handicapping history discussion

[Slider]

It is a quite time on the board so how about we discuss the history of handicapping? Maybe it will assist our current day handicapping. It would be best to do it from ancient times to the present.
For instance How did the Romans handicap the chariot races? Anyone old enough to remember? lol Maybe we can have a little fun doing it also. Is it true quarter horse racing came from the cowboys in the old west? If you have a story or theory or just something funny this is a good to post it since things are quiet.
Somebody start us off. All are invited.

[BIG HIT]

hi guys only thing about raceing history that amazeing to me is 50 year ago the % of winning favorites was about 33% and it still about the same today and they did not have computers or all the info we have today which tell me they got more out of a raceing fourm with less info in it which say alot for them.And says we are dummer than dirt LOL really though cant help wondering how that be and if they would have done better with all the aids we have or maybe all handicapping is wrong thier was a article in american turf monthly by dave barrios called a new perspective on handicapping on that subject. Was very interesting but a little to deep for me

[Observer]

I'd say the Romans didn't handicap. They just all got together thinking their horse and chariot were best, and threw money into a pot or "purse" and the winner took all.
;)

As for favorites winning consistently through the years at a 33% clip, well, maybe the apparent "best horse" is only up to winning 33% of the time, and the other 66% he's feeling a little off in some way. Afterall, there certainly are tons of excuses out there, many of them legit. Besides, who feels at their peak 100% of the time?

While the best horse may be feeling a bit off in some sense, someone else may be feeling like they could conquer all. So, there's the upset.

Plus, through the years, the general racing public is using the same general information for their handicapping needs. As the standard of the racing public's information changes, the playing field still remains level because the vast majority is still looking at the same things, so most everyone is still coming up with the same answers.

The trick is to somehow find the vulnerable favorites and capitalize. But the main thing is, keep this treasure a secret!! Let the majority of the public have their 33% win rate on favorites ... it's a decent winning rate, no doubt ... but tough to turn a profit.

:D

[Slider]

If we were in the stands watching the chariot races and gladiators, would we refrain from gambling? Not me. I would bet on the chariot on the inside and bet a lot if it had shown a quick start and early speed in previous races. That is post position handicapping along with a touch of pace handicapping. The chariot on the inside that can pull away will be hard to catch on all those tight turns.
OK enough of ancient history.
My earliest memory of handicapping was reading what the newspaper consensus had along with each of their handicappers picks. Of course I was about 10 years old at the time. My dad used to read the racing form and look for the class horse. He never did tell me what the hay class was. Still do not know for sure.
What are your earlier memory of handicapping?

[smf]

Here's my original handicapping method.>> I went to OP once a year in the 80's. We didn't have racing here until 1997. Didn't know a darn thing, really. I added the drf speed rtg + variant; and did it wrong all those years!

Bet the same every race-- two bucks to win. Sad thing is I knew as much as 90% of the people in the grandstand. Handicapping has come a ways since then.

[smf]

Methinks the Romans bet on the grey horses on a muddy strip!

No doubt Andrus Beyer had many a book out on the incidious nature of the Roman racing scene. (he had to pay for his betting habit you see, and books sold quite well to bettors in those days).

Inconsistent biases, drugs and the ever present clocking abnormalities at 'Lion Downs' in Sicily would fuel his energy force to enlighten the Chariot Handicappers distrust of the Empire. Rumor has it he even punched his hand thru a scroll when his 3-5 shot was dq'd. In his 45th book (My Most Dreadful Year at the Races) young Andrus exaggerated the punch a bit to read that he indeed punched his fist thru a 3' thick stone wall. His unwavering and loyal following of fig players believed him of course.

Here's my original handicapping method.>> I went to OP once a year in the 80's. We didn't have racing here until 1997. Didn't know a darn thing, really. I added the drf speed rtg + variant; and did it wrong all those years!

Bet the same every race-- two bucks to win. Sad thing is I knew as much as 90% of the people in the grandstand. Handicapping has come a ways since then.

[Slider]

LOL ------- lol

Very good smf
That is well done. Liked the Andrus naming especially.
I am still chuckling.

By the way, did you leave the "ur" out the middle of your nickname? <G>

[smf]

Slider,

Nah, but I've been called MUCH worse than 'smurf', lol. SMF are my initials. When you get to be my age, initials are about the only thing that you don't forget on a regular basis.

[Tom]

I remember some race track history:

There used to be a season-a start and end to a season
with a break in between. There were days with no racing.

There used to be no off-track betting-only on-track.

There used to to be people at the track-many people.
You had to get there early to get a seat.

There used to be such things as an "8" horse in more than one race.

The program used to cost $0.50 and it fit into your back pocket.

Andy Beyer was struggling with high school math and
no one had access to speed figures like now. But I had mine and double digit stand outs were frequent.

No one was talking about pace and Finger Lakes ran early every race. Every day. And double digit lone speed horses were frequent.

There were only a handful of horses with the right dossage to win the Derby and they all were longshots.
Now every horse has the dossage. And everyone knows it. And everyone denies it works.

There were harness tracks all over the place, and they had full fields and they didn't all pay 4-5. I could drive to
10-14 tracks in less than a day. I could hit six tracks over a weekend.

The Morning Telegraph cost a buck-and we were complaining.

The big thrill was waiting for the next Tom Ainsle book come out.

I thought that those were the golden years-now I know that the golden years means you go the bathroom six times a night.

Oh well,
It was fun reminiscing.
Good idea for a thread.

Tom

[Lefty]

Favorites, I believe, will always win about 30 to 33%
because public looking for best last race and all the pluses. Problem this type lots of times has peaked and
ready to regress.

[ceejay]

Steve Crist recently discussed the old Dowst system (c. 1930's) in his SW column. It looks at class, weight, and form factors. Though not chariot races, some factors can still be applied today.

[Gary Geigercounter]

Methinks the Romans bet on the grey horses on a muddy strip!

No doubt Andrus Beyer had many a book out on the incidious nature of the Roman racing scene. (he had to pay for his betting habit you see, and books sold quite well to bettors in those days).

Inconsistent biases, drugs and the ever present clocking abnormalities at 'Lion Downs' in Sicily would fuel his energy force to enlighten the Chariot Handicappers distrust of the Empire. Rumor has it he even punched his hand thru a scroll when his 3-5 shot was dq'd. In his 45th book (My Most Dreadful Year at the Races) young Andrus exaggerated the punch a bit to read that he indeed punched his fist thru a 3' thick stone wall. His unwavering and loyal following of fig players believed him of course.

...

Do you guys hand out awards for posts? (Paceys? We used to hand out Primeys at Baseball Primer.) That post cracked me up.

Yes, I read the archives.

[twindouble]

I'd say the Romans didn't handicap. They just all got together thinking their horse and chariot were best, and threw money into a pot or "purse" and the winner took all. Quote Observer;
;)

The Romans took their chariot racing more seriously than we do, in most some cases it was a life or death race. They wanted to know everything about their competition, how other horses are trained, cared for, fed, you name it. The also, knew what horses would battle on or shy or if they had a tendency to go wide, were better in tight or the lead horses would tire. They had their wise guys in the stands that bet heavy on that information. They would also went to the extent of sabotaging the competition's. Sound familiar? My source is The History Cannel.

[Tom]

How fast did the Roman horses run?

XIV.IV for 6!

:lol:

[46zilzal]

here are histories of some of the earliest English races.
http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Notes/EarlyRaces1650-1700.htm

Also the English used to barter on horses and to keep what they were offering and/or accepting or rejecting, the two sides would hide their negotiation UNDER their cap, so "hand in the cap" was the way that bartering was described.

Bookies were JUST about the only way to be until the French perfume salesman Ollier made up the Paris Mutuel (parimutuel system)

[Overlay]

Methinks the Romans bet on the grey horses on a muddy strip!

No doubt Andrus Beyer had many a book out on the incidious nature of the Roman racing scene. (he had to pay for his betting habit you see, and books sold quite well to bettors in those days).

Inconsistent biases, drugs and the ever present clocking abnormalities at 'Lion Downs' in Sicily would fuel his energy force to enlighten the Chariot Handicappers distrust of the Empire. Rumor has it he even punched his hand thru a scroll when his 3-5 shot was dq'd. In his 45th book (My Most Dreadful Year at the Races) young Andrus exaggerated the punch a bit to read that he indeed punched his fist thru a 3' thick stone wall. His unwavering and loyal following of fig players believed him of course.

Is it true that archaeological excavations of those racing sites have uncovered the phrase "Rex mundi sum" ("I'm king of the world") scrawled on the walls of the public baths?

[46zilzal]

In England Mr. Richard Tattersall, a horse auctioneer, opened a subscription room where members paid an annual fee to lay wagers and settle bets. Disputes arose which were adjudicated by an appointed groups of men called the Tattersall Committe. After a time, the ring where men met was referred to as the Tattersalls. This is a term still used in English racing today.

Later a new type of betting appeared (referred in the literature as "legs") They developed a principle of laying bets a different odds on every horse in the race. This process was called "making the rounds." Eventaully, the legs began recording wagers and the phrase "making a book" was first used.

In North America another form of wagering became popular after the Civil War. This was the auction pool. To form a "pool" a "betting interest" in each horse was auctioned to the higherst bidder. Like today, the horse with the greatest chance of winning drew the largest bid. The auctioneer received a commission from the pool and the balance was given to the race horse owner. The problem was that the bettor never knew the odds until after the pools were auctioned off. The demand by fans wishing to have a pre-determined price for their bets led to the emergence of bookmakers after the Civil War.

Parimutuel wagering started with the French perfume salesman, Pierre Ollier. He was critical of the large commission bookmakers skimmed off each pool and reasoned that the fairest way would be one in which the odds would be set by the ratio of money bet on one horse compared to the money bet on all the horses in the race. The established "mutual" wagering. By taking only a 5% commission, bettors were guaranteed tath 95% of the money wagered would be returned to them. By 1877 parimutuel machines were installed in all the major tracks but they were both slow and unreliable and as a result bookies once again came into favor.

In 1908, Col Matt Winn (of Kentucky Derby fame) used old parimutuel machines to get around a Louisvlle city ordinance against bookmaking. With improving machines this concept spread until the last bookmakers were legislated out of existence, at least legally, in New York in 1941.

The early machines could not PRINT totes on demand so they were printed up for each race beforehand and delivered in big racks. These were used for a long time and were about the size of the smaller daily double tickets of the 60's. Each had a unique code that the seller could compare against the test totes they retained for comparison when the bettor collected on his wager.

The revolution in totaliser tickets took place in 1927 as the brainchild of Mr. Harry Strauss. He reasoned that it would be quicker and more accurate to have each wager printed at the time of the wager. It would be less costly than printing up a large quantity of totes that may or may not be sold. He founded American Totalisator which produced the first printed totes at Arlington Park June 2, 1933.

[toetoe]

I have the Eohippus right here. Thus spake Bubbulus.

Stephen Boyd was a definite bet-against when he match-raced with Charlton Heston. He was horsing, what with Charlton being so cute and all. His final desperate efffort to yank Charlton's reins was rebuffed, and as he lay dying on the track, he heard these furlong-flung words: "From my cold, dead hands, Stephen. Too bad you didn't play your cards right. You otherwise might survive to play Frank Fain in 'The Oscar.'"

Many things befell Charlton's charger. This was but one funny thing that happened on his way into form.

[46zilzal]

in the chariot race sequence, one of the stunt men actually was run over and died. Hear tell that the studio had to get permission from the widow to keep that bit in the movie.

[toetoe]

HORRIBLE! :eek:

[JackS]

Theory but probably true. Cowponys evolved into quarter horses. Teenage farmers sons raced their favorite horse against other farmer sons. Wild and incorigable hotrodders of the day. I wonder how many actually bet the farm? Probably none but their fathers may have . Could this be the origin of this famous quote?

[dav4463]

in the chariot race sequence, one of the stunt men actually was run over and died. Hear tell that the studio had to get permission from the widow to keep that bit in the movie.

http://www.snopes.com/movies/films/benhur.htm

[andicap]

You can't talk about horse racing betting -- or any other for that matter -- with talking about Pittsburgh Phil. Many of his mottos and much of his advice still holds up 100 years later.
The one I remember is about never talking a lady to the racetrack if you are betting seriously. He said, wisely, that a man cannot attend to a women's needs and attention and still pay keen attention to that's happening on the track.

I never won when I was single and took a date to the track.

(Of course back then I didn't win so much the rest of the time )

[Wiley]

I never won when I was single and took a date to the track.


Dates to the track were some of my best winning days! In Phil's defense not many of the dates worked out that great, must have been tending to the track too much. :D

[46zilzal]

another urban legend down the drain.

[Valuist]

The downfall of Roman racing? When Venice and Sicily got slots. Their purses skyrocketed and the top horseman all left. Early use of medications was prevalent, which the Italians referred to as spaghetti-ing.

[betchatoo]

And when the Borgias medicated a horse, it stayed medicated.

[kenwoodallpromos]

In England did they ever have .3 meter racehorses?