
influence-the-race" advantage, he mentioned three things a
trainer can do prevent a dog from winning, thereby driving up
the odds for a future win:

1. Giving the dog buttermilk to cause diarrhea,
2. Putting the dog in a swimming pool, to make him tired, and
3. Sandpapering his paws to make them tender.

He seemed to know more about dogs than I did :)

Riley

[traynor]

I agree. His sample here is WAY too small. T2W if you insist on using QD's supertuning I would suggest tuning against data DIFFERENT that what you backtest against. Take a year's worth of data and do your tuning on months 7-12. Then backtest against months 1-6 to get a better idea of how it will perform.

If thoroughbred handicappers took that advice, they would win a lot more and lose a lot less. Any time you develop a set of criteria using one set (preferably large) of races, then test it on another, completely different set of races, you have a much more accurate idea of what to expect.

Multiple tests, using something like a bootstrap analysis (a simple add-in for Excel, and standard on several free-trial or low-cost stat packages) that "slices" the sample into smaller subsamples for comparison purposes are also useful.
Good Luck

(The more specific term for "slicing" is "random sampling with replacement.")

[traynor]

T2W,

While it's running, yes. The only time I went to a dog track,
I was talking to a fellow while we were waiting for the gates
to open. When I mentioned to him about the "no-jockey-to-
influence-the-race" advantage, he mentioned three things a
trainer can do prevent a dog from winning, thereby driving up
the odds for a future win:

1. Giving the dog buttermilk to cause diarrhea,
2. Putting the dog in a swimming pool, to make him tired, and
3. Sandpapering his paws to make them tender.

He seemed to know more about dogs than I did :)

Riley


Over the years I have heard one or more of those excuses used for more losers than one would imagine possible. It is NEVER that the bettor just picked the wrong greyhound to bet--it is always buttermilk, sandpaper, or swimming pools that caused the loss. It may be that people who easily justify losses by blaming external circumstances are more attracted to betting on races than people who are willing to accept responsibility for their own decisions.;)

[K9Pup]

T2W,

While it's running, yes. The only time I went to a dog track,
I was talking to a fellow while we were waiting for the gates
to open. When I mentioned to him about the "no-jockey-to-
influence-the-race" advantage, he mentioned three things a
trainer can do prevent a dog from winning, thereby driving up
the odds for a future win:

1. Giving the dog buttermilk to cause diarrhea,
2. Putting the dog in a swimming pool, to make him tired, and
3. Sandpapering his paws to make them tender.

He seemed to know more about dogs than I did :)

Riley

The trainer really has little to gain by having their dog NOT win. They make money from points based on finishing 1-4.

[traynor]

12MAT, Palm Beach,R03,WIN,2,486,486
12MAT, Palm Beach,R06,WIN,3,251,251
12MAT, Palm Beach,R07,WIN,3,278,278
12MAT, Palm Beach,R12,WIN,6,341,341
12MAT, Palm Beach,R13,WIN,2,537,537

12EVE, Palm Beach,R05,WIN,5,716,716
12EVE, Palm Beach,R06,WIN,7,214,214
12EVE, Palm Beach,R12,WIN,1,236,236
12EVE, Palm Beach,R13,WIN,1,538,538
Good Luck;)

For the horse bettors unfamiliar with greyhounds, the model is WIN, the first number after the model is the key selection, the group of three digits that comes next is for quiniela and exacta combinations with the key, and the final three digits are for those adventurous types who prefer trifectas and even an occasional superfecta wager.

Matinee Results:
12MAT, Palm Beach,R03,WIN,2,486,486
#2 WON $8.80

12MAT, Palm Beach,R06,WIN,3,251,251
#3 WON $11.40 EXACTA 3-2 $21.40 TRIFECTA 3-2-1 $74.00

12MAT, Palm Beach,R07,WIN,3,278,278
OUT

12MAT, Palm Beach,R12,WIN,6,341,341
#6 WON $7.00 EXACTA 6-3 $22.00 TRIFECTA 6-3-1 $59.40
SUPERFECTA 6-3-1-5 $239.00

12MAT, Palm Beach,R13,WIN,2,537,537
#2 WON $5.40

Ask me why I don't use QUICK DOG GREYHOUND whatever.
Good Luck;)

[Riley_Racer]

traynor and K9Pup,

I take it the guy may have been one
who makes excuses for not winning?
Like I said, I knew next to nothing about
dogs and was an eager listener.

I still know next to nothing about greyhounds,
but would like to learn.

I started 'capping the horses in '89 or '90 and
threw 'it' all in the dumpster at one point. Now
I'm back with a vengence. Graduation day draws nigh!

Regards,
Riley

[Riley_Racer]

Matinee Results:
12MAT, Palm Beach,R03,WIN,2,486,486
#2 WON $8.80

12MAT, Palm Beach,R06,WIN,3,251,251
#3 WON $11.40 EXACTA 3-2 $21.40 TRIFECTA 3-2-1 $74.00

12MAT, Palm Beach,R07,WIN,3,278,278
OUT

12MAT, Palm Beach,R12,WIN,6,341,341
#6 WON $7.00 EXACTA 6-3 $22.00 TRIFECTA 6-3-1 $59.40
SUPERFECTA 6-3-1-5 $239.00

12MAT, Palm Beach,R13,WIN,2,537,537
#2 WON $5.40

Ask me why I don't use QUICK DOG GREYHOUND whatever.
Good Luck;)

traynor,

In the win catagory, I counted 6 of 14 for 43%, and
an ROI of + $0.64, correct?

Riley

[trying2win]

This is my final attempt on this series of greyhound spot plays. Here's some greyhounds I like for Sat. Aug. 12/06 at TUCSON and PHOENIX:


TUCSON

Race 5 -- # 5 FARISITA

Race 10 -- # 5 KID'S BARETTA

Race 11 -- # 3 ODD PHOEBE


PHOENIX

Race 1 -- # 4 BUBBLE GUM FEVER

Race 3 -- # 3 PEACETOTHENATION

Race 9 -- # 6 WHATSUP WEEZY

Race 11 -- # 3 USS VENTURA


T2W

[traynor]

12MAT, Palm Beach,R03,WIN,2,486,486
12MAT, Palm Beach,R06,WIN,3,251,251
12MAT, Palm Beach,R07,WIN,3,278,278
12MAT, Palm Beach,R12,WIN,6,341,341
12MAT, Palm Beach,R13,WIN,2,537,537

12EVE, Palm Beach,R05,WIN,5,716,716
12EVE, Palm Beach,R06,WIN,7,214,214
12EVE, Palm Beach,R12,WIN,1,236,236
12EVE, Palm Beach,R13,WIN,1,538,538
Good Luck;)

For the horse bettors unfamiliar with greyhounds, the model is WIN, the first number after the model is the key selection, the group of three digits that comes next is for quiniela and exacta combinations with the key, and the final three digits are for those adventurous types who prefer trifectas and even an occasional superfecta wager.


12EVE, Palm Beach,R05,WIN,5,716,716
#5 WON $14.40

12EVE, Palm Beach,R06,WIN,7,214,214
#7 PLACED by a nose OUT

12EVE, Palm Beach,R12,WIN,1,236,236
#1 WON $3.40

12EVE, Palm Beach,R13,WIN,1,538,538
#1 WON at $8.60
Good Luck;)

[traynor]

traynor,

In the win catagory, I counted 6 of 14 for 43%, and
an ROI of + $0.64, correct?

Riley

I don't have a clue where your numbers come from. I posted 9 races, 5 from the matinee and 4 from evening. Of those 9 races, 7 won. That is 77.77%. The return on those selections flat bet to win was $59. Minus $18 bet the net return is $41 profit. I have no idea where you get $0.64. So I would have to say "not correct."
Good Luck

[traynor]

traynor,

In the win catagory, I counted 6 of 14 for 43%, and
an ROI of + $0.64, correct?

Riley

I think I see where you might have been lead astray. "12MAT" refers to the matinee program only (howevermany races, 13 or 14). "12EVE" then refers to the evenng program. They are run almost as two separate days of races. I should have made that more clear.
Good Luck

[traynor]

traynor and K9Pup,
I take it the guy may have been one
who makes excuses for not winning?
Like I said, I knew next to nothing about
dogs and was an eager listener ... Riley

There is an overabundance of a quality called denial in racing fans. If they refuse to consider that it is their own lack of skill or inappropriate selections that are at cause, the natural tendency is to affix the blame elsewhere. It is no different in greyhound racing, thoroughbred racing, or harness racing. There are always "reasonably plausible excuses" for losing, while winning is ALWAYS the result of brilliant logic, intuitive insight, and natural intelligence.
Good Luck

[trying2win]

This last attempt at greyhound spot plays in this series was a disaster! Oh well, I didn't lose that much overall..


TUCSON:

Race 5 -- # 5 FARISISTA........................Win.....X.....Pla ce.....X.....

Race 10 --# 5 KID'S BARETTA..................Win.....X.....Place.....X .....

Race 11 -- # 3 ODD PHOEBE....................Win.....X.....Place..... X.....


PHOENIX

Race 1 -- # 4 BUBBLE GUM FEVER.............Win.....X.....Place.....X.....

Race 3 -- # 3 PEACETOTHENATION...........Win.....X.....Place.... .X.....

Race 9 -- # 6 WHATSUP WEEZY...............Win.....X.....Place.....X.....

Race 11 -- # 3 USS VENTURA..................Win.....X.....Place.....X .....


FIVE DAY TOTALS...PLAYS...27...Wins...3...Places...7...

PROFIT OR LOSS (Based on $2 Bets)...Win...- 4.60...Place...- 5.80...

ROI...Win...-8.5 %...Place...-10.7 %


NOTES:

1. Not giving up yet. Have been testing some other methods. The latest one is showing some promise in tests.

2. I expect the so-called 'expert' greyhound handicappers who've been infiltrating this thread of late, to come on here shortly suggesting that I 'should' do this...or I 'ought to' do that...or I 'must do' this in my greyhound handicapping. Nobody likes listening to braggers or pompous know-it-alls. Both types are annoying. I only listen to well-known, proven, long-term profitable handicappers, whether it be at thoroughbred, harness or greyhound racing. I just ignore the rest.

3. Greyhound handicapping is a real learning experience. It's challenging and lots of fun trying out the various 'what if' research scenarios.


T2W

[traynor]

2. I expect the so-called 'expert' greyhound handicappers who've been infiltrating this thread of late, to come on here shortly suggesting that I 'should' do this...or I 'ought to' do that...or I 'must do' this in my greyhound handicapping. Nobody likes listening to braggers or pompous know-it-alls. Both types are annoying. I only listen to well-known, proven, long-term profitable handicappers, whether it be at thoroughbred, harness or greyhound racing. I just ignore the rest.


I think you ought to quit your job, mortgage your house, and take up handicapping greyhounds as a full-time effort. Other than that, I don't have any other advice to give you.

[K9Pup]

Ask me why I don't use QUICK DOG GREYHOUND whatever.
Good Luck;)

LOL!! Seems like a pretty small sample here too. :)

[K9Pup]

traynor and K9Pup,

I take it the guy may have been one
who makes excuses for not winning?
Like I said, I knew next to nothing about
dogs and was an eager listener.

I still know next to nothing about greyhounds,
but would like to learn.

I started 'capping the horses in '89 or '90 and
threw 'it' all in the dumpster at one point. Now
I'm back with a vengence. Graduation day draws nigh!

Regards,
Riley
It IS technically possible for the trainers/handlers etc to do things to the dogs which impact how the dog runs that day. But in most cases they have a LOT more to gain by having their dog win than they do having their dog lose. Giving dogs "speed" or some other drug to IMPROVE their performance is more likely.

[K9Pup]

NOTES:


3. Greyhound handicapping is a real learning experience. It's challenging and lots of fun trying out the various 'what if' research scenarios.


T2W

Well you probably won't like my advice either. But I would just suggest you use a LOGICAL approach to greyhound handicapping. Since you do the horses I would expect you already use a similar approach there.

[traynor]

LOL!! Seems like a pretty small sample here too. :)

Yup, it is. But the model it is based on is rather large, and quite stable. If I posted other than immediate selections and immediate results, it would be considered "advertising," and that is not the intent. In case it is not apparent, the intent is to provide the opportunity for PA members to, a) possibly benefit from the selections, and, b) to realize that greyhound racing is almost boringly predictable over time. That is, the performance of greyhounds, because of the automatic grade advances for winners (among several other things) is predictable and consistent to a degree that many thoroughbred handicappers would find surprising, and that many harness handicappers would find very familiar.
Good Luck

[K9Pup]

b) to realize that greyhound racing is almost boringly predictable over time. That is, the performance of greyhounds, because of the automatic grade advances for winners (among several other things) is predictable and consistent to a degree that many thoroughbred handicappers would find surprising, and that many harness handicappers would find very familiar.
Good Luck

I'm not sure I would call something where we are right only 40% of the time is SO predictable. So you think greyhounds are more consistent than horses? Don't more favorites win in horse races than dogs?

[traynor]

I'm not sure I would call something where we are right only 40% of the time is SO predictable. So you think greyhounds are more consistent than horses? Don't more favorites win in horse races than dogs?

I would. Yes, I think greyhounds are far more predictable than thoroughbreds. The rate of winning favorites is something I have never found especially interesting, or relevant to handicapping. That is, knowing that x number of favorites win is a generic that has little specific value in individual races. If you have found some value in it, great. We never have.

That goes all the way back to various "selection" methods for greyhounds that were odds-based, including Fred Benner's "last minute, toss the favorite, box the next 3" schemes or variations thereof, and the various "statistics" that showed some relationship between odds and winning. We ran an "every which way" search on integrating odds into greyhound selection, using various databases with up to 52,000 races. To the best of my knowledge, it is a dead end street.

In this area, percentages are less important than return. There are certain race profiles that consistently win over 50%, but only return $0.80-0.90 because they are bet down so far.

Lastly, the overall rate of favorites winning is like Pareto; there are wild discrepancies between tracks, grades, distances, and times of year. (Think lots of sophisticated New York and New Jersey thoroughbred handicappers trying to show up the locals at Derby Lane.) If you lump all races together, the resulting figure may be precise, but not especially useful. That is opinion only, because we have never found a profitable relationship that can be applied, other than in retrospect, to show a profit. You may have. The possibility may exist, but not in the records or research we have studied.
Good Luck

[K9Pup]

I would. Yes, I think greyhounds are far more predictable than thoroughbreds. The rate of winning favorites is something I have never found especially interesting, or relevant to handicapping. That is, knowing that x number of favorites win is a generic that has little specific value in individual races. If you have found some value in it, great. We never have.



I've never found odds as a useful handicapping tool. I've just always heard that horse favorites win more often than dogs. So since the horse "crowd" is better at picking winners, I assumed they were a little easier to pick. Of course some of that might be from those 4-5 horse races. I DO know there is more readily available data for horses. But sometimes more doesn't mean better.

[traynor]

I've never found odds as a useful handicapping tool. I've just always heard that horse favorites win more often than dogs. So since the horse "crowd" is better at picking winners, I assumed they were a little easier to pick. Of course some of that might be from those 4-5 horse races. I DO know there is more readily available data for horses. But sometimes more doesn't mean better.

Because they can be entered in a wider variety of races, both thoroughbred and harness races tend to have races with an "overwhelming favorite," in the sense that one entry is substantially "better" than the other entries. That ups stats on favorites, without adding much to the pocket. You will see the same thing in the top grade races at greyhound tracks, with a limited number of dogs winning most of the races.

The closest I have seen to an odds model being useful is one that was part of a method developed by the "Mutuel Clerk," and published years ago in Phillips. It observed that many winners can be located by looking for the average of the lowest odds in two of the last six. The obvious flaw is in grade. We tried to tweak it around in a dozen different ways, including a multiplier by grade of the race in which the odds occurred, among others. It was "streaky"--sometimes spectacular results alternating with long losing streaks.
Good Luck