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douglasw32
06-30-2006, 06:26 AM
I got one- How do you handle LAST RACE WINNERS !

Many things written about, Big Wins, Time between etc...

How do all of you handle this one ?

Snag
06-30-2006, 08:56 AM
I will take a look at a winner last out unless the trouble line says "driving". Even with a lay off, those usually don't run back very well unless they are good stakes horses.


I heard one time that a winner last out returns to win again about 20% of the time.

Good luck.

Valuist
06-30-2006, 10:22 AM
I don't think there is a simple answer. What did the horse beat? Was it a weak or strong field for its level? Did the horse have an easy trip aided by the pace or a track bias? Did the horse lose ground on the turns? How much early speed did the horse have to face in its last race? Did the DRF comment say "driving" but your visual observations say the horse was ridden out or won handily? Was the figure earned in the win slower or faster than par for the level. So, there is no easy answer.

One thing is for sure: never discount a horse off a win because you assume a bounce. If you think a horse is a bounce candidate, I would take a look at the horse in the post parade to see if there's any signs of low energy or fitness levels, or soreness. Some of the best overlays that ever happen are horses coming off wins and being hiked in class.

GaryG
06-30-2006, 11:32 AM
As a subset, some trainers are almost automatic with last out maiden winners. This is especially true of lightly raced maiden claiming winners facing "two lifetime" conditions for a similar claiming tag. Peter Walder has won wit 7 of his last 15 last out maiden winners.

kenwoodallpromos
06-30-2006, 12:08 PM
Lost Rider 61 16.40% 2.23
Surged 95 21% 1.33
Dull Effort 207 8.70% 1.30
Bled 248 13.40% 1.18
Just Up 154 18.80% 1.11
Much Best 208 25.50% 1.1
Clipped Heels 81 13.60% 1.02
___________________-
JOKE- I usually redboard them!! :D

kitts
06-30-2006, 01:34 PM
I like cheap claimers so repeat winners there are almost always a throwout

cnollfan
06-30-2006, 01:58 PM
I like MSW route winners coming back in a NWX route allowance. They are often decent prices because of the obvious step-up, but they are proven at the distance.

I dislike NWX allowance winners stepping up to NW2X. They are often poor prices because of the textbook profile that good horses are supposed to win through their conditions with few snags on the way to running in stakes. But, most horses aren't that good, yet the crowd treats them all like they are.

I like N2L claiming winners stepping up to N3L claiming. They're in form and
often face a bunch of proven losers at the next level.

traveler
06-30-2006, 05:57 PM
I agree with Kitts, I play cheap tracks and they are usually throwouts. As an example, Race conditions you may see are NW1 in last 9 months. The horse is
3 for 18 lifetime and 2 of those are in the 10 PP you can see including the last race he won. You can quickly see he never won 2 in a row before, so why will he win today? Before I get jumped on, I know you have to see who he is running against today, the value as presented by the odds today etc., etc. but I need a reason to bet that horse. Also, if there are 4 who won their last in an 8 horse field, it is different than one last out winner in a 10 horse field. As in everything, no hard and fast rules but look twice. Good Luck.

Hosshead
06-30-2006, 06:05 PM
Try Starter Alw winners , when running next in another Starter Alw.

GaryG
06-30-2006, 06:20 PM
Try Starter Alw winners , when running next in another Starter Alw.Or going into a claimer with a higher claiming price....many times that is actually a drop in class.

Achilles
06-30-2006, 10:05 PM
I originally posted this about a year ago. You may be pleasantly surprised to see how often this situation comes up, especially if you are looking at lots of tracks. The example is from last year's Preakness result, and would have been applied to handicapping the Belmont Stakes.

Years ago Mark Cramer came up with an angle called the Double Advantage Winner, one who beat the third place horse by at least nine lengths, and the number of lengths separating second from third had to be greater than the lengths between first and second. AA beat ST by 5 lenths, ST beat Giacomo by 5-3/4, so AA qualifies. The logic is that the winner dominated the place horse, who in turn dominated the rest of the field. The winner could be viewed as being very sharp and ready for a class jump, often irrespective of whatever figure he may have run. Cramer used the angle to wager on maiden winners stepping up to A1X races and older claimers regaining form so that they can move back up the claiming ladder.

kenwoodallpromos
06-30-2006, 10:23 PM
Does the public odds on the horse next out inicate a repeat?

bigmack
07-01-2006, 12:08 AM
What the hell are you guys talking about?

When you look at a race you size the field on their current ability coming into the race amongst the competition.

If they won - or came in 12th has little bearing on the race at hand.

And the conditions folk of "I like" need to broaden your scope.

Tom
07-01-2006, 09:44 AM
In your opinion.....but not others.
From what I read, these people know what they are talking about.
Last out finish is part of the horse's ability.

HTRFGuy
07-01-2006, 11:31 AM
I got one- How do you handle LAST RACE WINNERS !

Many things written about, Big Wins, Time between etc...

How do all of you handle this one ?


<pre>1/17/2006: 1239 Races; 10000 Entries

Winners of Last Race (within 60 days) that return to Win.

IV ROI No.
Last Race
Winners

1.35 $ .89 1128 All

1.45 $ 1.03 519 Sprints Only
1.25 $ .78 609 Routes Only
1.35 $ .76 311 Turf Only


</pre>






Out of 1,239 races with 10,000 entries, 1,128 starters won in last start (just a little over 10% of all starters. 17% were repeat winners resulting in an ROI of $ .89 per $1. With impact values (IVs) ranging from 1.25 to 1.45, it seems to me that they are not automatic throw outs!

Tom
07-01-2006, 11:59 AM
Last out winners in stakes races probably repeat more often than last out maiden claiming winners coming back in allowance today - situational influences.
Know your track.

Overlay
07-01-2006, 12:19 PM
I don't have an automatic bias against betting last-out winners. It all depends on their chance of beating the competition they're facing today, and what odds they're being held at. For example, I like to see a maiden graduate who gets ignored in the betting in its next start because the public doesn't think it can repeat against previous winners (provided it's not attempting too big of a class jump), or because the hot jockey at the meeting is riding another horse in the race.

HTRFGuy
07-01-2006, 12:40 PM
Last out winners in stakes races probably repeat more often than last out maiden claiming winners coming back in allowance today - situational influences.
Know your track.

Absolutely, the IV is around .75 and they return $ .30 per $1!!

HTRFGuy
07-01-2006, 01:02 PM
Absolutely, the IV is around .75 and they return $ .30 per $1!!

Obviously, I am referring to Maiden Claiming winners, and not the stakes horses!

BlueShoe
07-01-2006, 11:58 PM
Last out winners have always been my prefered plays.The favorable running line that I look for is close up at every call as defined by Scott in his book of 25 years ago.Want them to get the lead at the stretch call and gain ground and win.These types often will step up and outrun their figures and defeat others with higher last out Beyers.You still,of course,have to do your handicapping,and determine if your candidate fits as to pace,distance,days away,track condition and so on.Finally,your repeater candidate could be placed too high and be simply outclassed by the opposition.Still,a fast easy winner with good pace and speed figures coming back quickly and stepping up in class is the best of all plays for this player.

eqitec
07-04-2006, 07:19 AM
My data corroborates nicely with HTRFGuy's, except the sample of winners is larger.
Out of 11354 winners in my database, here are the results for last races that were 50 days or less from the winning race:
Won Last - 1823 16%
2nd Last - 2019 17.7%

If I hadn't run the data, I would have thought there would be a greater difference between Won Last and 2nd Last.

In any case, that many winners can't be ignored, although I agree with the coments about each race being unique. If any factor, system, or software behaved like a toaster oven, where you push a button and up pops a winner, we'd be eating a lot of BLTs.

douglasw32
07-06-2006, 10:16 AM
NICE !!!! and that is the answer I was looking for ... VERY NICE thread, thanks.

horse1
07-06-2006, 11:39 AM
in stakes races, i like to think that a horse that has a win agianst graded company, in at least his second start in a form cycle, will be a horse to watch in the near future.

the horses run in cycles, and if you can get an older horse on a "good" cycle
and he is winning, he will continue to hit the board until something breaks his cycle.
ankle turn, bleeding episode, bout with a virus, and for some, shipping can break a cycle.
current horses on these types of cycles are, Lava man, Invasor, Brass hat was on cycle to they shipped him, now i'm not certain he will win again this year.
da stoops was on a good cycle, now off, needs rest. horses just peaking include, strong contender, showing up,bernardini. like now was on a good cycle, he will need two to asses where he is at now. horses off cycle that need rest, swwetnorthernsaint, bobandjohn, keyed entry.

its kinda the nowhorse principle, these animals are so fragile they are either in good form or resting for 6 months.

Lefty
07-06-2006, 02:13 PM
Depends on the figures and odds.

kenwoodallpromos
07-06-2006, 04:24 PM
What was Cigar's cycle again?

bigmack
07-06-2006, 05:31 PM
What was Cigar's cycle again?
I figured that he had about an 18% chance of winning after that Jan22 95 race.
http://www.drf.com/hcponline/samples/269.pdf

dav4463
07-08-2006, 03:51 AM
Last out winners have always been my prefered plays.The favorable running line that I look for is close up at every call as defined by Scott in his book of 25 years ago.Want them to get the lead at the stretch call and gain ground and win.These types often will step up and outrun their figures and defeat others with higher last out Beyers.You still,of course,have to do your handicapping,and determine if your candidate fits as to pace,distance,days away,track condition and so on.Finally,your repeater candidate could be placed too high and be simply outclassed by the opposition.Still,a fast easy winner with good pace and speed figures coming back quickly and stepping up in class is the best of all plays for this player.

Not only winners, but horses who ran good races and step up in class today are the types I look for at decent odds. A good race can also be speed and fade finishing way out of the money.

turfbar
07-11-2006, 08:34 AM
Didn't I read somewhere that trainers train thier horses for two races not just one.Seems as I recall Bobby Frankel said that?

Turfbar