Win Bets Only

[billk]

After 20 years of toying with horses and reading many boards, I am going to post to all a very Important fact in finding a winning horse. If you don't believe my input is worth taking, look back and Query your data bases or records. 75-80% of all winners go off at no more then 2 points above M/L odds at tracks where there is a competent odds maker. Myself I have also used or purchased a number of programs, methods etc guarrented. the best and have seen every one fail. You can't beat any form of "chance" when humans are envolved trying to make a buck. Watch the board and bet accordingly, big money,inside info knows more then we will ever know. By the way I Wager approx 60-80k a year but from what I see I am way off base on my theories of making a living playing. I have improved Ido at least break even, and next month I will post another tip. By the way at present I have over 25000 races in my data base to show this fact.

[JimG]

Who do you consider a "competent odds maker" and how many races are your statistics based on?

Jim

[billk]

Tracks where 70% or more winners are m/l below 13-1
ie 12 or less another fact that I know belive it or not a number are 6/1 or less m/l

[John]

BillK,
I believe you. The morning line as understand is a reflection of the general public [ that's me ] and more 1st 2nd and 3rd choices are won than the rest of the field. I like your thread. I find it very informative and would like to know more on your tips....

rocajack

[billk]

Thanks for your feed back I find morning line odds at a fair track are as much importance as off odds. I will relate one big payoff that was a result of someone at Turf Paridisebetting $20,000 to win on a horse that had little or no value. Being the Turkey that I can be I bet 5 to wps on all ther horses and made 776.00 on a 130.00 bet I belive the horse came in 5th out of a 5 or 6 horse field. Have'nt seen that ever again. I have a bunch of dumb things you should't do Ill post as time goes by.

[John]

Billk.
I have seen on many occasions a horse in the early betting drop to 1/2 or more the morning line odds and climb back up to 1 or 2 points over the M/L no more than 1 or 2 over and win. Is that information money or just the public betting ?

Good thread. My way of handicapping

rocajack

[billk]

I have seen and played horses that went over 10 pt m/l and won.
but it happens so rarely unless you have stats on the horse jockey trainer and feel you are absolutly correct. The bet is probably worthless over any long time investment. Remember we are trying to brake into a bank and use it as are own any chance bet is just that. 100% chance. It is hard as hell to pass a race when you know you have the horse stat wise and betting odds do not favor your play. Any reason you can find to pass a race PASS

[John]

Any reason you can find to pass a race PASS.


BillK, Very Good advice.....

[billk]

I am pleased some one is still awake at this hour I made my data base using primerly TB5 It is the only one I know that actually forms a HONEST workable data base I have used it since 1997.

[John]

Billk
You will have to wait for the brains on the board to talk to you about Data base. The only Data base I have is between my two ears . I listen and what ever I what stays there [ sometimes ]

what is TB5 ? a spreadsheet of some kind.

rocajack

[billk]

It is a program developed about 4 years ago using a Neural network I understand now free with a subscription to HDW I have used it since its development
and beta testing. It forms its own data base in acess leaving all stats in it. From it I can create a Racing form sheet or any other stat I can think of hence dumb stats asI just told you. The stats coming from HRW are as exact as any I have seen. No stupid numbers just facts and comparisons. Ranks for 100 factors. (I think) We have (Harry) and I have developed a number of programs to anaylize this info which at the present are not available except to him & I due to if any copywrite infringments. Beer time back in 30

[John]

BIllK,

I wish I could answer your last thread. I can't I know nothing about Data Base.

I have found out on my own that in MSW the odds go down on the winner from the morning line in a very high percentage of races. So high that it is possible to show a profit just waiting and betting on those races. { place betting is outstanding ]

Later I will talk about other tote findings. The rest of today is with my family

[Rick Ransom]

billk,

Which tracks don't have good morning line odds makers? Those are the ones I want to bet at, because actual odds seem to be heavily influenced by the morning line. I'll venture a guess that my local track, Turf Paradise, is one of them. I use morning line odds as my basis for whether a horse is an overlay and do just as well as if I used post time odds, but without all of the stress involved with trying to get a bet in at the last minute.

[smf]

Rick,

Lone Star has to be one of the worst. The m/l on a runner that everyone knows w/b the heavy fave will get assigned 7-2, 4-1 or somesuch while the likely 2nd choice w/b set at 6-1. They'll go off at 8-5 and 5-2 respectively. On horses that have good trainer angles, he'll set a line at 10-1 +, and they'll be hammered to 3-1.

Bad news is you can't take advantage of the 'angle' anymore b/c no one here pays attention to the m/l. It's not realistic.

Our morning line guy came from TUP; Chuck Badone. He's a good handicapper I'm told, just does a bad job of setting a line.

[Rick Ransom]

smf,

That probably explains why I've always thought of the Turf Paradise morning line as being bad. I played more races there a couple of years ago. Maybe he was there then. I've always gotten pretty good overlays here, but the pools were small. Simulcasting is bringing in more money these days, so maybe I'll get back in next time. We have a lot of tourists here, so the percentage of amateur money is high. You seem to have an amazingly high percentage of serious players in Texas considering that racing wasn't all that available until fairly recently.

Your info on Lone Star is very interesting though. Whenever I've done statistical studies of it, the morning line has always explained about 80% of the variance in actual odds. However I've only looked at it for major tracks, which usually have an excellent morning line. I always assumed that the public was mostly following the morning line in setting the odds, but at LS that appears not to be the case. Another possibility is that they are betting on last race speed, but I would think that speed would be a big part of any morning line. Maybe the public ain't so dumb after all!

[BMeadow]

In the May issue of Meadow's Racing Monthly, we surveyed 46 tracks with at least 2000 races to determine how accurate the morning line is. Virtually all were clustered around the same numbers for the morning-line favorite--a win rate of 26 to 32 percent, an an ROI of 0.77-0.85 per dollar bet.

The best win percentage went to Hollywood Park (34.% wins) while the best ROI went to Ellis Park (0.87 ROI).

Because of the way morning lines are made--conservatively, so that a horse the linemaker thinks will be 8-5 is actually listed at 5-2, for instance--most winners are at or below the morning line. This has nothing to do with "inside money" or any other factors.

[Rick Ransom]

My favorite track of all time, Longacres, used to have a low percentage of winning favorites (about 26%). I never checked the morning line, but it probably was low too. I really miss that track. I caught 6 winners straight there one day and the average price was about $10. Early speed was king there. Ah, the good old days!

[John]

Barry,

Thanks for sharing your May report with us. I understand now how BillK got such a high percentage on the M/L winners.

B.Meadow wrote:

Because of the way morning lines are made--conservatively, so that a horse the linemaker thinks will be 8-5 is actually listed at 5-2, for instance--most winners are at or below the morning line. This has nothing to do with "inside money" or any other factors

[Rick Ransom]

Barry,

I've seen some studies that showed morning line 2nd choices to do better on ROI than any other choice. Have you done or seen anything on this? It seems logical enough. When you're at a track or race book you frequently hear people talking about "overlays" when the favorite's actual odds are higher than the morning line odds. So they might overbet the morning line favorite and ignore the 2nd favorite. Or, it might be another incorrect conclusion drawn from a small sample.

[John]

Rick,

If you get a hold of Larry; He is into that kind of data base findings..........Larry might have the answer for you.